Duritz's prices, WA and VIC

[Duritz]

OK for the hell of it, 80% prices (value odds all the way) for these events!

Good luck, I won't be doing much on the two Sandown events, they're average midweekers, the Perth ones are the better ones to focus on I think.

PS - the Perth ones are pre scratchings. Any significant scratchings I might post a change later.

SANDOWN

race 5 3.20
seln mgn price name
1 0.0 $5.4 POWER AND FAITH
5 0.9 $8.7 IONA AVENUE
2 1.0 $9.4 VALASHKA
12 1.2 $10.4 COLDALE
9 1.4 $12.4 FUCHSIA LADY

race 7 4.37
seln mgn price name
6 0.0 $7.7 SENSATIONAL SWIN
3 0.0 $7.8 ETCHED IN GOLD
9 0.5 $9.5 CEDAR TEE
10 0.5 $9.6 MILLENNIUM EA-NZ
4 0.9 $12.9 OUR SPUR
7 1.2 $14.7 LANDLOPER

ASCOT

race 6 6.32
seln mgn price name
1 0.0 $4.4 STORMY NOVA
4 0.6 $5.9 MOET MAGIC-NZ
5 0.8 $6.9 IS AMAZING
7 1.5 $11.4 SIR CHALMERS
8 1.5 $11.5 YERILLA STORM
3 2.1 $19.1 LOCAL LEGEND

race 7 7.07
seln mgn price name
7 0.0 $2.5 SAN KOO
1 1.6 $6.8 LAKESIDE SONG
13 2.4 $14.6 GOLD SERVICE
6 2.5 $18.3 BLESSED TUDOR

race 8 7.47
seln mgn price name
15 0.0 $3.2 FREE AT LAST
11 0.7 $4.6 MR SANDGROPER
3 1.8 $9.7 TRUE STEEL
13 2.1 $14.4 CROWN PROSECUTOR
8 2.6 $24.7 REIGNING FORT

Good luck! Very keen San Koo by the way. Weak race, hard to see it losing. Hope it's a little bit longer than my price.

[Shaun]

I thought i might add my ratings just to see how we compare...i don't provide prices just the oder od selection

11 MR SANDGROPER
3 TRUE STEEL
15 FREE AT LAST
13 CROWN PROSECUTOR

what i would recomend is deleting anything paying less than $4

[moeee]

Go DURITZ!
Well done for the effort put in.
Might be more appealing to the eye if you posted your prices to 100%.

[Duritz]

Backed the first winner, Power and Faith, 5.45 on Austote. Just an overlay, but still an overlay. That's the good thing about framing a market to 80%, even if they're only just an overlay, they're still 20% better than what you think their TRUE price is (@100%), and are therefore a good overlay still.

Next race I did in Melbourne, Race 7, looks very very even but there also looks to be a nice bit of value in it. At this point it looks as though three of the top four are overlays.

Good luck, and go San Koo later!!

Duritz

[Duritz]

Well the good thing San Koo did what we wanted, the previous in Perth we were accurate but as I said, it wasn't really a betting race, and unfortunately this one is looking the same. The Groper isn't long enough odds, especially on BetFair where he is shorter, this is probably a no bet race unfortunately. I took an all up on the tote of San Koo the win into Free at Last and Mr Sandgroper in a quinella, probably just cheer for that

Good luck all

[Duritz]

I'll post some 80% odds for Bendigo today too if anyone's interested. I don't keep records on how my top picks go, just how my value betting goes, but of yesterdays five top picks three of them won, paying about (on memory) on the tote 4.20, 2.40 and 3.0, one ran second paying 1.30 or so a place and the other ran third paying 4.50 a place. Not enough to retire on, but at least they performed well.

I have left the odds at 80% because that is how I have them for my own purposes and I couldn't be bothered re-calculating them lol.

race 4 2.10
seln mgn price name
5 0.0 $4.3 MEADOW
6 0.0 $4.3 SHENANDOAH
2 1.4 $10.0 MERLINS LAW
3 1.4 $10.1 SURFIE PETE

race 6 3.20
seln mgn price name
2 0.0 $4.8 STAT
12 0.6 $6.5 KYLIE GIRL
11 1.2 $9.6 TUFF AND RUFF
6 1.3 $10.1 PRESENCE
9 1.3 $10.1 BOLLIWIN
4 1.3 $10.3 YOUNG ANAKIN

race 7 3.55
seln mgn price name
6 0.0 $3.1 EDGY AFFAIR
2 0.8 $4.6 NEDIYMS IMAGE
7 2.1 $13.3 END OF MESSAGE
3 2.2 $13.9 MASTER MCKENZIE

Good luck.

[moeee]

Well done Duritz.
Well I'm not yet placing my order,but congratulations on not getting egg on your face.
I have taken note of your ratings and will modify them slightly to include my thoughts and will get back to you on how I went.

[Duritz]

Underrated the chances of Highclere. My mistake, all it's best ratings were at and beyond 2100 last prep, only got up to that distance last start, should have improved it's figure. Basically, it's best ratings last prep were about 4 kgs higher than the ratings figure I gave it today, which is why it wasn't in my selections.

This goes to prove a point I was making in another thread - there is no right or wrong answer and right or wrong way. The horse had ratings enough to clearly win that race but I didn't rate it up highly enough so it wasn't a selection. It's all about how you USE ratings that counts, which is why, I suppose, Mark Read has no problems letting his ratings be on the Ozeform site - ratings are ratings, you must do the FORM correctly if they are to be of any use though.

As for me, one race down today, done INCORRECTLY as it turns out. One thing's for sure though, I knew Meadow was under the odds at 1.70 or whatever it was. Non winners keep non winning. That is a truism.

[Duritz]

That's a better result!!! Value!!!!

[moeee]

Had $5 on Shenandoah
$2.50 on Tuff and Ruff
$10 on Edgy Affair
Outlaid $17.50
Returned $35

Don't forget to put a couple up tomorrow my good man.
Luv your stuff!

[Duritz]

No prob. Glad you had a win. Mucked up with Davidoff in the seventh though, assumed it was gone, been a while since it's been going any good, when I saw it open up about $4.0 on the tote I knew it was going to be the one to knock me off, and of course it did - I backed my top three in the race and they ran 2nd, 3rd and unp... Aah well, live and learn.

Am doing a couple today so will post whatever I have. It is a terrible meeting however so I will probably just do a couple of the early races. Have boxing day form to concentrate on yet, Melbourne and Perth.

Good luck.

[Duritz]

OK here's some ratings for those that are interested. Doesn't look to be much value after all in Race 1, thought there might be. Remember, these are 80% odds.

Good luck!

race 1 12.50
seln mgn price name
3 0.0 $3.1 KING PRECIEUX
2 0.3 $3.5 TSZYU
1 1.5 $7.5 PEARCEDALE
6 3.1 $40.2 JET FORCE

race 3 2.00
seln mgn price name
4 0.0 $4.9 PRODESSE
9 1.0 $8.6 SIR FLEX
3 1.1 $9.1 UMEDA
6 1.3 $10.2 ZALS
7 1.3 $10.2 KIND ACT
1 1.4 $10.8 ASSET SWOP
5 2.0 $19.3 VERSATILLA

race 7 4.20
seln mgn price name
5 0.0 $3.1 LITTLE DARLING
6 1.8 $9.7 HUGO GIRL-NZ
1 1.9 $11.4 KADESA
7 2.2 $15.5 WATERSTON
3 2.3 $15.6 ALL CHARISMA

[moeee]

Never got to see the ratings till late!
Hope there is something nice in race 7!

Thanks for your efforts Duritz!
Have a nice day to-morrow.

[moeee]

Be it presumptious of me,but Duritz,I think you may need to have a rethink on horses returning from a spell.
I thought Kadensa had good enough form to win the race.
But considering that 4 out of four newspaper tipsters had it on top,and it was showing $5 the win,obviously it had arrived at the track with only 3 legs.
So I went with little darling!
Still in front though!
Go Duritz.