The Nose Again.

[kenchar]

I've been looking all day and nothing has shown up, and I thought it might have been a no bet day.
Up pops Rocky R5 and something makes my nose twitch.

No6 CAP JAUN.

Middle 30's for win and middle 6's for place on nswtab and unitab.

Bookie site with 5mins to go 21 win 1.9 place. Hey what's going on here something doesn't make sense.

I thought it was a mistake so kept refreshing. No Change.

1 min to go nearly the same on tabs, bookies gone out to 2.8 place (very generous ).

It was enough of a sniff job to make me have a bet, but to be honest I did cut my bet in half as I wasn't real confident.

Finished up at $7 place nswtab
$6.7 place unitab
$5 place books

The nose strikes again. :smile:

[geoffro]

How do you get a nose like that
can you train it to do that hehehehehe

well done kenchar

been watching the market movers on nsw tab most of the day.

found a lot of place getters when looking at the first or second down the list that had come in but was at $5+

[kenchar]

geoffro,

Glad to see you are trying to sus things out.
The area you are talking about is approx where I always look e.g 3rd and 4th fav, BUT that is not the only part of it, there are many other things I look for.
For example on my last thread I explained that I backed the bookie fav.
Yesterday a donkey and a very juicy $7 place.
Here's a question for you.

WHAT do you think my reasoning was to back that horse yesterday?

[geoffro]

Hey Kenchar,
Right well here goes, I presume it had more to do with the fact there was a large descrepency in the place odds between the bookie and the tab. You said before you look at the bookies odd to get a truer view of the horses real odds i think, SO when you saw the bookies have it at 1.90 but the tab had it at middle $6 then there was a fairly large anomally hence the nose twitching, do i take it kenchar you hold the bookies judgement in there markets in a higher regard and use it as a guide to find the descrepencies in comparason to the tab markets which all the sheep flock too.
I think i am just stating the obvious from what you have said previously, but do look forward to hearing the correct answer to your question.
geoffro

[kenchar]

Ok here's how I read? it.

It's a friday meeting up in woop woop.

The tab pools are fairly small, and there is someone who has got some good info or similar on a horse.

They want to have a lets say safe bet so they back it for a place and not win.

I presume they are betting in the 1000's and not 100's.

I don't know the opening bookie price for the place but lets say it was $5, so if they had $1000 or $2000 bet that is quite a good return.

If they had put the money on the tab with the small pools it would have paid zilch.

This is of course hyperthetical on my part, but hey I'm right enough times to make me a happy camper.

The main thing I remember from my track days is that all the BIG money always went with the bookies even if they were paying lower than the tote, because they know what their return is.

I used to watch certain people and never once did I see a $ change hands, it was always basically a nod and fingers held up.

I try to emulate what I learnt at the track on computer.

Hope this helps a little bit to give you an insight to some of the things I look for.

For me to have a bet something has to make this old nose twitch really hard.

[geoffro]

Hi kenchar,
It sure does help mate
every little bit of info is a bonus as far as i am concerned,after posting my answer to your question on saturday night i got on the tab site and was having a look at the trots and dogs and on poped up similar to yours
the bookies had it at $1.90 for the place but nsw tab and vic tab had it at $3.50 and $3.60 for the place, i thought i wonder if my nose should be twitching hehehehehe
so i watched it and it got out a little bit further on the tab i think to $3.80 or $3.90
but the bookies let it drift out there too so when it was off time they where all about the same, high $3, anyway the race was run and geelong r6 No8 melpark sunrise ran 3rd and paid $3.60 on NSWTAB and $3.80 on the other tab.
Coincidence i dont know but it seemed very appropriate at the time that i might sot something like that after reading your question and trying to understand your scenario.
Anyway i will continue to look on at the moment till i am confident in my ability to make somthing of this.
I must say if i can make it work it sure takes the grind out of doing the form all the time.
Thanks again kenchar i really appreciate the time you have given.
cheers
Geoffro

[odericko]

you mentioned bookie site any chance u might divulge wich one ty.

[geoffro]

Fester,
kenchar mentioned it on another thread tittled a typical senerio.
he cryptically put it http://www.sportznut.com but drop the znut and add odds

[kenchar]

goeffro,

Glad to see at least someone is trying to take an interest OUTSIDE the CIRCLE.

Beaten so many lengths, this time last 600 metres, the barrier is too far out, the wrong jockey, etc etc etc, is crap because if it wasn't with the information available today in relation to form then nobody would work.

The only problem being is that if the form held up then every winner would pay $1.04.

NOW there's sometjing to think about :smile:

[Merriguy]

Have tried to learn from you before, Kenchar --- and have learnt much. Thanks.

But you seem to be saying here that you look for the likely winner from price movements, and similar; BUT -- and this is the query --- still back for the place. Have I got this right?

Cheers,

[kenchar]

YUP ALWAYS.

I get the shits sometimes, like on friday backing a $40 winner only for a place, and bad thoughts go thru my head to change how I bet (like all punters), but I give myself a slap around the head and continue on the same.

The ONLY thing I'm interested in is consistancy and a profit at the end of each day.

I haven't kept records on how many winners I get, but I would hazard a guess and say it is dismal and I would be back working if I was backing for the win.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-11-09 06:44 ]</font>

[geoffro]

Kenchar,
If outside the circle is where i can find consistant profit then i am there with bells on without question.
I must admit i haven't put any money where my mouth is as yet and i wont until i feel confident in my ability with this method.
I take your point about form study and the fact that past form is in no way a true indication of how a horse will perform this time out. If it was as you say they would all be starting at $1.04.
I think there are very few horses going around that are that consistent and the ones that are, are the ones that are always short everytime they go around.
I'm sure there are a fair few people out there making money from form study and good on you if you are but it aint for me just as your methods kenchar aint for them.
Just on your methods, i have had a bit of trouble trying to pick place getters watching the bookies site as well as the market movers, i seem to do better just watching the market movers and recongnising particular paterns with regards the flow of money and changing prices.It would be nice to get a few more moves on the screen at once than just the open, last 2 and close
or even a graphical representation of the moves.
does anyone know of a website or program that might do this.
Another thing i am struggling with is the timing. Being able to pick the pattern i am looking for in time to actually bet on it.
I read a website that has a program called two knics without the k and it was supposed to support 1 click betting and produces graphs of the prices movements, does anyone use this?
anyway kenchar thanks again for sharing your ways with us all i personally have found it very interesting and it has given me new hope that i can make regular money from punting. Please keep it up
regards
geoffro

[Merriguy]

Thanks for the reply, Kenchar.

Merriguy

Just one other thing: how hard do you slap yourself around the head to make yourself see reason :grin:

[the mug]

Hey Kenchar..
for what its worth, i am still learning and absorbing your valuable input..
I dont have much to add most times, hence lack of posts, but like geoffro, merriguy etc, appreciate it always.
keep it up mate..
cheers

[Rock Steady]

Hate to put a dampener on things guys BUT...

No online bookies actually offer FIXED odds on trots and dogs in Australia. The price they are showing is an "indication" of the odds you will get. You will always be paid the tote odds for a win and place bet on trots and dogs. So, the so called fixed odds you see are not actually FIXED.