A Novel Approach ©

[Chrome Prince]

For a bit of fun only I stress....

Seeing most horses that performed very well last start are "unders" and many horses "put in a shocker", and that often a horse at value wins a race after a bad run. You know the type, it wins and then you look back at it's form and think "hey, how did I overlook it, the odds were juicy and it's form wasn't that bad".

Well here's a fun exercise that throws up some great priced winners (just put on the kettle coz it could be a bit of a wait).

RULES

Get your formguide and cross out every horse's last start, don't even look, ignore it altogether.

Now make your selections or assessments using the second last run.

So if a horse's form is
1x410
you're looking at a last start winner!!!

Be interesting to see what transpires.

[DR RON]

Chrome,

Do you have any stats on those horses? I would assume the ones with form 1 0 would have the lowest strike rate but highest ave winning price.
I would also assume that they all have a loss on turnover. Maybe a filter such as running in the same or lower class than the winning run.

[woof43]

If you have single rating figures for each run, you should also be able to find the Standard Deviation for each runner, this will quickly identify those performance types you mentioned, an then you will be able to assign a probability envelope.

The standard deviation figure is one of the most powerful figures you can use in racing.

Cheers

[Chrome Prince]

Chrome,

Do you have any stats on those horses? I would assume the ones with form 1 0 would have the lowest strike rate but highest ave winning price.
I would also assume that they all have a loss on turnover. Maybe a filter such as running in the same or lower class than the winning run.

Hi DR RON,

I'm not literally saying back every 410 nag or anything like that, just in general discount or rule out the last run of every horse in the race and do the picks from there. There's some good priced winners bob up. Of course you'd have to incorporate class and distance etc, everything you'd normally do, just omitting the last start whether it be good or bad.

It's just another way of looking at the race, doing something a bit different to the herd.

Problem is, that the last run of a horse has the biggest influence on the next result in terms of stats. BUT you do get overlay value when the mob run away from an otherwise good horse who put in an ordinary run last start.

[Imagele]

If you have single rating figures for each run, you should also be able to find the Standard Deviation for each runner, this will quickly identify those performance types you mentioned, an then you will be able to assign a probability envelope.

The standard deviation figure is one of the most powerful figures you can use in racing.

Cheers
Woof
Just for us mere mortals, what the hell are you talking about?
Standard deviation. Probability envelope.
What goes.?

[woof43]

The Standard deviation is a simple measure of the spread of ratings score/data.
It provides a story behind the data/runs, without actually having to explore all the data/runs.
Once you explore this concept you will find most starters conform to a Normal Distribution whereas 1 stdev from the mean encapsulates 68% of a runners starts, 2 stdev equates to approx 95% of a runners starts an so on.

In greyhound racing cause they run so consistently its easier to show how you'd use this data.

say we have two dogs Dog A)mean time of 31.55 with a Stdev of .141 Dog B) mean time of 31.62 with a Stdev of .176

Now if you were just comparing these two dogs Example#1 Dog A runs an average race, then what is the probabilty of DogB beating him, we can do the following (31.55 minus 31.62)divided/ .176 this provides you with a zscore of -.398, now all you need to do, is a search on the net or use excel formulas or find an in any introductory statistics textbook an from that zscore table you will find the answer being .3446 that means when Dog A runs an average time Dog B will beat him 34.46% of the time, then you just reverse Example #1 to find when Dog B runs an average race whats the probabilty of Dog A beating him 31.62-31.55)divided/.141 =.496 look up the zscore table an the probabilities of Dog A beating him is .6915 or 69.15% of the time.

Now you would take this a step further by knowing what was the average rating to win todays race so you would substitute one of the above examples by this new avg win rating.

To further refine the above you would then say make an adjustment to say Dog A mean score if he has drawn box1 in todays race but in turn his Stdev would become tighter as his performances would be more consistent..an so i hope you can see the power of just using Stdev..

[Imagele]

Woof.
Thanks.

[stugots]

i can feel my brain running out my ears

[partypooper]

Or you could just back any horse with the 3rd letter "R"

[Shaun]

You have been reading that mag haven't you partypooper

[partypooper]

shaun, NOT for a "LOOOONG" time mate, but it did come up with AR3-8 FERERONOCHE on saturday last!!!! amongst others !!!!!! ho ho ho

[KennyVictor]

Thanks for that enlightenment Woof. I at least know most of the terms even if I haven't used them the way you have. I think with the aid of the statistics book I've got out of the library at the moment I may be able to grasp it and there may be some gold at the end of it.

Thanks to Stugs and Partypooper too. Your comments were the best laugh I've had for a long time.

KV

[sportznut]

The Standard deviation is a simple measure of the spread of ratings score/data.
It provides a story behind the data/runs, without actually having to explore all the data/runs.
Once you explore this concept you will find most starters conform to a Normal Distribution whereas 1 stdev from the mean encapsulates 68% of a runners starts, 2 stdev equates to approx 95% of a runners starts an so on.

In greyhound racing cause they run so consistently its easier to show how you'd use this data.

say we have two dogs Dog A)mean time of 31.55 with a Stdev of .141 Dog B) mean time of 31.62 with a Stdev of .176

Now if you were just comparing these two dogs Example#1 Dog A runs an average race, then what is the probabilty of DogB beating him, we can do the following (31.55 minus 31.62)divided/ .176 this provides you with a zscore of -.398, now all you need to do, is a search on the net or use excel formulas or find an in any introductory statistics textbook an from that zscore table you will find the answer being .3446 that means when Dog A runs an average time Dog B will beat him 34.46% of the time, then you just reverse Example #1 to find when Dog B runs an average race whats the probabilty of Dog A beating him 31.62-31.55)divided/.141 =.496 look up the zscore table an the probabilities of Dog A beating him is .6915 or 69.15% of the time.

Now you would take this a step further by knowing what was the average rating to win todays race so you would substitute one of the above examples by this new avg win rating.

To further refine the above you would then say make an adjustment to say Dog A mean score if he has drawn box1 in todays race but in turn his Stdev would become tighter as his performances would be more consistent..an so i hope you can see the power of just using Stdev..

What the....?

[Bhagwan]

One way to use this novell idea ,would be to narrow ones selection down to 2 Mules .e.g . top 2 in the market either pre-post or TAB , tipsters poll , ext.

Now use it`s SP price for it`s 2nd last run ,we are assuming all the relavent form has been done for you & this will be reflected in it`s final price.

Back the one with the lowest price for it`s 2nd last run.
I have found it`s best to ignore Mules which were paying $2.00 & less for it`s 2nd last run , very poor SR

Cheers