AFL player ratings

[moeee]

Last year I tried rating teams efforts for every game they played in the last 12 months.
Then I would use these ratings to predict what the team will do next week.
The assessed ratings were a prediction of the final score for each team.
So by subtracting one score from the other,I would have my expected margin for the coming game.

This year I intend to rate each player and add up each individual player in the coming game.
The tally will again be the team's predicted score.
Did make a profit last year and hopefully can go slightly better again!

[Sportz]

You would have to take very careful notice of any injuries and late team changes Mo.

[Sportz]

Word of warning. Sometimes just the basic stats like kicks and handballs don't tell the full story. You can sometimes have the lesser team just chipping and handpassing the ball around in their backline picking up easy stats but not really doing anything and not threatening the other team. Meanwhile the top teams often just take a few possessions to go from one end to the other and score. The stats can be deceptive. I mean, just going purely on stats, Chris Judd is a good player but certainly nothing outstanding.

[Betsy]

My two cents: Best just to stick to overall team ratings, too many variables to hone in on each player, such as players who are playing tagging roles etc won't rack up the stats that other midfielders may etc

Do you also believe you can keep records on over 400 players?

[DR RON]

Moeee, the way Richmond buggarise around with it your rankings for them would be out every week. Lots of stats getting to the forward 50 and then nothing on the end of it.

By the way, nice to see a woman interested in sports betting Betsy, not too many around.

[Sportz]

By the way, nice to see a woman interested in sports betting Betsy, not too many around.

Are you sure? You can't necessarily tell someone's gender just by forum usernames as I found out with one other person.

I hope you're right, because I do agree with you. It WOULD be nice to see a woman interested in betting on sport. :)

[knowledge]

lol I thought Betsy meant like "bet" sy.

[DR RON]

I must admit my wife enjoys a bet on the horses just as much as I do, which gets me going on another topic.

I went to Caulfield on Boxing Day, the first time on a track for about a year. $15 for an adult and $10 for a child for an ordinary meeting at best. My family were away with the outlaws in another country but if they were with me it would have cost me $60 just to get in, add another 20 or so for food and refreshment and thats $80 gone without laying a bet. For a $5 and $10 man like me thats a lot of money to LOOSE before placing a bet. And they wonder why no one goes to the bread and butter meetings. The less people that go the less bookies we will have which leaves the punter worse off. I watched the bookies odds for the entire time between races and the % fluctuated between 125% and 145 %
even the top flucuations would have lucky to match the 115% mark of the tote.
I can see the day when on course bookies are no more and it is coming sooner rather than later. They could however try to help themselves by offering decent odds, after all that would be the only reason alot of people would go to the races, to get a bit of competition. For the $80 I would sooner go to the pub and spend 30 on beer and loose 50.

[Sportz]

No way would I pay those prices.

[Betsy]

lol I thought Betsy meant like "bet" sy.
Yeah im a bloke, betsy is our dogs name - i thought the Bet part was relevant

[Sportz]

Yeah, thought as much. Your posts just didn't sound like a woman.

I'm sure you're real glad about that! :D

[DR RON]

NIce pick up knowledge.
Apologies BETSY, nice to have you aboard anyway.

[moeee]

Word of warning. Sometimes just the basic stats like kicks and handballs don't tell the full story.
I mean, just going purely on stats, Chris Judd is a good player but certainly nothing outstanding.

Yes Sportz,some good comments as usual.
Firstly,I have mentioned the Champion Data Rankings that are available in a Melbourne newspaper.
A couple of guys sit and watch the replays of games and credit players stats with a much more accurate analysis of what each stat was worth.
Less points for easy marks,more for contested ones.No points for the rubbish stats.
Hopefully the newspaper will continue to publish these ratings.
I still haven't got them into my database as it is very time consuming.

What I will do is to add up the total of each players Champion game rating.Divide that total into the rating that I give the team for that particular match.Then multiply this number by the players individual Champion rating to give a final computer rating.

And I may be reading your comment on Juddy wrongly,but he really is an outstanding player Sportz!

[moeee]

Do you also believe you can keep records on over 400 players?

I don't need to keep the actual stats,much the same way as Don Scott,non-football personality,used to represent a horses perfomance by a single weight rating.
Once the game has been analyzed there will be only a final ratings figure for each player for each game.The actual stats that occurred will no longer be necessary.

[moeee]

Moeee, the way Richmond buggarise around with it your rankings for them would be out every week. Lots of stats getting to the forward 50 and then nothing on the end of it.


Yes Doctor.
But the rating will not only reflect the number of possesions.
I have noticed many a game where the losing team had fewer or similar number of possessions.
I intend to link the possessions to the actual score scored and also to the quality of the opposition.
Like Richmond beating Bulldogs wouldn't be worth as much as them beating the Lions.
And also plenty of stats against Brisbane but still coming out with a hiding will also be allowed for in the players ratings being downgraded.

[Sportz]

And I may be reading your comment on Juddy wrongly,but he really is an outstanding player Sportz!

Yeah, you were reading it wrongly. :)

I know he's an outstanding player, but that's what I mean. Just going by the regular stats, he's a good player but nowhere near as good as he appears when you watch the games. If you're right about how they do those rankings you talk about, then it could be a good idea.

[moeee]

Well Sportz,nice to see we agree on Judd's capabilities.

And with the ratings I have been through so far,which is round 8 - 2004,It came up with Simon Black as best the player.Second best was Warren Tredrea with no sign of Chris Judd.
So maybe Juddy ain't as complete a player as I figured.More of a sprinter rather than a stayer!

[Sportz]

Well, as a Brisbane fan, I know that Judd cuts us up every damn time we play them. I think he's a brilliant player and I did actually back him in the Brownlow last year. Having said that, I was totally stunned that he got twice as many votes as Tredrea who I thought was great last year. I really only backed Judd because he was the sole midfielder out of the 3 players I liked (Judd, Tredrea, Reiwoldt) and once again, the umpires continued their tradition of only noticing midfielders.

[moeee]

And that's the key Sportznut.
When you make a selection,what are you actually trying to do?
For the Brownlow you are not trying to pick the best player,but the most noticeable player.Although Riewoldt is fairly conspicuous,but didn't poll all that well.
Anyway,I am going to use my player ratings and compare the players rating with what that player rated when he last played against the opposition.
Because,as we all know,some teams play much better against certain teams.Sydney and West Coast always play well against Brisbane.

Sportz.I miss Goldmember.Do you?

[Sportz]

Yeah, I hope he at least comes back for the Football season, so he can take part in the tipping comps. I liked the stats that he posted for us for each game and he was pretty good with Basketball tips too.

[moeee]

Adam Simpson had a great start for the year for the Kangaroos in 2004.
He was never in the market for the Brownlow and ended up with 10 points.
I think it just goes to show that while you think you may be getting value by betting early,you're probably not!

[Sportz]

But Simpson's not a vote winner Mo. He just goes about his business week in week out racking up possessions without being really spectacular like some other players. He's the sort of player that gets 25+ possessions just about every week and goes almost unnoticed whereas if Judd gets 25+ possessions, he's almost certain to get 3 points.

[moeee]

And again you have come up with the reason computer selection programs need the final human touch.
How on earth do you program what you just said into a computer program.
When I finally get up and running,I will look at what the computer spits out and just play somewhat with the figures if they don't look quite right.
Like in the horse rating thread,many people came up with many different prices.Some more different than others.Some more accurate than others.(hangs his head down low).