Stats. on Favorite in the Lucky Last

[Bhagwan]

The famous get out bet on the lucky last.
The stats. show over a 2 year period the last race no matter where it is in Aust. has averaged a 29.1% win (which is the average,)& a amazing -3.4% loss on turnover. This would have to be the lowest loss incurred if level stakes betting on favs. The average loss is usually -20% on turnover.

Maybe someone clever out there could divise a cunning plan out of this stat. to make us all rich so we dont have to go to work anymore & it should allow us all, plenty of time, to race our Porches against one another .

[Privateer]

Bhagwan

I think you might find that 29% is actually a little below the average for faves.

[Placegetter]

My own feeling is that the stats on the last race at a meeting might be a little warped by the presence of "false" favourites or whatever you may choose to call them.

Perfect example, Pelt ran favourite yesterday at BR8, while Out Break (a kilo worse) and Zuka (no weight differential) both beat it two weeks ago and were competing in the race yesterday.

A case can be made for the alley they were coming from, but Outbreak was sent out at $11.10 the win having beaten Pelt ($4.80) by 3.5 lengths a fortnight before and racing over the same distance again.

I'm loathe to consider stats on favourites in the last, unless they are the SP favourites, which gives you The Expat for the race discussed. Notch that one up as a win for the favourite.

Comments welcomed.

[Privateer]

I tend to think that favourites are favourites irrespective of whether it's the 1st or last race. Simply analysing the stats of last race favourites and hoping to devise something useful from that to use as part of a punting armoury is fanciful.

The comment by Placegetter regarding false favourites has merit though. All the desperates put whatever they have left on a shorter priced horse causing it to shorten into favouritism. Often the horse ends up at odds well under its real value and runs accordingly.

Result: another win to the bookies and TAB.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Privateer on 2002-04-28 17:34 ]</font>

[Placegetter]

One more thing.

Pelt was a "100 pointer". We have discussed the use of these horses previously.

Here's a question we'll never know the answer to? Would Pelt have been so short if

a) it wasn't a 100 pointer?
b) it wasn't the last race at the track?

[Mr. Logic]

Result: another win to the bookies and TAB.

Privateer, I don't think the TAB cares what horse wins the race, favourite or roughies. The TAB wins every race. That means punters as a group lose every race on the TAB.
Interesting thought - Does that mean punters as a group never get it right on the TAB?

[supersoul]

On 2002-04-29 20:28, Mr. Logic wrote:
Interesting thought - Does that mean punters as a group never get it right on the TAB?


Last race SR8 trifecta for $40, using my fav neural settings and ignoring the tote fav, brought me 50% at $1207.65.

But I was going it all day and was about $240 down for the day at the time...

I think if you do not panic, and stick to your plan- well, it worked for me!