SUNLINE

[Mark]

Mr Magic
Funny you should use the example of Sunline as a favourite to back. I rest my case. Horses are not machines and all are capable of winning, or getting beaten as favourites on any given day. I'll stick with what I'm doing.

[mr magic]

Mark,
You missed my point so I'll type a bit slower for you. My example was a hypothetical one - a champion against a field of dogs. Group One sprints do not contain dogs. Your assertion that you don't back favourites unless they are longished priced ones in feature handicaps is a broad brush attitude which will result in you missing heaps of good overlays.
Here's another example .... 6/4 offered on the toss of a coin. Not 4/1 so you stay out. Make sense of that.

[Mark]

Mr Magic
Type as slow as you like, I have won at the last 7 Saturdays in a row. I don't do any form & I definately don't back favourites, make of that what you will.
If you're offered 6/4 on the toss of a coin, take it, because it's not the favourite. In a 2 horse race where one is 6/4 then the alternative would be around 4/7, and we're not betting on coins are we.

[mr magic]

7 winning Saturday's in a row without doing the form means one thing - SYSTEM ON LUCKY STREAK.
Next thing you'll have an ad in The Sportsman. (The Sportsman is a form guide - I'm sure your not familiar with it).
If you want to win long term read a Don Scott book and put in the hours - it's the only way.

[michael]

Dear Mark and Mr Magic

I kinda think you both could be right.

Here are only my thoughts and reason for saying this.

In any race the favourite demands alot of attention it would be quite logical to look for races that favourites are more than beatable. Pot the favourite or back the favourite. As long as you take a consistent approach.

I've got a good mate who is a genius at potting favourites. He is always saying things like "False favourites are always being created by media hype." or "Trainers are good at telling you how there horse is going but few do the form on the whole field." I had to laugh on Friday I heard an interview with Gay Waterhouse on radio. I can't recall the race but she had two horses running in one race. She had me convinced it was going to be a dead heat and that both would win.

Good Luck and Good Punting

Michael

[Mark]

Mr Magic
A bit touchy aren't we, jealous of my success perhaps?
How far back would you like me to go?
How about 78 of the last 100 race meetings that I've been to?
Re The Sportsman, I've probably thrown out more Sportman's than you've ever bought.
Re Don Scott, I have his books, I used them for many years with some succes, but nothing like what I am now enjoying. Started off in 1980 with a complex card system which I regularly updated, and used for around 15 years. Whilst I did have some great results, the hours of work I put in were not worth the returns.
Go back over the results of Sydney & Melbourne races with up to 12 runners, collate how many favourites have been beaten, how many winners thet have been 6/1 or better & then add up the place % of these races, especially Sydney.
So long as you show a profit over a period of time, who cares how you get there. If you do the form & win, then that's great, I couldn't do it, BUT don't run down what I do just because I don't spend hours studying. Look at who wins in the long run, it's generally the bookies, and a great percentage of the ones that stop fielding (like myself!) do so because of the expenses involved & not because they are losing. I say good luck to anyone who can win long term, no matter how they do it.
ps I did have to put in many weeks of studying past results to come up with what had been staring me and all punters in the face.

[mr magic]

Mark,
I apologise for being smart in recent posts, you are obviously not the fool I took you for and you enjoy success (as I do @ 50 hours per week however).
The problem is I can't get my head around how someone can be successful by brushing favourites indiscriminately. I'll give an example;
There is a field of 8. Favourite is 1/1 then the rest are 4/1, 8/1, 8/1, 10/1, 12/1, 12/1, 25/1; around 120%. Historically an evens favourite will will about 40% of races. Backing the rest of the field in a dutch book fashion would cost 70 units and return 60 based on this portion of the field winning 60% of races. Even if you obtain top fluctuations you would be flat out breaking even.
I rated Sunline 7/4 on Saturday and would have backed her at 2's although that was never likely. Some would argue that she doesn't win whether she starts at 2/1 or 20/1 for that matter. However that is one race on one day - it's a bigger picture than that. My belief is that if you bet on a good selection at odds above its chance of winning your work is done - the result is in the lap of the gods. Individual wins/losses are of little concern as you know that in the long run ( and for me that is about 1000 bets per year) the profits are almost guaranteed.
Cheers.

[Mark]

Mr Magic
Your example is a race where I wouldn't bet. Fortunately the reality is that many races, again especially Sydney, get down to as low as 95%. Most average around 102 to 105%, BUT it's the place part of the bet where I make my money. Consider this; 6/4, 4/1, 6/1, 8/1, 14/1, 20/1, 50/1, 50/1, 100/1, & 100/1. 103% the win, but around 259% the place, that's some advantage when they need a book of 300% the place to break even. Take out the favourite & you've got 63% & 186%, take out the 4/1 pick & you're left with 43% & 136%. Something to think about there. How about this, 6/4, 6/4, 10/1, 10/1, 50/1, 50/1, 100/1 & 100/1. 104% the win & 227% the place. Leave out the fav's & you have 24% the win & 81% the place. Unfortunately these markets are rare & the bookies, to quote Don Scott "raise the white flag & bet win only". Ever wondered why they bet win only when there's an odds on fav?, it's because their place % has been destroyed.
Something I forgot to mention is that I did place an ad many months ago. Most people that contacted me wanted tips or were hoping for a get rich quick scheme. One bloke even said it wouldn't work, well I'm still going, and love track bias & the unpredictability of the Randwick goat track. Don't get me wrong, I work hard at the track, adding up prices as they fluctuate, and at first it was hard backing something at say 6/1 that I would have rated 100/1, or leaving out the 7/4 shot that I thought should have been evens, but you get used to it. The only thing for me that comes close to doing the form is that when I come across a horse that I think shouldn't fav then I have more on the others. Who knows, our discussion may help others in their quest for value, because that's what it's about.
Good Punting