Weight ratings experiment

[DR RON]

Sportz and I have come up with the idea of rating one race, using weight ratings so that that we can get an idea of how close or wide appart our ratings can be. Rules are:

Melbourne Races
Saturday
Handicap
10-14 Starters

Price your ratings to 100% and list yourtop 5 including prices. The first race will be Saturday 8Th Caulfield Race 6 Woorack Handicap.

Any starters please leave your names.

Already in
DR RON
Sportz
Brave Chief

[Shaun]

Do they have to be weiight ratings....or just rating in finishing order....i can rate a race and give prices ....i think..not really into prices

[Top Rank]

I am brand new to the forum but would like to give you my ratings for this saturday Dr Ron.

Thanks and good punting
Top Rank

[DR RON]

Shaun,
post your ratings, but specify they are not weight based. If they produce the goods it might make people rethink there methods.

Therefore: New rule
any ratings but specify what sort they are.

[Sportz]

Shaun, you don't need to worry about prices if you don't really want to (although it would give other forumers an idea of how far you rate one horse in front of another). All you really need to do is put your top 5 in order and as Ron said, just tell us what sort of rating approach you're using.

[DR RON]

Welcome aboard Top Rank

[Shaun]

I will see if i can add a pricing to them if not will put the actual rating that my excel sheet gives

[Chrome Prince]

I'll have a go thanks :D

[Shaun]

Are one of you going to pick the races we rate in or is it up to us

[Sportz]

It's in the opening post of the thread Shaun. Just one race this week to start off with: Caulfield Race 6.

We'll just see how we go this week. We might make it 2 or 3 races in future weeks. We're concentrating basically on Open Hcps with fields of around 10-14, mainly in Melbourne but we'll probably use Sydney as well in future.

[system]

im in guys should be fun.and i,ll try to do weight ratings,havent really used them b4.

[Chrome Prince]

Caulfield Race 6 (In order with prices)

CAUVERY $4.10
CLOSE ENCOUNTERS $5.20
UNDER THE BRIDGE $7.90
HARDY STEELE $10.70
PRAY IN VAIN $15.20

Just my top 5 and prices are just very very rough.

[Shaun]

2-Under the Bridge (7)--$6.08
3-Ruben (11)--$6.23
4--Cauvery (GB) (12)--$6.40
6--Hardy Steele (10)--$8.54
9--Pray in Vain (1)--$8.54

very interesting...don't like the race much as the form is patchy but anyways thats how i rate them

[system]

melb race 6
no 8 close encounter $4.7
no 2 under the bridge $5.2
no 6 hardy steele $5.5
no 3 ruben $5.5
no 5 pink fit $8.7

[the mug]

Hey guys,
i'll give it a go too if thats ok.. Will post my ratings later today/tonite...

thanks.

[La Mer]

Pink Fit $4.00
Hardy Steele $5.50
Ruben $7.50
Pray In Vain $7.50
Go Straight Home $10.00

[Chrome Prince]

Already we are seeing completely different order and some different horses. This is going to be very interesting excercise. I must say my ratings are not weight ratings as such, but class and fitness.

[Shaun]

Yes i should have stated that my ratings are based on fitness,form,track and distance, place% and my own special average prize money system...then i tie all this up to produce that price

[system]

hi dudes these are weight ratings i just put together 1st set of ratings were my own ratings.
no3 $2.4
no2 $5.5
no5 $8.6
no8 $12.1
no6 $14.2

[Top Rank]

Here are my ratings. Thought this was a difficult open race and has the smell of "best to sit and watch race".
Ruben - $5.00
Under The Bridge - $5.00
Close Encounter - $6.70
Hardy Steele - $7.30
Go Straight Home - $8.30

Thanks and good punting

[Chuck]

Can i have a shot?...prices to come...

[Sportz]

No you can't Chuck.

Just kidding. Of course you can.

[Chuck]

i'm going to go and have a cry ...lol...i might occasionally stop to watch Molik and Baccanello demolish the yanks

[DR RON]

Well here goes nothing.

6. Hardy Steele $3.15
5 Pink Fit $ 4.55
3 Ruben $ 7.25
8 Close Encounters $12.50
7 Call Me Syd $15.85

[Imagele]

HARDY STEELE 110.5
PRAY IN VAIN 109.5
PINK FIT 109
RUBEN 107.5
UNDER THE BRIDGE 107.5
CLOSE ENCOUNTER 106.5
CAUVERY 106
KEL 105

[Svenvlad]

I might have a crack...

Pink Fit - $4.00
Hardy Steele - $4.90
Call Me Syd - $5.00
Pray In Vain - $6.80
Under The Bridge - $10.10

Good Luck :)

Sven

[brave chief]

i actually see a pattern emerging. i quite like this race too. lack of early pace should be an issue so some horses will be disadvantaged.

Dry:

Hardy Steele 64 3.30
Pray in Vain 62.5 5.50
Pink Fit 62 6.60
Call Me Syd 60.5 10.00
Cauvery 60 11.80

If it's wet, i'll subtract 3.5 kg of Call Me Syd's rating.

[La Mer]

To get a gauge of how those that participate perform, why not do a Dutch Book excercise of each of the five selections to return a $100 i.e.

A: Rated $4 outlay = $25
B: Rated $6 outlay = $ 16.50
C: Rated $8 outlay = $12.50
D: Rated $10 outlay = $10
E: Rated $12 outlay = $8.50
Total outlay = $72.50

If A won at SP odds of $5 then the return would be $125, a profit overall of $52.50.

If on the other hand A won at SP odds of $3 the return would be $75, a profit of $2.50.

[DR RON]

Good idea La Mer.

[QuickFunBet]

5. Pink Fit $5.50
3. Ruben $6.60
11. Go Straight Home $7.70
2. Under The Bridge $8.80
6. Hardy Steele $9.90

Thanks

[La Mer]

Seeing as you started this theme Dr. Ron and unless anyone has any objections, then I'll happy to monitor the performance of those that pariticipate. You pick the races, but all I ask is that there is no more than one race in Melbourne and one race in Sydney and I'll post the ongoing performance, probably on Sunday at some stage and if not no later than Monday.

[DR RON]

Thanks La Mer, that would be great.

[Sportz]

I think perhaps we should make this week just a bit of a trial run though and get more serious about it next week.

[Shaun]

HA HA...Sportz...not feeling the preasure are we....think we are all beyond tests here......try my Dutching calculator out

you can choose to return a set amount or to profit a set amount

[Sportz]

Well, it's just that we came up with this idea at short notice, and not everyone may be ready, especially with the pricing aspect of it. I think one person didn't post any prices at all.

[the mug]

Okay here we go...
Melbourne R6

no.6 Hardy Steele $2.25
no.5 Pink Fit $5.50
no.9 Pray in Vain $6.50
no.3 Ruben $16.00
no.7 Call me Syd $16.00


Good Luck all...

[Shaun]

my ideas are based on somthing i read 15 years ago they are not based on common ratings but they are based on common form for example a horse has run leass than 6 lengths in it's last 3 starts it gets a value the horse has a particular strike rate it gets another value....so my ratings are kinda based on a lot of other peoples but they would have to be...it is no good me having ratings saying i will give 10 points to a horse that ran 20 lengths last 3 that makes no sense so if you base your rating on form and other things you are going to have similar horse in your list...if you look at our list we all have similar horses some are different but not a great deal....but the ratings are different aren't they some are weight based some are speed based and some are form based....in reality no matter what ratings you use if they are sound then you will have a better chance to get the winners.

[system]

winners yes price?????

[Shaun]

yes i understand getting price...problem is a you can't dictate what the price is that you get for a winner....i admit i look at certain types of races as you would know if you check out my document this thread it lists all my selections for tomorrow...i gues tha mian thing is to steer clear o lower priced horses even if they are your top rank...i have a $4 min for price that i will except even thought my SR will be lower doing this it is enough to make money...backing short priced winners is a quick way to the poor house.

[Chuck]

Under the Bridge: $5.10
Close Encounter: $6.00
Hardy Steele: $6.00
Pink Fit: $7.40
Ruben: $11.00

[nulla]

Guess based ratings
NO3 - 2.90
8 - 5.60
2 - 6.00
5 - 6.50
4 - 6.50

Omen all up MR2 NO3 into MR4 NOS 2/4

[moeee]

Nulla done a guess based ratings market so I thought I'll have a go.

3. RUEBEN $2.80
2. UNDER THE BRIDGE $6.50
1. GUNNAMATTA $8.00
10. MYSTIC MORSE $9.00

Nice to see this thread so well supported.Don't normally follow horses but I'll be at the tote today with the prices and let you all know how I went.

[Heavyweight]

If you'd indulge me, I would like to have a bash at this. Long time since I've done weight ratings (my spreadsheet still returns old-fashioned odds), but here they are:

3. Ruben 11/4
6. Hardy Steele 11/4
5. Pink Fit 13/2
7. Call Me Syd 8/1
2. Under the Bridge 10/1

My current method (consistency, fitness, class, form) has Ruben $3.80, Hardy Steele $5.50, Cauvery $7.20, Under the Bridge $7.30 and Pray in Vain $7.90.

The way I've been going, this should give people a guide on the ones to avoid!

[Sportz]

Omen all up MR2 NO3 into MR4 NOS 2/4

:D

The horse Foreplay is going to cause a few problems for tipsters and racecallers. On the radio this morning, I heard things like "I like Foreplay a lot' and "I'm very keen on Foreplay today".

[TheAvenger]

HAHA.

Glenn

[Imagele]

Let's see how Supertab T/Form ratings go against everyone else.
Ruben 100
Under The Bridge 96
Pink Fit 95
Hardy Steele 94
Cauvery 92
Pray In Vain 91
Mystic Morse 91

[system]

cool shaun

[Chuck]

having watched the race i was wanting foreplay to keep going!

[La Mer]

Imagle - Converting the Techform top-five ratings into prices works out as follows:

Ruben $3.00
Under The Bridge $5.00
Pink Fit $6.00
Hardy Steele $7.50
Cauvery $10.00

[Sportz]

having watched the race i was wanting foreplay to keep going!

Yes Chuck. Foreplay was pretty disappointing today. No great climax for favourite punters who were left unsatisfied.

[Sportz]

Here's the Unitab ratings for the race:

5 PINK FIT 100
6 HARDY STEELE 97
9 PRAY IN VAIN 97
2 UNDER THE BRIDGE 96
3 RUBEN 96

[La Mer]

Sportz - Unitab ratings converted to odds:

PINK FIT $4.50
HARDY STEELE $6.50
PRAY IN VAIN $6.50
UNDER THE BRIDGE$8.00
RUBEN $8.00

[Sportz]

I've been trialling two different ratings methods and I'm not sure which is best yet, so if you guys don't mind, I'll post both sets of ratings for this week.

Method 1: (Simple weight based ratings)
6 Hardy Steele (62) $4.30
9 Pray In Vain (60.5) $7.10
3 Ruben (59.5) $9.70
5 Pink Fit (59.5) $9.70
8 Close Encounter (59.5) $9.70

Method 2: (More complex points based ratings)
5 PINK FIT (107) $3.45
6 HARDY STEELE (107) $3.45
9 PRAY IN VAIN (105.5) $5.75
3 RUBEN (103.5) $10.40
8 CLOSE ENCOUNTER (102.5) $14.30

[Sportz]

Hardy Steele 64 3.30
Pray in Vain 62.5 5.50
Pink Fit 62 6.60
Call Me Syd 60.5 10.00
Cauvery 60 11.80


Well done. The first 4 paid $3350 up here.

[Shaun]

Well looking at the results i would say weight ratings won that race

[Sportz]

Between the lot of us, I think we did pretty well.

[Shaun]

i like this thread...alowes me to test weight ratings with out doing the work...lol

[moeee]

Don't know about that Sportznut.I ain't givin' up my day job!

From the early bets posted I declare Imagele the winner from a dead heat for second between Brave Chief and The Mug,with La Mer a very close up fourth.

I backed RUBEN and I can't wait for the AFL season to start!

[La Mer]

After Round 1:

Name Return
Brave Chief $71.00
Unitab $53.75
The Mug $40.75
La Mer $34.75
Svenvlad $33.25
Shaun $26.75
Betfair $21.00
Sporting Odds $17.00
Chrome Prince -$16.75
Quick Fun Bet -$67.50
Moeee -$74.50
Chuck -$75.00
Top Rank -$80.50
Dr. Ron -$82.00
System -$86.50
Heavyweight -$86.50
Techform -$93.50
Nulla -$100.00

The Betfair and Sporting Odds based on last odds on offer.

[moeee]

La Mer.
Congratulations on your excellent effort.
Just pointing out that Imagele has not been assessed in your analysis.
I thought Imagele dun good.

[Sportz]

Imagele didn't actually provide any prices, but I guess La Mer could work them out as he has done with a couple of the others.

Neither of my two methods have been assessed either, not that I'm really worried about it. It's just a bit of fun.

[moeee]

Don't be disheartened Sportz!
I've noticed how well at least one of your sets of ratings went.
You will always be one of my favourites as I'm sure you are with many other contributors.
But God damn it!.It sure does make you feel good when someone acknowledges your effort.
WELL DONE cobber!

[Sportz]

I wasn't disheartened Mo.

....but thanks anyway. :)

[La Mer]

Imagele not only didn't supply any prices but also listed about eight selections. Sportz when I checked just on racetime your two sets of ratings were not there. However, I will redo the list adding in both your sets and that of Imagele's - stay tuned.

[system]

i think that went well on a whole. but i,d rather we only back the overs of our selections.value!!!!!!!!!!!
dont worry i still did my a*se.
question was race run at slow tempo.???
because brave cheif indicated that it would be and he almost got top 4 in order.and i didnt take the pace of race into consideration.

[Sportz]

Sportz when I checked just on racetime your two sets of ratings were not there.

Yeah, sorry about that. I posted them just as they jumped.

[Sportz]

Don't be disheartened Sportz!


Certainly not disheartened now as I managed to find Ceffyl at $45 in the last at the Gold Coast. You beauty. I wish I could pick races like that for the tipping comp.

[La Mer]

Updated results:

Name Return
Brave Chief $71.00
Sportz 2 $56.75
Unitab $53.75
Imagele $53.50
Sportz 1 $49.50
The Mug $40.75
La Mer $34.75
Svenvlad $33.25
Shaun $26.75
Betfair $21.00
Sporting Odds $17.00
Chrome Prince -$16.75
Quick Fun Bet -$67.50
Moeee -$74.50
Chuck -$75.00
Top Rank -$80.50
Dr. Ron -$82.00
System -$86.50
Heavyweight -$86.50
Techform -$93.50
Nulla -$100.00

[Sportz]

Can I ask what the references to Betfair and Sporting Odds are all about???

[La Mer]

Sportz - as mentioned a lit earlier I took the closing prices on offer at both Betfair and Sporting Odds and applied a Dutch Book to the first five favourite with each of the two betting agencies. They both had the same five horses in the same order but with slight varying odds. I just did it as a reference to how we performed as against the betting market.

As an aside, using the market as a tool for Dutch Booking It a way of making money if the right races are picked, but I mean the right races.

[DR RON]

Sportz, Your choice of race next week.

La Mer, could you elaborate on your comment of the right races.

[brave chief]

This is from sportscolour:

Fisrt 600m was run in 37.17 sec (83.68-46.51) and last 600m was run in 35.42. So yea that was a muddling pace, not slow but. They came home quicker than they went out, as is evidenced by Pray in Vain vying for the lead all the way and winning.

I simply backed Hardy Steele and Pray in Vain straight out (level bet) and boxed them in the quinella (paid $18.10 here)

In regards to pace, the first thing i did was try to gauge the speed in the race and do a crude speed map. the speed was drawn wide and there didn't appear to be a lot. I actually thought Hardy Steele would lead with Ruben on his outside, with Pray in Vain stalking the pace on the fence, Pink Fit on his outside.

I had a few queries regarding a few of these runners and was confident one of my top 2 would win. Ruben worried me turning for home, but he ended up being suspect at 1400m. Obviously i wish races panned out like that more often :p

Here are my pre-race thoughts

[Shaun]

Well i am not sure what he means by the right races and i am not making excuses for my result...but that melbourne race was not the best race for me.....i like races with plenty of open form and i have always performed better over longer ground...but it was only 1 race we will see what we come up with next week.....Good on you sportz for that winner...kinda makes the day a lot better when you get those ones hey

[Sportz]

Thanks Shaun. :)

Yep, I had a GREAT day betting on the Gold Coast today and if you want to know why, take a look at the winners of R1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8 & 9 and see if you can spot why.

Just wish I had put them all in the tipping comp.

[brave chief]

lol, so you didn't back Bradbury's, huh?

[Sportz]

No, I didn't. :D

I didn't bet in that race apart from a trifecta which I lost.

I hope you don't think I'm bragging. Really nothing special in picking all those winners as I was backing 2 or 3 horses per race. Have you worked out what they all had in common yet?

[Shaun]

the old inside/outside barriers again hey mate

[Sportz]

Yep, love 'em Shaun, especially in biggish fields with open betting. Don't usually do as well as today though. 6 barrier 1 winners in one meeting is incredible.

[DR RON]

Caulfield

Barrier 1

Races 7
Winners 3

Outlay $7
Return $23.10 using unitab prices.

Includes our nominated weight ratings race.

[DR RON]

Its usually about now someone will come in with long term stats that show a loss on turnover.

[Sportz]

You can't just back barrier 1 blindly in every race and make a profit Ron. But even so, it's the first thing I look at in most races. If I think the horses starting from the inside or outside barrier have a good chance, then I start to get really interested, especially in big fields like at the Gold Coast today.

[Imagele]

Don't know what all this crap is about not posting prices.
As far as posting 8 selections, so what?
My selections were the chances in order. I was obviously not going to back my 8th. selection to win.
My selections down to number 7 did go in the trifecta however as follows:
Trifecta: 6-9/5-6-9/2-3-4-5-6-8-9.
Invest $20-00.
Return,$212-00.
Good value in anyone's book.
Throw in the quinella and exacta and it was a good result from the top 3 picks.
Who says the only way to get value is to bet straight out.?

[Chrome Prince]

Can't for the life of me work out how I'm in negative territory if this was dutch bet?

[Sportz]

Well, I think La Mer based it on the prices posted and you only had Pray In Vain rated around the $15 mark. Don't take that too seriously Chrome. I'm not. I'm just treating it as a bit of fun and a good way of comparing my methods with other forumers'.

[system]

hi fellas i think this whole idea came from a question i asked in another post about weight and speed ratings as im confused as to how all these diffrent sites come up with theres and which would be best.and what critera they use to come up with them.and dr ron got in on act trying to help and sportz and dr ron came up with this.
but i still think as far as bets go we should only be backing the overs(value runnners) of our assigned prices.
cause there,s no way i would back anything under what i think is a horse,s true price.and i dont think you guys would back something you rate $4.00 chance and it paying $1.50.

[La Mer]

[QUOTE=Imagele]Don't know what all this crap is about not posting prices.
As far as posting 8 selections, so what?

Imagele - It's not crap as Dr. Ron stated at the start of this theme, "Price your ratings to 100% and list yourtop 5 including prices"

Most did just that, but you didn't and that's the only point I was making - no big deal as I can convert ratings to prices in a few seconds.

As a matter of interest do you convert your ratings to prices at all and if you don't how do you know if a selection is anything like a value price? Or do you stick simply to exotic betting so see no need to price your selections?

Congratulations on your collect.

[La Mer]

Can't for the life of me work out how I'm in negative territory if this was dutch bet?

Chrome - This is how the staking and return worked out on your selections.

Horse Rated Price Stake
CAUVERY $4.10 $24.50
CLOSE ENCOUNTERS $5.20 $19.00
UNDER THE BRIDGE $7.90 $12.50
HARDY STEELE $10.70 $9.50
PRAY IN VAIN $15.20 $6.50

Pray In Vain SP'd at $8.50 therefore your $6.50 stake returned a $55.25 on a total outlay of $72, making an overall loss of $16.75

[Chrome Prince]

Thanks for the reply La Mer.

I was under the impression it was a dutch bet, but it looks more like a target bet.

Thanks.

[topsy99]

ref interest in barriers. the interest raised by me was caused by the habit of brisbane favorites being reefed to the rear of the field if they draw wide.
i think a recent poster suggested it may be caused by the placement of the rail.
even so it is of interest and often means the fave can be discarded.

i was interested in the sky commentators discussion on black ink after the race regarding being at the rear all the way and getting fourth.
the mistake was he got close.
most dont feature but black ink was a good run albeit a losing one.

[Sportz]

Okay, I've created a points system for assessing how our ratings went. La Mer's betting method is a bit subjective and based only on finding the winner, so I thought this might be another way to look at it. Obviously the more accurate you are in your top 5 ratings the better. 100 is a perfect score. You have to be a genius or have a genius rating method to get that. Brave Chief and The Mug went pretty close.

Brave Chief 92.5
The Mug 87.5
Imagele 75
Svenlad 75
Unitab Rtgs 70
Sportz (1) 70
Sportz (2) 70
La Mer 62.5
Heavyweight (2) 32.5
Shaun 27.5
Dr Ron 27.5
Heavyweight (1) 27.5
Chrome Prince 25
Chuck 17.5
QuickFunBet 17.5
System (2) 17.5
Supertab Rtgs 17.5
System (1) 15
nulla 7.5
Top Rank 7.5
Moeee 2.5

[system]

cheers sportz hope everyone happy with new way.

[DR RON]

I am as I"m a couple of places higher than with La Mer's method.

[topsy99]

i have been watching with interest this thread.
it brings back memories of trialling all thoughts of methods over the years.
taking into account the prices gained and the calcullations of weight and barrier and jockey and margins and whatever else goes into making a selection the outcomes will rely on committment and the guts to follow through with these outcomes.
the likelihood of co-incidence comes into it to. a system has to be right some of the time even if its the above simply because of the amount of variables that come into calculating a winner.
on the weekend the percentage of winners paying under 7.5-1 (must be careful with that) was shown to be >70 in allmost all capitals.
plus 33% being favorites and 55% coming from the top 5 in the weights it gets very complicated.

it makes me tired thinking about all the complications.
i know what enthusiasm will do in racing. but fortune favors the brave and i think racing comes down to this.
best wishes and good luck to the enthusiasts.
i have a book that i bought 25 years ago (american) written by a guy who had been punting for 32 years (new york) and he had never met anyone who lived off the punt>
i know computers probably have improved that but there always seems to be something going on to defeat all the best methods.

[Sportz]

under 7.5-1 (must be careful with that)

:D

[Duritz]

Well I just sat down with a beer and logged onto this site. Haven't been on in the last week as my laptop has been up the shizenhausen, but have borrowed another one whilst it is getting fixed. So, saw this thread just now and thought, "interesting". Three beers later and I have finally read it all. So, how do I join up? I missed the first week for the reasons above, how about just giving me Brave Chief's tips? If you trust me, below are my top five picks at 100% odds, you can back rate me. Up to you.

Duritz.

Oh yeah, and about that Foreplay race - I thought it answered an age old debate, in that Golfyn proved superior to Foreplay.............

Prices:

race 6 4.30
seln mgn price name
8 0.0 $4.4 CLOSE ENCOUNTER
6 0.8 $6.6 HARDY STEELE
9 0.8 $6.7 PRAY IN VAIN
10 1.1 $8.1 MYSTIC MORSE
3 1.2 $8.7 RUBEN

[system]

its cool with me duritz

[Chrome Prince]

Well, I think La Mer based it on the prices posted and you only had Pray In Vain rated around the $15 mark. Don't take that too seriously Chrome. I'm not. I'm just treating it as a bit of fun and a good way of comparing my methods with other forumers'.

Hi Sportz,

I guess it came across as a bit of sour grapes or nitpicking, but I can assure you it wasn't.

It was a bit of fun and was unlucky not to get the chocolates.

I was just confused if this was dutching how I could be in loss, but La Mer has explained.

Cheers.

[Imagele]

And why would you not be in bed at this ungodly hour?

[Sportz]

Duritz,

I was wondering where you got to, because I thought you would have been very keen to have a go at this. Same with Filante. I thought he would have given it a try if he had seen the thread.

For what it's worth, those ratings would have scored 45 points using my scoring system, putting you in 9th place. I believe you with the bung computer and I'd like to allow you to use those ratings, but it hardly seems fair on the guys that got their ratings in this week and scored less than that. Also it might lead to a whole heap of "my dog ate my homework" stories from others who don't get their ratings in in future. ;)

As I said previously, I actually thought we could have made this week just a bit of a trial run and started doing it seriously next week. However, now that I've started out pretty well, I'm not so keen on that idea. :D

What does everyone else think? Should we let Duritz use his score from this week?

By the way, the one horse I had trouble with was Close Encounter, resuming from a spell. I notice that some of you (including Duritz) had it very high up and some others didn't have it in the top 5 at all. I find it very difficult to do ratings for first-uppers. I personally didn't give the horse much chance, but he ended up rating in my top 5 for both methods. Call Me Syd was rated 6th, so if not for Close Encounter, I could have had the first 5 horses in my 5 picks. How do you guys work out ratings for first-uppers?

[ubetido]

Hi everyone

Hope to be able to participate if its ok.

Look forward to the next race.

cheers
ubetido

[Sportz]

Ubetucan Ubetido. :)

[system]

sweet with me sportz.

[Top Rank]

Where not playing for sheep stations are we. If Duritz wants in it is fine with me.

Good Punting.

[DR RON]

Seeing the first week was done on such short notice and there was some confusion, maybe we should call that a trial and start over this week, and give a chance to a few late comers. Easy for me to say considering how I performed, but it's up to you guys.

[Sportz]

Yep, it would be hard on someone like Brave Chief or The Mug, but not a bad idea I reckon.

[the mug]

No problem here peoples, its all a bit of fun for us all really...

but geez i was happy being 2nd.. hahaha

[Duritz]

I am fine with any way at all. Quick post about first uppers - they are a nightmare. Better if we had the information like hong kong do, ie all trials and gallops and all work all published, as well as horse weights so you know if they've come back carrying too much weight. As it is, we're fumbling in the dark in Oz with 1st uppers. Some "proven" 1st uppers flop, and others who have stats like 5-0-0-0 1st up suddenly salute. The lack of certainty with them is why I generally avoid 1000m races, they are usually full of them, and why I always do better at the 1400-1600 races. Exposed form, you know where they're at.

Sorry not to be of more help, if anyone has the answer to the riddle I'd also love to hear it.

Duritz

[Heavyweight]

First-uppers bamboozle me as well. I cheat a bit and go to the Wizard formguide to try to see if their previous first-up run is relevant. In the case of Close Encounter, Wizard rated his previous first-up run (beaten 0.4 lengths over 1200 on a good track at Kilmore) at 46.0. The best run of that preparation was his Flemington win 5th-up (56.0). If 56.0, plus a bit of age improvement, was his "expected peak" for this campaign, then his first-up run was going to be some 10kg worse than that. For the "weight ratings experiment", I penalised him 9kg and left him out. Looking back through the other results, I see that the first-up winner Super Elegant (Rubiton Stks) had at his previous preparation received his best rating first-up. If we ignore that preparation (because all 3 runs were on heavy/slow) and look at the previous one, his first-up rating was only 3kg below his best achieved for the preparation. So I wouldn't have docked him very much at all. I don't do weight ratings any more (except for the "experiment"-lots of fun and thanks to all concerned!) but on first glance it looks to me like Super Elegant would have been miles in front. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

[Duritz]

Yes that's true. I didn't penalize Super at all, he's a great horse who almost always performs, he carries weight and he was always going to be trying to win that race. I returned him his peak on my figs and that made him top pick. He prob didn't run to his best but close was good enough. Again, they are really a case by case thing I reckon. Using their last first up rating means you back a lot of losers, let me assure you of that, as they most certainly do NOT necessarily repeat again. One of Mark Read's comments in this respect is "out well, in well" and that does hold. (ie if they went out to a spell in bad form they come back in bad form, if they went out in good form, they come back in good form).

I'll let you ponder that one, grasshopper.

Duritz.

[Sportz]

Well, what I've been doing is taking an average rating from the horse's last start and the horse's last first-up start, but I wasn't confident that was the right way to go. Going by what you reckon Mark Read said, perhaps it may have some merit?

[Duritz]

Yeah it may, but as I said, there is really no correct answer. Again, if we had the horse's weight (of course I am talking about it's physical weight, not weight to carry) it would be of extreme benefit, as well as published records of their work. Australian racing is so very cloak and dagger though, there exists this attitude of secrecy, hidden track gallops etc. Backing the horse when it wins, beating the bookie, tricking them, seems to be so important to all concerned, when perhaps the attitude should be that the prizemoney is what we race for. Obviously backing them is a great thrill (I have a small share in a horse who won it's maiden at Benalla yesterday, backing it was a great thrill), however we don't need to be so secretive so that we can get a better price. If it wins, and we back it, we still win, so I think we should publish the track gallops and the horse's weight, have all the information at hand, because - as Hong Kong shows - this makes punting a better proposition, which increases turnover, which ultimately helps the industry. As it stands, I - and I assume therefore others also - don't bet when there's too many horses first up, and the industry loses this combined turnover, simply because the cloak and dagger attitude exists.

Duritz.

[Sportz]

I think ALL horses should have to trial publicly before they're allowed to race.

[Sportz]

Again, if we had the horse's weight (of course I am talking about it's physical weight, not weight to carry) it would be of extreme benefit

There is a chance of that happening. I think they're trying to get it off the ground in Melbourne aren't they?

[Duritz]

Yes I have heard a rumour to that effect. It would be great if it happened. I do the form for Hong Kong as well as Melbourne, and it is a fantastic aid. Perfect example was a horse recently (can't remember who it was) who had performed very badly at his first two runs back, but was 50 pounds over what he was at last prep when he was winning!! You can safely ignore those runs and wait until his weight is right again.

Inform the punter!!! It is he (or she) who holds the industry up!!!

Duritz.

[Shaun]

i am looking forward to this compitition...i have tweaked my ratings and went 16/14 yesterday with top 4

and today am 7/7 so far

[Sportz]

i have tweaked my ratings and went 16/14 yesterday with top 4


I take it you mean 14/16??? :)

[system]

shaun what were the prices

[system]

what race are we doing this week guys

[Sportz]

I've just posted it on a new thread. Not a lot of suitable races this week, but I've decided we'll do R4 & 5 at Caulfield.