good things

[topsy99]

i was interested in the post regarding good things. i think sportznut (apologies if it not) talking about them.
I have found that when conditions are right longer priced horses are as reliable as the short ones.

yesterday niagara falls was priced pretty well. it was a reasonable horse during the adelaide carnival and i think some one tipped it last start.
(on sky) fangio was another that was running well and was worth a go at the odds. well bred and knackered this time in he has learnt to win.
i was fortunate to be on old william of oz who won like a spring chicken yesterday after not winning in the past 12 months. funny that. last time he won he was 63/1 after running in a listed race in adelaide he won a country cup. (coming down in distance)
but prices do make a difference. i didnt back social glow although it was the pick on my system. the reason. it was over from adelaide and nozi had run last so i thought adelaide horses need a few lengths in melbourne but there we go thinking logically again. it has nothing to do with it.
its prices. recently i mentioned blood and bone winning at great odds.
down in distance inside barrier and 16/1 what a go.

theres no such thing as a good thing but give me odds anytime.
this manshood got a few lengths yesterday as well with the odds on his side.
they're out there and they are not 2/1.

[Rudolph]

i agree, i couldn't believe it when i saw Fangio at 40-1, as i had been following it this prep, i only had the $25 EW but it was a nice collect.

[partypooper]

And it was a clear cut PPM selection (Partypoopers Plum Movers)

[Sportz]

i was interested in the post regarding good things. i think sportznut (apologies if it not) talking about them.
I have found that when conditions are right longer priced horses are as reliable as the short ones.

Yes, it was me and you were dead right. Those shorties were no good, so I'm changing my tactics from now on.

Actually, I do usually require my selections to be about $3+ before I make them 'specials', but Moeee had asked me to list some best bets, so I tried to do that for him. I couldn't find any I really liked that met my required price range, so I went for those real shorties instead. Dumb!

[moeee]

i agree, i couldn't believe it when i saw Fangio at 40-1, as i had been following it this prep, i only had the $25 EW but it was a nice collect.

ONLY?

Maybe you could put more on next time!
And watch it go down!
Be grateful for any positive returns.You'll be a much better person for it.

[topsy99]

just a short reply.
well done for backing fangio. faith counts a lot.
but fangio is by danehill-catnipped and had the breeding to be a fair horse.
he has won 3 out of 5 this time in so is showing his worth.

reflecting on some of the longer priced horses on saturday which i happened to get on a few of at last i was trying to put into practice some of what i have learnt over the last 20 years of studying racing.

i wonder how many of us do this. look back and ask ourselves what we have learned. and after a lot of race days we would have to say not very much.

i realise most of our forum is not interested in the philosophical side of racing but i find it the most interesting part.

i recently mentioned regarding someone doing ratings and their value etc.
and came up with the view that 33% of winners are picked by the market and 67% is luck . that is a fair assessment of ratings. but many longshot good horses win and that defies the market and ratings and after looking at the results we say "why didnt i back that?" we didnt back it because we didnt put into practice what we had learned.

the poster here that backed fangio with what he sees as a moderate 25/25 backed the value horse . a listed horse flemington 1800 8/11/03 won at 40/1 almost to the day on melbourne cup day this year.
had won 3 out of 5 this time in was paying $36 .
we could well ask "now why didnt i back that". (i did"

niagara falls placed in group 3 company and had done most of its racing this time in in higher class races obviously being set for a"go".

[Sportz]

ONLY?


Yeah, that's what I thought. ONLY???

[Rudolph]

I usually only have 1 or 2 bets at metro meetings, i pick out a solid win bet, and longshot. My longshot was Fangio, quoted at $21. When my mate and i went down the TAB it was at $28 on S-tab with 3 min prior to race. It was absolutely friendless in the market and drifted to $36 race time. So i was scared off by this and instead of outlaying my planned $50ew i halfed it to $25. Yes i got a great return but it could have easily been better.

[Profitable Punting]

Commenting on sportz short priced good things.

Horses are short for a reason, yes backing every favorite is suicidal, but just remember, its not the $20 bets that create the favorites, its the high end profesional punting money. (the well trained smart money). If you can pick out the true short price favorites you are going to become a very successful long term punter. You will not find a long term successful punter who chasses $5.00+ horses. I have been very successful in backing short price favorites for years. Yes, It is abit of fun trying to back horses paying $5.00+, but just remember, you backing these horses put's you against some very very smart and well trained professionals out there, and in the end class will prevail.

[moeee]

Nice stuff in that post,personal punter,and would like to read more of your stuff.
Bit of support helps a lot when things aren't going too well.

Welcome to the forum and hope plenty of your posts are forthcoming!

[Mr ed]

I heard this horse was being retired after saturdays race, i wonder if this is still on the cards or if they ever really did plan to retire it?

[topsy99]

this also highlights the difficulty of backing short priced favorites.
in larger fields and competitive higher prizemoney races these short priced horses are higher risk. this is not to say that a well oiled professional would touch a short priced horse in a competitive race.

but we are not professionals. to dabble around on a few dollars at 2/1 is not much fun and not satisfying and risky if you lose a couple of races as you cannot recover it.

I must admit that when racing ceases to be fun then I will probably turn to another interest. So searching out the longer prices horses is my go and perhaps we dream about cracking the 100/1 shot.
but I'll get one one day.
good luck and merry xmas and new year to all. heres to a good year ahead.