Odds-On , Get-On ???

[Adrian]

I have recently been analysing my IAS betting account, looking for patterns in my results over the past 18 months or so. During that time I have concentrated most of my bettibng on Pro-punter's "Super Specials", but limited to Melbourne and Sydney only, where I can bet at Top Fluctuation in a reasonably "Fair" market framed to around 105%.

What has become evident is that most of my profit seems to be coming from odds-on winners, where I seem to have around an 85% strike rate at an average price of something like $1.80. (For the mathematicians that's someting like a 53% profit on turnover ie. 10 units bet for 15.3 units return)

Have any other Pro-punter members noticed the same phenomenon ??
Unfortunately my data is a little limited - eg I am not sure as to how many horses rated at odds-on by Proputer have won at odds of $2plus.

Can anyone help out with more precise data ?
I seem to have identified something like 17 winners and 3 losers at odds-on since the super specials were introduced.

Does Propunter have records of the rated odds given to Super Specials ?

[Neil]

Hello,
Maybe you have included a few of the horses winning that were assessed at $2.00. But from a small sample there has been over a 90% winning strike rate when we assessed a horse at odds on, our minimum value odds were available and the TF was $2.00 or shorter.
Cheers, Neil

[Adrian]

Thanks Neil,
It certainly seems like Propunter has had great sucess in picking those "true" odds-on favourites. - granted however that it is a limited sample size.

It does however give me quite a degree of confidence in backing super special selections even when at odds-on. Previously I have been hesitant to back horses when odds-on.

[Dirk Gently]

I'm also been analysing my profit per odds segment and I'm just breaking even in the <$2 segment but am finding okay profits when my top selection is beween $3 and $5. Above $5 is good but I don't have a large enough sample size to get excited about it. The trouble with following odds on runners is that you don't need much luck to make a profit for a few months straight but then if the luck turns it becomes a "death of a thousand cuts" whereby you win a bit, lose a little bit more and so on. I spent 88 bets, $476 just to graft $20 back at just over 5% POT on odds on horses. Thats a lot of work for a result that could have gone the other way, so I avoid them now. If you can sustain your 50%+ POT then you'd be mad to stop though.

[brave chief]

I assume the Specials at 1/1 or better are making a tidy profit? Stick to them.

Taking the odds-on is exactly what your bookie wants you to do.