Filante
14th January 2005, 08:41 PM
Tomorrow looks a horrible day for punting across all states.
Most of my money is going to be on Morphettville Race 6 No.1 Almost Never in an open handicap over 2,024m.
Almost Never and 2. Lawson's Storm have a distinct class advantage over the rest of the field being the only black-type winners in the race. This class advantage is reflected in the weights as Almost Never carries 58kgs, Lawson's Storm 57kgs, and the rest of the field 52kgs.
Last start Almost Never beat Lawson's Storm by over a length at Morphettville over 1800m. He rises 1.5kgs for that victory, but he has several factors in his favour.
First, Almost Never has a fantastic strike rate of 7 wins from 18 starts, compared to Lawson's Storm's 5 wins from 32 starts.
Second, Almost Never beat Lawson's Storm last start despite being only second up after a short let up, whereas Lawson's Storm was having his seventh run in. Almost Never will have benefited from the run and be even fitter.
Third, Almost Never has won 2 of 3 third up runs.
Fourth, the distance rise will suit as Almost Never who has won up to 2400m.
Fifth, Jason Holder - who has been on Almost Never for all of his seven wins - keeps the ride.
Finally, Almost Never will be in front of Lawson's Storm in the run. This is important because, it would appear, there is little pace in the race. I would expect 9. Starbucks to lead from 11. Street Parlour and 6. None for the Road, but none of those horses is known to set a fast tempo. Almost Never will sit about midfield and Lawson's Storm will probably be giving him around 1.5 to 2 lengths at the top of the straight. That gap is likely to prove significant in a moderately run race.
Almost Never has everything in his favour tomorrow and I expect him to win.
Cheers,
F
Most of my money is going to be on Morphettville Race 6 No.1 Almost Never in an open handicap over 2,024m.
Almost Never and 2. Lawson's Storm have a distinct class advantage over the rest of the field being the only black-type winners in the race. This class advantage is reflected in the weights as Almost Never carries 58kgs, Lawson's Storm 57kgs, and the rest of the field 52kgs.
Last start Almost Never beat Lawson's Storm by over a length at Morphettville over 1800m. He rises 1.5kgs for that victory, but he has several factors in his favour.
First, Almost Never has a fantastic strike rate of 7 wins from 18 starts, compared to Lawson's Storm's 5 wins from 32 starts.
Second, Almost Never beat Lawson's Storm last start despite being only second up after a short let up, whereas Lawson's Storm was having his seventh run in. Almost Never will have benefited from the run and be even fitter.
Third, Almost Never has won 2 of 3 third up runs.
Fourth, the distance rise will suit as Almost Never who has won up to 2400m.
Fifth, Jason Holder - who has been on Almost Never for all of his seven wins - keeps the ride.
Finally, Almost Never will be in front of Lawson's Storm in the run. This is important because, it would appear, there is little pace in the race. I would expect 9. Starbucks to lead from 11. Street Parlour and 6. None for the Road, but none of those horses is known to set a fast tempo. Almost Never will sit about midfield and Lawson's Storm will probably be giving him around 1.5 to 2 lengths at the top of the straight. That gap is likely to prove significant in a moderately run race.
Almost Never has everything in his favour tomorrow and I expect him to win.
Cheers,
F