Some quick stats

[dinodog]

hi

that all sounds great , but you when combine all those "facts" , guess what, it doesn't happen

[Privateer]

I don't believe I said they did! "interesting" is the key word, make what you will of the figures.

[Ryan]

I believe that the analysis of statistical information as provided by Privateer is the basis of establishing a sensible betting strategy. So "dinodog" you say "when you combine those facts and guess what, it doesn't happen" that is not entirely correct - not simply black & white like you imply. It would be dependent on your own interpretation of the facts as they appear and your own application of them to your strategy. Of course it is not feasible to base a strategy on the analysis of one days racing but over say a year the information collated would be invaluable to any punter.

Good work Privateer.

Ryan

[Placegetter]

Finishing in the top 5 last start and having a place strike rate greater than 50% are crucial in my system. Are you using any particular software to run these figures Privateer? I'm a little intrigued as my ratings are very manual.

[supersoul]

12% of winners had a place strike rate of less than 40%

31% of winners had a place strike rate of less than 50%

28% of winners were listed at better than 10/1 in newspaper markets :smile:

28% of winners were not in the top 5 in average prizemoney won

42% of winners did not finish 1 or 2 at previous start

25% of winners rised more than 2kg in weight from previous start

17% of winners did not finish in the first 5 at their previous start

Just another way of looking at it...

Now, I just want to get at those winners above between 5/1 to 10/1 at the bookies... reliably- say 40% strike rate. Then I can turn pro punter!

[Privateer]

I'll tell you what "Elton", you use your stats and I'll use mine. Your comments emphasise losers and negativity, a surefire way to wind up broke!

I had intended to provide these stats on a regular basis as an aid to fellow punters attempting to beat the TAB/Bookies. Obviously that is a waste of time.

[Privateer]

On 2002-04-19 21:08, Placegetter wrote:
Finishing in the top 5 last start and having a place strike rate greater than 50% are crucial in my system. Are you using any particular software to run these figures Privateer?


No, my work is also manual and took me an hour to work out. Your method sounds like that of a friend of mine, a very successful punter.

[mr magic]

Privateer's figures have merit.
Anyone who doesn't want to pour over form for hours can get some nice winners backing horses who meet the following criteria;
1. Win rate 25%+ and place rate 50%+
2. Placed last start
3. Top 5 in average $$$
4. Barrier in the inside half
5. Placed 50%+ distance starts
6. Last start 21 days or less.
Sounds a lot but if you back a horse that meets 5 of the 6 criteria you won't be far away.
EG today 4 selections Syd,Mel,Bris
Sydney - Hot Riff and Glenn ( one placed, one unplaced )
Brisbane - Raw Instinct (2nd) Mr Omega and Nauders ( both won around $5 - $6 mark )
Melbourne - no qualifiers
Takes an hour or so to do 3 meetings. I use it if I'm having a few fun bets where I haven't done the form and sometimes I wonder why I just don't stick to it solely!!

[supersoul]

Hi Privateer
Don't get on yer high horse too soon! I was not being negative- I was merely looking at your stats in the light of possible high value/price winners.

The most obvious stats are also the ones which makes a horse so popular and the price down to no value/even money. Agreed? But for a "significant" number of winners, their obvious stats made them look poorer choices, and thus they won with good prices.

This is where good profits are waiting for those who can identify some other (quirky?) stat or fact to pick these longer shots.

[Placegetter]

On 2002-04-20 08:46, Privateer wrote:

No, my work is also manual and took me an hour to work out. Your method sounds like that of a friend of mine, a very successful punter.


Quite possibly the case Privateer, as I bought my system in the UK. I've tried to enhance it, but "it ain't broke" as the saying goes.

[Privateer]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Privateer on 2002-05-13 08:14 ]</font>

[Maya]

placegetter,
could expand more on your system? Is it still available in the UK?

[Placegetter]

On 2002-04-21 17:47, Maya wrote:
placegetter,
could expand more on your system? Is it still available in the UK?


Are we allowed to advertise on this forum?

I'm not too sure if the system is available anymore and I'm kind of hesitant to just list the rules. Totally evasive I know, but I'm sure you would work out why.

Having said that there is a system available in "Sunny" Queensland which I have bought which comes up with great selections. You do the detective work.

PS. I expect a commission on that one!

I've used stats for the basis of systems - they work well some weeks, but poorly on others.

the problem is in good races, there 5 horses or so that meet most of the criteria - so one needs to eliminate using other methods.

I normally look for
20% win rate, 50% place rate
50% place/win record at distance/track
one of the top prizemoney winners
finished within 3 lengths of winner last start.
good barrier and weight.

Does anyone here use speed ratings? - they work great in certain races

Mr Magic what is ment by top 5 in average$$$ also Placed 50%+ distance starts. Why didn.t sri lanka and kurrajong mist race 3 sat 20 at rosehill qualifie. Hope you can explain it for me as I am lookine for an easy way of picking winners ( arn't we all)

Mr Magic can you explaain to me what you mean in average $$$ allso placed 50%+distance starts.Why wasn't sri lanca and kurrajong mist qualifiers sat 20/4 rosehill race 3

[Bhagwan]

Dear Privateer;
Your statistics are great food for thought. I feel more should should offer similar possitive offerings.
Heres one to test out .

Out of the 5 highest average prize money.
Back all of the ones paying $6.00 or more in races with 9 or more runners.

[Privateer]

Glad you like 'em Bhagwan...

If you were to ask the average punter this question "what do you think the percentage of placed favourites are at Metro race meetings" what do you think the answer would be??? 75%? 80%.....Try 55%!! That's PLACED favourites! Surprised?

So theoretically, backing the favourites for a place using a standard bet would required each favourite to pay a TAB dividend of around $1.80 per horse to simply break even.

Being extremely generous and allowing the % of placed faves to stand at 60% would require a dividend of $1.65 per horse also just to break even.

Place punting can be profitable (as per my selection of Glen Monarch BR8 in other forum) but in order to make money, steer clear of the favourite as the odds are definitely not in your favour.

Remember this one too....the absolute WORST strike rate for favourites to be placed is down the straight 1200m at Flemington. Bookies LOVE those races!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Privateer on 2002-04-25 19:56 ]</font>

[mr magic]

Amateur,
1. Ave $$$ means the top five horses re their prizemoney earned per start. Eg 20 starts, $120000 = $6000 average per start. It's a class filter ( pretty raw though ).
2. 50%+ distance places means .. eg 5 starts at distance for 1 win 2 places is ok, 1 win 0 places or 1 place is not.
3. Sri Lanka and Kurrajong Mist must have either a) not met 5 or 6 of the 6 criteria b) been in a race where another horse met the same criteria and therefore was a no bet race or c) I'd had too many beers and missed them.

Thanks mr magic. You don't drink and gamble at the same time do you. Only joking as I like your post. have you or anyone else had dealings with a Mr odds. Multiple betting. His name is Deniss and seems nice enought but i suspect a con.
Leslie

[Placegetter]

Remember this one too....the absolute WORST strike rate for favourites to be placed is down the straight 1200m at Flemington. Bookies LOVE those races!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Privateer on 2002-04-25 19:56 ]</font>


Ahhh, that brought back memories Privateer. I had Notoire at SEVENTY to 1 on one of those days. Gotta love the straight.

_________________
Pick it to win, back it to place.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Placegetter on 2002-04-26 22:20 ]</font>

[Bartman]

Privateer I notice you mention place percentages, have you found any importance in win percentages and how they relate to winners?

Bartman

[Privateer]

Bartman

The place percentage was the better indicator to finding both winners and placegetters and a good source of finding consistency generally.

Privateer