Place %

[partypooper]

Another question for the statistic boys, does anyone have a table showing the S/R using % only? i.e. whats the place S/R (next run) for horses with a previous place S/R of say 50%, 60%, 70%, etc? regardless of any other parameters, can anyone help?

[thoroughbred]

whats the place S/R (next run) for horses with a previous place S/R of say 50%, 60%, 70%, etc? regardless of any other parameters, can anyone help?

PREV PSR%..NOW PSR%....POT%

10 - 19.......15.3....-63.7
20 - 29.......23.2....-53.7
30 - 39.......31.1....-46.0
40 - 49.......39.6....-38.9
50 - 59.......49.3....-33.1
60 - 69.......60.0....-27.1
70 - 79.......69.1....-23.8
80 - 89.......80.1....-19.1
90+...........96.7....-18.3

Sample : 1,529,613 performances of horses with at least 4 previous starts

[sportznut]

The figures for 80%+ are okay considering there's no other rules applied at all.

[partypooper]

Great stuff, thanks thouroughbred. Those figures are much better than I'd expected.
Were those divis TAB? if so maxi divi would surely give us something very interesting here.
Comforting to know that basically we can predict with near certainty that if a horse with 50% S/R will basically give us a 50% chance of running a place next run , and that's without ANY knowledge of racing or horseflesh at all!!!

[thoroughbred]

Were those divis TAB?
50% S/R will basically give us a 50% chance of running a place next run , and that's without ANY knowledge of racing or horseflesh at all!!!


No they're AAP SP'S ......... tab's are very difficult to collect, and not much use ....... vic hides in a mass of Javascript/cookies, NSW is about to change, lawd only knows what they do in my home state (WA).

The best long term handicapping results I've ever seen is by people who have NO use for extensive analysis of going and class and barrier and ... and ... as applied to individual horses.

Check out Nick Aubrey an actuary who makes his pennies (lots) on market fluctuations, peter faulks a programmer statistician, roger biggs a statistician ....... over the long term the stats win out every time and they've all proved it.

Anyway, a merry christmas to all ......... I'll be having mine in the heat of Wyndham.