Weighty problem drawn wide...

[supersoul]

Hi- I am new to punting, new to Ozzie and new to this forum... so bear with me?

Just a quick question- as I know nothing about weight handycapping:

Horses differ in sizes. Do "they"(stewards?) consider that when weight "penalties" for past performances are determined? For example- two horses with absolute identical records; the one is xx hands high, the other xx+5, and the second one thus weighs in at 20 kg more. Do they get identical weights?

I would think that if they do, the heavier horse might be favoured as percentage wise it is less(of his total running weight everything up?)

Also, looking at barrier influences- Propunter does not give stats as wide barriers are not always filled- depending on the number of runners/acceptances. I cannot see why not, as it can be given as a percentage of starts. Obviously the higher draws will be less accurate because of lower numbers, but percentages could still be reasonably valid eg % tote-favourites which won from particular barrier... etc etc etc
In some instances draws could be very important- and such stats would help to choose between possibilities?

[quapi]

We are no longer updating the barrier stats on a weekly basis. It took quite a few hours each week and it is not possible to justify the expense based on the weekly number of hits to those pages.

[Privateer]

Quapi....interesting pseudonym...is it from the acronym used in theoretical chemistry for qua(siadiabatic) p(ropagator path)
i(ntegral method)..just wondering.

Privateer

[supersoul]

On 2002-04-22 09:58, Privateer wrote:
And you're the guy who had the audacity to question my stats????? Sorry, can't type anymore I just fell off the chair from laughing too much!!!!


Audacity to question? I never questioned your stats - I merely turned them around to look at them from another perspective. Go refresh your memory.

I do think, after observing your postings, that you have an attitude problem though- something to do with your selfimage perhaps? Cannot handle questions?

But feel free to "put me in my place" anytime; other posters can see how "cool and clever" you are.

Thanks for the mature and insightful answer; I think I found another forum more suited to my level of stupidity anyway.

[Privateer]

Yes, I agree Supersoul, it was rude and please accept my apologies.

[supersoul]

On 2002-04-26 08:58, Privateer wrote:
Yes, I agree Supersoul, it was rude and please accept my apologies.

Ok, maybe I over reacted as well...

Now how about some serious answers?

One kilo extra added to a weight diff between horses all up of 20 kg? Does that REALLY translates into, say, 1.5 lengths, or whatever, depending on race distance?

Is it not a pipe dream in reality, and only effective where all else really are the same? It cannot be that effective in a field of 18 runners- sometimes a horse wins with top weight; sometimes they do not place.

I can only see it as helpful in the sense that somebody who should know, thinks the horse is top of the heap for eg.

It would be interesting to look at stats regarding allotted weights carried and total(horse and rider) weights; or has it been done?

If I was a trainer, a rated horse would exercise with a heavy rider anyway...

[marylin]

Hi again everyone,
Speaking of weights.
I was told recently that if a senior jockey is taken off a good horse and replaced by an apprentice claiming 2kg or 3kg or whatever, draw a line through it immediately.
A couple of reasons for not backing a good horse under these conditions were given.
Any thoughts on this.

[Bhagwan]

Dear Marilyn;
The extension to this , if the apprentice has not won on it before , because some apprentices have resonable success on certain horses.

The overall concept is a general rule & works best on Sat. metro meetings where the standard is usually higher than Prov & Country meetings.

[Privateer]

Weight is one of the great racing conundrums. How can a couple of kilos extra on the back of a 600kg thoroughbred influence its performance? The handicapper has a tough task. He has to allocate a rating for every horse that runs. His task is to assign a rating such that all the runners in a handicap will finish in one big dead heat. This has never happened, and probably never will.

Weight is used to handicap a horses chance of winning. The more successful the horse, the more weight it carries and the less successful it should be in future races. At the other end of the scale poorer performed horses are allowed to carry less weight and should thus better their recent finishing positions.....allegedly!

I personally believe that horses rising in weight actually have a better chance than those dropping in weight. I also feel that far too much emphasis is placed on weight differentials by punters. Check the stats next Saturday on any meeting you choose on those rising in weight compared to those dropping and see which ones finish ahead.

Based on some stats I did a while ago, the average winning weight for metro races is 55kg.

[mr magic]

Brumby,
Handicappers penalise last start winners 2 - 2.5 kgs if they remain in the same class. A last start runner up gets about 1.5 more, third 1 more, 4th maybe half a kilo. Variations to this will indicate that today's race is stronger/weaker depending on which way the weights go. A highly impressive win may incur slightly more.
In your example, a 2kg rise would indicate that horse had a moderate victory in the same class of race last start.

[Placegetter]

Just to add my two cents on Marilyn's question about senior jockeys being replaced with a claiming apprentice.

I personally am not so quick to dismiss, but you should always ask why? If it is because the horse has risen in weight steeply and the apprentice hasn't ridden the horse before, then maybe alarm bells ring.

On the other hand, some apprentices can quite capably boot home winners. I think Rodd here in Qld outrode his claim in a year.

Just on a tangent, I don't really care if a jockey rides over either. At least it's all in the stirrups, rather than the bag. It's an old quote, give me a break Privateer :wink:

[marylin]

Thanks for all that,
Now so i can try to understand the weight thing a bit better.
I have discussed this with a punter and i don't think this person understands the concept all that well either.
Sunline i believe at her? last three starts
carried 60kg 58kg and 55.5kg.
Could someone PLEASE explain why a horse that good goes down in weights.

[schmucta80]

gday
sunline always carries 55.5 kg in WFA age races as that is the weight for a mare, when she carried 60 kgs a nd 58 kgs these races were handicap races, all the horses were handicapped on different weights, and if i recall she was either equal topweight or topweight in those 2 races
cheers

[Placegetter]

You're right Marilyn.

April 6 - 55.5kg All Aged
March 30 - 58kg Doncaster
March 9 - 60 kg Coolmore classic

The All Aged was what we call a weight for age (WFA) race, and the weights are designated by age, sex and the race distance.

The other two races were handicaps, where basically the race handicapper has discretion and the best performed horse(s) are given the biggest weights.

There is a system of penalties that can apply to winners/placegetters in some races also.

The idea, as mentioned eslewhere on this forum is for the hadicapper to so weight the horses so that dead heat results. It's never happened, but the Newmarket this year was a good effort (I have a photo to prove it!)

What an outstanding mare you offered as an example! Sunline! Sunline! Sunline! Probably one of the few horses I have ever backed for a win.

[mr magic]

Brumby,
I'm not much of a weights man to be honest. I believe that a fit, fresh horse in a suitable race is a far better betting proposition than a well weighted horse in an ordinary race scenario.
It is quite common to see a horse come out of a high quality race and fail in ordinary company. The weights often don't play a part in my book; moreso the horse is flat from an over exertion against high quality opposition.
Prosecution at yesterday a perfect example. Ran a bottler at Group Two behind Arlington Road then ran second last in a hackers race at Warrnambool. The big run took it out of him.
Conversely, the drop in class can result in an easy victory despite huge weights. It's up to the punter to analyse each horse on its merits.
Strong, fit, keen 500kg beasts will not be concerned about the difference between 55 kgs and 57kgs. Rather than carrying 11% of its own bodyweight its carrying 11.4%. It's like a supremely fit human being asked to carry 320 grams extra .. negligable.

[marylin]

Thanks for all the info to date, are there any other classes or specific races where the girls are treated differently to the boys

[supersoul]

I took note of what was said here, and decided that hot fav Simatron in Northam race 8 would probably not win again, going up 2.5 kilos and 150 meters extra... short rest as well.

I was right he did not place, and I scored with a "wide" trifecta!

I am not sure if it was the measley 2.5 kg, the measley 150 meters extra or the flimsy exscuse of a short 10 days rest.. but I am filing it under "possitive experience"!

[supersoul]

On 2002-05-02 15:05, marylin wrote:
Thanks for all the info to date, are there any other classes or specific races where the girls are treated differently to the boys


As far as I can determine there is no "sex discrimination"!

The "girls" and "boys" sometimes have their own races though! Just look for the race classification eg FM fillies and mares, or HG horses and geldings...

[supersoul]

Hi Marilyn
I missed Placegetters post lower down! The "Rulz" says:
"Fillies and Mares allowed 2.5kg from 1 August - 31 July"

So it does seem the "girls" get a little regard for PMS! LOL!

[Placegetter]

Sunline must be a real piece of work.