I love Pinjarra in December

[KennyVictor]

Forgive me for starting with a bit of a skite but who else but you guys could appreciate the how good it feels to pick 6 winners in 8 races for a POT of 270%. (I did cheat a bit, I backed two horses in one of the races).
I run a computer based system (with a ten year database) which uses little more than well tweaked winning margins, riding weights, and jockeys to generate ratings for horses on all races in WA. No account for barriers, going, preferred distance or course and just a small penalty for older horses returning from a spell.
The funny thing is year after year the system performs badly at some courses (Ascot for e.g, always -10%) and year after year it performs well at others (Belmont nearly always +10 to 15%). Not only that, some courses have pretty consistently good months and bad months. Pinjarra for example Nov +30%, Dec +40%, Jan +25% and the rest of the year crap.
You need a lot of results to work a system on a by month basis (which is why I stick to WA - easily available data) but (if you haven't already) you may want to consider the time of year and course when you run some of your systems. It could explain some runs of outs.
I have a few theories on the whys and wherefores of this up and down performance but I would be interested to hear what you guys feel the reasons for this may be.

Now, I'm just going to look for that thread which asked if you should give up after two winners. Nah, better not, I'd only start skiting about my $12 winner in the last race. :-)

[Paddy]

Re your adjustment for jockeys KennyVictor, how do you handle apprentices i.e. base apprentice rating versus claim. Dilemma for some people I know. eg. ignore claim or include, and either way how to rate in relation to your average jockey rating.

[Paddy]

PS.
Congrats on getting 6 winners from 8 races! Very nice effort.

[KennyVictor]

Re your adjustment for jockeys KennyVictor, how do you handle apprentices.

I rate all horses on the actual weight carried after allowances.
I used to penalise 3Kg apprentices 0.95Kg, 2Kg apprentices 0.35Kg and 1.5Kg apprentices 0.325Kg.
Now I assess each jockey on their performance over past races. I keep an average of whether their latest (up to 100) horses did better or worse than expected when they rode them. I limit the bonus or penalty to + or - 3Kg in case the jockey hasn't had many rides to form a good average but I usually find the range is + or - 2Kg from the best jockey to the newest apprentice. All against actual weight carried.

KV

[Paddy]

I…….but I usually find the range is + or - 2Kg from the best jockey to the newest apprentice…...



Thanks for the response KennyVictor. Much appreciated.

Now let’s see if I have this in the right perspective.
In simplest terms, you have a 4Kg gap between best & worse??

If yes, then HorseA with best jock on board would be 1kg worse off than if same HorseA had newest apprentice on board (and after 3kg claim)?

[shoto]

[QUOTE=KennyVictor]...
I run a computer based system (with a ten year database) which uses little more than well tweaked winning margins, riding weights, and jockeys to generate ratings for horses on all races in WA ...

KennyV,
Interesting breakdown of results. What do you use for a 'base' measure for the class of the race in your ratings?

[KennyVictor]

Now let’s see if I have this in the right perspective.
In simplest terms, you have a 4Kg gap between best & worse??

If yes, then HorseA with best jock on board would be 1kg worse off than if same HorseA had newest apprentice on board (and after 3kg claim)?

No I think with the best jock on board the horse would be +2Kg for a bonus. With a bad 3Kg apprentice he would be +3Kg better off from the weight claim and -2Kg better off (or 2Kg worse off) with the jockey penalty. This gives +3Kg -2Kg or +1Kg overall.
Therefore good jockey +2Kg better off, poor apprentice +1Kg better off making the good jockey a 1Kg better prospect.

Seems a bit under-rated for the good jockey to me but the system gives the best results with those weightings.

KV

[KennyVictor]

Interesting breakdown of results. What do you use for a 'base' measure for the class of the race in your ratings?

Each race gets a rating based on the horses which run in that race. It's an average of the expected ratings all the horses will return based on their previous runs. A sort of self governing system.
If none of the horses have run before I temporarily assign an average starting rate for the race just to keep the system happy. It doesn't matter in the short term because I only bet on races where I have a previous rating for at least half the horses. Then when those previously untested horses have run a couple of races agains horses for which I have some ratings I run the system backwards to create a more accurate starting rate for these 'unratable' races.

KV

[shoto]

Thanks KV. I've never really spent alot of time on the jockey factor. If you don't mind me asking, how much of a difference do you feel it makes for you?

[syllabus23]

The funny thing is year after year the system performs badly at some courses (Ascot for e.g, always -10%) and year after year it performs well at others (Belmont nearly always +10 to 15%). Not only that, some courses have pretty consistently good months and bad months. Pinjarra for example Nov +30%, Dec +40%, Jan +25% and the rest of the year crap.

Nice day at Pinjarra Kenny.They keep you coming back.

For pure racing spectacle the Spring and Autumn carnivals are a joy and privilege to witness.I love them.The best thoroughbreds in this part of the world with the best jockeys fighting for top honours.It's the way it should be.

Tough time for punters though.Even the good provincial horses are reserved for these seasons.Hidden away under shade trees from the heat of summer and kept away from the flint hard winter tracks.They emerge to tantalise us during the pleasant months.

I find that my most successful punting is done during the off seasons.Only a few good horses around,just a handful trying to win.Despite all of the dodgy manouvering by the shysters it still seems easier to make money on the punt.

I'm going up to Taree tomorrow,was at Muswellbrook yesterday and Gosford last Sunday.If you don't believe that the "locals" know what's going to win most of the races,try attending these kind of meetings.It's an education.

Do your results indicate better returns during the off seasons??? Perhaps not,it's a bit like sex (if I recall) we all come at the same thing from different angles.Anyway.I really enjoyed your post.Good luck with your methods.They are based on sound logic and reason and clearly work for you.

[Paddy]

I rate all horses on the actual weight carried after allowances.
I used to penalise 3Kg apprentices 0.95Kg, 2Kg apprentices 0.35Kg and 1.5Kg apprentices 0.325Kg.
Now I assess each jockey on their performance over past races. I keep an average of whether their latest (up to 100) horses did better or worse than expected when they rode them. I limit the bonus or penalty to + or - 3Kg in case the jockey hasn't had many rides to form a good average but I usually find the range is + or - 2Kg from the best jockey to the newest apprentice. All against actual weight carried.
KV


Thanks again KV. Now comprende.

[KennyVictor]

Thanks KV. I've never really spent alot of time on the jockey factor. If you don't mind me asking, how much of a difference do you feel it makes for you?

In my humble opinion the jockey is the second most important thing to the horse. Some other factors - like barriers - I prefer to ignore. People so overrate barrier importance I sometimes find I might score a couple of extra winners factoring them in but actually loose out on financial return because the winners I get are overall shorter priced. The success of the outside barrier system that went around on this forum a while ago almost proves that point.

Kenny

[KennyVictor]

Tough time for punters though.Even the good provincial horses are reserved for these seasons.Hidden away under shade trees from the heat of summer and kept away from the flint hard winter tracks.They emerge to tantalise us during the pleasant months.


Mate, when you put it that poetically it's almost a pleasure to lose! :-)

I tend to do best in June and August and not so bad in July. I put that down to Belmont coming on line. I can't believe what a contrast there is between Ascot and Belmont as far as my fortunes go. Never been to the courses but I wonder if the preparation area at Ascot is too close to the drinking trough. :-)

[shoto]

...
The funny thing is year after year the system performs badly at some courses (Ascot for e.g, always -10%) and year after year it performs well at others (Belmont nearly always +10 to 15%). Not only that, some courses have pretty consistently good months and bad months. Pinjarra for example Nov +30%, Dec +40%, Jan +25% and the rest of the year crap.
You need a lot of results to work a system on a by month basis (which is why I stick to WA - easily available data) but (if you haven't already) you may want to consider the time of year and course when you run some of your systems. It could explain some runs of outs.
I have a few theories on the whys and wherefores of this up and down performance but I would be interested to hear what you guys feel the reasons for this may be.



Well I've been twisting the grey matter around this question, and I haven't really come up with anything that would hold water. Obviously some horses are suited to some tracks, going, etc, but this does not account for the figures in the way you've broken them down KV. Why do you think the results pan out this way?

Also would I be correct in assuming that "well-tweaked" margins refers to something other than the 'standard' measures most often used - ie 1.5 kgs to a length?

[KennyVictor]

Well I've been twisting the grey matter around this question, and I haven't really come up with anything that would hold water. Obviously some horses are suited to some tracks, going, etc, but this does not account for the figures in the way you've broken them down KV. Why do you think the results pan out this way?

I'm OK with statistics and what not but I'm just a novice at this racing game. I was hoping for some more suggestions from the seasoned campaigners. As Syllabus suggests perhaps different quality of horses at different times of year. I don't know how many horses travel to WA for races at different times - I only have form on horses that have run in WA so horses from NSW, SA, etc get under my Radar. Perhaps as you say my system suits more open tracks, I've only got maps of three WA tracks so I can't check that. I just don't know if there are unknown (human interference) factors which vary from track to track. I'd like to think not.

Also would I be correct in assuming that "well-tweaked" margins refers to something other than the 'standard' measures most often used - ie 1.5 kgs to a length?

Yes, I reckon a horse that just sprinted 1000 metres on a fast track on a balmy summers afternoon and won by a length might have been considered to have won comfortably. On the other hand if a couple of horses had just ploughed through 3200 metres of mud and slush in the teeth of a gale the winner by one length might consider he'd just had a close race.