The fan says......

[thefan]

I'll post my picks and see how my returns fair.

Bank $1000

Bets:

Tennis (Stepanek)/Hanescu $1.40
$150 possible collect $210

[thebookie]

I'm with you champ, but, did you know Stepanek twisted his ankle yesterday?

[knowledge]

I'd bet $1000 on Stepanek to get the bank started off well, early on. :razz:

Good selection and good luck for the rest!

[thebookie]

Let's hope Hanescu "tanks" it...

[thefan]

Current bank $850
Soccer
(Leeds) vs Burnley $1.95
Bet $150
Return $292.50

v hehe i know

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: thefan on 2004-11-03 21:59 ]</font>

[knowledge]

<font color=yellow>Bet $15
Return $292.50<font color=black>

:eek: introduce me to your bookie!!!

(i know you meant 150)

[Mr ed]

I put $500 on Vijay Singh to beat Micelson h/h at $1.60 for first round of Tour Championship. Dont know much about golf but hearing about Singh's incredible year it seemed terrific odds for a two horse race. I dont even know when they play if anyone knows could they post the result when it occurs.

Cheers ED

[knowledge]

mr ed since you bet $500 on him I'll have a small bet too. :grin:

i think he plays at 10.30 EST tomorrow.

[thebookie]

knowledge, you're a thrashing machine!!! :smile:

Vijay tees off 12.55 local time

[thebookie]

Game Set Match Stepanek

Good work guys. :smile:

[moeee]

On 2004-11-03 22:26, Mr ed wrote:
I put $500 on Vijay Singh to beat Micelson h/h at $1.60 for first round of Tour Championship. Dont know much about golf but hearing about Singh's incredible year it seemed terrific odds for a two horse race. I dont even know when they play if anyone knows could they post the result when it occurs.

Cheers ED


I find it incomprehensible that anyone could be so loose with $500.
I would have stayed up all night studying the form before I invested any where near that amount!
What's it like to be RICH Mr Ed?

[Mr J]

On 2004-11-03 22:26, Mr ed wrote:
I put $500 on Vijay Singh to beat Micelson h/h at $1.60 for first round of Tour Championship. Dont know much about golf but hearing about Singh's incredible year it seemed terrific odds for a two horse race. I dont even know when they play if anyone knows could they post the result when it occurs.

Cheers ED


Ok I hate to be negative, but you made your bet based on that you have heard Vijay has had a great year. You don't think the bookies would know much more than this? Not saying you bet on the right or wrong guy, but it doesn't sound like it was an informed bet.

[sportznut]

Mr Ed, I agree with the other guys that it is a very casual and flippant way to bet. You're just lucky that Vijay's playing so well, you will probably win the bet. By the way, it starts tonight and the first round will finish tomorrow morning.

The fact of the matter is that Vijay Singh is in incredibly consistent form. 6 wins and 2 2nds in his last 8 USPGA tournaments I believe. He also has great form on THIS course with a win, a 2nd and a 3rd. And that was when he wasn't playing nearly as well as he is now. If the bet was for Singh to beat Mickelson over the whole 4 rounds, I think $1.60 is a steal. However, the bet is for Singh to beat Mickelson in the FIRST round and anything can happen in one round.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-11-04 14:59 ]</font>

[Mr ed]

When i saw the odds i did get carried away and probably over bet considering my knowledge about the sport. However i don't think anyone can dispute the fact Vijay is in better form then Mickelson. Anything can happen in a round of golf just as anything can happen in a horse race however i would have no hesitiation backing $1.60 on a two horse race if one clearly stood out with better form. As for the bookies knowing better then i do, of course, and they have him favourite i just hope their right.

[thefan]

Tennis (Stepanek)/Hanescu $1.40
$150 possible collect $210 WINNER

Current Bank $910
1 win
1 lost
profit -$80

TENNIS
Lopez vs (Pavel) $1.90
BET $200
COLLECT $380

Canas vs (Haas)$1.80
BET $100
COLLECT $180

[Mr J]

If he was great value, all the more to the Vijay backers for punishing books too lazy to put up an accurate line :wink:

[Mr ed]

Up 1 shot with 4 holes left. Go Vijay.

[sportznut]

1 hole to go, two the difference, so I think you're safe.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-11-05 08:39 ]</font>

[Floydyboy]

Mr J I respect your knowledge of sports betting ,odds ,overs, markets but please no more golf you are out of your league apart from say woods previously and ill even concede at the moment VJ no players win week in week out and the bookies have as much Idea as to the end result as you or I hence the large odds ,Say what you want quote facts and figures even todays result if vj comes out on top . Ive played golf since I was a teen played off 9 and currently13(only socially these days) ANd im telling you there are too many variables and some. so please dont even come at the argument from the bookies angle no offence meant but you are out of your depth in this argument

[Floydyboy]

I will concede that in your first thread that this wasnt an informed bet... few are though...if I was forced to have a bet I probably would have gone the other way just for a bit of value a 1 or 2 stroke victory over 18 holes is really too close to be a 1.60 chance

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-11-05 08:36 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Well, he ended up beating Mickelson by two.

I personally would never have this sort of bet, because anything can happen in just one round. However, if I WAS to back one of the two players it would definitely have been Vijay. He's simply playing far too well to ignore. In the form he's in and with his form on this course, he simply has to be the man to beat again this week.

[Floydyboy]

Without any facts and figures to back me up it has just seemed to me that when someone at the top of there game and winning regularly in individual sports their form seems to drop off when they get tangled up with a woman or married maybe its just my imagination .poor old tigers form has certainly gone off the boil . I think his greatest attribute was his mental strength driving his ability ....but if you got other things on your mind it well lessen your ability to focus in the tunnel so to speak

[Mr ed]

Perhaps he's focusing to hard on the Tunnel Flodyboy.

Vijay is a rock solid player, playing better golf then anyone in the world. I cant see how it is Flippant or foolish to bet on the best, most consistent player to beat someone in nowhere near as hot a form. Especially as they were teeing off at the same time so weather had nothing to do with the result.

[sportznut]

Well, I think you know more about Golf than you previously let on. From your earlier post, it appeared to us that all you knew about Golf was that some bloke called Vijay Singh seemed to be winning a lot lately, so you decided to throw a lazy 500 on him.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-11-05 09:27 ]</font>

[Mr ed]

No way! I pride myself as being a punter not a gambler. When i say heard i mean looking at results as i do not watch the sport. I do not know much about the game, such as good amatuers or up and coming players but when you keep seeing the one name on top of the leaderboard it is hard to ignore.

[Floydyboy]

Ha ha yep the tunnel could certainly be the prob and the split with the coach could have been to do with the seemingly unrelated effect of the tunnel
...... And apart from tiger i cant remember seeing any one in such rare form as Vj
My point being though it only takes two or three puts to missed by a hair or a degree or two off the tee catch a branch drop behind a tree drop a stroke or two and your outa d contenst
Im a bit like sportz I prefer the top 5 finish..... but hey nice pick up on todays win

[sportznut]

Well, I don't get to watch much of it either, but I still like to follow it. I've done well lately simply backing Vijay to finish in the top 5 every single week he plays in the US (not Europe) and he doesn't let me down. His run must come to an end soon you would think, but I'll still be ahead when it does.

[Mr J]

Floydboy read my posts again. I was never making an arguement that Vijay was a bad bet. All I was saying is that when you spot what looks to be a great bet based off widely available info, chances are it's not really a good bet at all. In this case it just looks like the bookies were too lazy to post an accurate line.

Mr Ed, a punter IS a gambler. Punter = gambler who bets on sports.

Also "when you keep seeing the one name on top of the leaderboard it is hard to ignore."

That's the sort of thing I'm talking about. Plenty of people could tell you who's in great form, it's widely available information. You won't usually get profitable bets from widely available info.

[Floydyboy]

Yes I stand corrected and I do appologise with the words IF he was great value escaping my view...often things slip past the one brain cell that Ive got left ....So we are in agreement .......cheers

[Floydyboy]

What do you call an accurate line sorry im not bein funny but what is accurate ...
after the event when the result comes in ?
Thats what I was talking about before to an extent To my way of thinking yes Vjs in form Mickleson not thems the facts ......
I dont believe they can set an accurate market especially with that calibre of player...
Two strokes at the end of the day is over 1 round is nothing ... there not too lazy they really only have an opinion and unlike a lot of other events I believe it is less informed this sort of match up is closer to an even bet with a small advantage to Singh I believe this even after the result

[Floydyboy]

AND I dont even like Mickleson he learches around with that silly grin on his melon ...
That is bitchy isnt it Im not usually like that but he does annoy me . although it wouldnt influence me to bet or bet aginst him though

[Mr J]

The things I know about betting on golf:

Offers huge opportunities.
Offers huge variance.

And that's about it, so it's pretty safe I'm not gonna pretend to know all about it :wink:

An accurate line is just where the bookies are pretty close to the mark, neither side has much value if any at all.

Vijay was a $1.60??? That means the bookies thought he had about a 62.5% chance of winning (we'll pretend that's their 'fair' price). Just wondering what %s you guys would assign to this matchup?

[Floydyboy]

well IMHO
I would say in that situation
Singh with a 5-10 % advantage over mickleson and a tie

[Mr ed]

What i meant from the punter, gambler comment was that i don't just bet on pot luck and chance i look at available info and make a decision dont just pick red or black. If thats not the Oxford definition i apologise. In retrospect it's easy but you could say Vijay looked a 2 in 3 chance of winning and probaly a 3 in 4 chance of drawing or winning IMO.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Mr ed on 2004-11-05 16:02 ]</font>

[Floydyboy]

What ever assessment we make is an individual thing
but the main thing is ya GOT THE CHOKKIES
Onya champ keep the winners comin

[Mr J]

punter, gambler, same thing. Gamblers/punters rely on luck to win. If skill is what determines whether you profit longterm or not, then you aren't really a gambler/punter.

[sportznut]

Well, Vijay's had a bad day today and he's slipped down the leaderboard a bit. Phil Mickelson actually beat him by a shot in today's round. It just shows the difficulty of picking the result of just one round. Perhaps Vijay's great run could have come to an end. By the way, Tiger has had a GREAT 2nd round to be right in contention.

[Floydyboy]

The Defence Rests

[Floydyboy]

Final Round
VJ ...-5
Micl..+4