Never know your luck...

[BJ]

Just been through the formguides for today...
Bit late for a couple of races but here are some horses I will be watching today....
I will dutch them to win $200 using Monopoly money of course..... Haven't checked scratchings or anything, just straight from the paper....

Mornington
R1: 1
R3: 3
R4: 2, 14
R5: 1, 10
R6: 4
R8: 11

Wagga
R2: 4,6
R3: 12
R4: 5

Tamworth
R4: 4
R6: 5
R7: 1

Townsville
R2: 3, 6
R5: 5,8,14
R8: 5, 12, 20

Just didn't want to post them after the fact, because, well you know.....
NP: Please don't think that these are winners and back them, this is just an idea for now....

[BJ]

Mornington
R1: 1 $10 @ $19.66 L
R3: 3 SCRATCHED
R4: 2 SCRATCHED
14 13.5@$14.94 L
R5: 1 18@$11.19 L
10 SCRATCHED
R6: 4 SCRATCHED
R8: 11 26.5@$7.58 L

Wagga
R2: 4 4@$51.61 L
6 3@$68.88 L
R3: 12 7@$28.96 L
R4: 5 68@$2.95 L

Tamworth
R4: 4 46@$4.38 2nd@$1.32
R6: 5 4.5@$44.9 L
R7: 1 36.5@$5.5 2nd@$2.47

Townsville
R2: 3 27@$7.42 3rd @$2.24
6 3@$68.07 L
R5: 5 SCRATCHED
8 10@$20.48 L
14 5@$38.28 L
R8: 5 3.5@$60.99 L
12 5.5@$35.6 L
20 SCRATCHED

Total Loss of $291. Based on starting SuperPrice divs...
Obviously not a good day, but the dividends aren't asking for a high strike rate....

For those astute forumites out their, you would realise that these horses are all of the ones with first time gear changes today...

I haven't read too much on these forums about gear changes, so I thought that maybe people don't really look at that. Maybe there is a reason...lol....

Anyway, if anybody happens to have stats regarding results after first time gear changes, (preferably ones that contradict my findings today), could you please help me out by posting something about it here... My forum image could do with the boost.....

And many apologies to those of you that actually read this garbage......

[Top Rank]

BJ

I find gear changes are a type of extra to the form, certainly not something that I could have as a leading selection method. Most of the time if I have a horse rated highly and he is blinkers the first time, I just see it as bonus.

Anything is worth a try though. If you don't have look you will never see.

good Punting.

[BJ]

I just figured it is something that is not mentioned much, but something that can make a big difference to how a horse behaves in a race...
Presumably, horses that aren't producing results will have gear changes and if they aren't getting results, the dividends will reflect that....

And as I said, you never know your luck.....

[Duritz]

LOL if nothing else that just gave me a great laugh, reading BJ's reaction to the results. I don't mean to be rude, I know the feeling only too well, which is precisely why I was able to laugh with it. No offense, I've been down that same road, and I know that joyful anticipation at the beginning of the day, that fresh, dawn feeling of starting out on something new, wondering "maybe this is it, maybe this is the one", only to have all the hope and joy transformed into bitterness, anger, profanities and alcohol by days end. Fear not, you tread that road not alone.

As to gear changes - I reckon heaps of them are best ignored. Still the best one is if you have a young, green horse trained by a good trainer and they whack blinkers on the bugger. They will no doubt have trialled it with blinkers and it no doubt improved, and it also means it's no doubt trying. Nose rolls, shadow rolls, pacifiers, barrier blankets, winkers, blinkers, one eyed trouser snakes - they're all just signs that the horse is temporemental and the trainer is desperate. Steer clear of them.

To paraphase Don Scott (crudely)

"the best horse is calm, composed in the yard. He doesn't lash out, or shy away from the crowd, just walks measuredly around the yard, head down but a glint in his eye and a gleam in his coat."

In fact, that's not even paraphasing. It's guessing. I have no idea what he actually said word for word, but it was along those lines.

Duritz

[BJ]

I am glad if nothing else, that I was able to bring a smile to some of you...
Truth is, I prefer to let others do the work and bet according to price.. None of my serious gambling is done on this sort of thing. Maybe that is why I can afford to keep this internet connection...

Tomorrow is my serious day, so probably nip this in the bud. Might just go over the results at the end of the day and I'll post if I can redeem myself....

[davez]

i remember some years ago bart cummings took over training a horse that all knew had ability but the previous trainer had not been able to get much out of.

the previous trainer had been chopping & changing the horses gear at the last 1/2 dozen starts so the first thing bart did was take off the 3 or 4 extra bits of gear this horse had been carrying - blinkers, tongue tie, etc etc & of course the horse comes out & win its first start for the stable.

so perhaps there is angle when looking at gear changes & trainers that actually know what they are doing?