First 3 in the Tipters Poll

[Benny]

I have been watching the first 3 in the poll for a couple of weeks.

The results are: 108 selections for 25 winners a strike rate of 23% which is not bad. I will contine to watch this.

Benny

[Chrome Prince]

Have you also looked at eliminating any horse which is picked on top by all the journos.
Some great value in their alternate selections.

Nudge Nudge Wink Wink (Coat tug).

[Mark]

I have been watching the first 3 in the poll for a couple of weeks.

The results are: 108 selections for 25 winners a strike rate of 23% which is not bad. I will contine to watch this.

Benny


108 selections means you've only looked at 36 races. Much too small a sample to get carried away with Benny, as 1 Saturday alone will give you more than 36 races.

[Benny]

The results up to 27/12 are 45 winners from 202 selections still around 22.3% s.r

I'm not yet ready to bet as this is just a small sample. I may bet after 3 months results.

Benny

[topsy99]

one of the reasons i dont look at this type of method is that it has a selection in every race. makes a punter flat out like a duck paddling
take it easy - have fun. and we dont learn anything other than betting someone else's picks.

i recall the old royal routine system which someone gave me in 1962
it had a shilling on the first selection of each tipster with a minimum of 10 tipsters in the newspaper poll. e.g. 10 lines running on each race talk about a major project.
i never did find out if it worked or if anyone else ever made it work.
does anyone out there know?

[darkydog2002]

TOPSY. That was the first system I ever bought.A complete dud.

Did you ever try the PATARINA.?Always wanted to know about this one.
Cheers .
darky

[Mark]

Ah the good old Royal Routine.
Not the fastest way to the poor house, but you get there eventually.

[topsy99]

imagine paying yourself day labour to run the royal routine.
you'd be worth a fortune.
certainly a lot of effort goes into staying solvent in racing.
its almost a good enough reason to give it away.

[darkydog2002]

Your not wrong there Topsy.
Cheers.
darky.

[Shaun]

is that a 22%sr for the top 3 horses...backing 3 horse a race is that what you mean....whats the average dividend....my top selection alone has a 23% SR and i am still losing money on it....my top 3 has a 64% SR with evearge divi of $5.35

[Sportz]

I think he means a 22% strike rate for each individual horse, so I guess that's 66% strike rate per race (give or take a bit for scratchings).

[La Mer]

I think he means a 22% strike rate for each individual horse, so I guess that's 66% strike rate per race (give or take a bit for scratchings).

I doubt that there would be a 66% strike-rate - a strike-rate of that nature defies the maths and my experiecne of the tipsters poll would be that the top-selection would win more than the second, which in turn would win more than the third etc. My estimation would be that the strike-rate would be closer to 50% for the top-three.

Similar with Shaun's comments - with a 23% strike-rate the claim of 64% in the top-three does not hold-up unless there are a very small number of selections - simply in deference to the maths of it all.

[Shaun]

WELL IN MY CASE IT IS ABOUT 20-25 RACES A WEEK IS WHAT I COVER

[Sportz]

The 22% Benny was referring to was an average of ALL selections, so undoubtedly the top selections' strike rate would be higher than that, probably around 27 or 28%. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a 60%+ strike rate for the top 3 picks, especially over a fairly short period of time.

[Sportz]

Hmmm, just been looking back over some recent results and I have to admit that the 60%+ IS probably unrealistic. You're right, I reckon 50% is about all you could expect long term. Brisbane and Sydney both had a couple of good weeks but levelled off while Melbourne seemed to be difficult just about every week. Think Benny might have just been looking at 1 or 2 good weeks.

[Bhagwan]

If one is looking at tipsters poll say the Australian.
All paper polls have the same SR as one another .

1st sel 30% =30%
2nd sel 15% =45%
3rd sel 10% =55%

This is based on 2 years results of all newspapers in Australia ,Individual Tipsters in those papers , Radio Tipsters , Jockey tips, Spotsman newspaper.ext.

I feel the best way to use these is to treat it like a 2 horse race & seperate the Top 2 selections (45%SR) , once you have worked out your selection , only bet it if it`s paying $2.80+ at jump time.