How can you tell a real favourite on the TAB?

[dingoboy]

Gday to all who have a look at this.

I dont know if the light bulb above my head has just been switched on,.....but,

when we say that approx 30% of all races are won by the favourite, what are we really talking about ?
I just whatched NZR5 on NSW TAB internet, the race jumped, the ruddy race nearly finnished and the favourite on the TAB was nolonger the favourite,...it changed whilst the BL@#*Y race was running.

Should it therfore be looked on that if you use the TAB for your "favourites" selection that more often what you back (even to the jump) is not the favourite, more like the second or third, which would mean that "systems" and "plans" that take into account the principle of betting on favs are therefore doomed?

I understand that little men sit in rooms at race tracks, fed and watered, loved and carred for, they are the "big spenders" that are allowed to put and take off bets i believe even after the jump, this would then have said effect along with last minute "updates" from internet bets comming in.

I therfore, and i might be called stuppid, have just had a relevation, i dont trust it no longer !

Am i on the right track ?

Dingoboy

[Shaun]

This is why you can't trust the prices from the TAB you can only trust your own judgement....when we talk about a 30%SR it is a general all over statement meaning no matter where you get your prices from the favourite will win these 30% of races.....when i am looking at prices i look at Unitab not because i bet with them just because i find them the most user friendly site take a look at the pools with 5 minutes to go midweek then look 2 minutes then jump time most times the pool will double or even triple in size now this must have an adverse affect on the prices of the horse especialy if there is a large go for one particular horse.

[Dirk Gently]

Hi Dingo, hows it been going dince you went live? I never could get any emails through.
Regarding true favourites, I have given up trying to follow tote prices midweek because as shaun says the pools are too small until close to the jump to give any true indication. If IAS is posting fixed odds prices these are a good guide but they only offer them on the metro meetings (and only some as far as I can gather.
PS don't worry about the big spenders getting the royal treatment, we are quite benevolent really (ha ha!)

[Squirter]

G' day Dingo,

It's not only the little men sitting in their back rooms well watered and cared for, but the thousands of us sitting in front of our screens "Dutching" and "laying" everything in sight in the last few seconds that adds to the problem.

Cheers.

[dingoboy]

Gday Dirk,
Good to hear from you,
yeh not too bad since i started, have been a little busy over chrissy and new year but it has worked,...you know what im talking about, ive doubled the start three times then it gets scary cause of the size. Ive had a problem with the returm email adress, give it a go now, it should be OK, ive had an email from Laish and that was OK, make sure its FONEF--- not FOEF---, give it a whirl.
Too true squirter, too true !
Take care lads
Dingodeboy