NBL - Round 6 Schedule

[knowledge]

The other thread was actually about round 5.

Monday, November 1, 2004
Match (Home v Away) Venue Time TV
Wildcats v Crocodiles Challenge Stadium - Perth 07:40PM AWST

Wednesday, November 3, 2004
Match (Home v Away) Venue Time TV
Kings v 36ers Sydney Entertainment Centre 07:40PM AEST

Friday, November 5, 2004
Match (Home v Away) Venue Time TV
Hawks v Taipans WIN Entertainment Centre - Wollongong 07:40PM AEST
Razorbacks v Bullets Sydney Olympic Park Sports Centre 07:40PM AEST

Saturday, November 6, 2004
Match (Home v Away) Venue Time TV
Pirates v Hawks Newcastle Entertainment Centre 07:40PM AEST
Wildcats v 36ers Challenge Stadium - Perth 07:40PM AWST
Crocodiles v Tigers Townsville Entertainment Centre 06:40PM AEST
Bullets v Taipans Brisbane Convention Centre 07:00PM AEST
Breakers v Kings Trusts Stadium - Waitakere 07:40PM NZDT
----------------------------------------------------

I'll be banking on Perth tomorrow.

Other winners look like...
Kings
Hawks
Razorbacks
Hawks
Wildcats
Crocodiles
Breakers

Did daylight savings get reapplied today?

[thebookie]

Yeah mate it did.

Trap for young players-I thought it was tomorrow!!!

[Fernando]

I agree, the wildcats are likely winners tonight. The crocs have lost last 4 games and the wildcats have lost last 2. One will turn it around tonight, and i do like the wildcats there away wins got me off to a good start.

The 36ers are looking alright at the moment. But they are yet to play big teams and have had 4 straight home games coming into this vs. the kings. It will be interesting to see how they go ans what odds the books give.

[thebookie]

Tonight's line is around 5 or 6.

I like Rillie and Calvary-if Tucker has an off night, don't be surprised if the Crocs get close...

I'm not a big wrap for Perth, but, it is a long way from Townsville to Perth.

Anyhoo, I just think they have a chance...

[thebookie]

Although I did back them up there cos i knew Tucker was out-and they got belted!!!

So, in other words-I have no idea hahaha

[Fernando]

yes the crocs should be albe to keep up with the wildcats and could get in a position to pose a threat at the finish. I liked them @ $3.80 when they were playing the hawks.

The wildcats also have other good shooters, the 5 top players a game are +40%.
R.Brown didnt play for the crocs the last time these two met aswel when the wildcats won away.
I think if the wildcats come out to play they can kill anything. I should note im not having a bet, im siting out untill i get more results.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Fernando on 2004-11-01 18:08 ]</font>

[knowledge]

short odds for the wildcats tonight but I think they will win so I'm backing them outright.

[thebookie]

OK, I think I've stuffed up the std dev here, but, on tonight Wildcats-Crocs game, I have the following :

Pr <208.5 = 0.62 or $1.60

Suggestion here is to bet the <208.5 at the $1.90

Also only able to find 2 years worth of stats, but, it's all a learning experience, so, we'll just see how we go!

[knowledge]

117 to 111, Wildcats win.

Yet another team fails to cover the spread. I think there's a lot of profit to be made in backing + handicaps on all games.

We'll see on Wednesday when Kings play the 36ers. I doubt Kings will cover the spread.

[Fernando]

What are the two years you have the nbl stats for bookie. I only have this season and im half way though the last.

The wildcats shot at 61% and 3's at 45% last night, unstopable. Tucker missed the game with a knee problem, the cats also have injurie woes about Ellis and Grace. It will be handy to know to team to play the 36ers next. With the 36ers being away the odds could be good.

Nice going with the +208.5 total, have you had much luck with those in the past.

I wouldnt like to go blindly into + handicaps on all games without some past statistics. Do you know where to get past lines from last season and now.

[Fernando]

Just had a hunt and found that http://www.tabonline.com.au/ has every betting option archived and winners from 2002.

[thebookie]

HAHAHA thanks mate, but, I was on the UNDERS!!! So, shows what I know! But, the Crocs did cover...

I just got the stats off the NBL site. You used to be able to get heaps more stats-the NBL site is shithouse this year!

I'm sure I've stuffed the std dev though, so, it's probably not right. I have a man in Pth that let me know Tucker was out last time, but, I got nothing for last night :sad: Will see what info I can get for their next game on Sat...

Stick with the + mate, forget the -

I think we need to factor in travel and time between games somehow too...

[Fernando]

Those symbols have triped me up before. I should know them, but it wouldnt of hurt last night.

I have my doubts if travel distance is a factor, whats another hour or two in a plane. Time between games needs to be looked at.

[thebookie]

I don't think I'm gonna have time to do tonight's stats, but, I'll see how I go-I think I've worked out that Std Dev thing though.

Anyway, any thought's on tonight's game. Adelaide look some chance with Maher, Rychart and Farley on fire!

I'll try and find out what's happening with Burston, Tucker etc in the next day or two. We might be better off hoping the 36ers lose tonight and waiting for them against Perth on Sat night...

[thebookie]

Apparently Green and Wheeler are out for the Kings.

[thebookie]

I fancy Adel at the + now.

The 36ers have a 10-9 record against Syd in Syd, but, have lost the last 5 in a row. Although the Kings are a vastly different outfit now...

[Fernando]

This game will be a interesting one, it might give a good indication for the future of these teams.
The 36ers have put some good numbers up vs. some "softer" teams to start this season. With 1 away win to the breakers and one loss away to the crocdiles by 3.

I dont know much about Wheeler and Green apart from there low points and averages, they could play a large part within the game im not sure. Thats something to look at, key positions where the game is affected most when player missing.

I might wait. +4 is not a very big gap for $1.90 , if any bet im thinking of of backing a 36er win @ $2.75, 1 or 1/2 unit

[sparkus8]

Hey guys new to this forum, lots of great info.

If anyone has access to a NSW TAB account you might want to think of backing Dusty Rychart as the top scorer in this pool of 4 players.

Rychart $3
Sanford $3.15
Bruton $3.50
Holmes $5.25

I reckon the $3 is great value as sydney is already a small team and now they will be without wheeler and green, so I can see Rychart seeing plenty of the ball tonight without too much opposition.

[Fernando]

Thats a good point, teams do look for other players to step up when someone is missing.

if you can pause on that bet tho because i think Rychart plays for the 36ers and Wheeler and Green are both kings

[Fernando]

No wait after re reading your post again i get the point you were making. The court could open up for Rychart with wheeler and green missing. It could work the other way aswel . the kings team may turn to single players to take up the slack.

[knowledge]

I think Willie Farley will be tonight's top scorer. When he's in form he can fire them in from anywhere.

[knowledge]

must have been a major betting plunge on the 36ers, the price went from $1.40 to $1.60 within 10 minutes. Line also dropped from 6.5 to 5.5 and price went from $1.85 to $1.72.

Steve Carfino has tipped the 36ers...

will it be their day?

score is 22-16 to Sydney.

live scores on NBL.com right now. It's also being showed live on Fox Sports 1.

Will Farley hasn't disappointed me so far. Very strong player.

[thebookie]

Did you see that missed dunk??? DOH :sad:

15 down now! SHIT!!!

[sparkus8]

On 2004-11-03 19:17, Fernando wrote:
No wait after re reading your post again i get the point you were making. The court could open up for Rychart with wheeler and green missing. It could work the other way aswel . the kings team may turn to single players to take up the slack.





I thought that as well, but in recent weeks the kings have been going to either Smith or Knight, unfortunately for me right now they seem to going to CJ!!

[knowledge]

damnit.. the line is being ripped to shreds.

[thebookie]

I can't stand Carfino or Bruton!!! Get Off!!!

[sparkus8]

I only got home in time to see the 2nd half, but from what I have seen it seems as though the 36ers have played straight into the kings hands by making it a shootout. They dont look like they have used their size advantage to well.

You are right about Carfino and Bruton, they are brutal!!

[thebookie]

14pt loss-I obviously know nothing about basketballl...well, that is until Saturday when I back the sixers against the Cats!!! :wink:

Yeah, it was just run, run, run! Twits! Goorjian is THE supercoach...

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: thebookie on 2004-11-03 21:23 ]</font>

[sparkus8]

I thought the 36ers were a chance near the end of the 3rd quarter when they cut it to 12, but for some reason Smythe left a couple of his stars on the bench and the Kings kicked the lead out again.

[thebookie]

Yeah, me too...but, I think it was just wishful thinking! :wink:

[thebookie]

OK

Burston is out for the season.

Tucker is being re-assessed tomorrow-likely to have surgery though, at this stage.

Don't know about the others yet...

[Fernando]

The kings had better defence and out gunned the 36ers, ill be looking closer at the 36ers and wildcats stats when i get more time tonight.

Next game for the kings is away to the breakers. If they repeat anything close to last night they should win. Odds may be around $1.60 for the win.

[Beljulian]

Burston and Tucker aren't having surgery.

[thebookie]

Are you in Perth mate?

I'm from Melbourne, but, I'm pretty confident about my source in Perth.

[knowledge]

Over 189.5 pts looks a good option tonight.

Also Wollongong to cover the spread. Usually when they win they win emphatically.

[thebookie]

Bullets 93-88

[thebookie]

Hawks 99-84

183 total

[knowledge]

damn only 183 pts.. at least they covered the spread

[thebookie]

I have some time on my hands today, so, I'll do some stats on the Totals for tonight's games.

On face value, I think Townsville are a risk, the Bullets, Hawks & Kings should all win, but, will be short and I haven't heard anymore about the Perth players as yet.

[Fernando]

I didnt expect these odds. The best i have found are Wildcats $1.80 and 36ers $2.14. I was thinking maybe $2.50 for the 36ers, the gate keepers must of thought the 36ers letting in 122 vs the Kings rounded off with the Wildcats suspected injuries.

[knowledge]

Wollongong ($1.42 at my agency) a good price to beat Hunter in my opinion. Wollongong are perhaps the best team at the moment and Hunter are perhaps the worst.

[thebookie]

Mate, they're $1.52 at Sportodds and SportsAcumen.

[knowledge]

1.52.. that's much better. Oh well.

which is the better bet, do you think, Hawks or Kings?

[thebookie]

I'm not really sure mate. I think they might be two pretty tight games, because both the Kings and Hawks have played already this round, while their opponents have had a week to plan for them.

From memory the Breakers beat the Kings in NZ at the start of the year and there was some sort of fracas or something at the end? Maybe a ref's decision? Goorijan going mental? Something like that?

Even without Rucker, I think Brisbane should beat Cairns, but, they're 3's on.

[knowledge]

oh I didn't realise Brisbane were playing against Cairns this weekend. That will be my bet then. When Cairns plays away from home my advice is to back the other team til the cows come home. :grin:

They're on something like a 14 away losing streak. Haven't won an away game this whole year, including last season!

Both teams played away games yesterday, Bullets beat Pigs by 5 pts, Taipans lost to Hawks by 15. I'd say Bullets are a LOCK to win. After a poor start to the season bullets are playing some good basketball now. That's where my money is going.

[thebookie]

I've done some stats on the Total scores, but, there's no value anywhere so far :sad:

[thebookie]

Why is it whenever I bet against a team with a key player out, the team I back plays like crap?!?!?!

The Tigers are going shithouse!!!

[thefan]

I think knowledge has great knowledge so I'll back hard bullets for a win. Half time bullets down by a little.Hope they bounce back in second half.

[knowledge]

yep Bullets losing 40-37 at the moment. I'm sure they can come back.

Surprisingly Hawks are being beaten by Pirates by 10 pts. I was considering backing them as well.. :grin:

if Bullets don't win then I am NEVER betting on NBL again. They have absolutely no excuse to lose.

[thebookie]

The Tigers are going to lose by 30-worst performance ever...

[knowledge]

yeh tigers playing like crap. just like Henman a few nights ago.

[thebookie]

Looks like I'm gonna have to back Adelaide now

[thebookie]

This is the WORST performance I have ever seen-disgraceful!

[knowledge]

I wouldn't advise backing Adelaide. Perth are very good at home, despite losing big to Wollongong. but you may be right. :smile:

[thebookie]

Wollongong just lost to Hunter...

[thefan]

Are there any good live scores sites besides sportstab and nbl.com.au

[thebookie]

Aaah what the hell would I know?!?!?!

I wish I could find out about Tucker, Burston, Grace and Ellis for sure!

[thefan]

Bullets and Cairns. Looks like an even game going on here. No outright winners at the moment. Brissy falling behind 3 points throughout the game

[knowledge]

anyone know where the brisbane game is upto? NBL.com says 77-82. What stage is the game in?

f-ck i can't afford to lose this.

seriously, losing at home to Cairns is the worst thing a team can do.

[thebookie]

7:51 to go final quarter

[thefan]

My luck is bad or what. I picked a bad night to back sports. Comon Bullets.

Anyway Hawks losing to Hunter. Didnt see that coming and not to mention Tigers getting thrashed big time.

[thefan]

81-91 cairns.

3 mins to go.

damn what a bad night.

[knowledge]

if I lose this bet you will never see me contribute to betting on this sport again. There comes a time where you sometimes reach the end of the line and have to cut your losses and seek new ventures. That is what I will do if Brisbane don't prove how over-rated they are... YET AGAIN.

[knowledge]

yep..
what a f*cking bad night.
Can't believe it.

fare well, NBL.

[thebookie]

You're not gonna wanna hear this, but, Cairns by 12 3:11 to go

[thefan]

Rule number 1 for me. Never accept tips anymore. I should do my own research. damn... Its all over. Cairns win I guss. Not a bad price,if i had freaking backed it.

[thefan]

everybody dont back adelaide tonight cuz im backing it. Itll be a loser. I backed 4 losing bets tonight

[thefan]

96-105

Cairns win, omg any word on this. i lost a shit load tonight

[thebookie]

The only thing I can say is that the Tigers are the worst team I have seen in a long time...

[thefan]

u lost too ay. Ive lost like 10 big bets in a row. It always happens to me cuz I won big and somehow even though I back on short odds it slowly eats away at that profit. Well thats how my gambling life is like.

[knowledge]

well like I said, this is the last NBL bet I'll ever make. I just lost all my funds so I can't bet on soccer now which I'm positive I would've won money on.

if you want to make your money back I advise you all bet on Chelsea to win tonight. Though I understand if I'm not too popular right now.

[sportznut]

Brisbane are just HOPELESS at the moment, and I know why they're going so bad. I backed them pre season to win the whole thing!

I'd backed the Kings the last two seasons with success, but all the 'experts' said the Kings would fail dismally this year and that Brisbane were the team to beat. I know which team I'd rather have my money on now! :roll:

[thebookie]

I think a lot of it has to do with the coach-Goorjian is the King!

Knowledge, hope I didn't tip you into Brisbane-I know you were looking at the Kings and Hawks too...

Don't worry, what sort of judge am I? I thought the Tigers had a chance-they were absolutely disgraceful!!!

[thefan]

I did stop with the big bets for like a fortnight.im not backing nbl ever again. I know shit about it.Ill stick with Rugby league.

Lets see i still got funds, its not fun losing. Im still ahead in profit long term. Ill stop for the time being cuz looks like an nbl disaster strike just like soccer a week back

[knowledge]

alright man, but I want you to make some more money.. so if you're interested...

back Chelsea ($1.40) AND/OR Juventus ($1.50) AND/OR Arsenal ($1.40).

my 3 big tips.

[Beljulian]

thebookie,

Might be a bit late getting back to you now but as I said before Burston and Tucker both will not be having surgery, for the time being at least.

Perth Wildcats 108-101 Adelaide 36ers :grin:
Tucker with 18 and Burston 9pts.
http://www.nbl.com.au/boxscore/popup.aspx?id=264

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Beljulian on 2004-11-07 04:53 ]</font>

[thebookie]

Yeah BJ bit late, but, not to worry-I backed Tigers and 36ers. Both losers! I think I might put NBL in the too hard basket for a while, although there's obviously plenty of value there if you CAN find a winner.

[sportznut]

Where's Goldmember when you need him? He's great with the NBL.

[Beljulian]

Burston is now out.