The BET TO END ALL DEBTS

[knowledge]

I've been betting since early this year and already am -$500. So tonight I'm making a big bet to clear me of debt.

So I bet $2000 on Bayern Munich to beat Mainz at $1.25. $500 profit which will clear me of debt.

Wish me luck.

[sparkus8]

You are looking good right now mate, 2-0 ahead nearing half time.

[knowledge]

If only it was always this easy.

3-0

[Dr Pangloss]

And if you think that was clever then your fate is well and truly sealed. My heartfelt commiserations.

[knowledge]

what? please explain what you mean DOC.

[umrum]

what? please explain what you mean DOC.
i think the doc means you wont win backing 1.25 pops all the time

[Mr ed]

Knowledge, good on ya mate it takes balls to have $2000 on anything, and i am sure it was an educated bet. I am a firm believer that to win big you must bet big, you are not going to back the card as they say all you needed was one result where by far the better team played to their potential. Probably the easiest $500 you've ever made. Since the spring finished there have been slim pickings as far as horseracing is concerned with a host of shitty unbettable races. over the last 3 saturdays i have had only 3 bets Star Of Florida $2.30, Ellicorsam $1.75, and Glasnost $2.40. All short priced favourites and deservably so, they all looked before and after the race good things. If you think only unforeseen bad luck can beat you, GO FOR BROKE, and stop betting on the events your only half sure in.

[knowledge]

thanks Mr ed I appreciate it. I'm glad you an I both share the same philosophy about betting. Betting can be easy if you back sure things. It's the "gambles" we take that cost us. Sure bets are always around, especially in NBA. Teams like Spurs to beat Sixers at $1.20... too easy, they won 105-72.

What's important now is that I've lost no money and it's been a good learning experience. I can use my knowledge (no pun intended) to win more.

Like today.. in NBA we've got Mavericks to beat Rockets at 1.35. Easy money. Or Auxerre to beat Amica Wronki in the UEFA Cup at $1.15. Sevilla to beat AEK Athens is another safe looking bet.

[Northerly]

I think you'll find that the Doc, is saying that if you continue to back $1.25 Favourites (which I know you do). You are going to need to get 80% SR JUST to break even.
Going by your post, your bet was a BIG one for you. What would of happened if you lost (I know it didn't)? You should be betting to some kind of staking plan, not just trying to CHASE your losses, because that's what you did. Just read you post Title and think about the consequences of a loss. You should never put yourself in that position.

I've mentioned it before, but try looking for value.

Just for the record.
I have backed Houston vs Dallas (+6.5pts) @ $2.02

so hopefully Dallas win by 2 and we both win

[Northerly]

How stiff can I be????

Level at Full Time, got done by 7 pts after OT.

That sucks, I covered the spread as far as I'm concerned but my bank balance disagrees.

Well at least you won "K Man", but it wasn't easy money.

I'll have to be content that I handicapped the game perfectly and got done on a technicality.

[knowledge]

that's actually really hard man. 0.5 of a point cost you the win. My bookmaker's handicap was -7.5 so I would've won if I made that bet.. :p

you see how "value" can be good if it wins but when it loses what good is it. Notice the 3 predictions I made all won. Easy money. Just play it safe and avoid the exotics your balance will be better.

[knowledge]

another "easy money" selection at 1.15 is Carlos Moya to beat Mardy Fish.

[Northerly]

I wouldn't consider taking the spread as EXOTIC, but I'll stick to what I know works.

I wasn't the one who bet 4 times what you had lost in 11 months JUST to get back even. That's just crazy, exactly why Dr. said what he said.

Anyway, I'm glad you won. I don't like to see people lose. But you will never make any real money if you only bet on $1.15-$1.40 favourites.

Have you wondered why you were down after 11 months of the year? Just take a look at you "Winning Streak" threads.

Just trying to help, as I have done exactly what you are doing now in the past (eg $1.10 bets on Brisbane +39.5pts at the Gabba vs West Coast)

i wont mention this topic again. As much as I've not been a fan of "Dr. Pangloss" and his harsh comments in the past, I agree with him here.

[knowledge]

I wouldn't consider taking the spread as EXOTIC, but I'll stick to what I know works.

I wasn't the one who bet 4 times what you had lost in 11 months JUST to get back even. That's just crazy, exactly why Dr. said what he said.

Anyway, I'm glad you won. I don't like to see people lose. But you will never make any real money if you only bet on $1.15-$1.40 favourites.

Have you wondered why you were down after 11 months of the year? Just take a look at you "Winning Streak" threads.

Just trying to help, as I have done exactly what you are doing now in the past (eg $1.10 bets on Brisbane +39.5pts at the Gabba vs West Coast)

i wont mention this topic again. As much as I've not been a fan of "Dr. Pangloss" and his harsh comments in the past, I agree with him here.

ok Northerly, I didn't mean to stir and sorry if I did. Your bet deserved to win but was unlucky not to.

I haven't been betting since January, actually since May. So 7 months I lost $500 in.

I won't bet $2000 on any other things, I just backed Bayern to make sure I was ahead of the bookmaker. Now I am ahead since I've been backing short prices more regularly.

I appreciate your help.. and just out of curiosity, was Brisbane +39.5 at $1.10??? I would've thought $1.85.

I don't just back short odds, like last night I backed AZ Alkmaar at $2.10 and Benfica at $1.55.

I don't believe a price has to be short to win.. they're just generally more likely to. And my predictions above are evidence of this.

Best of luck to you, my friend.

[Northerly]

That bet on Brisbane was for them to NOT lose by 39.5pts, hence the short price.

A couple of my friends and I put in a $100 each and bet the bank each week on those type of bets on the footy and got it up to about $500, so we had a good run going but it only took 1 bet to lose it. When the bank got to $600 we were going to bet 80% of the bank, but we never got there.

We got the idea from my friends workmate who turned $100 into $2000 (or so) but betting all up on $1.15 shots in the footy 2 years ago.

Anyway, we lost so not sure if we'll try it again. Even if we bet 80% we would of taken ages to get back to where we started.

Good to see that you do bet on those others.

Good punting over the weekend