Sandown today

[Duritz]

OK have a hangover and haven't done any form for today, but have just quickly had a look at the next at Sandown (r4). How are they going to beat Refute?

[Duritz]

I have quicky rated and priced the race and will be betting the overs on these prices

race 4 3.20
seln mgn price name
2 0.0 $3.1 REFUTE
1 0.7 $4.4 PORTO DOURO
6 1.7 $8.5 EDDY AND DPOSTMA
7 2.4 $17.7 GUNTRAM
3 3.5 $62.7 WINKLER
4 3.7 $76.1 BOLD BARD
10 3.8 $80.9 BREAK THE BANK
11 3.8 $81.8 DISTRACTION

[Duritz]

LOL just checked the odds - refute may be hard to beat but i won't be taking the 1.57 on betfair!!

[Sportz]

How are they going to beat Refute?

They aint.

[Sportz]

i won't be taking the 1.57 on betfair!!

Good value compared to $1.40 on the TAB.

[Duritz]

aah well, did my dough. I'll post my thoughts race 5 shortly if you want to see them, and feel free of course to post your own.

[Sportz]

What did you back? I thought Refute was basically a certainty, but too short to back. I just had a bet on Porto Douro for a place.

[Duritz]

In an even race...

race 5 3.57
seln mgn price name
1 0.0 $5.3 DANES JESTER
3 0.2 $5.9 SMART YOUNG LADY
2 0.9 $8.8 SHE LAGO
10 1.0 $9.1 BELLA COUREUSE
7 1.2 $10.5 ODA
12 1.7 $15.2 CLASSIC BLOOM
11 2.4 $31.2 DANISH PRINCESS
8 3.0 $66.3 MOSSTARA

[TheAvenger]

Tony Brassel has 1-3-10. I like 1 with 2, 3,5, 6,10,11. (quinella)

Regards,

Glenn

[Sportz]

I thought 1, 2 or 3 would win, but I didn't like the race so I didn't bet.

[Duritz]

In the one before I backed poto duoro, and in that one was on oda and the toppy.

[TheAvenger]

One can see why I make few public picks.


Glenn

[Duritz]

never mind Glenn - all punters are frequently wrong!! I have bet in two races today and been wrong each time!

onto the next!!

[Sportz]

Yeah, my tips aren't going very well either.

Duritz, I take it you only bet for the win? Oda paid well for the place.

[Duritz]

Correct - win only. I know the arguments for and against, it's a personal preference. Here's what I like in the next.

race 6 4.37
seln mgn price name
10 0.0 $7.9 KADESA
7 0.3 $9.2 DELICATA
2 0.6 $10.5 ALL ELEGANCE
9 0.7 $11.0 COUNTRY JOY
8 0.7 $11.2 REFACE
5 0.7 $11.3 SONARCHI
6 1.0 $13.8 ARRIERE
11 1.1 $14.5 ALL CHARISMA

I backed Kadesa when it fell in first up, I think the trainer is an ABSOLUTE genius, however it's too short today. It's first up win was moderate only. This is an even race, not even because it's competitive, even because they are a moderate lot, all of about the same ability. This is a race to not back anything if it's not 10's or longer in my own. However, if Kadesa has a future it has to beat them. They are average, any horse going anywhere would beat this lot.

[Duritz]

My idiocy knows no bounds. Here I was, looking at the form for the race after, I had backed All Elegance but I had not as yet backed Delicata, and I look across and they're about to jump! Quickly, hastily do I try to back Delicata, it being a juicy overlay, but the race was closed.... I cannot believe that.

[Sportz]

Bad luck mate.

I missed the race too, but that's because I was busy concentrating on Ipswich R6 where I did very well. :D

By the way, I actually picked the first 4 in my 6 picks on this forum, but didn't put one on. It jackpotted!!!

[Duritz]

Ooh that hurts - however it shouldn't hurt if you don't take them usually. If they are your regular bet though and you didn't take one just on this occasion, then that hurts. I know what hurting feels like, I am hurting right now. Of course Delicata would keep kicking on!

[Duritz]

OK well we need the winner of the last now to assuage my pain!!! Here's my ratings. Davidoff is VERY well in at the weights....

race 7 5.17
seln mgn price name
1 0.0 $2.9 DAVIDOFF
8 1.1 $5.4 JOSE AMIGO
5 1.9 $9.7 WHOS IN CHARGE
7 2.5 $21.2 PERODAN
4 2.8 $26.3 BENEVOLE
3 3.0 $37.4 PARTY PIE
11 3.3 $48.7 BETA PLUS
9 4.0 $90.9 BEERBOHM TREE

[Duritz]

Jesus! Just looked at the odds, I knew Party Pie would be right in the market but not $1.80!!! I have rated him such long odds because I think he MAY be a wet tracker...... We'll soon know! I'll either be a hero or a moron on this race!

Duritz

PS - I am already a moron after the Delicata incident....

Anyway if I get beat, never mind, I am about to start the form for Happy Valley tonight!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Sportz]

Ooh that hurts - however it shouldn't hurt if you don't take them usually. If they are your regular bet though and you didn't take one just on this occasion, then that hurts. I know what hurting feels like, I am hurting right now. Of course Delicata would keep kicking on!

Bad luck on Delicata. That's one of those terrible moments when you listen to the whole race knowing exactly which damn horse is going to win!!!

No, I don't feel that bad because I rarely take first 4s and I got the trifecta which paid very nicely for a half. It would have been great to scoop the first 4 pool though. The jackpot was about $10000.

[Sportz]

You don't like Party Pie at all in the last???

[Duritz]

Party Pie is a nice horse but as I said I think he is a wet tracker. The race has just run, he was a little unlucky but the winner ( who I backed, thank God I get something out of the day after the Delicata debacle) was holding it and probably pulling away on the line.

[Sportz]

Yeah I backed Jose Amigo too. I had both of them actually, but Jose Amigo was a better result for me. Funny thing is I would have definitely had a bigger bet on him if Oliver had been riding, but undoubtedly the price would have been shorter.

[Duritz]

Well the form at Sandown went well. Just looking back at the ratings the four winners were top,third,second and second picks, and they paid (roughly) 1.50-5.50-17 and 10. I don't know what the last running double paid but it would have been nice. I always take a Quaddie too, but I didn't do the first leg because of my hangover (race 3) and only did the other ones in the run but I think I might have missed something nice there. Looking at the first leg, the winner would've been either my top or 2nd rater, it paid 4.20 quaddie paid 700.

On to happy valley!!!!!!