Interesting stats - Volume II

[marylin]

All good info Privateer, thanks again .
now who or what is "Pareto"

[Placegetter]

Pareto's law of 80/20 is often used in business. They say that 80% of your profit comes from 20% of your clients, and the vice versa applies too.

I think you should now be able to make the association Privateer wants you to from that information offered.

[Privateer]

My friend Placegetter is correct.

Expanding a little further re Pareto's rule: This rule says - "eighty percent of your troubles will come from 20 per cent of your problems". In other words, problems will rarely have equal impact, so it is best to first concentrate on the most important.

The value of this rule is not that it provides a scientifically accurate estimation of the weightings which attach to a range of alternatives (which it does not), but simply that it is a reminder to always look for 'the vital few' issues, and to separate them from 'the trivial many', before attempting to solve problems.

Privateer

[Placegetter]

I'm guessing the winning barrier stats fall in the "trivial many" part of the program.

Perhaps more important is "how wide can a horse run from without being disadvantaged?"

If a backmarker, it can start in the car park for all I care, frontrunners and on pace, completely different story.

[becareful]

On 2002-05-07 09:17, Placegetter wrote:
I'm guessing the winning barrier stats fall in the "trivial many" part of the program.


I'd have to agree with you on that one - I think a lot of people overestimate the importance of barrier draw and hence you can often get good value bets in the outer barriers (because some people wont bet on it if it is outside say barrier 8 or so). If you are going to consider barrier draw then you MUST look at the layout of the particular track, specifically how far is it from the start point to the first corner - on many track/distance combinations you have quite a long straight before the first corner and this makes barrier position much less important. Also the longer the race the less important the barrier position (in my opinion anyway).

Personally I pretty much ignore barrier position and look for the best value horses - if it is drawn wide you will probably get better odds and it will pay better when it wins!

[Placegetter]

Puntz,

If you do persist with the winning barrier idea, don't forget to consider the number of runners in each race. Doomben yesterday had a race with only 5 or 6 runners in it, so barriers 7 onwards never got a chance to "win". This could blow out your numbers are fair bit.

[Privateer]

Brumby

Please feel free to email me.

Privateer

[Privateer]

Puntz

The "Sportsman" provides good information particularly in their weekend editions. I can't comment on "Wizard" as I don't use it but I'd suggest you'd find similar good information in that publication.

Privateer

[schmucta80]

gday
this is the first i have head of paretos law, can anyone tell me how i could use this to start a system, it seems to be lost to me at the moment, it has not yet clicked , any info would be much appreciated.
cheers
ps get on mega achiever at the valley tomorrow, its an absolute bird
pps then get on brandy creek ram in the doggies at ballarat

[Privateer]

Schmucta80...It basically means (in this case) that there are statistics that have a considerable bearing on the result of a race and those that have little bearing. The trick is to sort out which is which taking into account that the BEST will be only 20% or so of the overall statistics available.

I've tried to give you a head start with my first post here.

PUNTZ...sorry mate, misunderstood you. I'll do some checking today and see what I can help you with.

[Privateer]

PUNTZ found something that MAY be useful. Email me for details.

[Bhagwan]

Dear Puntz;
Re punting stats.

Check out http://www.geocities.com/puntersnotebook/

They can emial you any racing stats based answer on any racing question asked , like the ones you have.

[Bhagwan]

Excellent information once again privateer.

Keep up the good work.

[Bartman]

Privateer have you done any stats on the number of runs a horse has had and how it relates to winners.I have read of punters only backing horses with between 10 and 30 starts only. They feel that lees than 10 horses improvement is hard to predict and after 30 they can become to smart to run well. Get bad habits so to speak.

Bartman

[Privateer]

Bartman

No, It's never actually occurred to me to run those stats and think it would be a fairly difficult task.

I honestly believe that this falls into the "trivial information" category. I'm sure the horses don't know how many starts they have had. I can picture a horse making chalk marks on its stable door. When it gets to 30 it says "well, that's it for me, I ain't trying!"

Seriously, the number of starts a horse has had is no real guide to its chances in a race.

Privateer