more place betting

[bobby]

I have been fiddling around with a place system and would appreciate some stat feedback.
Bet on favourite if 5/4 or lower and second favourite 4/1 or higher.
Favourite to carry no more than 56.5Kgs
Only 8 to 12 starters after scratchings
Favourite is late mail

Can anyone help. Any feedback welcome

Thanks

Bobby

[marcus25]

[QUOTE=bobby]I have been fiddling around with a place system and would appreciate some stat feedback.
Bet on favourite if 5/4 or lower and second favourite 4/1 or higher.
Favourite to carry no more than 56.5Kgs
Only 8 to 12 starters after scratchings
Favourite is late mail

Hi Bobby!
Do you have all the back data, related to your question?
Like "Favourite is late mail".
Cheers!

[bobby]

Marcus25,

It's pretty obvious I'm a bit of a novice. Is there anyway I can capture the late mail from previous meetings???

Bobby

[Sportz]

http://www.tabonline.com.au/default.stm

Click on 'Racing', then click on 'Racing' again on the next page, then go to 'Results and Search'.

By the way, today at Bendigo R5-4 Don't Stop was Unitab 100 rater AND Late Mail and yet it paid $13.00!!!

[darkydog2002]

Its worth having a look at the latest PUNT TO WIN article on PLACE BETTING.
Cheers.
darky.

[bobby]

Sorry.... punt to win????

Bobby

[Neil]

I gave up years ago betting with any regularity for the place on the tote. It is a poor joke and a worse market to bet in than even the tote win markets with their 15% deductions plus rounding down from the pool.

I put a decent place bet on a horse that looked a certainty to win. It had bad luck, held up in the straight and when clear stormed home, but just missed a place. Worse still, it came right in on the tote after they jumped and was paying $1.00 money back the place. So I had a bet going for me that couldn't win but could lose. When that can happen to you with a bet you are on a hiding to nothing.

A major problem with tote betting is the inability to control the odds you get. The rounding down of dividends is an absolute killer - especially for the place. A horse may be $1.41 and showing $1.40. Late money comes in and it ends up at $1.29. You get paid $1.20. 50% of your anticipated dividend has been wiped out. You can't win long term when that happens.

The lure of place betting is the high strike rate and lower runs of outs. But strike rate is irrelevant unless accompanied by odds. It's no use getting a 50% strike rate if your odds are $1.90 and so on. Loss chasing methods for the place don't work. It's just like playing red or black at roulette and betting up chasing your losses. Guaranteed to lose over the long term.

I'll further add that no simple system following a few easy to follow rules will win with tote place betting. It may be "fun", but it will lose. By retrofitting rules to past results you may even get something that appears to work on paper - but its application in real life will be a different matter. Disappearing odds, odds from past results completely different to the odds you would see when you are going to place a bet, results no longer fitting rules based on past results etc. etc.

[DR RON]

Hopefully Austote will bring in place betting. With only a 5 % commission it would have to be an improvement on what we get now.

[darkydog2002]

BOBBY.PUNT TO WIN is included in the FREE newsletter and is a proffessional ,well researched ,commonsense article well worth reading.

Cheers.
darky.

[system]

well said neil

[partypooper]

Neil, just spotted this one, yes of course no-one could disagree but surely we have to look a LOT further than one individual bet, eg. IF your average return is $1.49 (as in my case) which INCLUDES those bastards that finished 4th showing $1, then if there is a S/R of 74% we are on a winner arn't we??