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Bhagwan
22nd April 2002, 05:42 AM
BHAGWAN PLACE STAKING & SELECTION PLACE
This plan works a treat,thats of course if you can pick place getters.
THE SELECTION PLAN
A good sauce of place getters is the 100 pointers in the http://www.tabq.com.au (Qld. TAB)
Must have 8-12 runners only
Must be paying $3.00 or more for the win (not place).(that way we get a reasonable place divvy.Approx. $1.60)
No bet if duel 100 pointers.

Always remember ,your srike rate will always be greater if you stick to races with 8-12 runners. No matter what resonable selection plan you use.

THE STAKING PLAN
The idea is to increase your bet after a place getter is struck ,then start again once you are in profit after the first bet has been increased.
E.g. 5L-5L-5L-5P-@$1.90-10L-10P-@1.80-15@2.00-20@$1.70 now stop ,you are now in profit

Outlay was $80.00 Return $91.50 Profit $11.05 14.3% Profit on turnover.
Strike rate was only 4 out of 9=44% for the place.
BANK REQUIRED,$150 for every $1.00 In this case example you would need $750 because we were starting with $5.00 bets .
Always remember no bank ,no chance.

So you can see the potential , even at moderate odds & strike rate.

Privateer
22nd April 2002, 08:54 AM
No disrespect intended, but you will, not probably, but WILL lose in the long term. A profit of 14% on place betting is simply not enough to sustain this method through losing runs.

Placegetter
22nd April 2002, 07:12 PM
I have to agree with Privateer. A strike rate of 44% on placegetters? Can't be done.

Also, you suggest the TAB 100 pointers as a good sauce (sic) of selections for your method. Do you actually know how they rate them? I've been kind of disappointed by their results and am hesitant to trust something that perpetrates a fake market. Let the drunks back the 100 pointers.

My suggestion would be to look at the 100 rated horse, do your own analysis, and then, where logical, bet against it (for a place of course).

Privateer alluded to the "obvious" favourite not being the most statistically sound favourite in another post. Check it out.

Bhagwan
22nd April 2002, 07:16 PM
With due respect.Like I said ,if you have the ability to pick place getters.
This is an example of its potential.
If you cant pick place getters ,no staking plan will work. Maybe one should`nt be punting in that instance.
If one feels its not sustainable,please replace this idea with one that is.We`ll look forward to seeing it.
I feel any resonable idea sheared is better than someone offering nothing in its place .
Cheers for now.

Placegetter
22nd April 2002, 07:39 PM
Quite right, any reasonable idea shared is better than none. Hence an alternate suggestion in my reply, which can be agreed with/disregarded as applicable.

To keep this positive, does anyone really know how the TAB ratings out of 100 are made?

As an example, in the All Aged Stakes on April 6th, Sunline was rated 100 and Cent Home next best at 94. I thought at the time "Yeah, lengths!!".

Turned out accurate in that case, but I am sure it is not the system used. Help.

Bhagwan
23rd April 2002, 12:28 PM
The 100 Pointers on Qld.TAB are weight ratings done by well known bookmaker Mark Read.Based purly on form comparing one horses against another based on what they have done in the past with todays weight allocated. Like all these type of ratings, they have good days & not so good days.
Maybe some one out there knows of a stronger place selection criteria.
E.g.maybe 100 pts.that have either won or placed within 2.2 lengths last start .
Paying $1.50 min.for the place.

becareful
26th April 2002, 10:09 AM
Bhagwan, With all due respect ANY system which relies on you INCREASING your bet stake when you are losing money will lose in the long run. 1 bad day can wipe out the profits of a whole month of good days as your increasing stake gives bigger and bigger losses. There are several books which give a mathematical proof of this concept but I won't bore everyone with the details here. The only way to make money is to find a "system" that gives a consistant profit with a constant bet amount.