odds

[becareful]

Not sure about Teletext (I don't have access to it) but I suspect it is more up-to-date than the internet prices. The prices shown on Sky Racing are ALWAYS more up-to-date than the internet prices. For example TABCORP releases new estimates at 1:45 before scheduled jump, 0:15 before jump and then every minute (if race jumps late). So if race is supposed to start at 2:30 there will be an update at 2:28:15, 2:29:45 then 2:30:45, 2:31:45 etc if it is late. These updates generally appear within a few seconds on the SKY Racing coverage but are usually appear about 10-15 seconds later on the internet. For Unitab and NSW the updates are more frequent (every 20-30 seconds close to race jump) and also seem to make it to their internet sites quicker (often only a few seconds behind the SKY updates).

[Bhagwan]

The price which is more accurate is the screen which is showing the largest amount of money currently held on that race for a win .
You will find the Teletext the more up to date of the two.
What I find annoying with Teletext is they don`t change the 3 state market annalysis screen onto the next race once the current race has jumped.
I`ts the year 2002 & it looks like the old story that seems to be very familiar these days , of people put in charge of running a business with no understanding or interest of the nuinces of its customers or the reason why they do certain things pertaining to the task at hand of the service that they pertain they represent.
No wonder companies like Virgin see the potential in this country & with the likes of companies such as Telstra (sort of monopoly) can`t even sustain their own, once $10 shares , huge banks like the Bank Of HongKong making a substatial move on the domestic & buisness market very soon with the likes of ANZ ,Westpac & NAB turning their arrogant backs on the people who got them there .

I`ll get back into my cupboard now .

[becareful]

Puntz, The internet pages do show the time that the odds were generated (eg. Tabcorp shows Update Time: 12:25:45, etc) - pity the Sky/Teletext doesnt do the same). Unfortunatly with any TAB you are always going to have the problem with the odds changing after you have placed your bet - this is especially so with Tabcorp as you have 4 different TAB's consolidating into the pool and they only update their odds every minute at race time. Generally speaking the odds for Qld & NSW change less and the larger the pool size the smaller the variations (as it takes a much larger bet to influence the odds). Personally I have found that you win some and lose some - eg yesterday I had 4 winning bets, 1 of them shortened dramatically in the final payout (from $15 to $9), 1 shortened a small amount and 2 payed more than I expected ($9 to $13 and $12 to $17). When placing my bets I will only bet if the odds are about 10% better than what I think is break-even point (eg. if I think the horse should be a $10 payout I will only bet if the odds are $11 or higher - this allows for the change in the odds after jump time)

[puntz]

BC
You wrote:
When placing my bets I will only bet if the odds are about 10% better than what I think is break-even point (eg. if I think the horse should be a $10 payout I will only bet if the odds are $11 or higher - this allows for the change in the odds after jump time)

My question is:
how/what do you use to base the, "$11 or higher" conclusion ?

[becareful]

Puntz,

You certainly have been going through the archives to dig that post up!

At the time I posted that I was betting mainly with the TABs and was typically placing my bet within the last 10 seconds before the jump. Basically by leaving it to the last possible moment I only had to worry about any price change that occurred in the last half minute or so (ie. between the last pool update available and when the pool was closed). You can usually judge if a price is going to change drastically in that time by paying attention to any movements in the preceeding minute or two, looking at the pool size (small pools being much more volatile), looking for comparisons between the other TABs (eg. if price is say $6 on Tabcorp, $6.20 on NSW and $8.00 on UNITAB it is fairly likely that the price on UNITAB will come in but probably not to $6.00 unless the poos is very small, etc.

Now I am doing the majority of my betting with either Betfair or with IAS & other bookies so I don't have to worry so much as you can lock in the price you want. (A year ago I was betting more on longshots and more midweek betting which meant TAB was best option, now more of my bets are in the shorter price range which means bookies can be better and also majority of betting is now on Saturdays so if I do think TABs will pay better I just use DiviPlus on IAS)