Dog Data Required....

[BJ]

Was wondering if somebody with the abilities could help.
What I am after is winning percentages of dogs under $10 in home state of betting. (Im thinking about 80%). Also under $9 down through to $2 if at all possible.
Probably don't need to explain but any dog under the price that wins is 1 win regardless of how many under the price that didn't win in that race.
Also, if somebody could help with the average number of dogs per race that start under these odds.

Any stats along these lines would be much appreciated.

[BJ]

Even just percentage of favorites that win? (home tab)...

[woof43]

Hi this is the table of percentages for dogs racing the first column is the probs an the second column details the % of actual winners vs the combined % of each percentile group.
So the nearer to 100% the better.
the .5 group contains all starters that were shorter then .5 on the tote, the .45 group contains all starters below .5 an above .45
Hope this helps in some way.
If you can develop your own probs you will quickly find the percentile bands that you need to invest in without doing too much work.


Probs% actual win %
0.5 92.3%
0.45 65.0%
0.4 84.3%
0.35 89.5%
0.3 63.1%
0.25 91.8%
0.2 86.0%
0.15 89.5%
0.1 108.7%
0.05 79.3%
0.025 65.3%



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: woof43 on 2004-11-16 15:14 ]</font>

[moeee]

Hey Woofa.
I know your response wasn't directed at me,but how come I never seem to understand any advice you offer.
Is it something to do with my lack of knowledge in mathematics?
I'm certainly no rocket scientist but I do know how to convert prices to percentages and also to frame my own market.
I admit I did have a big problem with calculus.

[woof43]

Hi Moe,
If winning at the races was easy, everyone would be doing it..
In the table I posted, the first column contains .50 which is 1/$2.00 payoff, if you were to then add all the .5's or $2.00 starters in every race for a week the total might be say 10. The expectation would be you'd expect there would be 10 actual winners.

So now in the 2nd column i have a percentage figure of say 90% that means there were only 9 winners if you applied it to the above example, when you do this, you can then see how efficent punters are in that range.

You then can use it to see how efficent say a jockey is if you totalled all his runners probs you then could compare his actual to expected...an so on..its very simple but very powerful an its unlimited in its application...

[moeee]

[quote]
On 2004-11-17 01:43, woof43 wrote:
In the table I posted, the first column contains .50 which is 1/$2.00 payoff, if you were to then add all the .5's or $2.00 starters in every race for a week the total might be say 10. The expectation would be you'd expect there would be 10 actual winners.

Still bustin' me balls gettin' a grip on things.
So we tally up all the dogs that start at even money.
If that was say 10 starters,I would expect 5 actual winners.No?

[Midas]

Hi Woof43,

I find this interesting.

How would you apply this to jockeys ?
Would you first have their starting price which you could convert into a probability e.g.
1/1 = 50% expected wins and then their actual win percentage at this price - say 20%,
then do the same for each of their starting prices or have I completely misunderstood what you are saying ?


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Midas on 2004-11-19 04:29 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Midas on 2004-11-19 04:30 ]</font>

[woof43]

Yep thats it Midas, gather all the Starting Prices from one source, convert them to decimals eg 1/$2.00 equals .5 then sum them an then compare actual win totals. The market is the most effiecent place to compare the ability of runners, jockeys, trainers, distance or barriers.

The same applies for Trainers an barriers once you have overal figures for both of these, you can then combine the jockey analysis with say the trainer analysis or Barriers(inside outside) or Distance filters an you then have an Ability Matrix

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: woof43 on 2004-11-19 10:36 ]</font>

[moeee]

On 2004-11-16 15:08, woof43 wrote:

Probs% actual win %
0.5 92.3%
0.45 65.0%
0.4 84.3%
0.35 89.5%
0.3 63.1%
0.25 91.8%
0.2 86.0%
0.15 89.5%
0.1 108.7%
0.05 79.3%
0.025 65.3%



Have I got it right here.
92.3% of Greyhounds starting at even money win!
Doesn't sound right somehow,but if it's true,there could be money to be made here.

[Midas]

Hi Woof43,

Thanks for that clarification.

In your experience, would you say that working with Forecast prices as opposed to Starting prices would make a big difference?
It would be difficult for me to always obtain SP before making a bet(work commitments) so would prefer FP.

Another thought - if you have an even money favourite in a 3 horse race, should this be the same win expectancy as an even money favourite in a 20 horse race. Is it better to take each individual price as a percentage of the total prices in that particular race?

[BJ]

On 2004-11-16 15:08, woof43 wrote:
Hi this is the table of percentages for dogs racing the first column is the probs an the second column details the % of actual winners vs the combined % of each percentile group.
So the nearer to 100% the better.
the .5 group contains all starters that were shorter then .5 on the tote, the .45 group contains all starters below .5 an above .45
Hope this helps in some way.
If you can develop your own probs you will quickly find the percentile bands that you need to invest in without doing too much work.


Probs% actual win %
0.5 92.3%
0.45 65.0%
0.4 84.3%
0.35 89.5%
0.3 63.1%
0.25 91.8%
0.2 86.0%
0.15 89.5%
0.1 108.7%
0.05 79.3%
0.025 65.3%



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: woof43 on 2004-11-16 15:14 ]</font>


Thanks woof for trying but I don't really understand.
Is the percentage representing money returns or win percentage? ( I find it hard to understand how 0.1 wins 108% of the time.. )

What I am after is:
Total number of races;
Number of races where the winner paid <$10

Also the same for where the winner paid <$9
and so on down to $2.

[woof43]

Ok, what the 108% means is that for all starters that have a SP between .15($6.66) an .10($10.00) for every expected 100 winners in that price range the actuality is 108 win.
I shouldn't need to say too much more on another Unhandicapping strategy

[moeee]

Woofa.
Does that mean if I had a $100 on each of those selections at starting price,I would have made 8% profit?