Place betting system

[Kim]

Has anyone got any place betting system ideas they are willing to share either here or via email?

Thanks
Kim

[mr magic]

Best place betting system is NEVER BET PLACE. If you don't think they'll win, why back them. If you do think they'll win, why take crappy dividends.

[Kim]

Mr Magic, thanks for your opinion. Not all punters thou are blessed with the ability to find winners and are more than happy with CRAPPY DIVS. Better than LOSING.

[astroboy]

On 2002-04-06 14:35, mr magic wrote:
Best place betting system is NEVER BET PLACE. If you don't think they'll win, why back them. If you do think they'll win, why take crappy dividends.

(Crappy returns ???) Hmmmm me thinks any return would beat that offered currently by the Commonwealth bank on investment. Who said they have to win, it is after all a 'Place' method. Any investment of money that shows a return is to be encouraged. I do not understand why you consider this a bad thing ? :smile:

[Kim]

Thanks Zeldon100 for the support. Each person has a different comfort level with punting. Mine is place betting.The higher strike rate due to three chances rather than one and less runs of outs.

Kim

[Kim]

Does anyone on the forum successfully punt for the place? Are you willing to share with us any small bits of info which may help. What you do, what you use, how long it takes you, how many bets you have etc.

Thanks
Kim

[marylin]

Hi, I am pretty new at this game, got involved because i got caught up in a scam run by a mob known as New Technologies Corporation.
I have done my own bit of research on TAB numbers and come up with the following.( i followed 15 consecutive race meetings, wherever they were)
TAB numbers 1 and 2 each had a strike rate of 40%, meaning TAB Nos 1 or 2 ran a place in 80% of races. TAB Nos 3 @ 4 each placed 31% of races and No 5 30% and No 6 26%.
Taking it further, the top weights have a better strike rate at the better meetings, ie major tracks.
I then picked No 2 to follow and if i took out maidens , hurdles, 2 YO, and races where No 2 was not remotely in the market, i could get a strike rate of up to 76%.
What i am searching for now is a staking plan that will allow me to follow all No 2 TAB Nos and see how it performs on paper.
Does anybody know how a good staking plan works?. If anybody has a look at this idea i would appreciate some feedback.

[EachWayAllDay]

Hi there

A very basic staking plan would be 10% of your bank...i.e bank $1000.00

First Bet $100.00 - loses - Bank $900.00
Second " $90.00 - loses - Bank $810.00
Third $81.00 - wins - Bank $1150.00
Fourth $115.00 etc, etc

[Bhagwan]

BHAGWAN PLACE STAKING PLAN
Heres a staking plan that can work.

The idea is to bet the same amount on each selection until a place getter gets up.

You then increase the bet by the same amount until the next place getter gets up, & so on .
Once in profit after the 1st. increase,start again.
It works a treat ,but at the end of the day ,you have to be able to pull some place getters.

E.g. 5L-5L-5L-5L-5P@$1.90-10L-10P@$1.80-15@$2.00-20@$1.70

Outlay was $80.00 Return $91.50
Profit $11.05 14.3% Profit on turnover Strike rate was only 4 out of 9 = 44% for the place .

So you can see the potential ,even at moderate odds & strike rate.

[marylin]

Thanks for the info guys, much appreciated

[Placegetter]

I've only just joined this forum and was delighted to see this topic on the list.

I only bet for a place. I also expect a 100% strike rate (it's around 93% over past six months).

I was one of the "mugs" that backed Sunline for a place in the all aged. That's how certain my bets can be. She got 10% on nswtab, money back on unitab. I was walking to the collect office before the race even jumped.

The only way to bet places is to have a system and FOLLOW it. I come up with about 2 selections a week around MR, BR and SR. It doesn't really matter what your system is (you will know when you are making paying selections).

By the way, if my selection pays $1.50 I feel like I've won the lottery. This is no way to get rich quick.

Pretty boring I know, but I play with the TAB's money, not mine.

[puntz]

75/25
$75.00 for place, $25.00 for win

Marylin,

Your figures are incorrect.
Just because nos 1 and 2 place 40% of the time doesn't mean you can add those together for 80%.

What if half of the time both 1 and 2 place in the same race? Then combined they place in 60% of races.

Its better to look at it like this:
60% of the time no 1 doesn't place
60% of the time no 2 doesn't place.
therefore .6* 0.6 = 36% of the time neither 1 or 2 place. Thus 64% of the time either 1 or 2 or both runs a place.
You need to test the data on at least 500 races for reliable figures.

[marylin]

Thanks for your input Gun Punter. I can see where you are comming from. Mathematically speaking 1 @ 2 do place 80% of the time, whether in the same race or not. That is why i am of the opinion that only the top weight or the 2nd top weight should be considered and when you take out the maidens, hurdles, wet track duffers, etc you can get a reasonable strike rate. I trialled this theory over 15 race days which involved approx 450 races.
The thing that i am looking at i guess,(still an apprentice at this game) is does the handicapper get the best horses at the top weights the majority of the time.
Look forward to your thoughts.

[EachWayAllDay]

Perhaps the handicapper gets the best CREDENTIALLED horse at the top most of the time but not necessarily the BEST horse (on the day).

If I were betting on numbers 1 & 2, I think I'd wait until there was a run of say 3 races where one or both of your numbers were unplaced then start to bet. I'd also be betting only on handicaps & welters and considering them only if they featured in the top 5 average prizemoney winners. Being drawn reasonably well would be another factor to consider....you don't want a top weight trapped 4 wide. Another thing...I'd rule a line straight through any wet tracks.

[Mr. Logic]

This sounds to me very similar to those roulette systems which don't work - wait till five blacks haven't come in a row and then start betting black.

[EachWayAllDay]

Gee, that's not a very logical analogy for somebody who calls themselves "Mr Logic" is it?

For what it's worth, I'd never back numbers personally and that includes fools games like roulette.

I was simply trying to assist the lady in applying her thoughts to their best advantage. Sorry that you didn't like it! But as the saying goes "you can please some of the people some of the time....."

[becareful]

Marilyn, betting based on TAB number is a sure way to lose your money - regardless of what "staking plan" you use. I had a quick look at the data I have for 2001 (it is not quite complete but pretty accurate) and the results for no. 2 are as follows. There were 11175 races (only gallops - no trots/greys) where no 2 started. No 2 finished a place in 4255 of these. If you bet $10 on each race you would have finished the year $15320 DOWN. Excluding wet tracks, etc, improves it a bit but you would still lose consistantly. For No 1 the numbers are 11013 races, 4499 places and $19300 LOSS.

[marylin]

I didn't want to start a fight, i appreciate all the input,
Thanks

[supersoul]

Maylin
Do not mind the "sentimental" postings!

You have to look at plenty of stats to make up your mind, and be current. I was/am still interested in barrier numbers.

If you knew nothing about racing, and just played the draw numbers, you could conceivably make money!

It is just difficult for punters working hard to "legitemately" determine form and all relevant factors, and still sometimes lose money, to accept some people only play stats and make as much(or more) money...

I realize that the stats could be just as hard to follow and use to get to "winners"!

Good luck!

[Bhagwan]

If you could treat TAB Nos.1&2 as a 2 horse race maybe backing the one with the best place % or highest average prize money.

If you were good at splitting these Nos. you would make a good profit at place punting seeing one of these 2 gets up approx. 80% of the time.
I feel it`s important to try & only bet your selection only when it`s paying $1.50 or more, otherwise ,no bet that race . This is when the discipline thing comes into it.

[marylin]

Thanks for the info, it is all good stuff.
and Bhagwan i am starting to agree with you on the $1.50 price but i come unstuck every now and then when UNI TAB on sky has a horse at $1.70 and after the race closes it suddenly becomes $1.30. Thats the TAB i guess

[Bhagwan]

If you want a good sauce of placegetters , check out the Qld. TAB site http://www.tabq.com.au
& back the 100pts.in races with 8+ runners(no bet if duel 100pts.) its srike rate is around 68%
Its best to stop betting at each particular race meeting once you strike 3 place getters at that particular meeting .
This helps reduce the dredded run of outs on that meeting because its easier to get 3 place getters & stop, out of 8 races rather than 8 place getters out 8 at the same venue.

If you use that staking plan I`ve mentioned in previous post , I beleive you can make a profit .
Give it a dry run first & with TAB Qld. you can easily go back over hundreds of previous races.

Its the best TAB site in the universe.
That`s my opinion and I agree with it.

[becareful]

This fascination certain people have with "strike rates" never ceases to amaze me. The strike rate by itself is absolutely meaningless - one of the most successful punters I know has a strike rate of less than 5% but consistantly makes a profit as he is betting solely on quinellas & trifectas. I could easily give you a betting strategy that would give you a strike rate of 85-90% but it will still lose money. What you need to look at is the strike rate AND the average dividend OF THE WINNING BETS together (some promotors of systems will quote a Strike Rate and an average closing price of all bets - this is also meaningless). For example a strike rate of 5% with average dividend paid of $25 is a good strategy - strike rate of 70% with dividend of $1.20 is bad! As to B's suggestion of 100 pointers I am not sure where he gets his 68% strike rate from - I looked at the actual data for last 4 months and the strike rate for 100 pointers in race meetings is almost exactly 50% with an average dividend of $1.70 (this gives a return of 85% which is right on the average place return of all horses).

[Privateer]

Thanks, becareful. I'll gratefully accept your offer of the 85 - 90% strategy.

Privateer

[marylin]

Thanks for your thoughts Becareful, i think i am a long way off multiples.
I would love to have a look at your 85% to 90% to compare with what i have currently.

[becareful]

OK Privateer - how about place bet on any horse who has a place estimate price on NSW of 1.04 and on Unitab of less than $1.30 (at jump time). Over last 4 months you would have a strike rate of 85%. Betting on Unitab you would have a return of 94% so you would still be losing money. Like I said the strike rate is MEANINGLESS unless you also know what the average dividend is.

[Privateer]

Gee, took you a while to work that one out!

Incidentally, Marylin also asked so why address your reply to me?

[becareful]

It didn't take long at all to work it out (I didnt see your reply until about 4pm) - the reason I addressed it to you is that Marilyn had not posted her message when I started to write the reply - I was writing it in between placing bets and looking after my kids - so it took me half an hour to finish it off.

BTW - I am not trying to offend anybody here - I just want to point out that strike rate by itself is meaningless. Personally I generally bet on horses paying from $8 to $15 dollars so if I finish day with a 10% strike rate I am usually smiling :smile: Today I am 5 winners from 42 bets so it has been a very good day.

[Placegetter]

Today I am 5 winners from 42 bets so it has been a very good day.


I've asked this question before and I'm going to keep asking it until someone gives me an answer. What staking plan are you using to get a "good day" out of this type of return.

You say that strike rate is meaningless, but if you are betting more than 3% of your bank straight out, the 5 out of 42 potentially sends you broke. Come on guys, stop talking around the subject don't quote figures if you won't back them up.

[Mr. Logic]

Betting flat 3% of bank can send one broke backing horses. It's only a loss of 33 betting units - and is likely statistically to occur at some stage just through an extended period of bad luck.

5/42 winners - nothing wrong with that if backing longshots. But if you are looking at a long term 10% strike rate even betting 1% of bank is very risky.

[Placegetter]

Which of course still doesn't answer my question. I don't believe it is possible, I'll leave it at that.

[becareful]

My "staking plan" is quite simple - I never bet more than 2% of my current pool (sometimes I bet less - depends on win pool size for the race, etc). This means if I have a losing streak my bet size decreases until I start winning when it increases. In theory this means I could have a losing streak of 100 bets and still have 25% of my pool remaining - in practice my longest losing streak without any winners has been about 18. I generally make a profit 3 out of 5 days and my average profit is larger than my average loss - hence I am currently making a profit overall (so far - touch wood)

As I said before the important thing is to work out a system that gives you a positive return based on an even bet size, you should never use a system that requires you to increase your bet when you are losing (as Bhagwan has suggested).

For yesterday my 5 winning bets payed 14.60, 12.40, 12.50, 9.30 and 8.40 so if I had been using a constant $20 bet I would have got $1144 in divs for $880 in bets placed (I ended the day with 44 bets, 5 winners).

As I mentioned previously the most successful punter I know only bets Quinella/Trifectas with a correspondingly low strike rate (I don't know exactly but it is definitely less than 5%) - he makes a consistant profit (well into the 6-figure per year). Of course he has bad and good weeks/months but the secret is to have a system that works in the long run and size your bets according to the expected strike rate and your available pool.

[becareful]

I should add that the type of bets you place and the strike rate you want probably depends a lot on what your goals are. If you are just punting for fun then going for place bets with a high strike rate is probably a good idea - you will get the "winning feeling" a lot more often and your potential losses are kept smaller. There is nothing more frustrating than having a string of your $10 winners finish 2nd or 3rd (the other day I had 4 2nd places in a row - 2 of them photos before I hit a winner).


Personally my ultimate goal is to be able to become a professional punter and therefore I am looking to generate a substantial income in the long term. All the professional punters I know of either place win bets or a combination of win/quinella/trifecta bets (occassionally a few each ways) - I don't know of anyone making a living out of place betting only (of course that doesn't mean it is not possible - you would just have to be extremely good at picking the place getters).

[becareful]

Tulloch - like I said it depends on what your goals are. If you are punting for fun then 28 bets a year is probably good (you will certainly never go broke) but you are never going to make enough to retire on either.

[croft]

If Tulloch is winning 73% of the time, as long as he is careful placing his money around the country then I'm sure he makes enough money from those 28 bets to have a reasonable living from it.
I would love to know your technique because group races are some of the hardest to pick, although they often throw up good priced winners.

[Placegetter]

You are all going nowhere fast and you dont even know it. less is PLENTY..tulloch


Tulloch, you're the same guy who told us on November 11th how to bet on trifectas and then on 23rd February that trifecta bets were for mugs.

If we're going nowhere, you must be coming with us. You probably think I'm out of line, but let's keep it a learning forum.

Example, the answer you gave on how to measure 1 second in lengths was outstanding. It helped me a lot.

Happy punting.

[becareful]

There is another interesting contradiction in Tulloch's Nov 11 post - in that one he stated he bets Trifectas in 30 oz races and 21 NZ races a year - now is is betting 25 NZ races and 2 OZ races. So what happened to the other 28 OZ races???? Could it be that you are going backwards as well???

[Placegetter]

I admire your honesty tulloch......and I'm guessing you did just fine last year given you picked both Ethereal and Northerly as stars of the spring. I can't wait for the cox plate this year, Viscount will be a year better and can't have the same luck again (I hope).

Placegetter

PS. try http://www.ebay.com.au for the Don Scott book, they had his "Winning in the 90's" book just recently, went for $35AUD or so.

[mr magic]

Placegetter,
I'll give you 500's Viscount ... he's retired.

[Placegetter]

Michael Jordan "retired" :smile:

Okay fair enough, I'll have to look elsewhere. Thanks.