Sportznut's Tips Dec26

[sportznut]

EAGLE FARM
R4-12 OH RAW OH RAW, 2 Snippety Snip, 7 King Latarmiss (12,2,7,1,3,4)
R5-1 CELTIC TRIAL, 6 Drunken Joker, 4 Scenic Wells (1,6,4,2,8)
R7-3 SIR SUCCESS, 7 Teldawn, 12 Mission Statement (3,7,12,6,1,8)
R8-9 KENTUCKY WILDCAT, 6 Garibaldi, 5 Key Of Gold (9,6,5,3,4,1)

RANDWICK
R2-8 SO SO, 2 Wombalano Belle, 6 Palatial (8,2,6,1,3)
R6-5 VEREZA, 1 Reclaim, 3 Fiery Venture (5,1,3,4,9,14)
R7-3 COUNT LUSKIN
R8-6 LENO*, 1 Baghdad, 7 Viovode (6,1,5,7,2,3)

NEWCASTLE
R8-12 SUNSET BOULEVARD (12,3,10,9)

CAULFIELD
R1-1 SECATEURS
R3-2 CONCEPTUAL
R5-1 BLUR, 2 Red Hannigan, 9 Tessuto (1,2,9,8,7,4)
R6-6 ARUNEE*, 4 Mr Magoo, 7 Cool Trent (6,4,7,2,1)
R7-4 BUTTEN SHAW, 14 Polish Crown, 3 Show Barry (4,14,3,9,2,6)
R8-7 HIGH SHAKIRA, 3 Porto Douro, 2 Honest Politician (7,3,2,4,1)

GEELONG
R2-5 MADISON LANE

LAUNCESTON
R6-11 SPEECHMAKER, 2 Chardere, 1 Dream Quest (11,2,1,6,13,16)
R9-1 BAY RITZ*, 10 Shimouse, 11 Springfield Man (1,10,11,2,3,7)

More soon

[sportznut]

CHELTENHAM
R3-4 IMBRUGLIA, 1 Jillimarg, 6 Jolly Miller (4,1,6,5,3)
R6-1 IKAROS, 4 Fiesta Boy, 10 Smooth Takeoff (1,4,10,6,2,17)
R8-1 ZAKURO, 4 Tiger Connected, 2 Cashkalani (1,4,2,3)

ASCOT
R3-1 WEST LOVE
R7-3 UNIVERSAL WARRIOR, 2 Constantinople, 15 Power Mak (3,2,15,10,1,11)
R8-4 DESIGNER STAR, 5 King Wally, 7 Sooty The Sweep (4,5,7,6,1,2)

[sportznut]

BEST BETS

RAND 8-6 LENO
CAUL 6-6 ARUNEE
LAUN 9-1 BAY RITZ

[TESTAROSSA]

Good luck with them Sportz, good to see we pretty much agree on Eagle Farm R7 with Teldawn and Mission Statement, can't believe it was posted at 50/1 in early markets!!!!

[moeee]

BEST BETS

RAND 8-6 LENO
CAUL 6-6 ARUNEE
LAUN 9-1 BAY RITZ

How come you know enough about Launceston to make a selection a special there?
Do you ever sleep?

[sportznut]

Actually Mo, the biggest certainty anywhere today was Lord Danzero in the first down there, but at $1.30, I didn't bother tipping that!!! Same with Secateurs. I really thought it was over the line at Caulfield, but I assumed it was only going to be about $1.40, so I didn't include it as a 'best bet'. If I had known it was going to pay $1.70, I probably would have included it, because it was very painless.

As for Bay Ritz, yes I guess it is a bit risky having a special in a Tassie race, but I backed this horse last start, it has good consistent form, barrier 1 and Brendan McCoull, the jockey that I like to follow in Tassie. We'll see. As for Arunee and Leno, I'm worried they're going to be shorter than they should be, because every man and his dog seems to be tipping them.

[Church22]

Hi Sportznut..

what odds do you think the best bets should be??

[topsy99]

classy racer at $2.70 in adelaide today must have been seen as having some chance by more than a few.
You would expect him to run better than last at those odds.
perhaps he wasnt a certainty.

anything less than 4/1 is high risk.
as pittsburgh phil would say. the only certainty he ever had was beaten by a short half head.

[sportznut]

what odds do you think the best bets should be??

I think all of those best bets should hopefully be around the $2 mark which is okay. Most of my best bets usually pay between $2.50 and $4, but I struggled to find any today that will pay that. I actually found 10 horses today that I considered making 'good things'. These were the prices I expected they would pay:
E.FM 3-4 Meriwether $1.20
RAND 7-3 Count Luskin $1.80
RAND 8-6 Leno $2.00
CAUL 1-1 Secateurs $1.40
CAUL 3-2 Conceptual $1.60
CAUL 6-6 Arunee $2.00
LAUN 1-1 Lord Danzero $1.20
LAUN 9-1 Bay Ritz $2.00
S.CST 4-4 Hattie $1.80
ASCOT 3-1 West love $1.60

I left S.Cst 4-4 Hattie off my original tips by mistake, and I left Meriwether and Lord Danzero off because I thought they would be simply too short. I was amazed at the eventual price of Meriwether. $1.60 was luxury.

In the end, I decided that Leno, Arunee and Bay Ritz were the best bets from that lot. We'll see.

[sportznut]

In future, I think I'll just stick to the horses I'm most confident about as well as the big feature races. That's where I do best. After Mo asked me about my best bets the other day, I went back over recent meetings and found that if I had simply stuck to 3 or 4 best bets and a few other good betting races, I would have done much better. As an example, I really should have ignored Rand R2, E.Fm R4 and Chelt R3 today. I wasn't really all that confident in these races and I was simply tipping for the sake of having a tip. DUMB!!!

[sportznut]

How come you know enough about Launceston to make a selection a special there?


Well, you were right. NO GOOD AT ALL!!! I hope you didn't back it, OR ARUNEE. After today, I'm not sure I should be giving any tips at all. ABSOLUTELY DISGRACEFUL!!! :(

[sportznut]

Mo,

If I ever give out 'best bets' on here in future, you may as well simply treat them as scratchings.

In fact, I think you should just look at Filante's ratings and ignore my stupid selections altogether.

[Sportz]

Today's Results

EAGLE FARM
R4-12 OH RAW OH RAW, 2 Snippety Snip, 7 King Latarmiss (12,2,7,1,3 $8.20,4) Q $18.20
R5-1 CELTIC TRIAL, 6 Drunken Joker, 4 Scenic Wells $5.70 (1,6,4,2,8) Q $13.40 T $76.40 F4 $185.00
R7-3 SIR SUCCESS, 7 Teldawn $5.50, 12 Mission Statement (3,7,12,6,1,8)
R8-9 KENTUCKY WILDCAT, 6 Garibaldi, 5 Key Of Gold (9,6,5,3,4,1)

RANDWICK
R2-8 SO SO, 2 Wombalano Belle, 6 Palatial $4.10 (8,2,6,1,3)
R6-5 VEREZA, 1 Reclaim, 3 Fiery Venture (5,1,3,4,9,14)
R7-3 COUNT LUSKIN
R8-6 LENO*, 1 Baghdad, 5 Viovode (6,1,5,7,2,3)

NEWCASTLE
R8-12 SUNSET BOULEVARD (12,3,10,9 $6.50) Q $13.80

CAULFIELD
R1-1 SECATEURS $1.70
R3-2 CONCEPTUAL $2.00
R5-1 BLUR, 2 Red Hannigan, 9 Tessuto (1,2,9,8,7,4)
R6-6 ARUNEE*, 4 Mr Magoo, 7 Cool Trent $4.40 (6,4,7,2,1) Q $12.00 T $156.20
R7-4 BUTTEN SHAW, 14 Polish Crown, 3 Show Barry (4,14,3,9,2,6)
R8-7 HIGH SHAKIRA, 3 Porto Douro $2.90, 2 Honest Politician (7,3,2,4,1) Q 22.80 T $98.70

GEELONG
R2-5 MADISON LANE

LAUNCESTON
R6-11 SPEECHMAKER, 2 Chardere, 1 Dream Quest (11,2,1,6 $9.80,13,16)
R9-1 BAY RITZ*, 10 Shimouse, 11 Springfield Man (1,10,11,2,3,7)

CHELTENHAM
R3-4 IMBRUGLIA, 1 Jillimarg, 6 Jolly Miller (4,1,6,5 $5.80,3) Q $8.30 T $61.70
R6-1 IKAROS, 4 Fiesta Boy, 10 Smooth Takeoff (1,4,10,6,2,17 $29.70) Q $221.10 T $4897.60
R8-1 ZAKURO $2.50, 4 Tiger Connected, 2 Cashkalani (1,4,2,3) Q $5.80

ASCOT
R3-1 WEST LOVE $1.40
R7-3 UNIVERSAL WARRIOR, 2 Constantinople, 15 Power Mak (3,2,15,10,1,11 $8.80) Q $13.30 T $239.90
R8-4 DESIGNER STAR, 5 King Wally, 7 Sooty The Sweep $6.20 (4,5,7,6,1,2) Q $9.30

Before you ask, no I didn't have that $4897 trifecta in Adelaide, which sort of accounts for my grumpy mood tonight. I did have the quinella though and a small bet on the winner.

All in all, a hard day for tipping winners, but you have to learn from your mistakes and after looking at a few things today, I think I've sorted out what I'm going to do in future.

[Sportz]

Just checked my emails, and I realised that I'd had a couple of black-bookers sent to me which for some reason, I had completely forgotten about today. Yes, you guessed it. They both won. Cool Front ($7.50) in Sydney and Umaforce ($4) at Geelong.

[moeee]

Mo,

If I ever give out 'best bets' on here in future, you may as well simply treat them as scratchings.

In fact, I think you should just look at Filante's ratings and ignore my stupid selections altogether.

Sounds like you had a few extra ones for the road after your dinner Sportznut!
You got a lot more losers to tip before you reach anywhere near my tally!

[Sportz]

No, I was just in a grumpy mood Mo. I'm very sorry about that.

You see, apart from those 'best bets' all going down, I also missed out on a great trifecta which paid about $2500 for a 1/2 unit, simply because I didn't want to spend too much.

[topsy99]

herein lies the rub sportznut.

to back short priced requires larger bets which doesnt leave a enough to spread around on the spec's or value bets.

the larger the bet the more likely to drift to the favorites due to a need for re assurance or justification.

keep up the good work. racing can be stressful if we over do it.
am giving it a rest now to new years day.