A SUCCESSFUL SYSTEM

[Chuck]

This is a system i have worked with for the past few years that has turned in some great reseults!
RULES:
1. Same/Dropping in class
2. TAB no. 1-6
3. Barrier 1-6
4. One of the Top 4 backed runners (ignore races with odds-on favs)
5. 1st of 2nd in at least one of last two starts
6. Fitness Pattern one of the top 3 for the distance* (see below)
7. Race must be 1800m or below

PLAYABLE RACES:
-Fixed weight open 2YO
-Fixed weight open 3YO
-Class 6 or better up to 1600m
-Welters
-Open Hcps
-Qualitys

NON-PLAYABLE RACES
-Hurdles/Steeples
-Maidens
-2YO Hcps
-Mares
-Class 1-5
-3YO fillies
-WFA

*This is if you have access to statistics regarding Fitness patterns

Look at the results before you knock the system!

Chuck

[darkydog2002]

CHUCK.Are the FINESS PATTERNS relating to Barry Blakemores work?
The system itself is one of the better ones I have seen.
Cheers.
darky.

[Chuck]

yeah thats right...have you read any of blakemore's books?

[darkydog2002]

Hi Chuck.Yes.
The one I am reading now is THE SECRETS OF CLASS AND OTHER KEY FACTORS.
I rather like his work.
Cheers.
darky.

[Chuck]

got it in front of me right as i type this message! In fact if you remember my previous signature for the forums came from the book! (3rd to last line of 2nd last paragraph on page 7) i.e. "Class will always prevail over fitness when the quality of the horses is not equal"

[Chuck]

What other horse-racing/gambling books do you have Darky? i find them rather useful...got loads!

[darkydog2002]

I used to correpond with Barry when he was formulating the book.
A very helpful fellow.
Cheers.
darky.

[Chuck]

What other horse-racing/gambling books do you have Darky? i find them rather useful...got loads!

[darkydog2002]

COMPUTER DISCOVERIES IN THOROUGHBRED HANDICAPPING (author William QUIRIN) - An oldie but a goodie.
Mis placed somewhere WINNING MORE (author Don Scott )
PITTSBURG PHIL (of course)
ALL of Malcolm Knowles Research.
PICKING WIZARD WINNERS ( the manuscript)
PAUL SEGARS 2 books (wonder if he,s still alive.)

What would you recommend ?
Its so hard to find anything of value thats related to Australian racing conditions.
Cheers.
darky.

[Chuck]

"Commonsense Punting - A Mathematical Approach" by Roger Dedman...a good read with some really good thoughts about odds and some tactics for things like quadrellas...
"Theory of gambling and statistical logic"
"Horse racing theory and practise"
"How to make money in one day at the track"
"Money Secrets at the track"

I also have three others but i can't think of their names right now so will get back to you

Chuck

[Chuck]

one of the three turned out to be "Horse Racing Theory and Practise - Revised and Updated"- by PAUL SEGAR - this is a great one as you mentioned

Still can't find or remember the other two!!!!


Chuck

[Chuck]

I found them - tucked away in the bookshelf
"Horse Racing Logic" - Glendon Jones
"25 ways to beat the horses" - Walter Gibson
"Secrets of professional turf betting" - Robert Bacon
"Commonsense Handicapping" Dirk someone..

chuck

[darkydog2002]

ok.And thanks.

[darkydog2002]

I will see if I can get hold of them through Malcolm or the HORSEMANS bookshop.
Cheers.
Darcy.

[trench digger]

Have you guys read Blakemores most recent work "Weights Right" ?

I think its by far his best.

Chuck no offence intended if I'm wrong but I suspect you incorporate some of Blakemores theorys when deciding your selections for the tipping comp.

TD

[Chuck]

well not really...i do use his ideas for reference but i guess it sometimes turns out that way!!...after all, its only a tipping comp ;-)

[darkydog2002]

Hi Trenchdigger.No .I havent seen that one.
Is it still available?
Cheers.
darky.

[thoroughbred]

Before you all get carried away with this method let me point out that it's a "Golden Pin" system.

Below is a quote from some research that you might find interesting.

QUOTE

Once upon a time I sent away several of my hard earned $$$$
to a fine fellow who, in return, sent me a magnificently
bound set of tables, rules, suggestions which were guaranteed
to put me on the winning way in my quest for El Dorado.

When you carved away all the verbiage the ‘rules’ boiled
down to a set of ‘motherhood’ statements that we all
learned at Ian Barns’ knee. You know the sort of thing Good
Jockey, Good Horse, Good Draw, Good Weight, Good Price, Good
Bet.

In addition there was a set of "Fitness Pattern" tables based
on (as I discovered later) a mathematically flawed concept, and
some selection instructions.

Now the various rules and instructions weren’t too difficult
to program, as was one other rule which I haven’t mentioned
yet ... the horse had to be in the first four lines of betting.

So, away we went with an overnight run through nine previous
years worth of Australian races. Totally impartial, completely
in accordance with the ‘rules’.

Strike Rate 18.57%. Small loss.

Then it dawned on me .. the following night we did an identical
run through identical data but ignored the rules completely.
Except for one. The horse must be in the first four lines of
betting. I made the machine pick one of the top four favourites
at random.

Strike Rate 18.75%. Small loss.

Ran the same thing several more times using just Metro, Metro
Sats, Metro Class, Provincial, Country, and on and on with
(as I expected) the same result.

It didn’t matter a damn what the ‘rules’ and tables said.
The whole system depended totally on the selection being in
the top four favourites.

I wrote to the originator and advised him of my findings.
He agreed replying "I agree, without this factor [first four
favourites] the XXXXXX goes nowhere."

UNQUOTE

Caveat emptor.

[trench digger]

Hi Thoroughbred,

Blakemores stuff is more a method and set of ideas in respect of Form Analysis rather than a mechanical system.

While not a path to the holy grail they are a set of original ideas that have helped me to become a more consistent punter.

Your quote seems to be very similar to thoughts I have read by one of Blakemores great rivals who himself could be accused to be a seller of Golden Pin Systems.

Not from Tassie are you??

[trench digger]

Darky,

should be still available only published in the last few months.

It brings together the last 2 books nicely.

[thoroughbred]

Hi Thoroughbred,

Your quote seems to be very similar to thoughts I have read by one of Blakemores great rivals who himself could be accused to be a seller of Golden Pin Systems.

Not from Tassie are you??


The quote is from one of Biggs books, and (as far as I'm aware) he sells ratings not systems.

Tassie ?????????? Too darn cold for me down there. My local tracks are Ascot & Belmont :-)

[Squirter]

Thoroughbred,

Have you read his new book ?

Cheers.

[Chuck]

Well thoroughbred i gained $630 in todays comp basic selections roughly on this system...and you say its too mechanical?

[thoroughbred]

Have you read his new book ?


Not yet, I've got it but am saving it for my next fly-in to the Kimberleys.

[thoroughbred]

Well thoroughbred i gained $630 in todays comp basic selections roughly on this system...and you say its too mechanical?

No, Chuck, I don't say it's too mechanical. I say that as long as you restrict your bets to the top 4 in the odds and your bets are relatively evenly spaced through those top 4 then regardless of the rules you'll have a long term SR of +/- 19%.

:-)

[Chuck]

Trenchdigger - I've been given Barry Blakemore's "Weights Right" recently and it is as good as youve been telling - I recommend it to anyone who is looking for a good horse racing read

Chuck