TAB Favourites Plan

[Bhagwan]

TAB Favs Plan
Here`s a simple plan for those that are useless at picking winners.

We target all TAB Favs paying $2.80+ at jump time .
If a TAB Fav is paying less than this , no bet that race.
This has a great SR .

The possitive thing about this approach is that we are not targetting consistantly short prices ,which is the killer for most approaches.

We are assuming the Mule we are targeting has had all the form done for us, as reflected in it`s price .
It`s suprising how accurate the market can be.

The approach does show a level stakes profit mainly because we cease betting if 9 outs are struck ,then starting again once a selection gets up.

If we have 9 outs in a row ,recomence from 1 again, once a future winner gets up ,this is done to try & offset a dreaded run of outs of say 26 outs in a row if it were to happen.

Staking
1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,32=85

Have 5 banks of 85= 425 units.
Stop betting if you have 9 outs in a row (rare but it will happen) then recomence betting , once a selection gets up.

If a selection ends up paying less than required , we start from the beginning again & cop the loss ,we will recoup this with any future overs.

The Retirment staking plan should also work with this, targeting 2% with a min divisor of 2 .

If you go over past & future results you will see for yourself.

[jacfin]

Bhagwan
Does this mean that I've wasted my whole life studying form?
I checked 4 recent days using only gallops in the four main eastern states and came up with 27 winners from 110 eligible races. The profit starting with a $1 bet was $157. No wipeouts but the 8th bet was reached on 4 occasions.
My guess is that 9 losses in a row would happen about every 110 races on average so that would nett a tidy profit from each sequence.
Nice one !!!

[Chrome Prince]

A 14.50% LOT using TAB prices.

Interestingly, where there were 9 outs 99% of the time a winner came in within the next 2 or 3 bets paying more than $3.00.

How about this as a starting point.

>$2.80 on the tote
Last start won or placed
Racing within 7 days

A 3% POT, stake that and you'd have a tidy profit, but not a lot of action.

[Dalray]

Bhagwan , Chrome Prince

In the races paying $2.80 +

What % of all races are they?
Could someone tell me the Fav. S/R , Av. Odds, R.O.O
Also same for 2nd , 3rd , 4th Fav.

Tall order I know but could be vital information.

Have a Happy One.

Ray.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Dalray,
The $2.80+ make up approx 50% it will vary day to day.

SR of market order
1st Fav 30%
2nd Fav 15%
3rd Fav 10%
4th Fav 8%

[Dalray]

Thanks Bhagwan for your instant reply.

Query-Your saying the fav. S/R (30%) would be the same as any other race, yet the Run Off Outs would have to be higher, due to the price of $2.80 + ?
Where have I gone wrong ?.
Ray.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Jacfin ,
That`s serious results you have there, good to hear.

If one wanted to be more conservative , one could stop betting for the day if the 2 winner gets up for the day with 2 meetings for the day or 10th winner if 10 meetings on the day, ext.

[Bhagwan]

I misunderstood the question.
The $2.80+ selections get up approx 24% of the time.
The expected run of outs for this percentage should be 25.

It may not have occured yet ,but it will when one least expects it, so be prepared for it.
It may happen next month or next year .
Either way ,we will only be on the first 9 out of the 25 outs, hopefully there wont be another run of 25 outs straight afterwards.
That`s why we cease betting after 9 consecetive looses , then start again once one gets up for us .

The majority of the time ,the winner was struck within 8 bets.

[system]

so 76% of the time you can lay them,which means better odds.backing favs is dead money.presumption is the mother of all f**k ups.

[Church22]

I dont understand this?? can someone please explain

[Bhagwan]

The plan is still going very well , it has managed to double the bank in the last 14 days, betting every day.
I have experienced only one lot of 9 outs in a row & this was easily recovered.

It`s not much point betting these as lay bets because the lay odds will be very short , one has to keep in mind that the shorter the win price the greater the lay price .
E.g. if one wanted to lay a 10/1 horse to loose the lay price would be terrible, because its chance of not winning is very high as opposed to 6/4 chance where its chance of not winning is lower therefore its lay price will be higher.

I hope this answers your question?

Cheers.

[beton]

Bhagwan
Thanks for your insight. I have been having a deco at this. I have gone back to 20 dec and it shows about 60% place winners at about level stakes. With an aggressive staking plan this can get about 15% POT. This maybe a safer option.

Can anyone give me some stats from data base based on favourite $2.8+ at jump more than 7 runners place only and expected run of outs?

Thanks in advance and i hope everyone has a wealthy and healthy New Year.
Regards Beton

[Bhagwan]

The answer to your question

If chasing for the place ,it`s best to keep one`s bets to races with
8-12 runners only.
Test run over 10,000 races
Plc SR 60%
-4% LOT
longest run of outs =8

In races with 8-20
Plc SR 56%
-9% LOT
longest run of outs =9

Cheers

[Bhagwan]

I forgot to add that the median figure is 5 outs in a row.
That run of 8 outs, only appeared once in every 1000 bets.

Cheers.

[beton]

Bhagwan
thanks
I have been analysing this longhand to find a pattern. I have looked at 400 races. There seems to be approx 40% losers 13% consist of one loss followed by a win 11% consist of two losses followed by a win 9% three losses followed by a win. 33%of winners (placegetters) get up next. I am sure these figures would prove to be consistent. My first sample was really good then my second random sample brought in reality. All in all a good pattern is emerging.

I am working to eliminate the bulk of the losers from the betting as chasing them only produces a loss. recovery from the single losses seems crucial. I welcome any advice

regards
Beton

[miamiles]

Beton, Your info is interesting! In your post you say "33%of winners (placegetters) get up next". I am presuming that this means consecutive winners (or in this case placegetters) - am I right?
This is the kind of info I was looking for in my post in winning % of favs.

[beton]

Miamiles

Racing is random. Each race any horse can get up and win. The next race is a new set of criteria. There is hundreds of variables and literally thousands of combinations of those variables. however just as a weatherman can put a thousand variables together and based on past results predict tomorrow's with a fair degree of accuracy, a good punter can predict the winner of the next race.
Those who are not yet good punters or forecasters ie yours truly must rely history. A random series of events will repeat itself over and over changing slightly as the variables change slightly. Historically favorites get up and win 30% of the time and place 60% of the time and are no value as the prices are too short.
Bhagwan showed that by only targeting the upper priced favorites they won 24% of the time. When I looked at this i saw in my sample a high strike rate of placings. I figured that if a pattern was identified and a system was adapted a profit could be made on everyday betting year in year out on any track. I am being convinced as i do so it is a lot of work for very little return.

Having said this the pattern is showing which is that 60% are placegetters.There is good number of losing races followed by a placing race. Then there are lesser percentage of two losing races followed by a placing race. ditto with three and four etc to what will show one eight losers per 1000 bets. On the other side the placegetters are 60% compared with 40% Ie 50% more. Hence more races will have consecative place getters At present this shows 33% of them get up next.

I can eliminate a lot of losses but it comes with a cost. I will see what happens when I finish the analysis

Regards Beton

[Bhagwan]

Place Staking Plan
CRUSHER STAKING PLAN

Increase the Placegetter bet by one unit after each bet that gets up for us , keep doing this until you have broken even or in front.

E.G.
10,10,10,10Place,20,20P,30P ext.

Trying to pick a fixed pattern is like anylising shifting sand.
I feel it`s probable best to except it`s foybles & maybe have a stratergy to deal with it,

Cheers.

[Shaun]

Just did a quick check on yesterdays results using this system
outly $35
profit $16
ROI 46%
longest run of outs was 5
because of the dau night meetings i went race to race link this
ROCKHAMPTON (QR)
MUSWELLBROOK (NR)
COLAC (VR)

untill they were finished then went
CANTERBURY (SR)
MOONEE VALLEY (MR)

you are always going to get variations in this system depending on how people test and at what prices they test with....but as a spot type of play it is very interesting....but would be time consuming watching all the races all day

[Merriguy]

Interesting figures, Shaun.

Don't like the idea of sitting watching a computer screen all day --- have got other things to do! But, I guess, the figures would hold true anyway even if you were only able to watch, say, 7 instead of 35 races??? In the long run the figures should even out to the same result. Any comment anyone?

After all on a given day there might be only 21 races, whereas on a Saturday there could be 50 or 60 races.

[Bhagwan]

The figures will be the same no matter what one does .
Why not stop at the first winner for the day ,then stop for the day.

I note a niumber of people dont have time to put in to the serious business of the punt
At the same time I dont have time to work for someone else ,so I dont.

But if you want to aim for a result in punting ,that`s what one has to do ,otherwise ,dont bet.


Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Shaun,
Good result .
Were using Win or Place betting.

[BJ]

Sorry but I think that any staking plan that doesn't reflect the price of the favourite is just not worth considering. If the market is so accurate (which I also believe) you must bet to return something. Eg bet $33.5 on a $3 favourite but only $25 on a $4 favourite. (Obviously to return $100).
The other way is to bet to make a profit, but this can be quite expensive when the price of the favourite gets too short.

I think your staking plan must reflect this. If your first doesn't get home, increase the return you are looking for.....

Etc... 1st bet to return $50
2nd bet to return $75
3rd bet to return $112.5

Please note this is not a researched percentage to increase stakes, just an example to back up my thoughts.......

[Bhagwan]

Hi BJ
The staking plan attached to this Favs plan ,is based on the min price we are targeting , if you havent already noted that .
It only needs a div. of $2.80 to make a profit any where in the sequence.
Any divs greater than that are a bonus.

[BJ]

All I am saying is that the longer the price for the favourite, the less chance it has to win. If you were to have 9 $5 favourites in a row, the chances of losing all of them would be a lot greater than having 9 $2.8 favourites...

If you were to bet to return a figure, you would always know where you stood financially and your bet would always reflect your winning chance....

[beton]

Bhagwan
I have been off line a few days. I have looked at 470 races looking at $2.80 at the jump using 8 plus starters,betting the place only. The staking plan was 5% of a $500 bank stopping after two losses and resuming after a win. This proved to be a loser but i did notice that the bank went up to $700 in a slightly better place percentage area. The place percentage was about 56% and in the areas that the place % crept up to 60% the bank crept up.

On a place only i notice there is a better place percentage in the $2.50 plus range.

Can you please do a run on your data base using the following criteria
$2.5 plus at jump 8 to 12 starters. Stop at two losses and resume after a win (this saved 46 bets at a cost of 20 odd wins for a gain). I suspect that this will show a profit abeit little.

Thankyou in advance

[Bhagwan]

Answer 65% place but the LOT was -5% LOT
I cant make the program show stop & start perameters.

Have you tried compounding your bets by incresing after a looser until in profit.
Repeat bet if a placegetter does not recover all the O/S amount
E.g. increasing by say 1.33
10,13,18,24,31,42 ext.

OR 1.50
10,15,23,34,51,76 ext

[beton]

bhagwan
Thanks i will run an ongoing sample and a retrospective one. If this shows promise then i will pull a thousand odd random races.
Regards Beton

[kayser32]

Hi There
Just wondering for anyone thats following this system whether 1. Your betting across a range of meetings with the staking plan or 2. Your running the staking plan against 1 meeting.

Cheers

[Bhagwan]

It makes no difference which way one runs it , it pans out the same .

I use it down the board , which means carrying it across meeting to meeting in chronological order.

[crash]

For sanity's sake, I like the stop betting at a meeting when a winner is struck
idea !!

Manipulating a price and progression staking betting method until it fits [creates] a profit result from the betting publics past stats, and applying this to the future, will probably and eventually just end up at the public's losing result, because no real stats. have been changed. They have just been rearranged.

By not betting on races less than 1100m., F&M races. and any favourite carrying more than 57kg. a real improvement might be gained because it changes the public stat. input criteria. I know this is adding a form study aspect to the method here, but it is unobtrusive and easy to include. Using even one of these rules should make a worthwhile difference.

[Merriguy]

Just thought it was time to re-visit a few old favourites from the "Betting Systems Forum". It seems to be lacking inspiration at the moment!

Anyway, a Happy Christmas to all.

[Bhagwan]

An angle that seems to work well using this idea is to use this staking plan bolting 2 venes together.
That way if one venue is a dud the other usually producers one or more results.

Do this in lots of 2 venues each time rather than using it right accross the board.
It usually minimises the outlays to risk as well.

Check it out using 2 venues at a time for each bet sequenc.

If there are 8 venues on the day , one could have 4 batches of 2 for each bet sequence.

Try & remember to stop betting if 9 outs in a row is struck then recommence once a winner finally gets up.

I feel this idea would work best using say the IAS bookie prices that way one knows what the price is going to be once the bet is place.

Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Jack,
Here is that plan again.

Cheers.

[Grand Armee]

The old adage about not being able to help a system that can't win at level stakes rings true again....... I ran this system over 8327 races, using SuperTab final dividends, this was the result:


Races: 8327
Outlay: $21,033
Collect: $18,191
Nett: -$2841
%: -13.5%

[Bhagwan]

That's interesting.
Can I ask what the longest consecitive run of outs was?

Cheers.

[Grand Armee]

Yes - the longest run of outs was 18.

[lomaca]

The old adage about not being able to help a system that can't win at level stakes rings true again....... I ran this system over 8327 races, using SuperTab final dividends, this was the result:


Races: 8327
Outlay: $21,033
Collect: $18,191
Nett: -$2841
%: -13.5%

Unfortunately I can confirm that!
Not only that, but I ran it using price limits like >1.5 and <=2.2 etc.
All that changed was the strike rate, but always in the negative by a greater margin than could be crawled back by staking.
Sorry folks the 15% TAKEOUT IS JUST TOO MUCH.

[Chrome Prince]

Correct, and I posted the findings in the old thread months ago.

Why is it that so many are mesmerised by turning a loss into a profit, why not start with a profit and work from there, the chances of success are multiplied.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Grand Armee,
Thanks for your input.
With that run of 18 in a row, was that taking into account of stopping after 9 (outs as stated in the plan),then restarting once one got up?

Cheers.

[Grand Armee]

Yes Bhagwan it was. The betting stopped at 9, but the run of outs ran to 18. Then, a winner was struck, so the betting recommenced with the next selection.

[Grand Armee]

The problem, of course, is that eventually you reach your run of outs at which point you have to stop, and this gives back all your profits, plus more. The only way a staking plan that chases losses can work is if you NEVER stop betting, and the only way THAT can happen is if you have a virtually limitless bank, and can get set for whatever amount with a bookie, because betting into the totes of course is self defeating.


It looks to me that in your example, your bet size after a loser goes up by 50%. Using that rule, I worked out what kind of money we are talking about if you wanted to bet up to 50 losers. Although that is, of course, very unlikely to come in, it still just might, and you still might lose. In order to last 50 losers, though, your 51st bet would be $1,034,394,551. That's a 1 billion dollar bet, to recoup your initial $1. In order to cover all the losses to that point, as well as place the 1 billion dollar bet, you'd need a bank of 3.1 billion.

So, if you have 3.1 billion dollars spare, and you want to win around $100 a week by chasing your losses, you can risk your 3.1 billion dollars on a loss chasing progressive staking method. Make sure you find a bookie who lets you on, though, for that 1 billion dollar bet.

Oh yeah, and what if that 51st horse lost?

In my sample, the longest run of outs was 18. In that case, your 19th bet would be $2,397, and in order to cover that plus the losses you'd need a bank of $7,180.