favourites

[syllabus23]

Does anyone have a breakdown of favourites winning percentages grouped into odds ranges,,ie,, odds on,,,,1/1 to 2/1,,,,3/1 to 7/2..??? Or something similar please

[darkydog2002]

The TRUE strike rate of odds to 5/1 (courtesy of Malcolm Knowles research )

1/1 = 46 %

10 /9 = 47
5/4 = 40
11/8 = 40
6/4 = 37
13/8 = 35
7/4 = 32
15/8 = 33
2/1 = 30
9/4 = 29
5/2 = 26
11/4 = 23
3/1 = 25
13/4 = 20
7/2 = 19
15/4 = 21
4/1 = 19
9/2 = 16
5/1 = 14

Cheers .
darky.

[partypooper]

It would be interesting though to see the effect of various filters on the whole range, 21 days, last start winner/placed etc etc

[syllabus23]

Thanks darky,,,appreciate that.

[darkydog2002]

SYLLABUS 23.My pleasure.

PARTYPOOPER.I Have a number of breakdown of winning stats around here somewhere but a few close at hand are.
73 % of races are won by horses with 1st /2nd or 3rd placings in at least one of their last 2 starts.
30.8 % of winners had finished 1st at one of their previous 2 starts.
29.1 % had finished 3rd had one of their last 2.
67.5 % of all winners had their immediate last start within 14 days.

I will try to dig a few more up after Xmas as things are a bit hectic at the moment.
My feeling is that if one were to combine STATISTICS with WEIGHT /TIME /CLASS /FIELD STRENGTH RATINGS from a reliable source one would have the basis of a RELIABLE selection method.
Cheers.
darky.

[Bhagwan]

Favouites are funny things , they could have the worst form in the world & they still get up.

You will find , that no matter what you do to improve the SR , it will remain much the same at 30%
Shorter the price , higher the SR .
Higher the Price ,lower the SR but lesser level stakes loss.

Try it for your self by trying to pick 1 false Fav at each venue. every day of the week.
You will find at least 20% will still get up ,in spite of ones knowledgeable efforts of horse form logic.
The illogical favs still win & there`s nothing one can do about it .

A classic is Favs that have never run a race in their lives get up & beat experienced runners .
Faves carrying 4.5+kgs more than last start still winning in a 1400+ distance race .
Faves winning a 2000M race when the last start was a win over 1200M

If one is hell bent on betting favs , then target TAB favs in Maiden races , they seem to have a higher SR than any other class.
You will find that their form is Bull S**t but they still manage to win more than 32% of the time. Go figure.
It throws horse analysis logic out the window.

Try it for yourself by backing every Maiden TAB Fav paying $2.80+ & see if you can get 10 looses in a row , it wont be easy getting 10 consecative outs. .
I wonder if there is a bookie out there that would take such a bet.

If you were to bet the fav to loose you would need to get a price of at least $1.20 to break even, because the worst case sinerio is approx
18-20% win SR .

It`s the low priced fav that kills the multi bet punter every time .
If he or the Bookmaker could pick the false fave 85% of the time, they could be millionairs.
Crazy stuff .

[darkydog2002]

BGHWAN.Couldn,t agree more.
I used to work around the lower priced horses assuming the lower the price on IN FORM horses the better the bet.
As the TRUE strike rate indicates this is a complete FALLACY and will lead in most cases to the poor house.
These days I still look for IN FORM horses rated well but will NEVER bet at any price under $4.
Incidentally this fact was also pointed out to me some years ago by a very good proffessional punter (which stupidly I chose to ignore to my detriment).
THE STUDY OF INFORM SHORT PRICED FAVS IS NOT THE KEY TO THE HOLY GRAIL.
GETTING VALUE ON ANY IN FORM HORSE IS.
Cheers.
darky.