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Sportz
25th January 2005, 03:53 PM
Michael,

While I was looking at those beaten favs from Barrier 1, I decided to play around with a few different rules. I implemented some ideas that I've been using on and off over the years and I decided to concentrate only on horses from Barrier 1 in races with 12 or more starters. The more starters the bigger advantage you would think for the inside barrier. Anyway, this is what I've come up with. These results are only from the start of December (when you started looking at the beaten favs), so I don't know about the prospects long term, but there could be some chance of success. If not, you guys can play around with them and see what you can come up with. Systems 1 & 4 should both be fairly reliable, Systems 3 a bit less so, and System 2 is a bit more hit and miss. System 2 is a genuine longshot system and as such I think the losing runs could be quite long, but the winning divs can be very nice.

Firstly, here are the basic rules:
(1) Races of 1200m or longer. No 2yo or jumps races.
(2) At least 12 starters.
(3) Consider only the horse starting from Barrier 1.
(4) At least 3 career starts and at least 2 starts since a spell.
(5a) For races of 1200-1600m: Last start within the last 24 days.
Must not be going up in distance by more than 300m or going down by more than 150m.
(5b) For races longer than 1600m: Last start within the last 17 days.
Must not be going up in distance by more than 500m or going down by more than 250m.

After using those basic rules, you now apply the following systems:

System 1
(1) Consider only Tab no.1.
(2) Must be a last start beaten favourite (b) or a winner at this track over this distance (c).

System 2
(1) Must be at least $11.00 in pre-post betting.
(2) Must be a last start beaten favourite (b) or a winner at this track over this distance (c).

System 3
(1) Must have had at least 4 starts since a spell.
(2) Must have finished in the first 4 at each of it's last 4 starts.

System 4
(1) Must have had at least 4 starts since a spell.
(2) Must have finished in the first 4 at each of it's last 4 starts.
(3) Must be a last start beaten favourite (b) or a winner at this track over this distance (c).

Results since Dec1:
System 1
Selections 8, Wins 4, Placings 6, Win profit 187.5%, Place profit 48.7%

System 2
Selections 23, Wins 5, Placings 9, Win profit 315.7%, Place profit 44.8%

System 3
Selections 26, Wins 10, Placings 15, Win profit 159.2%, Place profit 31.5%

System 4
Selections 5, Wins 4, Placings 5, Win profit 146%, Place profit 80%

michaelg
25th January 2005, 05:01 PM
Hi, Sportz.

A total of 62 races for a brilliant profit - terrific!

I'll have a look at the system(s) for tomorrow's racing and, time permitting, I'll list the selections here. However, I can only determine the fave by the pre-post market, and with fields of twelve-plus the pre-post is seldom the fave. But it's truly worth checking.

Sportz
25th January 2005, 05:07 PM
However, I can only determine the fave by the pre-post market, and with fields of twelve-plus the pre-post is seldom the fave. But it's truly worth checking.

I'm not looking for the favourite. Were you perhaps referring to System 1? If so, I'm actually looking simply for horse number 1, not the favourite.

michaelg
25th January 2005, 05:21 PM
Sorry about that. Yes, I had the previous system in mind.

Sportz
25th January 2005, 05:41 PM
Don't expect miracles with these. It's only based on about 8 weeks results, but they do show some promise.

Merriguy
25th January 2005, 06:10 PM
They sure do look promising, Sportz :) I must admit that some of your Barrier 1 schemes have me worried; but let's see what happens.

Are these every day results or only metro Sat and Wed??

Sportz
25th January 2005, 06:17 PM
It's every day. System 2 which is the longshot system has actually produced better results on Saturday/Public Holiday meetings, but the other 3 systems all show equally good results on all days.

Jimmy
25th January 2005, 08:41 PM
Guys appreciate your work,

Sportz to clarify System 2, less than 11.00 or 11.00 plus prepost? Courier Mail prepost I presume as well?

Again thanks from one of the one's that does not say to much but appreciates everyone's insights.

Sportz
25th January 2005, 09:07 PM
$11.00 or longer. It's a longshot system and we're hoping to nab a few nice priced winners.

The winners during the test period were:
Dec11 Ascot 3-14 Just A Kiseki $5.40
Dec18 Doom 8-13 Proudly Agro $14.30
Dec26 SCst 7-7 Thunderclouds $17.90
Jan 8 GCst 5-9 Tippitaka $12.90
Jan 8 GCst 9-7 Ceffyl $45.10

I liked that last one.

As for which pre-post odds to use, that's a tricky one. I guess it's okay to use any paper. I don't always use the Courier Mail these days. Most weekdays I use the WA Tabform website. Most of the time, they're pretty much the same.

jose
25th January 2005, 10:13 PM
Yo Fellas, I have got about a years old formguides at hand so time permitting I shall have a bit of a look to see if it stands up over a bit longer period.
This has got to be one of the best hobbies i know of.
Luv it, luv it, luv it.

Sportz
26th January 2005, 10:21 AM
I don't have the Perth scratchings yet, but at this stage, it appears there's one selection:

Caul R7-5 Trick Or Treating (System 3)

Hope that Wagga 6-10 Walk The Jeuney doesn't win at big odds. It's ruled out by the distance restriction. (coming back from 1600-1200m)

michaelg
26th January 2005, 11:35 AM
Sportz, I agree with your selection.

I think Murray Bridge R4 no.15 and R7 no.7 would have been selections for system 2 but are less than $11 pre-post.

Sportz
26th January 2005, 11:46 AM
Yep. Sydney 5-5 as well. All 3 of those are each-way chances too, but as far as the system goes, we'll stick with the rules as they are.

Merriguy
26th January 2005, 12:05 PM
Thanks for the response to my question of yesterday, Sportz. Appreciasted :)

michaelg
26th January 2005, 01:00 PM
I noticed SR5 no.5 but forgot to include it.

I thought it would take ages to determine the selections but once you get accoustomed to it, it's quite easy.

Sportz
26th January 2005, 01:34 PM
Well, there aren't a huge number of races with 12+ starters. And besides, you don't have to worry about working out Basic Rule 5a or 5b until after you've seen if there are any qualifiers for each system.

Sportz
26th January 2005, 04:33 PM
Hmmm, not a good start.

michaelg
27th January 2005, 11:04 AM
Sportz, I don't think there are any selections today.

Sportz
27th January 2005, 11:27 AM
No, you're right. Over the test period, it averaged out at just over 1 bet a day. There were several days with no selections.

michaelg
28th January 2005, 12:06 PM
I think there is one selection today:

Sandown R7 no.11 - Mitzy's Edge, for system 2

Sportz
28th January 2005, 12:28 PM
Yes, that's right. I actually have it as one of my blackbook runners for today too. But none of the tipsters give it a hope, so who knows? I'll probably be backing Umaforce as well as Mitzy's Edge.

Sportz
28th January 2005, 06:43 PM
Almost a GREAT result with Mitzy's Edge. A handy place dividend though.

As for Umaforce..... :(
I backed the winner at it's last start, so I should have backed up again.

michaelg
28th January 2005, 07:36 PM
Sportz, I backed it each way - hope you did too.

Sportz
7th February 2005, 04:09 PM
After a couple of disappointing results last week, there's been 2 handy winners with this method the last couple of days. Box Head Prince yesterday and Elroy today. Box Head Prince was a selection for system 1 & 3, and Elroy was a selection for systems 1, 3 & 4.

michaelg
7th February 2005, 04:28 PM
Hi, Sportz.

I'm back on the net again after 10 days and four visits from technicians. From tomorrow I should be able to list the selections here.

michaelg
8th February 2005, 11:28 AM
No selections today.

michaelg
9th February 2005, 12:04 PM
No selections today - Wednesday 9 Feb.

michaelg
10th February 2005, 11:36 AM
Two selections today:
Gosford R8 no.3 - Bullet Express - systems 3 and 4. Interestingly this is a Lay selection for the Up, Up and Up system.

Ballarat R7 no.10 - Tilly's Wedding - system 2.

Sportz
10th February 2005, 11:45 AM
Hmmm, doesn't make me over confident about Bullet Express then. Tilly's Wedding will be a real outsider. Not expecting too much there.

Sportz
10th February 2005, 05:41 PM
Well, by the looks of it, the Up, Up & Up system's okay, but this one's probably not! :o

michaelg
11th February 2005, 11:32 AM
No selections today - Friday.

Sportz
12th February 2005, 08:13 PM
Lotto Rock a good winner today at $5.40/$2.10 and Lara's Way third at $2.40.

Don't worry about posting selections Michael. It only jinxes them I reckon. People have the rules, so they can work them out if they wish.

michaelg
13th February 2005, 08:24 AM
Hi, Sportz.

I forgot to look at them yesterday. It's only after the race that I realised Lotto Rock was a selection. I hope to continue posting them though.

If any selections today I will list them when available.

michaelg
13th February 2005, 10:57 AM
No selections today - Sunday 13

michaelg
14th February 2005, 11:22 AM
No selctions today - Monday.

Hobart R4 no1 would have been a selection, but its last start was slightly more than 24 days ago.

Sportz
14th February 2005, 05:48 PM
Oh sorry Michael, I should have looked at this post earlier. Unless my brain is playing tricks on me, there were actually two selections today. Hobart R1-1 Irish Grey (Pla $2.00) and Pakenham 9-1 Nothin' Like Mary (Won $2.80/$1.40).

In Hobart R1, I personally preferred numbers 5 & 6, so I decided to back all 3 of them as well as taking quinellas, any2s and trifectas. A good result. I also got the quinella and any2 in the last at Pakenham with number 13.

michaelg
14th February 2005, 07:45 PM
Sportz, you're right- they are both system 1 selections. I mistakenly was looking at the $11 rule of system 2.

Will look more closely now, especially as the system is on fire.

michaelg
15th February 2005, 11:16 AM
Hi, Sportz.

I can't find any selections today.

Sportz
15th February 2005, 12:22 PM
On this occasion, you're totally correct. :)

michaelg
16th February 2005, 12:04 PM
Hi, Sportz.

I don't think there are any selections today.

michaelg
17th February 2005, 11:43 AM
Sportz, I've come up with one selection today:

Port Mac R7 no.8 - Wakomba - system 3

Sportz
17th February 2005, 01:02 PM
Yeah, that's right.

Bit worried now. On a dry track, I think it was a good thing, but the track is slow now and it doesn't have any wet track form.

Sportz
17th February 2005, 04:53 PM
Just as I expected. Disappointing. :o

michaelg
18th February 2005, 10:55 AM
Sportz, I have two selections today:

Quirindi R4 no.2 - Think Zinc (Systems 3 and 4)
Quirindi R8 no.2 - Tara Express (Systems 3 and 4)

Sportz
18th February 2005, 05:40 PM
Quirindi R8 no.2 - Tara Express (Systems 3 and 4)

You beauty!!! :)

Sportz
18th February 2005, 06:00 PM
Well, given the results of the last couple of weeks, I've worked out that my assessment in the initial post on this thread is true. Systems 1 & 4 are definitely the strongest and most reliable. Systems 2 & 3 should probably just be treated as a bonus.

Sportz
18th February 2005, 06:41 PM
Oh no. Michael, I've just realised that I missed one today. By my form guide, Goulburn R7-6 was a selection for system 3 and paid $10.20. Some form guides might have had it as being second up from a spell (perhaps yours did?) but the Courier Mail didn't and that's what I would normally go by. Damn! A good day could have been even better.

michaelg
18th February 2005, 11:14 PM
Yes, Sportz, a very good day with the system, but it would have been even better if the Telegraph hadn't shown it as second-up from a spell.

Still, I suppose I can't complain too much as it was a profitable day.

michaelg
19th February 2005, 11:50 AM
One selection today:

Moonee Valley R7 no.3 - Taken (system 3)

Sportz
19th February 2005, 04:54 PM
Very disappointing.

With these horses which are qualifiers for System 3 but not System 4, I think you should probably look for a bit of value. Might have to take a look at that.

michaelg
20th February 2005, 12:07 PM
Hi, Sportz.

It might be too early to tell. I'm recording the results of all four sytems, so we'll be able to see which ones perform.

No selections today.

zetor
20th February 2005, 12:28 PM
Is race 8 at sun coast n16 instant reward a system 2 selection & also ballina race 6 n12 a system selection.

michaelg
20th February 2005, 12:55 PM
Hi, Zetor.

You're right - Ballina R6 no.14 is a selection. I'll bet it each-way now.

I omitted Sun Coast R8 no.16 because of the price. Had the scratchings been known when the pre-post market was set I think it might have been lower than the required $11. I suppose this is a grey area. Sportz, what do you think?

captain charger
20th February 2005, 04:07 PM
Michaelg,doesn't sys 2 say it must be AT LEAST $11 pre post,the sunday mail (QLD) has it over that,cheers,

Sportz
20th February 2005, 04:14 PM
Yeah, both of those horses are selections today for System 2.

Remember System 2 is purely a longshot system and you shouldn't expect much. If either horse manages a place at long odds it would be good. If one of them wins, it would be incredible!!! In the past, System 2 has performed better on Saturdays.

michaelg
20th February 2005, 05:50 PM
The reason I wasn't sure about the selection was that my pre-post market was reduced by 33% due to the scratchings. Even a 20% reduction to the market would price the selection ($13 pre-post) at less than $11. However, from now I will ignore scratchings so that any horse at $11 pre-post will be a selection.

Sportz, as you say, one good winner/placegetter would be very good..iIt just takes one every so often.

Sportz
20th February 2005, 06:16 PM
Yeah, I don't take any notice of scratchings when it comes to prices.

Sorry about the two flops today. As I said, System 2 is easily the least reliable of the systems, but when a winner comes along, it's liable to be a doozy!!!

By the way, notice anything about the 3rd horse in that Ballina race which paid $8? If we were using the outside barrier instead of the inside, it would have been a selection. If anyone wants to, they can look at how these systems go with the outside barrier instead of the inside. Not sure how they would go. They would probably have lower strike rates, but higher dividends. We won't bother posting those outside barrier selections though.

michaelg
21st February 2005, 11:14 AM
There are no selections today - Monday 21 Feb

michaelg
22nd February 2005, 11:01 AM
No selections today.

Echuca R5 no2 would have been a selection but the race is less than the minimum distance of 1,200 metres.

michaelg
23rd February 2005, 11:34 AM
No selections today - Wed 23/02

captain charger
23rd February 2005, 02:43 PM
What about El Nino at Mornington??

michaelg
23rd February 2005, 02:50 PM
Hi, Captain Charger.

El Nino's last race was 18 Dec. One of the rules states for races between 1,200 and 1,600 metres the selection's last run must be within 24 days.

I haven't backed it - hope it loses.

captain charger
23rd February 2005, 02:55 PM
Thanks Michaelg,just went back before to see why you didn't have it and realised I didn't refer back to Rule 5,cheers.

michaelg
24th February 2005, 11:27 AM
No selections today - Thurs 23/02

michaelg
25th February 2005, 11:27 AM
Three selections today:

Canberra R3 no.5 - Doughboy Hill - System 2 ($11)
Grafton R6 no.6 - Blue Cougar - System 2 ($15)
Grafton R7 no.11 - Peerless Star - System 2 ($11)

Sportz
25th February 2005, 12:16 PM
Again, as I said earlier, System 2 is a roughie system, so don't expect too much. Here's hoping.

Sportz
25th February 2005, 06:12 PM
Don't know what happened to Doughboy Hill. Blue Cougar had a perfect run in the race and looked likely to run a place, but it just didn't go on with it and something pipped it for 3rd right on the line. :(

Sportz
25th February 2005, 06:51 PM
Peerless Star finished about 5th or 6th. Unfotunately, System 2 is proving a real flop. Not good. :o

michaelg
26th February 2005, 12:36 PM
Today's selections are:
Canterbury R7 no.11 - Caught Courting ($21) System 2
Belmont R7 no.1 - Local Legend. System 3
Caulfield R2 no.4 - Shades Of Laughter. System 3
Caulfield R8 no.8 - Dunes ($21) System 2

Sportz
26th February 2005, 07:46 PM
I had B7-6 Yogi's Edition as a system 3 selection too. It was $13 in my paper.

In any case, results not looking that great lately.

michaelg
26th February 2005, 10:53 PM
Sportz, it should have been a system 2 selection. My form guide had a mark/smudge or some printer's ink against the "c" making it look like a "d". That probably makes it one million and one different ways of losing, or missing out on a good return.

Still, I have to record it as a selection. It paid $6.00 in NSW for the place.

Sportz
26th February 2005, 10:58 PM
Yeah. Even so, I'm very disappointed with the results yet again. As I suggested a while back, I feel System 2 and 3 selections are definitely holding us back. System 1 & 4 are both pretty reliable though.

Sarge1
27th February 2005, 10:23 AM
Morning all. Im new to this group and I hope that I may be able to contribute positivly to it.

I have been kicking this system around for a few weeks and would love to be able to feed it into a bigger sample

1. 4 YO only
2. Win %30
3. 4 runs in from spell
4. Placed in 2 out of 3 last starts

Though the selections aren't that plentiful they do tend to get up. I discovered it several weeks ago analyzing results after a monsterly bad day. I smudged some of the ink on the form guide from my tears.

Results have been fair so far.

I subscribe to an equestrian publishing system (the Vision) any opinions on that. At the moment im down the gurgler with it. Does one persist or burn it.
So that I dont get sued I can only include some of it -


Identify all horses that have at least TWO wins and TWO seconds in their last six form figures

An X (spell) counts as a form figure eg 1122x4; 221100; 215128

From these horses:

Delete any RACE with more than 15 final starters. Races with more than 15 starters should be examined prior to the start as scratchings may reduce the total field number to the acceptable 15.
Delete any horse that will carry more than 58.5kg
Delete any horse with a TAB number Greater than 10
Delete any horse that has a win strike rate of 15% or lower
Delete any horse that has a win strike rate higher than 40%
Delete any horse whose last race was less than 7 days ago, or more than 120 days ago, unless the race is a GROUP race when the days allowable are 7 to 14 inclusive
From the horses still remaining:
Delete any horse that is listed at less than $5 (4/1) unless they came 1<SUP>st</SUP> or 2<SUP>nd</SUP> at their last start

Note that for these horses listed at under $5 an X as their last start figure is not acceptable.
From the horses still remaining
If any track has more than three contenders, then for that track select only the two contenders that are the longest price. This rule has no effect whatsoever on selections for any track where there are three or fewer contenders.

The horses remaining Final selections
Delete any Melbourne or Adelaide horses that have a TAB number greater than the TAB number 7

Delete any Sydney or Brisbane horses starting from a barrier greater than barrier no 7
I have made a refinement on no1 as winners qualified when scratchings were taken out

Well thats it, thanks for your help in advance - The Newbie Punter

michaelg
27th February 2005, 12:01 PM
Hi, Sarge1

I've been informed about the Vision system, but looked at it on paper without betting - thankfully.

Sportz, no selections today. I don't have the necessary information for the meeting at Pinjarra, but from what I can see, it appears there would'nt be any selections there either.

yuckman
27th February 2005, 12:33 PM
Mate,
thousands have subscribed( at $150 each) to the Vision System, and it is copyrighted.
you are not permitted to copy/reprise any or all of the system details.

commenting on it's RANK failure is another issue all together!

Sportz
27th February 2005, 12:33 PM
No selections at pinjarra.

darkydog2002
27th February 2005, 12:35 PM
It really does pay to subscribe to punterschoice before parting with the hard earned.
www.punterschoice.com.au
cheers.
darky.

kiwi
28th February 2005, 08:14 AM
Equestarian products are much maligned.

How you use them are up to you.

Personally i have had good returns by applying their plans to Listed and Group racing only.

I give similar advice for following some of the better tipsters ans plans on this site.If you apply all their selections accross the board you are going to include weak, inconsistant, inferior horses in races that on the day any thing can win.

If I have to bet in low class races I use longshot plans and bet an eighth of a percent of my bank.My strike rate in these races drops from 28% to under 5% and the run of outs on average ranges between 9 and 21.

Sportz
28th February 2005, 09:45 AM
Yep, for example I posted quite a few tips on here for Saturday, but I didn't even bet on half of them. In my betting at the moment, I'm concentrating on picking out only the best betting races each day. Concentrating on fewer races means you can study them more and really try to work them out. Yesterday, apart from 4 'specials' I picked out, I concentrated on just 3 races.... R6 & 8 at Pakenham and R7 at Pinjarra. They appeared the best and most reliable races to bet on and so it turned out.

michaelg
28th February 2005, 11:35 AM
No selections today - Mon 28/02

michaelg
1st March 2005, 11:59 AM
No selections today - Tues 01/03

Sarge1
2nd March 2005, 06:00 AM
Oh how silly do I feel? Thanks Darky for the advice. Im glad I havent burnt too much of my hard earned. http://www.punterschoice.com.au/

I am confused though. Because the system is copyrighted it hamstrings a fair and open discussion of its merits (be there any) and whether any refinements can or should be made. Im sorry for posting what I did.

It helps when one has experienced punters and the like, shine collective wisdom for the poor misfortunate newbie punter. I love horses and I love racing, thanks all for the guidance thus far.

Cheers

darkydog2002
2nd March 2005, 08:32 AM
No worries SARGE .
There wouldnt be a punter alive who hasn,t been caught at some stage of their punting career.
But it doesn,t have to be an expensive exercise when you have an honest broker like punters choice.

Cheers.
darky.

michaelg
2nd March 2005, 11:31 AM
One selection today:

Belmont R6 no.9 - Ledger's Dream ($17)

Sportz
2nd March 2005, 11:44 AM
Yeah Michael, that's Murray Bridge, not Belmont. Looking at the form, I'm not keen, but who knows?

michaelg
2nd March 2005, 12:15 PM
I'll still have my minimum bet on it. As you say, who knows?

Sarge1
2nd March 2005, 06:26 PM
What would happen if i posted the Vision, Gold, Roys Gold and another one I cant remember on this site. Would I be sued? or if I posted them as my tips would I be allowed? Thanks

michaelg
3rd March 2005, 11:29 AM
Hi, Sarge1, I think only the moderator can answer your query.

No selections today - Thurs 03/03

michaelg
4th March 2005, 11:35 AM
No selections today - 04/03

Sarge1
5th March 2005, 06:04 AM
Hmm sorry I was thinking about Martin Luther King when I wrote the subject line. In my dream I saw ;

Initial
Brisbane R1 : 7 Blueberry Sue i/c
Brisbane R4 : 2 Taisho i/c
Brisbane R4 : 3 Pager
Melbourne R6: 7 Savabeel

Final BR R4:3
MEL R6:7

And for a group selection Melbourne R5 : 2 Lad of the Manor

However if I was digging for GOLD more than likely I would have found

Brisbane R4 : 1 Hit the road
Adelaide R5 : 2 Royal Image
Melbourne R7 : 15 Raid the Royals (Maybe we should club prince charles over the head whilst he's here in oz and nick of with the crown jewels)

And if I was a practical montlhly punter I would bet on the following

Brisbane R 7: 4 Tellum (exactly what Im doin)
Sydney R9 : 2 Seul Amor
Melbourne R 4 : 13 Dizelle

I then woke up to discover my sheets were all sticky (with sweat ;)

michaelg
5th March 2005, 09:40 AM
Two selections today:

Caulfield R2 no.2 - Hillfa (system 3)
Gold Coast R6 no.5 - Rapid Reason (system 2 - $11)

zetor
6th March 2005, 11:26 AM
Why do you have to have 12 runners?
Like today at Bendigo race 8 no1 Fernando was a sys 1 bet until Mock got scratched,wouldn't his chances be better now with 1 less horse in the race?

Why not say mim of 10 runners the results would be roughly the same wouldn't they?

Sportz
6th March 2005, 12:04 PM
You are free to play with the rules as you wish, but in the period I was testing this, a minimum of 12 starters worked best. The more runners there are, the greater advantage it is to have barrier 1. And there was also better value with the larger fields.

Fernando certainly has a good chance today, so you can back it if you wish, but it won't be an official selection.

Sportz
6th March 2005, 12:06 PM
Caulfield R2 no.2 - Hillfa (system 3)
Gold Coast R6 no.5 - Rapid Reason (system 2 - $11)

Sorry Michael, but Hillfa was in a 2yo race and I don't include those in this system.

michaelg
6th March 2005, 12:17 PM
Hi, Sportz.

Sorry for missing that it was a 2 year-old race - it's one of the rules.

One selection today:
Sun Coast R4 no.5 - Bernie's Star ($15)

Sportz
6th March 2005, 09:08 PM
Well, Fernando was unplaced but there was another one at the Sunshine Coast (Kendrick Lad) was in a 10 horse race which won paying $5.10. Still prefer to stick to 12 horses plus though.

michaelg
7th March 2005, 11:25 AM
No selections today - Mon 07/03

zetor
7th March 2005, 11:33 AM
Isn't their a system 1 at Geraldton Race 2 No1 Captain Woody a field of 14 to run?

michaelg
7th March 2005, 11:53 AM
Hi, Zetor.

I automatically ignore Maiden races. However, now that you mention it as a qualifier I have looked at Sportz's rules and he does not delete Maidens. So it is a selection for method 1.

From today I will no longer ignore Maidens. Hope it wins.

zetor
7th March 2005, 11:56 AM
Yes! he say's nothing about maiden race only 2yr and jumps?

Sportz
7th March 2005, 11:59 AM
Ummm, yeah that's right. Maidens are okay for this system. Captain Woody doesn't have a great record, but neither does anything else in the race. What are it's odds?

zetor
7th March 2005, 12:05 PM
Not know but the tipster for the courier mail doesn't pick it to run in the first 3.

Sportz
7th March 2005, 12:14 PM
What do they pick? I just had a look at the Tabform site and it says $6.00, with Heavy Handed at $5 and Firm Edge at $8. In maiden races, I often like horses which have had one run back from a spell for a 2nd placing. That means Heavy Handed. Firm Edge had three 2nds in a row before a last start failure. Who knows? In a race like this, perhaps the first starter even has a chance? Not all that confident about Captain Woody but let's see how he goes.

zetor
7th March 2005, 12:56 PM
I see they have add blinkers to Captain Woody this time.

Sportz
7th March 2005, 04:29 PM
Damn. I backed 1, 4 & 5 for a win and took an any2 bet with the 3 of them. I actually considered Hot Stats but just went with the 3 favs instead.

By the way, on the Horse Racing Forum, xpt driver had Hot Stats included in his ratings for the race:
4 $4.1 FIRM EDGE
5 $5.4 HEAVY HANDED
1 $5.4 CAPTAIN WOODY
6 $7.3 HOT STATS

zetor
7th March 2005, 08:50 PM
Are you going to include maiden races after today(but if it had won or run a place would have been different)?
Any way i had 20 x 40 still waiting,that was my first system 1 bet sence starting.

Sportz
7th March 2005, 09:51 PM
Oh dear. $60? Geez, I HATE to see people losing that sort of money on my systems or selections. I certainly didn't bet that much, because I wasn't really very confident. I'm disappointed with how this is going. The forum curse has obviously struck. :o

Perhaps it would be advisable to leave the maidens alone, although I had got a couple of good results previously with them. So, I'd suggest perhaps if you want to keep using this, you could rule out maidens and stick to systems 1 & 4.

Sportz
8th March 2005, 09:01 AM
Okay, I've been going back over the results and the maidens have done quite well, so I'll leave it up to you if you want to include them.

Since Dec 1:
System 1: Selections 12, Wins 6, Placings 9, Win Profit 138%, Place Profit 41%
System 4: Selections 13, Wins 6, placings 11, Win Profit 88%, Place Profit 88%

Without Maidens:
System 1: Selections 9, Wins 4, Placings 7, Win Profit 81%, Place Profit 39%
System 4: Selections 11, Wins 5, placings 9, Win Profit 87%, Place Profit 97%

Definitely nowhere near a big enough sample to know if this has a chance of working long term, but the figures for these two systems are okay so far.

During the test period, systems 2 & 3 both went well, but I always had my doubts about them. Since I posted the rules, there has been just one good winner for system 3 (of those that weren't also picked for system 4), but depending on the form guide they use, many people would have missed that winner. Meanwhile System 2 has been a big failure. Still suspect that it will pop up with a winner sooner or later though and it's liable to be BIG!

michaelg
8th March 2005, 11:00 AM
Sportz, I'll continue to look at Maidens.

No selections today - Tues 08/04

michaelg
9th March 2005, 11:37 AM
No selections today - Wed 09/03

michaelg
10th March 2005, 11:38 AM
No selections today - Thurs 10/03

michaelg
11th March 2005, 11:03 AM
No selections today - Fri 11/03

michaelg
12th March 2005, 09:29 AM
One selection today:

Morphetville R7 no.11 - Navy Shaker. System 2, $13.00

Sportz
12th March 2005, 10:13 AM
Hmmm, once again, not confident. I'm sure one of these System 2 selections will bob up one day at big odds, but I don't know that it'll be this one. Shablec's a pretty good horse.

michaelg
13th March 2005, 11:32 AM
No selections today. Unfortunately I don't have the necessary information for some of the minor meetings.

michaelg
14th March 2005, 11:34 AM
One selection today:

Armidale R2 no.3 - Morning Flare. System 3.

Sportz
15th March 2005, 07:44 AM
Well, I guess we had to find a winner sooner or later.

michaelg
15th March 2005, 11:27 AM
Yes, we got a winner. However, I inadvertantly omitted a System 2 selection - Moonee Valley R2 no.10 - it was unplaced.

No selections today.

Sportz
15th March 2005, 11:44 AM
Ahh yes, I noticed that one. I've basically given up on system 2 selections though. The current losing run is just too bad to keep following them at the moment. It will probably get a winner in the near future, probably at big odds, but would we have enough money left by then to back it??? At the moment, I'm concentrating mainly on systems 1 & 4. You don't get many selections with those two systems, but they are definitely more reliable.

michaelg
16th March 2005, 11:09 AM
No selections today - Wed 16/03.

michaelg
17th March 2005, 11:13 AM
No selections today - Thurs 17/03

michaelg
18th March 2005, 11:18 AM
No selections today - Fri 18/03

michaelg
19th March 2005, 12:15 PM
No selections today.

Sportz, I think because of the very few selections I might stop monitoring the system for now. I'll check them periodically, and if the number of selections increase I might start listing them again.

Good luck if you continue betting them in the meantime.

Sportz
19th March 2005, 12:21 PM
Yeah, the selections have really dried up. I am going to continue to look out for System 1 & 4 selections. They are the most reliable.