Last Start Winners, help?!

[TenFour]

G'Day

I was wondering if someone could help me out with some statistics. I would like to know how horses fare given that they have:
(a) won their last start
(b) placed in their second last start, and
(c) won at todays track and distance

If anyone could help me out it would be much appreciated.

Thanks.

[foggy]

TenFour,

Just ran those rules through my old GTX database program with results from 1/2/99 to 31/1/2002.

Sel = 1747
Wins = 373
W Divs = $1442.90
Race s/r = 22.22%
Longest Losing Win Seq = 37
Places = 833
P Divs = $1510.30
Longest losing Place Seq = 9

This is all tracks in all states for all days.

[thetout]

2 things happen when horses win their last start.
1/they go up in weight[which is not too bad if racing similar class].
2/they come down in weight and too far up in class[this could be a trainers wishfull thinking or he is telling you the horse has a lot more ability than he has shown].
Look at the horses that ran 1st 2nd last start and coming back to a more suitable class this start.CHEERS

[TenFour]

Thanks for the quick replies. I'm just trying a few things at the moment and I don't have the stats to check it out, so I appreciate the help.

I was wondering if you could do the same thing, but instead of winning last start, they were a beaten favourite who ran a place, and also won second last start. So, the rules are:

(a) Beaten favourite last start who ran a place
(b) Won second last start
(c) Won at todays track and distance (c in recent form)

Again, thanks for the help

[kenchar]

Will probably win but will be $1.3 :smile:

[TenFour]

Ha ha. Hopefully they are not that short.

Perhaps if I added more filters, like the ammount of time between last start and today's run or something I might improve the selections. I was thinking of adding that the horses last start must have been no more than 2 weeks ago, but I'm not sure as to what effect that would have.

[lomaca]

On 2004-11-22 22:20, lomaca wrote:
[quote]
On 2004-11-22 21:32, TenFour wrote:
adding that the horses last start must have been no more than 2 weeks ago, but I'm not sure as to what effect that would have.

Tenfour, sorry to say this. "time between starts" is a myth! It is only there to be selected because it is easily accessed in the formguide. Remember this, some people say stay away from first uppers. Well I back some of them up to 1100M, because fresh horses can and do win on short distances first up. Also I could point out some horses that won over 1600M first up. It is all available in the horses form. Of course race fitness is important but not as important as some other factors. Some horses actually will have enough of racing after a few starts, while others need 6 or more runs to come to hand. Do not become a slave of any software that allows you to make mechanical adjustments and hope you will discover the holy grail. I am not being negative here, just that I have been through it all myself. You have access to the form if you are using PPR so after the race, check why the fav did not win and why the winner did? Sometimes there is no obvious reason (or is but we can't do b.. all about it, but that's racing) But most of the times you will find that there is a valid reason, like never placed in the same class, never placed on the distance and a lot of other reasons. I have seen some favs on TAB, and I thought to myself Why on earth? and I was proved right. The best advice I can give is, try to read the form and then use it in the input in your software if possible.
PS Class on it's own means little! Couple it with the prize money! Do you think Class3 $3000 at Esk is the same as Class3 $8000 at Eagle Farm???
Cheers and good luck!

[foggy]

TenFour,

Sorry, the stats I supplied yesterday was for horses that ran 2nd at their 2nd last start not placed 3rd or 2nd. Revised stats below:-

Sel = 2985
Wins = 556
Win P/L = -21.9%
Place P/L = -15.5%
Race s/r = 20%
Longest Losing win seq = 30
Longest losing place seq = 13

A little better than yesterday's stats for last start winners.

Stats for last start beaten fav:-

Sel = 711
wins = 170
Win P/L = -12.5%
Place P/L = -7%
Race s/r = 24.8%
LLWS = 15
LLPS = 9

A further improvement and the top 3 place strike rated horses have an approx 30% strike rate.

After adding a couple of filters to the last set of stats of:-

-beaten mgn of no more than 3.5 lengths
-place rank of 1 to 3
-pre-post rank of 1 to 3

stats are:-

sel = 381
wins = 129
Win P/L = +7%
Place P/L = +1.4%
RSR = 34.3%
LLWS = 11
LLPS = 5

Of course this is all retrospective - would it work in the future as good as this?

From the amount of ideas I have come up with from using the database program, I have found that this is not always so. As most on this forum would agree, retrospectively fiiting rules around results does not neccesarily mean instant profits.

Good luck.

[TenFour]

foggy,

By what do you mean "place rank of 1 to 3" ??

[foggy]

TenFour,

I mean the best 3. Highest ranked or 1st ranked on "Place Strike Rate", then the 2nd highest and then the 3rd highest.

Same goes for "Pre-post Prices".