BROWNLOW BETTING

[rabbitz]

Away from Chris Judd $9
Nick Riewoldt $13
There is some value early
Gary Ablett jnr $61
good enough for a tenner
Cheers

[Sportz]

Rabbitz,

In conjunction with our tipping comps this year, we'll all have to have a few futures picks before week 1 of the comps and see how we go.

[discipline pays]

Betting on brownlow pre season is like picking melbourne cup winner in December !! Best to wait till September next year and still get around $6 on main chances, that way you are only betting on eligible players.

[moeee]

Never seen your stuff,discipline pays,but if you can keep preaching like that and live up to your name,I'll be having a few bets on your advice.
Keep on posting.

[discipline pays]

thanks moeee nice to get some positive feedback. hope to live up to my name and return consistent profit.

surely brownlow betting is fraught with danger. i would love to see results over last 5 years re preseason markets compared to end of home away . apart from bucley ( and you would need to divide divvy by 3 ) and maybe judd last year how much has been p***** up against the wall on favourites too early. remember last year a big go for hird early season was gone a long way from home and tredrea was surely a good thing beaten. the romatic notion of snagging a 150-1 winner is outweighed by fact that 150s is sometimes gross UNDERS, gary ablett is a very good young player but is too short, to give an example

[Sportz]

Yeah, I think you're right there, but with the tipping comp, it'll be purely play money we're betting with. I wouldn't really advise anyone bet on the Brownlow pre-season. So many players get knocked out of contention through injury and suspension and you can usually still get quite good odds on the day of the count.

[rabbitz]

Yeah, I think you're right there, but with the tipping comp, it'll be purely play money we're betting with. I wouldn't really advise anyone bet on the Brownlow pre-season. So many players get knocked out of contention through injury and suspension and you can usually still get quite good odds on the day of the count.


I didnt realise there were so many conservatchickens on this forum
$61 @ $5=$305
Not a big deal surely

[Sportz]

Been burnt a few times before Rabbitz. That's all.

Good luck with YOUR bet though and you're right, it is only $5 so no harm done.

[discipline pays]

yeah i agree that $5 is nothing, if ablett has a good year and starts at 20s on night you can tell everyone that you backed him at huge price. everyone will think you are a genius !!!


a bit of fun for $5.

like the guy i know who had $50 on brad hardie at 50s when he won, he still tells anyone who will listen the story .

[haveadip]

There is alot more value in the Brownlow medal than G.Ablett Jnr surely, keep the $5. Has there been a player in the last 5 years that has won from over 100/1 pre season. Also some of the odds seem very very strange when you compare 2 players. For example Tex Walker is at 301/1 while Scott Thompson is at 1001/1. Surely you could put half the players at 1000/1 As most wont get over 5 votes let alone win the thing.

[discipline pays]

couldnt agree more. i will never forget the day i was in tab and jarrod molloy came in and his mate looked him up in brownlow betting, he was 501 - 1 and molloy told his mate he was unders !!!

on that note i will throw in my tip for the record.... history tells us that the player will need to be an onballer in a side that will play in finals... someone who likes to carry footy... and kick goals ( think aker and judd ) maybe paul hasleby at 50s

[rabbitz]

yeah i agree that $5 is nothing, if ablett has a good year and starts at 20s on night you can tell everyone that you backed him at huge price. everyone will think you are a genius !!!


a bit of fun for $5.

like the guy i know who had $50 on brad hardie at 50s when he won, he still tells anyone who will listen the story .
Discipline I know you are new here but everyone thinks I'm a genius already just ask sportz or moeee

[discipline pays]

And modest ???

[moeee]

For example Tex Walker is at 301/1 while Scott Thompson is at 1001/1.

Don't know much,but surely there ain't a footy player called Tex Walker.
Not thinking Tristen Walker?.

[moeee]

maybe paul hasleby at 50s

Concerned that he ain't sexy enough to turn on the white maggots.
Had a good look at last years stats and Adam Simpson got nowhere after a great year and the bookies were very happy to take your money.
Fraser Gehrig also had a great start but bookies lapped up anything he had to offer.
There is no greater guide than the markets.

[haveadip]

Don't know much,but surely there ain't a footy player called Tex Walker.
Not thinking Tristen Walker?.You would be correct Mr Einstein

[moeee]

At about Round 12,you could have got $12 about JUDDY.
And Mark Riccuitto was around the $7 mark.Which concerns me because the Crows had only won 3 out of 12 matches to that stage.
You'ld think the 3 points had to go to the player of the winning team.

[Sportz]

Unfortunately that's not the case with AFL. Far too often 3 points goes to someone on the losing side who plays a lone hand. Western Bulldogs didn't exactly win a stack of games and Scott West got 23 points, didn't he? Ridiculous.

[moeee]

23 points?
Well if you say it,it must be true.
Been through the first 12 rounds of results and can't see Scott West anywhere!
But I did see James Hird and Nick Riewoldt as being way over-rated up to round 12.

[Sportz]

Didn't he??? Didn't Scott West get 23 points??? Maybe my mind's going.

[Sportz]

Yep. My mind's going. :o

Sorry Mo, he didn't get 23 points. Don't know why I thought that. He DID get 20 points though and finished equal 4th which is pretty amazing considering the Bulldogs' season.

[moeee]

Well even 20 has me in a state of disbelief.
But he certainly has a knack of picking up Brownlow votes.
I'm having thoughts on backing the lazy 5 bucks on JONATHON BROWN this year.
Much more value than young Gary Ablett anyway!

[Sportz]

Brown??? Have you lost your mind?

[moeee]

Man mountain.Got about 9 votes last year.Missed a few games.
Just thinking back how Tony Lockett got a Brownlow once.
Major concern is the possibility of suspension.

That Brownlow tipping comp you envisage could possibly run the whole season with entrants tipping 3,2,1 round by round.
Late starters can always join in any time.
Don't know how many users can stay the distance though.
Still,something to consider.

[moeee]

Lenny Hayes.
Was ineligible last year.
Anyone recall why?

[Sportz]

He was suspended for striking Tim Notting in the 1 point win over Brisbane in Rd 6.

[haveadip]

Im sure Browns out for the first 6 games at least. Which would explain why you would think those odds are high. Personally I wouldnt touch him at a million to one, very overated.

[moeee]

Thanks Sportz.

Found 2 more.
Nathan Buckley and Peter Everitt.

[Sportz]

Im sure Browns out for the first 6 games at least. Which would explain why you would think those odds are high. Personally I wouldnt touch him at a million to one, very overated.

Yeah, not sure about 6 games, but he's certainly going to miss some and the chances of him going through a season not being suspended aren't great. That's why I asked Mo if he was out of his mind. I don't think he's over-rated as far as his general play is concerned. I just think he's far too much of a hot head and he can't kick for goals. There were a few occasions in the Grand Final when he took a brilliant mark and as a Lions fan, I wasn't at all excited because I knew exactly what would happen when he shot for goal.

[moeee]

Hi Sportz.
Wasn't really big into footy last year.
More that the result was my interest.
But now I am into rating players I have much more knowledge and didn't realize that Brown stuffed up during the Grand Final.

[Floydyboy]

Firstly I dont Know enough about AFL to be making predictions on players winning brownlows However from what I seen last season I donthink young Ablett would be such a bad bet are there any odds available at the moment

[Sportz]

Yep. I think he was about $67 on Sportodds when I looked.

Are you gonna stick around for our Footy tipping comps this year Floydy?

[Floydyboy]

Yep Sportz that sounds like a good idea is that afl or nrl or both.....................

[Sportz]

We'll have different comps for AFL, NRL and Super12.

[moeee]

Bit early,but is the rules set in concrete or can we have a discussion over how it will be.
Also think we need a Brownlow tipping thread or comp.

[Sportz]

Yeah, it is a bit early Mo. No the rules aren't set in concrete so we can discuss it.

Basically, this is what I'm looking at doing though. We'll run it like a tipping comp, but instead of just getting points for correct tips, we'll earn 'money' based on the divs our selections return. We'll tip in every game, using probably margin bets (or maybe line bets) and there'll also be one big game each week where we do something special (total points, exact margin, most goals, most possessions, first tryscorer etc). I think we'll also have one multi bet each week.

I was also planning on doing something with futures bets in the week leading up to the first game in each comp. In that week, we could all pick out our 'bets' for the premiers, finalists, wooden spoon, brownlow medal etc.

Still open to suggestions on all these ideas. Have to work it out in time for the start of Super12 in a few weeks.

[haveadip]

I'll be sticking around during the footy season so will be in. Hopefully we can get good numbers to make the competition more interesting.

[moeee]

Basically, this is what I'm looking at doing though. We'll run it like a tipping comp, but instead of just getting points for correct tips, we'll earn 'money' based on the divs our selections return. We'll tip in every game,

I wonder if we could perhaps only tip in 4 of our favourite games rather than all 8.

[Floydyboy]

Ill be taking the 1.50 roll your own option this year with no more than treble bets.

[moeee]

So what are you saying Floydy,1.5 X 1.5 X 1.5 = $3.375?

Looks good to me.
Sometimes people say,yeah but what if 2 get up and you miss the 3rd,you get nothing.
Well at them straight out prices,2 winners and a loser only gets you square anyway!

[knowledge]

when does wizard cup start and will u be betting on it

[Sportz]

when does wizard cup start and will u be betting on it

About a month's time. No, that won't be in the comp.

[Floydyboy]

yeah thats what I mean .............Ive started getting used to the short prices in the soccer and Im doin alright takin doubles and trebles no more

[moeee]

What I usually do,Floydyboy,is assess what price those $1.50 shots would be if I was a bookmaker.
So maybe I think they should be $1.20
Then I multiply the $1.20 or $1.15 or whatever till it comes up to around the $3 price and that's how many I include in my Multi.

So if I reckon the games are an even money chance,I would not think about taking more than a double.

[Floydyboy]

well my way is to get all the teams, wind em down to a set price eg 1.50 then run through em an see what stands out

[moeee]

Beautiful Floydy.
You just reminded me what worked for me last year.
In fact I wound them down to $1.44 I think.Or was it $1.28?

Whatever it was,thanks.
(Could have been $1.32).Better check my records.

[Floydyboy]

Onya moeee ........glad to be some help

[jaffa39]

$61 Gary Ablett poor value,

As a 20 yrs involved with bookies and one of the first market framers for sport odds on the gold coast bookies love the small punter being sucked in to false odds at season start.

Ablett is too small and not a dominant player in various areas of the ground.
He mainly plays as a forward and if Geelong collapse as is expected by some bookies he won't kick 60 odd goals for small forward to be noticed.

Judge.Buckley, Voss, Hird and Ruschuto play on the ball all over the field or in the centre.

Wish i could get punters to give me $5 like that.

Jaffa

[BJ]

I would prefer to put my money on :
R Harvey @125-1
M Voss @ 50-1
A Goodes@ 80-1
L Hayes @ 65-1

Surely these would be better opportunities than Ablett... They are all dominant players who are proved to be noticed by the umpires. And they are all fair players, that have a slim chance of being suspended.

My personal pick would be Riewoldt @ 14-1. He is a player that can run anyone off their legs, outmark anybody and dominate a game on his day. In saying that, so is Goodes, so I would consider him a better betting prospect at long odds...