place betting

Personally i found place betting might be the safest and profitable means of betting
on horses, because there is no certainty in
any form of gambling ,why not give yourself
more chances than just one and lose in the long run.i know most of you think is not worth the hassle on 1.70,1.80 or even 2.00
but do you realise over the period of time
you can build up more and more cash if you have a positive approach and discipine.
and its not that hard to pick places if you
do a bit of study.
any comments?
regard

[Moral]

Agree totally. I have been developing my own system over the past 6-12 months. I have race screening criteria:
1. only bet in fields between 8 and 10 runners
2. Must have exposed form (greater than 2 runs this prep) which generally means 1400m+.
3. Never bet on 2yo, or jumps.
This narrows my race betting options down to one or two each Saturday. I then apply a rating system which takes into account track and distance form, hoop, strike rate, weight, ave prizemoney, barrier, runs this campaign.......
I produce a rating which I convert to a percentage. If the delta between the first and second rated horse is 10% or more then that is my selection. At the moment I am averaging one bet every week. Last Saturday it was Self Interest which ran third and paid $1.60. I have only been keeping records for the past 3 months, but in that time have had 11 bets for 10 collects. I wouldn't say I have 'cracked it' but I am going ok. Now need to refine my staking plan so any help here would be great.

[Placegetter]

Have you ever tried reinvesting your winnings? It's like compound interest on speed.

Example, my day yesterday.

Post $1.50
Tell Someone $1.70
Yell $1.10

Level stakes betting returns 43 units on turnover of 30 units, profit 43%.

However, have three goes at getting three in a row.

10 units - $1.50*$1.70*$1.10 = 28 units or 280%

Made that look good didn't I!

Downside, 1 miss and you're out, but surely a placegetter can pick three in a row some of the time? If not, save your money, paper trade for another ten years.

Good luck.

[Equine Investor]

Placegetter, your system seems fine on maximizing returns, however if you have to wait for an all-up situation to occur, I would think that backing for a win would be just as fruitful and occur more regularly.

[Placegetter]

Who waits for all ups?

[shy]

Soooo glad to see other place punters out there. Everyone to their own... but the stress free surety of place betting won me over a long time ago and I've never looked back.
Good to see your posts
shy :smile:

[Moral]

Placegetter, its a good point, but when I am only averaging one bet per week the logistics of all up betting just don't work. How many bets do you average on a Saturday?

Moral

[Placegetter]

Moral,

I average maybe three bets a weekend. I had six once and felt guilty. Five came in though, so what can I say?

If you have one bet a week, or 42 bets a week (apparently this is possible), the staking plan still applies. Worse though, you must exercise patience. Greed is not good.

So in my previous post, just pretend my bets were a week apart. First week, 10 units on Post returns 15. Next week, 15 units on Tell Someone returns 25.5. Third week, 25 units on Yell returns 27.5.

This is not all up betting by the way, clarify that once and for all. It gives you the choice to decide if something is "value" (insert your own definition). Also, it gives you the choice to bet across meetings, which a standard all-up will not.

The big question is when to stop. Three in a row is good, but seven in a row.........how confident are you?

And it comes back to my point in another topic, each bet you are getting the winnings into your hand (or account), are you brave enough to then drop it all on the next selection? There's a mindset there and an answer which it would be best for you to locate for yourself. Let me know if you have it.

Good luck tomorrow everyone.

Placegetter

PS. Moral, I would suggest you stake two banks. In my opinon, one selection per week is not enough to keep you interested long term. Make it your meat and potatoes and have 10% of available funds somewhere else for what I call "heart" bets.

its better to make and build your bank
slowly then lose in the long run , so stick
to place betting.i could easily pick 4 to 5
places on the all up , then picking a win.
sometimes i could profit close to $1000 just
putting $20 on place all up.
regard!

[Placegetter]

Good point mpunting,

Just to put that return into a dividend example, you would only be looking at place dividends of say $2.50, $2.00, $1.90, $2.20 and $2.40 to get the 50/1 over 5 bets.

As you can see, you are not betting on roughies, most would run at around 7/1 to 12/1.

It's getting the five in a row.......

Maybe go for three to start with, on the above example that is still $9.50 for every dollar.

Good luck.

[Equine Investor]

Yes, very good idea!

Here's another one I call the "insurance bet"

Take your first selection and back it for a place.

Then take an all-up like this:
1)1st 2nd
2)1st 2nd 3rd
3)1st 2nd 3rd 4th
4)etc
So even if you get half way you make something good to cover your bets and still make a profit!
Mind you, you have to have more bets and split them over three or four all-ups.
But could pay dividends...nothing worse than getting 5 out of six placers and getting BANANA!

[Placegetter]

Equine Investor, if you really want to call this an insurance bet, you should cover as many risks as possible. Your staking should be:

1) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
2) 1st, 3rd, 4th
3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
etc

The compounding effect should cover the cost of implementing the staking plan. What do you think?

[Equine Investor]

Yep, it's all good.
But you have to realise by doing this insurance, you also are eating away at potential profits the more combinations of bets you have on each all-up.

[Placegetter]

Which is why it's called insurance I guess. Personally I back my ability, which is improving by the week thanks to certain participants on this forum, and just go for three in a row.

[Moral]

Placegetter,

I will run with your three 'all up' structure, as i agree the compound effect works. In terms of one bet per week, it really is all about discipline - nothing to do with maintaining interest as I actually have some shares in a few (Sanguinity 2nd race 3 at Flemington - actually named him). I am a strong believer that you need to select your races. No more than 12 starters (prefer :cool: lots of exposed form (generally 1400m plus). Race 4 and Race 6 at Flemington were perfect examples. My system selected Badgers Wood and Mr. Magoo $1.90 and $1.40. I would kile to know your view on race selection.
cheers Moral

[Placegetter]

G'day Moral,

I don't think my race selection process is anything out of this world. Usual stuff like no maidens, hurdles are out, I only spend about 10% of my bank on difficult areas like 2 year olds and the like.

I don't know much about your system, but keeping to less than 12 runners might limit your returns a bit? What would you consider a great result for a selection? $2.00?

Let me know how you go staking your system, don't forget that the 2nd horse can be the first horse of a new three in a row attempt!

Placegetter

[Moral]

Placegetter,
thanks for your feedback, it is great. Let me see, I am actually happy with $1.60+. Staking is now taking up a lot of my thought - as I have not nailed this yet. I try to keep each bet to 5% of my bank (current bank $5K). I reckon I can average $1.80 return over the long run and am targeting a 70% strike rate (above this at the moment but early days). At the moment my plan is level staking ($250/bet, growing as the bank grows).
What is your experience with strike rate, average price and what staking plan do you employ? I am particularly interested in your staking plan discipline and whether you would consider a 'saver' on the win to boost returns.
cheers

Moral

[Placegetter]

Well to be honest, I basically concentrate on staking and the horse selctions are secondary. Anyone can pick a few placegetters in a row can't they?

I'm going to get a few chortles from this, but my wife designed the basic principle in my staking plan. It's very conservative with capital and aggressive with profits. Do you understand? Someone mentioned previously that a good system should not require any more than seed capital, with which I agree entirely.

I bet 1% of capital and 100% of profits. Think about it.

Placegetter

PS. It comes down to betting pattern, but I believe my staking will outperform any level stakes approach in the long term, depending on the darn strike rate!

Re: saver on win. Forget it. My opinion.
_________________
Pick it to win, back it to place.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Placegetter on 2002-05-13 22:40 ]</font>