Privateer's Place Punts

[Privateer]

Although I came up with 11 selections overall, these 3 seem to represent the best value for a place.

SYDNEY Race 8 - Kiwi Desire

FLEM Race 8 - Fillary

BRIS Race 8 - Glen Monarch

All being in the last race, hopefully we can end the day with SOME money left!

[Placegetter]

Glen Monarch! Impressive. How did the other 8 go?

[Privateer]

Ended up with 6 bets after scratchings and no bets at Flemington due to wet track. 4 placings, all in Brisbane...Awesome Weather, Prince Hakeem, Threatner and Glen Monarch. Cool Chick & Kiwi Desire let me down in Sydney.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Privateer on 2002-05-01 16:29 ]</font>

[Dougie]

Privateer did you have a bet yesterday? How did you go? Is your method based on your stats?

Doug

[Privateer]

Saturdays results:

7 bets for 4 placings...

Losers: Pentathlon & Leander Hall (Syd) &
Wagstaffe (BR)
Placed: Awesome Night (BR) $1.60
Dudley Do Right (SR) $3.00
Yammer (AR) $1.50
Firetain (AR) $3.30

Not a great day, but I'm happy enough. Pentathlon ended up a very poor bet and I've revised a thing or two to overcome doing that again.

All selections are obtained from my own method.




<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Privateer on 2002-04-28 11:52 ]</font>

[Placegetter]

So do I make up the three musketeers then, when I say that Pentathlon was a hurdle I didn't get over also?

I wonder if I wasn't such a big fan of Octagonal, would I be following his progeny so closely? I'm not a bloodlines student, so I feel at ease making this comment.

Do any bloodlines followers have 2c?

[Privateer]

G'day Brumby

Pentathlon was a method selection but had I known it would come up so short I would never have backed it. I backed Dudley Do Right also, so I won on the race.

You say that you've altered your selection criteria following the loss of Helsinborg. I hope that includes the criteria 'don't ever bet on a wet track' I did the form for Melbourne and actually had Helsinborg rated 6th pick.

Here's one to follow: Peppi The Pug in Adelaide....would have won the last yesterday
if the jockey had come to the outside.

Why do jocks do that? Try and get impossible runs through the field when a blind man can see if they come to the extreme outside they win.

cheers

Privateer

[Researcher]

Have been following your "stats" method from another post without the 92% factor.A couple of races I have followed produced the following results.
27/4/02
BR2/2 Paralo 2nd $1.50
BR5/6 unplaced
BR6/5 I,m in Heaven 3rd $2.00
BR7/3 Lord Essex 1st $6.80/$2.20.

28/4/02
SC4/4 3rd $1.90
SC5/3 2nd $1.30
SC7/5 1st $4.70/$1.60.
Encouraging results so far.Most place systems seem to pick mostly favourites.
With your system, Mr Magic's system and another system I have, the trifecta was picked in BR7 on Saturday.All three systems are based around Average Prizemoney.
However I only pick for a place.

[Bhagwan]

Dear Privateer;
I would like to take up your offer of the staking plan you use for place betting.
Please send to.
brianonthepunt@hotmai.com

[Privateer]

Good on ya Researcher! Keep going mate! Great to hear that somebody that also wins from place betting. So much for those here who say never bet for a place, eh?

[mr magic]

Nice set of results Researcher. One thing about them jumped out of the page at me though.
YOU WOULD HAVE WON MORE BETTING FOR THE WIN.
Given that your win ratio was 2/7 and place 6/7, you would have thought that the circumstances were ideal for a place plan to be superior. It wasn't.
Most selections provide twice as many placegetters as winners, not three times as many. Even at three times as many collects you are still worse off as your weekend results show.
Good on you for winning, you're ahead of the pack. But this is how I see it. There are two notes laying on the ground, a 50 and a 100. The place bettor picks up the $50 and says "Beauty, I'm in front". He's right, but he could have done a lot better.
Go through your records, I'll guarantee I'm right.