Greyhound system testing

[cliftonarms]

Over the past few years I have collected a huge amount ( 19,000 races ) of greyhound form data for UK 6 dog races and am beginning to test different systems with it. Its been a hobby up to date but I am taking it a bit more seriously now.

If you have a system and want it tested, list it out precisely with each stage explained clearly and I will test it and private message you with the result. This will benefit me by seeing a new system and you by having your system tested, so we both win. Only systems that can be tested using the sort of form information you normally find on a race card at a meeting or in a newspaper can be checked out.

No c**p systems like the old “if a trap looses six times in a row bet on it to win the seventh”. I have studied statistics at degree level so I can spot a finger in the air system a mile off.

If you prefer not posting your system publicly then private message me your system and I will get back to you. But please bare in mind that I have a day job so testing may take a while.

No I'm not a scam artist, just a greyhound enthusiast with data to search and test systems until I come across one that works and gets me out of my day job. The back-scratching for testing other punters systems for them, is seeing the system ideas myself.

So testing could be anything from checking the winning ratio of a system right up to working the odds payback verses wagering levels of a system.

Seems fair to me.


PS. I have a huge amount of time invested in my data, so it will not leave my hands easily. I'm sure you understand, so don't ask me for my data.

[Shaun]

hi Cliftonarms

Thats funny you talking about UK doga....found myself having a dabble on them the other night....couple of questions for you....do they have exactas in the UK and are you able to estimate the payout dividend on a winning combo.....also what percentage of favs win and at what price.

Shaun

[cliftonarms]

Shaun

Average Favourite payout = 2.102
Average favourite win rate = 20.34%
Approximate combined forcast return = 1.53 X odds1 X odds2 for each dog

And sorry I do not know about the exactas

Hope this helps

[brave chief]

Faves in the UK only have a 20% s/r @ 10/9 in a 6 dog field? Thats worse than the pokies.

[kenchar]

Hi All,
2 weeks ago I tipped a dishlicker on the forum, it won by 4 lengths.

The dog belongs to a close friend, the dog was racing again this week at Gosford, my friend drove up to Gosford to have $2000 on it, bookies and tote, because the fleas won't have a go.

He was to ring me whether to bet it or not, when He checked the weights the dog (bitch) was .4 of a kilo over her winning weight.

He did not back it.

It ran 3rd.

To be constantly successfull at the dishlickers You HAVE to know it's best winning weight, regardless of what the poster that sounds like a moustache says about all my crap.

Also to the moustache the trainer I mentioned a while ago about being suspended, and you bagged me,and that I didn't know what I was talking about, check the trainers on Sydney races and see if you see the name.

1000/1 you don't.

Cheers

[Benny]

How do you find out the dogs winning weight?

Benny

[kenchar]

Check it's previous form, BUT then you have to be at the track to check it.

[woof43]

The racing weights are posted on the internet at the GRV site prior to every Victorian meeting commencing, as they are weighed they are entered into the system an displayed at the above web site.

[kenchar]

Is there anything the same in NSW

[Mark]

20% win rate at 10/9....can't see it myself.

[woof43]

Kenchar
Sadly to say no there isn't, which is a terrible shame, as NSW dog racing was once the premier state.
Now it is in a terrible state of disarry, with no light at the end of the tunnel.

[woof43]

I would say clifton's database has some major glitch's if that's the stat for Fav's

[cliftonarms]

Woolf43

The data I use is untouched, I make sure that I do not edit my primary database for exactly the reasons that you suggest, to avoid glitches. I only work on systems by copying the required data to another dBase table.

Unfortunately the bookies make their money from the favourites, short odds of 2-1 or worst and 1/4 chances of the fav dog winning makes a quick path to the poor house for favourite enthusiasts.

[BJ]

If that is the fav stat, seems like a big return to lay these dogs.... What more of a system do you need.... ?

[Nigel]

Hi cliftonarms,

Can you give me some stats please on greyhounds from box 1 if they aren't the favourite. ie 2nd to 8th fav win % and ROI. Also the ROI from dogs running from box 6 if they are 1st to 4th fav.
Thanking you in advance,
Nigel

[woof43]

Hi,
Nigel my database is based on most australian dog tracks, here are the results for the last 3 months of racing last year as per your query.
Box 1
Rank1 -27.91%
#2- -16%
#3- -8.8%
#4- -11.91%
#5- -24.49%
#6- +40.97%
#7- -23.49

Box 6
Rank 1 -4.46%
#2 +10.96%
#3 -18.84%
#4 +19.6%
#5 +8.44%

[Nigel]

Thanks for that woof.

I presume the figures you have given me are for the win? So interpreting your results a profit would be made over all from betting box 6 2nd to 5th favourite for a win? Is that correct?

Cheers,
Nigel

[woof43]

Nigel, yes thats for the win, the POT is approx 8% with not much variance.

Sorry I can't provide more specific data re the strike rates.

[Mr ed]

Completely off the track, but does anybody Know of a dog named Kobbly Rock or something similar, i just remembered its name. I backed it in whilst in Yarrawonga MM day after 100 beers and thought it was just a huge run after running off the track, any info would be great.

Cheers ED

[moeee]

Kobble Rock.
Just a dog really!

[Mr ed]

Cheers mate it must have been in just a race then, because i think it should've shit in.

[moeee]

Stayers tend to look impressive as they catch up to tiring leaders.

[Nigel]

Woof,

Thanks for that, much appreciated. Can I ask one more favour please? Can you give me the stats for races with 8 runners? I presume the stats you gave me are for races after scratchings where there maybe less than 8 starters?

Cheers,
Nigel