Winning %age of Favs.

[miamiles]

It is a truism that 30odd% of favs win. Over time it has been written here to wait for a fav to win the bet on next one etc. My question is does anyone have any stats on consecutive favs winning - like races 3 &4, 7&8 etc.. Thanks in anticipation

[Shaun]

Any one that waits for a fav to win then backs the next one is just waiting to go broke....the only time you want to back a fav is when it is a true fav and you have done the form to support that

[miamiles]

Thanks for the advice Shaun but I wasn't seeking advice I was seeking facts

[Mr. Logic]

Any one that waits for a fav to win then backs the next one is just waiting to go broke....the only time you want to back a fav is when it is a true fav and you have done the form to support that

You'll still go broke backing true favourites unless you get the right odds. Take $2.00 about a true favourite that should be $2.20 and you'll end up losing. But you'll get a good winning strike rate. Loss chasing staking methods won't turn things around either.

[Chrome Prince]

Hi,

My database contains only Metropolitan races....

Overall
17,617 clear favourites
30.44% S/R
13.18% Loss On Turnover.

Whether consecutive or not it will even out unless you can find a method that eliminates some % of losers or obtain better odds. These days it quite easy to make money longterm as a 13% loss can be turned into a 2 to 5% profit, possibly even more, by obtaining better prices.

The loss on turnover quoted overall is using Tabcorp prices.

[DR RON]

Why is it when we have such a vast array of resources at our fingertips, we still only manage to have the same strike rate of faves as we have had right through history???

[woof43]

It's something called the "diminishing marginal utility. We think by adding more an more variables/factors you will find more value, but the reverse is true.

[Shaun]

I will agree on that more information does not say we will get more winners

[shoto]

The ave price has gradually declined though, as a result of more informed money being bet.

[Shaun]

But using other services you can get a better price....80% of people still don't read form or don't understand it

[miamiles]

Thanks Chrome. I guess although your stats relate to metrop only they would hold pretty much fo all venues would they not?

[Bhagwan]

I have posted this Fav plan on this site .
Look up- Favorite Next Race Plan or Next race Fav Plan

The idea is to wait for a TAB fav to get up at that venue before one comences betting at level stakes on the next TAB Fav.
We allow a max of 4 outs at that venue before ceasing betting at that venue for the day.

We Stop betting at that venue once one of our Favs gets up.(This is very important)

If you see a race where there are 2 FAVS at the same price(RARE) ignore that race , pretend it did`nt exist & continue on to the next race.

Now do the same for all the other venues on the day.

If you look at our old posting ,we ran it for a number of days which produced a good profit.

It still produces a profit .

Check it out.

[dingoboy]

Hey Bahgwan

That is exactly what i did (look at my post under "dutch betting staking plan" this morning when i said i went to the local),
I waited till a fav got up at melbourne race x and then left it out of my selections for the next race race Y at that venue, i read your post on this before, its a little ripper, thats what gave me the idea.
So it you that i have to thank for that "lucky fist full of fifties", not the gods.

Cheers
Dingo

[syllabus23]

But using other services you can get a better price....80% of people still don't read form or don't understand it
Where on earth do you get the 80% from ?????

[Chrome Prince]

Where on earth do you get the 80% from ?????

I agree, as 80% of the TAB money goes on in the last 10 minutes or less, it's obvious if you stand in any TAB and just watch. Half of them scribble anything like it's a keno ticket or just back the favourite on the screen.

[syllabus23]

You are saying that the intelligent money goes on first.?That you actually lean over peoples shoulders in the TAB and look at their betting slips.???That simply by looking around you can prove that 80% of people dont understand form guides??

[Chrome Prince]

You are saying that the intelligent money goes on first.?That you actually lean over peoples shoulders in the TAB and look at their betting slips.???That simply by looking around you can prove that 80% of people dont understand form guides??

No, I'm not saying the intelligent money goes on first, but 80% of the money goes on in the last few minutes and the reason why it's 80% is that the large punters try to stop the TAB punters following the big bets, because they know the general punters will follow the money rather than the formguide.

This is why it happens for the big punters this way. The TAB punters simply bet race to race at the last minute (the majority, not all).

No I don't lean over people's shoulders, I'm sure I'd cop a fair whack if I did, but you get to know the regulars at all TABS in the local area over many years, and most of them are creatures of habit, who do the same thing day in day out, making the same decisions and mistakes over and over.

Have a look at discarded cards on the counter and you'll see what I mean, or stand behind a window and most mistakes are punters picking scratchings by not even looking at the fields!!!

I wish I had a dollar for every time I heard this converstation:

TAB AGENT: "Number 6 is a scratching mate."
CUSTOMER: "Oh sorry, ummm (turns to odds screen) I'll take 5 instead."

I'm saying 80% of people in TAB agencies don't.

[gizzard]

The idea is to wait for a TAB fav to get up at that venue before one comences betting at level stakes on the next TAB Fav.
We allow a max of 4 outs at that venue before ceasing betting at that venue for the day. Am I right with the following?
Assuming an 8 race programme then you would need a favourite to win in the first 4 races for the plan to be followed. If the fifth race was the first one where the favourite won then there would only be 3 races left in the day which would not provide you with your max number of outs.

I must admit I don't see how this method can work in the long run since I can't work out why betting within a meeting gives you an advantage. I am sure if you simply follow the races in a day and simply bet on the favourite after the first favourite has won during a day then in the end you would lose....so why would it work for a single meeting?

[KennyVictor]

I must admit I don't see how this method can work in the long run since I can't work out why betting within a meeting gives you an advantage. I am sure if you simply follow the races in a day and simply bet on the favourite after the first favourite has won during a day then in the end you would lose....so why would it work for a single meeting?

I'm not saying I'm for or agin' this plan and I'm only going on a hunch here but it seems to me you have some meetings where favorites win race after race and others where favorites seem to miss out. A heavy track for example may cut the number of favorites. I guess if you wait for a favorite to win it may push the chances of this plan working in your favour.

[kenchar]

QUOTE
No, I'm not saying the intelligent money goes on first, but 80% of the money goes on in the last few minutes and the reason why it's 80% is that the large punters try to stop the TAB punters following the big bets, because they know the general punters will follow the money rather than the formguide.


So correct CP, usually the Smokey is bet early to get the sheep following and then at the last second the REAL MONEY goes on the correct nag.

That's why I bet the way I do, not every race obviously, and somedays nothing shows up.

Midweeks 100% better than main meetings.

[KennyVictor]

So correct CP, usually the Smokey is bet early to get the sheep following and then at the last second the REAL MONEY goes on the correct nag.


So I guess (as I gathered from your earlier posts) the only way to follow the money is to spot when the big guys are throwing a dummy and somehow know what they are trying to lure you away from. Is the real money always put on too late to follow? And what are the mechanics of this late plunge to get the timing just right.

[kenchar]

KV,
The real money is usually put on too late to follow, but what you have to remember it may NOT be put on the TABS.
Just think of how many betting places there are that pay out on the TAB divi, usually NSW TAB.
So the smokey is set up the sheep follow,the smokey comes in, the nag they want to bet goes out, and the money goes on at the last few seconds.
There was one offshore betting agency that was nearly sent broke by the smarties using this method, until they realised what was happening.
Just remember the smarties are making a fortune out of this game, and it's usually not the main meetings.

Cheers

[Bhagwan]

Hi Gizzard,
You have interpreted the rules correctly.

I thought I explained the reasoning behind it ,so , at the risk of sounding boring, I will repeat myself ,the reason for this approach is based on the fact that the majority of venues have 2+ favs get up or none at all .
It is rare that they only get just one Fav up .


Now, I am not talking about one weekend ,I`m talking about several thousand races. 7 days a week.

You could follow the idea betting down the board (as you suggest) instead of across , but one has now altered the logic of the parameters to a point where they have no correlation what so ever to the original concept.


Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Gizard,,
I overlooked something in your question.
The 1st winner does not have to come from the 1st 4 races , as you seem to have interpreted, it can be the 6th. You may note that I stated up to max . 4 outs in a row.

May I suggest reading the original posting of this method.

[Bhagwan]

I like the idea of looking over other people shoulders for the selections , preferrable total strangers with a crazed look in their eyes.

Dont worry about their dopey looks , they could be runners for the bookies in disguise.

What if they are not ? I hear you say , well then, I`m affraid you have just done your dow.

[miamiles]

An answer to my original post in this thread is as follows: Size of sample 569 meetings from all states except WA & Tas. No of consecutive favs winning=179 (31.5%) . An interesting sidelight is that a fav won the first race on 228 occasions (40.1%). I find this stat interesting in as much as the first race on a program is invariably a maiden, 2 y.o. or a jump. Races which most of the time we are told to steer clear of. I also looked at Bhagwan’s idea of stopping after 4 outs. Thinking along the line that even if the 4th bet does get up, and by being fav you would probably lose on the day anyway. My findings were that it would still (probably) be economical stop after 3 outs. The results show that the combinations of a fav followed by a fav OR a fav followed by a miss then a fav OR a fav followed by two misses followed followed by a fav won on 367 occasions

[partypooper]

The way I see that is that say you have a SR of 30% (on average) then from any 100 selections (on average) you will have 30 winners, and then following those 30 winners the next bet will also have 30% SR (on av erage), so in other words 9 times. (from 30 that is)

i.e. the 30% SR does not alter on ANY given selection regardless of whether the previous one won or not.

[gizzard]

That's what I was thinking Partypooper which was why I was asking the question about how this tactic gave an advantage over the normal 30%.

[partypooper]

Gizzard, yes I think it's more of a mental thing, we persieve that if we've backed 3 winners in a row then must be that were not going to win again, when if fact we still have the same SR of 30%.

I recently improved my POT on a ratings based selection method by stopping after 2 winners on any given day. All the experts tell me that this was pure luck! they MUST be right but, it is still better on the nerves when you walk away a winner. Needless to say it hurts when the next rating romps home @12-1 and youre not on it.