Weight Changes

[Shaun]

Can some one tell me the stats for horses dropping in weight 5kg or more from thier last start to thier next race.....but they must have had atleast one run from a spell.

[Duritz]

not I but by replying the post will shoot up the ranks!!!

[KennyVictor]

It's an old trick Duritz but it might just work.

Shaun, only got figures for West Australia if it helps.
These figures are for horses running in last 42 days, down 5Kg in handicapped weight (no allowances for apprentices) and for Belmont and Ascot (could give other minor tracks but found a lot of hiweight races were stuffing up the figures). Races since 1997 and SP prices for winners.

bets: 838, returned $588, 79 winners, ROI 70%

horses running in the last 14 days
bets: 627, returned $473, 65 winners, ROI 75.5%

horses going UP 5Kg, run in last 42 days
bets: 541, returned $323, 65 winners, ROI 60%

Doesn't look very promising A?

KV

[Shaun]

ok that confused me...you said
bets: 838, returned $588, 79 winners, ROI 70%
bets: 627, returned $473, 65 winners, ROI 75.5%

is that profit or loss...looks like a loss to me....
i have never really looked in to this but have used it some times for huge winners....i think it works best if the horses were say with in 3 lengths last start

[Duritz]

Wow that's unbelievable. My first thoughts are that weight drop doesn't compensate for what must be a steep rise in class to drop that much in weight. Also, if a horse drops from 57 say in a c1 to 52 in the city, he is dropping 5kg sure, however he is on the limit and the handicapper may have wanted to drop him more but could not. A few of the horses in that sample no doubt would have been the type you see down the bottom in listed races and WFA races, you know they're outclassed, but they can't be given less weight.

Duritz.

[KennyVictor]

$588 returned from 838 1 dollar bets.
588/838x100 = 70% Return on Investment. Maybe ROI is used wrong here, I'm not an accountant I'm afraid. It's a loss though.

Not really surprising, if we just had to pick up the paper and see which horses were going down in weight 5 Kilos from their last run it would take a lot of the fun out of the punt.

Horses 3 or less lengths from winner last start within 42 days
521 Bets, returned $366, 59 winners, 70% ROI

If you want to check a few recent ones to make sure I'm doing it right:

Call me Henry 15/1/5 54Kg came 7th
26/12/4 60Kg 2.7L off winner

Hotel Casuarina 15/1/5 52.5Kg came 4th
8/1/5 58Kg 3.0L off winner

Rebotto 8/1/5 52.5Kg came 4th
26/12/4 58Kg 2.5L off winner

Recent winners under the system
Impressive stats - Ascot 20/11/04
Constantinople - 28/8/4 Belmont
Stockies Yarn - 18/9/4 Belmont

Sorry I can't give you any better news.

KV