The Kelly Method

[Benny]

I have heard a lot about the Kelly method. Can one use the Kelly method in all sports like soccer? And what about using it on the races. How does one go about it?

Benny

[Mr J]

The Kelly Criterion is a method used to find the optimal stake for an investment. Ie highest stake before you are overbetting (which ultimately leads to financial ruin).

The formula is winning%-losing%/payout

E.g. if the predicted winning % is 55% and the price is $1.91, then it's 0.55-0.45/.91= 5.5%

It's a very aggressive staking strategy where bets need to be resized after each bet. You also need to know precisely what your advantage is. Most people who use this method bet a fraction of it, over 1/4 or less.

I suggest you don't use it for a number of reasons.