Setting up for a race...

[BJ]

Don't know too much about classes of races and things, but alot of classy horses at least, are setting for a future race. This must mean that they are not at their peak no matter how good.

At what point do horses cross the class line where they are able to race to gain fitness as opposed to race to win?
Obviously some horses are going out there to try and win every race, but surely others are just there to gain fitness in a race situation.

Am I right?
Do trainers aim for a race win, or to complete a goal for their campaign?

Are people here that rate horses on their previous runs taking into account that they might be building up to something, or just presuming that the horse was set up to try and win each race.?

I have heard fitness levels mentioned before, but not very often....
These are genuine questions to try and learn more about the wonderful world of racing....

[tomo]

Hi Bj,

There are clues given on the forms that indicate whether a horse is being target for a specific distance/race.

For example, if a horse peaked last prep, 2up or 3up, whereas, this prep, after 3up or 4up and has not peak yet, the trainer could have been set the horse to peak today race. Some horses peaked early in its prep, espeacially sprinter, which comes to hand quickly, hence peak at its first few starts. If a horse won easily over sprint distances, eg. 1400m, but this prep, it raced over 1400m, 2up and 3up, with finishing with a few lengths, and today its running over 1600m, the trainer may have specific targetting today race. For a sprinter to race well over middle plus race, they need more works, and hence the last few starts were used to toughen them up for the tough assigment down the prep.

Sometime u can look at the step up in distance and the number of days between starts. For example, one case i remembered was 2003 Turnbull stakes, when Studebaker, won. At first sign, its a lighty raced 4 year old with only 9 starts in its career, but it has won 1700m last prep. When it resumed, it has 3 starts, over sprint distances, with its last start which has 20 days break and raced over 1500m 3up, where the in running showed that it held ground where it finished 5th place with 1.5L margin. Then 7 days later, it stepped up by 500m over 2000m. The clue is already given here, with the 20 days freshen up over 1500m, and then back up in 7 days with 500m step up in distance. A trainer wouldnt do this if he does not think the horse is not in peak form. Studebaker won at a juicy odd paying $22.30 on the NSW TAB.

For me i look for days between races and distance between starts to judge whether a horse is being set for a target race. Some stayers, run over sprint distances ( which they find the distances short and appear to run badly, but they were just running a stayer pace, where other sprinters are running in sprint pace ) to toughen them up, and then back up to longer distances, where these horses will run in peak form.

Just because a horse ran badly in the last few starts does not mean the horse will run badly today.

I hope this help.

[brave chief]

Hey Tomo, 2 weeks ago there was a result similar to your Studebaker example. A Rogerson trained horse with 2 career starts stepping up from 1200m to 1600m on a 7 day back up. It won, paid $8.30 here.

Its worth noting those sorts of things, particularly if you have confidence in the trainer.

[KennyVictor]

Is there the seed of a system here? Up in distance x meters, raced within 7 days.

[tomo]

Some of the top trainers, set their horse to peak at group races, use this pattern. Their preceding start, used it to toughen up the horse, and then given 21 days or 7 days, to peak the horse. For horses that can win first up in past preps, but ran poorly in the first few starts this prep, signs are that the trainer held up the horse for a target race/distance, espeacially if its back up in 7 days, as these 1st upper winners only need 1 week of work to send them to peak form.
It always paid to check carefully of horses that step up in distance by more than 400m in 7 or 21 days break.
For sprint races, some trainers use 1600m as a toughen up race, and then drop back to sprint distances, where it may peak on the day.
Such pattern does not mean it will win but just an indication of the trainer targetting the specific race / distance.

[BJ]

to suggest......

That a horse stepping up in distance, would be looking for a sit off the pace and a sprint home...?
And a horse that is stepping down in distance, would be looking for a front running race?

It is probably a stupid thing for me to say, and impossible to tell but.
It would make sense to me that a horse in shorter races is working on speed, and a horse in longer races is working on fitness....

Obviously when I say shorter races, I am talking in relation to that particular horses previous race distances....