Stop at 2 winners?

[partypooper]

Constructive comments are invited (especially from those mathematicians out there) on the following.
I subscribe to a well known ratings service for Perth races, it’s results after 4 years betting Saturday only =30% winners, average of 8 bets a week, and a POT of 5.58%.

Now I’m not complaining about the POT as such but it just doesn’t inspire me with great confidence that it will always do it. Anyway 2 years ago I decided to take a different tack and continued at level stakes BUT stopped betting after 2 winners on any one day.i.e. say the first 2 won that’s it for the day. Say the first race produced a winner, then continue betting level stakes right up till another winner or race 8 whichever comes first. My thinking here is 30% S/R = so just over 2 winners from 8 bets on average.
Anyway the result is (so far) 526 bets, = average of 5 per week, 175 winners (S/R 33.27) and a POT of 18%.

Have I just been fortunate here or have I tilted the probability in my favour in some way???
Just as a matter of interest out of 102 betting days there was 3 days without a winner and 12 days where the first 2 won. 19 days with only one winner and 80 days with 2 winners.(or more but I stopped betting after 2)

[Bhagwan]

It makes sound logic to me ,that it is easier to pick two winners say from 8 races than it is to pick 3-8 winners from 8.

It`s even easier to pick one winner from 8 than 2 from 8.

Many professional punters adapt the target betting method where they target to win say $1000 out of their 3-5 top selections for the day in different races .
They stop betting for the day once their first winner gets up, even though the others may win also later on.

[Imagele]

There seems to be no logic whatsoever to stopping on any given day after 2 winners.
The last race of the day is no different to the 1st. race of the next day.

[stugots]

instead of stopping after 2 winners i would suggest stopping after a certain target is acheived.

this is how i bet most days & it is working very nicely thank you very much.

[partypooper]

This is whats good about discussion, Bhagwan can perfect logic in the idea, whereas Imagele can see no logic whatsoever!!!

Stugots, problem with target betting is devastation caused when you hit the inevitable long losing run. However I have done some work also targeting but just accepting the loss when you lose on all 8 races and start again on the next betting day. In this case there wasw only 3 days out of 102 where not a single winner was struck.

I'm also doing some figures at the moment using the "Retirement" plan so will post the results at a when finished to see how that would have fared.

[stugots]

yes partyp - the dreaded OUTS! - they demolish most methods of betting so i have found that the less bets one has the less chance of striking the losing run.

get in & then get out asap is my reasoning.

how many of us have backed the 1st couple of winners early in the day & then proceeded to give it all back plus the rent? all of us i am guessing.

as to the retirement plan, i think it would work well with the figure you have provided - i'd be looking for a minimum 5-10% increase in pot using the plan.

[Merriguy]

While I'm no mathematician, Partypooper; I doubt if anyone can give you a definitive answer to your question. It all depends on the "picks". Nothing comes from this rule or that.

If the service usually gives you two winners on average, it seems reasonable to stop after two winners --- and your increase in POT seems to encourage that approach.

Cheers.

[KennyVictor]

If indeed all races were equivalent in terms of your betting system it would just be a case of pure luck when you decided to stop betting but I think you may be taking advantage of the old "early races are easier to pick" syndrome.
I run a system on WA races and here is a breakdown by race number of my success (or lack of it) by race number.
These are NSW TAB returns if I had a bet on every race since 1997 (about 900 races for each race number)

Race 1, 29.4% winners -5.5 %POT
Race 2, 30.2% winners +1.5%
Race 3, 29.9% winners +6.7%
Race 4, 27.5% winners +2.1%
Race 5, 26.3% winners +5.1%
Race 6, 27.6% winners +12.5%
Race 7, 24.6% winners -0.7%
Race 8, 25.0% winners +21.0%

There is a general downward trend in terms of winner percentage as the day goes on and probably you would find the same with your system if you checked it.

Not sure if I'm helping or making a point here or not, probably just adding some confusion but the figures are interesting.
Perhaps I should start betting on race 6 and 8 in future.

KV

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Partypooper,

I don't think the issue is stopping at two winners either. You have been lucky with the improvement in the POT to date, it's the way it panned out.

Firstly, I would first look at obtaining the best possible prices on the selections to raise the POT.

I would also look at the common factors in the failure or success of individual selections.

E.G. were a lot of non-winners first up from a spell or racing with a break of >21 days etc.

Were a lot of winners last start winners and so on.

Lastly for what it's worth, I'd just stop when you're ahead for the day for the psychological advantage, whether it's the first or second last race of the day.

If you have a list of bets available, I'd be happy to look at them in-depth for you with the idea of a staking plan or raising the POT of the selections.

[Racer]

Constructive comments are invited (especially from those mathematicians out there) on the following.
I subscribe to a well known ratings service for Perth races, it’s results after 4 years betting Saturday only =30% winners, average of 8 bets a week, and a POT of 5.58%.
Just as a matter of interest out of 102 betting days there was 3 days without a winner
pp,

I think 4 years and 102\99 says they find a winner on the vast
majority of days.
That was the toughest part for us but we found after 5years of checking that 'The Scout' was near certain to get at least one winner per day at the
'Main Meeting' and his tips were reasonable prices. 102\99 is good.

Then it might get too rich, we went after 50 quid profit via backing from tip one to win the 50, and recover our losses next bet if the tip did not win.
We stopped as soon as we won the bullion and waited for the next day.

Unfortunately the small privately owned 'betting shop' did not notice when we were sometimes having to outlay 100 quid and it lost, but they had radar when it won.
Mind you there just wasn't time for them to lay off simply because I had to wait until the last minute to place the bet because of the odds changing and I allowed a bit extra in case the odds fell a fraction more.
One day I bet a ton on a 11\1 winner and it was the straw that broke.....
The owner came over and told me to POQ, he would not be taking any more of my bets.
We did not strike any of your 3 losing days and I think it might have seen us off had we struck one.We only had visions of the 50 a day going to 60 a day etc.,etc.

These days you don't have a problem with the bets being refused but
I wonder if the prices of their winners ever goes above 3 or 4\1.
I mean you need to win a hundred so the outlay might progress too scarily.

stugots seems to have the bullion in the bag.

Regards.

[Chrome Prince]

Hmmm,

Racer, was "The Scout" equivalent to today's Late Mail?

Think this might work with the Late Mail, as I would guess that most days a LM would get up, especially if you stuck to the better meetings.

[KennyVictor]

Lastly for what it's worth, I'd just stop when you're ahead for the day for the psychological advantage, whether it's the first or second last race of the day.



Other than maybe a psychological advantage I can't see any logic to stopping as soon as you're ahead on the day.

It all depends on you're strike rate I suppose but unless you're betting longish priced horses you would need quite a few winning days where you are (say) a couple of units ahead to make up for that bad day when you loose 8 races.

KV

[stugots]

stugots seems to have the bullion in the bag.

Regards.

just a couple of nuggets. which ocasionaly turn out to be fools gold!

[Racer]

Hmmm,

Racer, was "The Scout" equivalent to today's Late Mail?

as I would guess that most days a LM would get up.

Chrome,
He was a daily newspaper race tipster, but good.

Unfortunately it doesn't pay to just guess when it's your bullion - we checked for 5 years and pp mentions 4 years.

The bookies and TAB'S profits are not increasing due to us winning.

Half the problem all of the time is that many want to win $200 for a 10 or $20 outlay.
I mean can anyone pleeeease tell me where I can get more than 5 or 6% return on my bullion, PER YEAR ?

So if one outlays $1000 - then be looking for a maximum profit of $60 per year,we need the $60 profit now, not after a year, we're punters !

OK you can have it now, but don't forget the outlay,what was it again, a $1000 to get your hands on the $60 ! How much can I expect for my $100
outlay $6 !

Regards.

[kenchar]

Partypooper,
This is one of the most interesting threads for a long time.
I believe that a lot depends on the reason one is having a punt.
The thrill of it, the fun etc etc OR FOR PROFIT.
I don't have to air my views on stopping as I am sure they are well known on this forum.
The thing to remember is that if you have a "method" that at some stage of the day puts you in front, then stop when that is acheived, the only limit to your winnings is the size of the bet.
I don't know of anyone that can bet all day and basically win every day.
This is the biggest downfall of the majority of punters.
I swear some day's I look all day and don't have a bet.
Very frustrating, BUT at the end of the day I haven't lost.

Cheers

[KennyVictor]

I'm sorry but unless it is some peculiarity of the system you are using I see no logical reason to stop looking for value bets as soon as you are "in front" for the day.
If you are working a system with a high strike rate that almost guarantees one win in a day and you increase your bets so that that win puts you ahead - so what! Why stop? Start another series of bets. If your system is that good you are just that much closer to your next win.
The only reason a person might stop in my view is that your will to win might be weakened after a few successes. I know I've comforted myself halfway through a race by saying - ah well, what if it looses, I'll still be ahead on the day. But if you can avoid the temptation to bet rashly when in front you should still look for the good bets that might come in the second half of the day.
No, to me the last race is as likely to be as successful as the first whether I'm in front or behind. A race is a race is a race and what went before is immaterial except in so much as it might affect my state of mind.

I'm always ready to learn something from the masters though so feel free to put me right. :-)

[kenchar]

KennyVictor,

In my humble opinion you have just mentioned the biggest no no in racing, and that is "increase your bets".
I don't care how good anyone is, how high their strike rate is, the day or series of bets will come when you will give back months of profit.
Pinch a little bit, every day you bet and have a safety brake for the day when it ain't gonna happen for you.
Yesterday I had a rare losing day.
3 bets no results and stopped.
No big damage done as with my overs I should get that back in 2 days.

Cheers

[partypooper]

Mmmmmmm, glad I started some thinking here, I've got heaps of replies to do , Kenchar, Chrome and more, but alas "work" calls, so can't get to it till tomorrow, but PLEASE keep it coming.....!!!!

[KennyVictor]

No, I'm with you there Kenchar. I only mentioned increasing bets as some obscure way to justify stopping when you're ahead.
I'm still waiting to hear why the last race is any different a betting prospect to the first based on whether you are in front, behind or level or whether you've had one bet today or half a dozen.

[puntz]

"stopping when in profit for the day" or "if winning why stop ?"
were questions and expiriences I/we had encountered in the early days of the punt carreer.

My very first "lesson/advice" was to use "percenatges/targets and if reached stop for the day"

While on the dole at the time we used to share a TAB "bank" and it was argued,
"if winning why stop?" against the percenatge method.


From this expirience having tried both, I can say the one that worked for me is the percenatage mehtod ( when in front stop for the day, 3 strikes call it quits).

Since using this approach,the bet bank has never had to have "refills".

There is one other observation not mentioned on this forum much, but I guess we may not pay too much attention on the "no bet" races.
I see it as a "win" if a no-bet race actualy does not win. It means the correct decision was made.
However, how many of the no-bet races should have been a bet.
I look for the error of judgement, was it judged correctly?
Just an angle I thought I'd add to this thread.

[Truckie]

It depends on what sort of punter you are. Personally, punting is a means of keeping the grey cells of an octogenarian going, so I do the stupid thing of lodging all my $1 bets and then forgetting. And I do bet on what I regard as extremely roughies, but yesterday out of 14 bets, one race with prepost odds of $11 paid $32 unitab and $38 Maxidiv.(I wouldn't have bet had I known the price). Nevertheless stopping after 2 winners would have had me spitting chips!!!

[sportznut]

Yep, I regard those non-bet races as very important. When you think about it, a loser not backed is just like a $2 winner.

[stugots]

in my opinion the main reason for stopping for the day when either -

a) in front
b) target reached
c) winners reached

is for me simply to help maintain ones sanity.

is anyone seriously going to tell me being stuck in front of your pc or down at the tab or at the track ALL DAY betting race after race or series after series is FUN?

me thinks not.

[dingoboy]

Hi All,

Very interseting topic PP,
My two cents worth, as a place bet man, what i have come to trust is not so much stopping at two winners or for me placings, however stop at days percentage.
I have my four banks for three meetings, one bank "spare", when the three banks (meetings) either combined or individually reach the set "target" of 10 % increase i put away the radio, and get back to work. Often early races like maidens etc are good or reasonable for a horse might have four runs 4,5,3,2,....hes mine. So often ill only have three, four bets and once as i said the 10 % rule is acheived, thats it till tomorrow.
I agree with some posters, it is hard to sit back and watch potential winners go by, but the way i look at it is there will be more tomorrow when im back, so i stick to my 10% per day for ten days then re calculate,....works well.

I would be interested in the retirement plan info as im using it at the moment and would love to know a little more about it as i believe no one has the ultimate and one can always learn more.

Cheers all

Dingoboy

[Racer]

Anyway the result is (so far) 526 bets, = average of 5 per week, 175 winners (S/R 33.27) and a POT of 18%.
Just as a matter of interest out of 102 betting days there was 3 days without a winner and 12 days where the first 2 won. 19 days with only one winner and 80 days with 2 winners.(or more but I stopped betting after 2)
party,

Is it possible to say, how many, and how long the losing runs were over
those 102 days, as though the 102 was just one continuous day, and not taking into account stopping after any wins ?

Regards.

[Mark]

This must be the only thing that Kenchar & I don't agree on.

I try to take opportunities whenever & wherever they appear. To me there is no first race or last race. With, you know who, (a betting exchange that I'm sure everyone knows about by now), when does the day start & end?. It is now possible to bet around the clock every day of the week. Get up early & sometimes you can get around 30 races from the USA, move on to our races through the afternoon, say 24 races, then onto South Africa for another 8-16, and finish the day/night in England & Ireland, with up to 40 races. No time to sleep because the US kicks into gear again. No wonder I'm cactus.

[DR RON]

perhaps someone with a reasonable database of reults could answer this question for me.

If we were to bet the favourite each race until we had backed 2 winners at a meeting and then stopped betting at that meeting , would the strike rate of the remaining favourites that we dont bet on be higher or lower than the overall strike rate for favourites. My guess it would be lower and there may be some justification in stopping after backing 2 winners for the day.

I'm only using favourites as an easy example for someone to check. Any set of selections should do.

As in partypoopers case stopping after 2 has increased his profit on turnover and thus works for him.

[lomaca]

[QUOTE=DR RON]perhaps someone with a reasonable database of reults could answer this question for me.
Dr Ron!
I have the price at jump times going back a couple of years and will try to check it for you.
Regarding stopping at a certain number of winners makes perfect sense, provided you know your strike rate per meeting, and the number of outs you can expect. The latter is not as important as the strike rate per meeting.

[kenchar]

Mark,
I can understand why you virtually bet around the clock because of your method of betting.

I'm a bit different in my method, in that I assess a race and if I'm correct I jag a result, but as a few days ago my assessments were wrong and not one bet took the bait. This is the main reason I stop when 1 point+ up or 3 points down. I am more than happy with my little bit everyday which always adds up to big bit at the end of the month.

I have a few losing days but never a losing week.

You on the other hand are totally different in that you work to mathematics, and as far as I understand when an opportunity presents itself to you, then you are virtually in a no lose situation and will win a % from the race.

Cheers

[Mark]

Kenchar, good to hear from you.
Whatever works for the individual is the way to go.
Did you read my other post re the nose?, well the nose in reverse.

ps stop picking on the new boy.

[partypooper]

party,

Is it possible to say, how many, and how long the losing runs were over
those 102 days, as though the 102 was just one continuous day, and not taking into account stopping after any wins ?

Regards.

MMMMM! an interesting one, no I haven't that info at this moment but it wouldn't be that hard to work it out, I will post the results soon.

[partypooper]

Racer, short answer is LLR= 14 which was broken by a $2.80 winner. the next LLR was 10 (once) I'll try and do some more detailed figures tomorrow PM.

CHROME, I'll send you results spread sheet down the line, by the way my figures are based on AIS best fluc until about 6 months ago when I swapped to Maxi Divi. I think maybe a slight improvement is likely. But as for being at the course and just trying to get the best price on offer,.....mmmm I'm not sure. Question, when they say BEST FLUC, are they talking about best price on offer ANYWHERE?

[kenchar]

Mark,

No didn't see the nose post. Which Thread?

[Merriguy]

Dingoboy,

Interesting post. Thanks! I too lean towards place betting.

While it is a bit off topic I would be interested in your response to a couple of things from that post:

1) Do you use some sort of programme to help you keep tabs of what is going on .... Excel or some such? Things can get a bit hairy if you are trying to keep tabs on four banks at once, especially when the inevitable loser comes up!

2) Do you usually achieve your 10% increase? 10% per day equals 100% in ten days, effectively doubling your bank :D Nice work!

3) Can't quite follow why three (four) banks are needed if you stop betting once 10% is reached in any fashion.

Just a little "place seekers" observation: In the last two days, on the meetings that Unitab gave a Late Mail for (4 on Wednesday, 3 yesterday), the longest run of 'outs' for achieving a place return was two. Overall 66% yesterday and 78% on Wednesday of the Late Mails achieved a place.

Cheers

[dingoboy]

Hi Merriguy,

You are right on it !!!
After 10 days, you know it ! 100 %.
Just got to work out when to start taking out !

Seriously though, the four banks example:

Total bank lets say 1000 units.

Bank 1 200 units For Sydney,
Bank 2 200 units for Brisbane,
Bank 3 200 units for Provincial,
Bank 4 Spare just in case things go wrong somewhere, like a reserve of funds.

Normally i can achieve 8-13 % per day, i dont worry if i only get to 8 % one day like yesterday cause i know sometimes there will be a place divy of lets say 2.2 units today or tomorrow which will bring my % up to say 12.

Yesterday, one bank was down to 120 units from 160 start after two bets, i ofloaded that meet and had more bets in Melbourne instead which was doing well for me, so it doesnt really matter if one bank is down,as long as the others are up ....make sence ?

I also have noticed unitabs late mail, i use that, late mail in Sydney, recent three (minimum) runs and market movers, it works for me and i dont have to read one bit of a form guide.

I have played with this for months on paper, ive kind of sort of designed it my self with a lot of reading differant threads on this awsome site, its a bit hotch potch i know, but i try to think outside of the circle a bit. I dont use excel or any other programme as im just starting out, i did try to get the missus to do a calculation sheet a couple of weeks ago but i think she was a bit sus, i made one but its got some design faults so i dont really use it. i must say i have gone through a few reems of A$ paper though, ive got a "bet table" that i use that is pre done, i just press print and my "day sheet" is there.

I would be interseted in excel sheets if you have access, the retirement plan is a little complex at times hence my "bet sheet" that i use. I would love a copy if you have one,

Many thanks

Dingo

[Racer]

Racer, short answer is LLR= 14 which was broken by a $2.80 winner. the next LLR was 10 (once) I'll try and do some more detailed figures tomorrow PM.

CHROME, I'll send you results spread sheet down the line, by the way my figures are based on AIS best fluc until about 6 months ago when I swapped to Maxi Divi. I think maybe a slight improvement is likely. But as for being at the course and just trying to get the best price on offer,.....mmmm I'm not sure. Question, when they say BEST FLUC, are they talking about best price on offer ANYWHERE?
party,

I moved the cobwebs,dust, and mouse .... to one side, after 50 odd years,
and note that during our research over the 5 years on the 700 tips we were able to see certain things which helped to improve the S\R a bit.

We found such things as, of his 700 tips -
52 ran over 30 days ago since their LTO and only 8 won = 15%
so they were not worth betting - the odds were also low.

When a tip had previously won at the C & D we got 47% winners and
112% on T\O.
If any of the C & D'ers had a 1 2 3 as its LTO form figure we bet like wounded
rhinos because 75% of them won.

Only that it might be a PITA for you time wise, if you could have listed the
whole 500 and odd here, and the date that each one ran for you - I would
fill in by each one how long since its LTO, and the form figure of that LTO run, and if they were a previous C & D winner.

It might be slightly different because the Poms train a bit diff. and maybe high-tech tucker etc. has altered the LTO days but it would be interesting to know.
Of the tips that were running between 1 - 7 days since their LTO only 17% won - however, of those that had won at their LTO within the 1 - 7 days,
40% won again.

I realise that Chrome already offered to check and analyze, but he might be interested in other parts of the equation.

Regards.

[Chrome Prince]

party,

I moved the cobwebs,dust, and mouse .... to one side, after 50 odd years,
and note that during our research over the 5 years on the 700 tips we were able to see certain things which helped to improve the S\R a bit.

We found such things as, of his 700 tips -
52 ran over 30 days ago since their LTO and only 8 won = 15%
so they were not worth betting - the odds were also low.

When a tip had previously won at the C & D we got 47% winners and
112% on T\O.
If any of the C & D'ers had a 1 2 3 as its LTO form figure we bet like wounded
rhinos because 75% of them won.

Only that it might be a PITA for you time wise, if you could have listed the
whole 500 and odd here, and the date that each one ran for you - I would
fill in by each one how long since its LTO, and the form figure of that LTO run, and if they were a previous C & D winner.

It might be slightly different because the Poms train a bit diff. and maybe high-tech tucker etc. has altered the LTO days but it would be interesting to know.
Of the tips that were running between 1 - 7 days since their LTO only 17% won - however, of those that had won at their LTO within the 1 - 7 days,
40% won again.

I realise that Chrome already offered to check and analyze, but he might be interested in other parts of the equation.

Regards.

Racer,

I take it you're from the UK?

Then there is a large difference in training methods and performances etc.

You stating that you're an octagenarian, I'm assuming you are the same punter who came up with the Golden Egg or similar?

Did you devise the system of less than two lengths from the winner in a fast time system?

If so, people this man knows what he's doing and has been around a very long time in the UK and has been very very successful. ;-)

If I'm wrong in my assumptions, then apologies, as there are glaring similarities in residence, age and great ideas.

Your research on LTO is spot on my friend.

Have a look at horses that ran second LTO 7 Days, the strike rate is lower, but the profit and average dividend is much higher by ratio. Make sure the horse is running in a similar class though.