Sports Betting

[Benny]

I have read that one should not invest more than 2% of the bank on any one event.

What do you guys think?

Benny

[knowledge]

well if your bank is $100 then $2 would be ur max. bet. That makes no sense.

what is ur bank balance?

[Benny]

$1000.00

Benny

[Mr J]

Unless you are betting with an advantage, your optimal bet size is actually 0% ;)

2% is ok I guess. If you have an advantage, you are probally not overbetting and if you don't have an advantage, at least you are gambling for low stakes. This figure is used because it's conservative. Less likely to be overbetting, and you can withstand an ugly run before you lose a large chunk of your money.

How serious are you about sportsbetting?

[moeee]

Some guy claimed to be selecting 95% winners.
I suggested he should be betting at least 20% of his bank.

You need to work out your likely longest run of outs and bet accordingly.

[Mr J]

"Some guy claimed to be selecting 95% winners.
I suggested he should be betting at least 20% of his bank."

Heh. 95% winners isn't hard. Just make any bet where you can get a price of $1.01 or lower ;)

"You need to work out your likely longest run of outs and bet accordingly."

You can have an idea of what a bad streak would be, but the thing is the more bets you make, the larger the streaks will be. If someone is just betting for entertainment, best to bet as little as possible. That way their fun lasts longer.

If you are serious, you need to be pretty confident in your abilities to use units larger than 2% (ie you'll want a good sample size and experience and then use maths to figure it out).

[karla909]

I am a Sports better of many years. I handicap tennis and baseball and buy selections on NFL. Have failed miserably at ice hockey, NBA and NRL. (why do they keep changing the friggin rules and teams in NRL???)

Anyway my results overall seem to be about the same each year +5% on each. I am great believer in betting the same amount on each game throughout the season as you never know when the good runs and bad runs will come. The 2% per game rule is a good one in my opinion.

One thing I have noticed is that when I get ahead about 12-15% on NFL and MLB, bad things happen. I now cut my bets to 1% or even .5% when I get 12.5% ahead and then go back to 2% when the overall figures get back to normal. You might say that if you get a big winning streak you are minimizing your profit. I agree but in my experience the winning streak has got me to the +12.5% and more often than not the percentages go back to normal at about this point.

The one thing not to do is bet more when you are losing. While not maximizing profits on a huge winning streak is a blow to your ego, doubling and redoubling on huge losing streaks is a blow to your bank and the rest of your life. In my opinion any progressive betting method on sports is doomed to failure unless you have a great method of backing outsiders.

I bet the same on my tennis bets no matter what because I bet short price favs and often go on 20 -25 winning streaks.

The hardest thing about sports betting is getting to the point where you can bet the same amount every year. We start out at $1000 bank betting $20 and win 10% (100) the first year. The next year you think this is great and double up and win $200. The following year you do the same and double again, but a bit of bad luck and you lose 8% (320).

So overall in three years you have done pretty well (+10, +10, -8) = +12 but you have lost money and are back to square one.

Sports bettng is a cruel hobby at times A bookmaker/punting friend of mine once said to me, a punter can have some miserable days but once in awhile all your bets come in and you feel wonderful. This feeling doesn't come to non-punters and at the end of your life you will have been grateful for having had that experience.

Hope this helps.

[Mr J]

"So overall in three years you have done pretty well (+10, +10, -8) = +12 but you have lost money and are back to square one."

This would be because of poor bankroll management.

"One thing I have noticed is that when I get ahead about 12-15% on NFL and MLB, bad things happen."

Sorry but this is silly.

"You might say that if you get a big winning streak you are minimizing your profit."

You are. Lowering your unit size to protect profits is a waste assuming long as each bet has percevied +EV.

"I bet short price favs"

Very few of these are good bets.

"In my opinion any progressive betting method on sports is doomed to failure unless you have a great method of backing outsiders."

Progressions are a bad idea full stop. A progression decides the size of a bet based on past results and not the size of advantage, which means at some point the progression will call for a bet size that will be overbetting.

That's enough for today heh :D

[karla909]

Hi Mr J

Thanks for taking the time to comment on my response to Benny who seemed like a novice.

So overall in three years you have done pretty well (+10, +10, -8) = +12 but you have lost money and are back to square one."

This would be because of poor bankroll management.

I agree, my point is then when we are starting out, we usually start with a small bankroll, by necessity. As we progress in confidence, we start to have bigger stakes and it only takes a small loss on bigger stakes to wipe out years of wins on smaller stakes. For most people starting out on small bankrolls this is a reality.

"One thing I have noticed is that when I get ahead about 12-15% on NFL and MLB, bad things happen."

Sorry but this is silly.
I know that you suscribe to some selection providers. They do not win every week. If they have a steady ascending profit path throughout a season then indeed my cutting my stakes would be silly. However this is not my experience. I have been with my NFL service for 3 years and they have produced between 5% - 8% profit each year. Last year for example they had the following results

week1 5w -3l = 62.5%
week2 4w -3l = total 9w -6l = 66%
week3 5w- 0l = total 14w - 6l =70%

at this point I decided they were way over the long term average and cut the bet to half
week4 4w-5l
week5 5w -5l
week6 4w -7l = total 27w - 23 l = 54%

now they are back to their long term average, so my bet size went back to normal

week7 4w -1l
week8 3w -2l
so when they had a bad run from weeks 4-6 (13-17) i had less money on.

If you look at the graphs of the MLB product offered by this web site you will see a similiar thing. For example in their 2004 season they made 46 units. I don't know how many bets they had but in the first 2 months they made 39 of those units and then dropped off in June and July before doing well in August.

I believe bankroll management should incorporate adjustments for long term trends and it is my experience that all selection methods go through peaks and dips in a season. I think if you examine all your betting from one service in a season you will find the same thing. However, if your service can provide over 60% winners every week, please let us know who they are.

"I bet short price favs"

Very few of these are good bets.

I agree, it is picking the good ones that is the trick. It does take a lot of work to seperate the wheat from the chaff. In any one tournament I might only find 2 value plays. My research does highlight young performers before the general public does. J Johannson provided most of my profit last year. P Luczak on clay this year is another example.

Progressions are a bad idea full stop. A progression decides the size of a bet based on past results and not the size of advantage, which means at some point the progression will call for a bet size that will be overbetting.

Couldn't agree more - hope Benny gets the messge.

-----

Thanks for taking the time to reply. It is discussions like this that will make us better punters.

Karla

[Mr J]

"I bet short price favs"

Fair enough actually. I was assuming you were just betting on player priced $1.04 or something. The tennis package has plenty of bets on big favourities, but rarely below $1.10

"I agree, my point is then when we are starting out, we usually start with a small bankroll, by necessity. As we progress in confidence, we start to have bigger stakes and it only takes a small loss on bigger stakes to wipe out years of wins on smaller stakes. For most people starting out on small bankrolls this is a reality."

If you had resized you unit size reguarly, this wouldn't happen (unless you were overbetting). Most punters do overbet though, it's really only the serious ones (looking to profit) who take risk of ruin seriously. If someone is betting for fun, they probally expect to lose so risk isn't a problem ;)

"I know that you suscribe to some selection providers. They do not win every week."

Yes I do. No they don't (unfortunately). By 5-8% profit each year, I assume you mean profit on turnover (return on investment). If you mean profit on turnover, then I can understand why you cut back if he runs hot. You expect that there will be a 'correction', and you want to minimize your losses. It doesn't work like that though. All bets are independent of each other, and are random. Since every bet has a perceived edge, you actually are missing out on money as there will be times there isn't a correction. Your way isn't optimal, but if you are happy locking in your profits then that's fine.

"If you look at the graphs of the MLB product offered by this web site you will see a similiar thing. For example in their 2004 season they made 46 units. I don't know how many bets they had but in the first 2 months they made 39 of those units and then dropped off in June and July before doing well in August."

Sure. However, You CAN'T predict how they will do going forward though. You CAN'T predict when the capper will make his profits. Trying to play trends will cost you money longterm.

"I believe bankroll management should incorporate adjustments for long term trends and it is my experience that all selection methods go through peaks and dips in a season"

Sure there are peaks and dips, but you can't predict when they will happen. That is my point. If you have a 60% capper and he goes 75-25, that doesn't mean he's 'due' for a bad run to knock him back to 60%. The most likely result is that he will hit 60% going forward, so by lowering your bet size or not betting at all, you are missing out on profits.

"However, if your service can provide over 60% winners every week, please let us know who they are."

I can't comment on that. If I had access to 60% winners, why would I share them ;)

[karla909]

Thanks again for replying.

1. On short price - my cutoff is 1.10 on tennis.

2. My stats are based on Profit on turnover. This is an interesting discussion. Obviously your experience is different from mine. This is good.

Sure there are peaks and dips, but you can't predict when they will happen. That is my point. If you have a 60% capper and he goes 75-25, that doesn't mean he's 'due' for a bad run to knock him back to 60%. The most likely result is that he will hit 60% going forward, so by lowering your bet size or not betting at all, you are missing out on profits


I see your point, it just doesn't fit my experience. My experience is that the capper hits 40-45% to bring his overall seasonal average back to the 56% POT after the seasonal average gets above 70% POT. I agree, on short term fluctionations, you never know.

3. I noticed that you bet on hockey. I am Canadian and have never been successful on hockey, but still love the game. I realize this season was wiped out. How did your hockey capper go in 2003?


4. Sounds like the packages offered here are good. Any recommendations.

I am trying to make a living out of sports betting, so I value your opinion even if we disagree.

karla

[Mr J]

"My experience is that the capper hits 40-45% to bring his overall seasonal average back to the 56% POT after the seasonal average gets above 70% POT"

I understand your logic. Often a capper will experience a 'correction', but this is random and not maths trying to bring the figures back to hit longterm strikerate.

"3. I noticed that you bet on hockey. I am Canadian and have never been successful on hockey, but still love the game. I realize this season was wiped out. How did your hockey capper go in 2003?"

Used to. Had this capper recommended to me who profited 175 units over the 2 previous seasons, something like 57.5%. I jumped on the bandwagon and watched him drop 20 units like *that*. I cut my losses and stopped betting the picks which continued to drop another 25 units.

"Sounds like the packages offered here are good. Any recommendations."

Yep. I'm a member of the tennis and mlb and they're great. Tennis is 13% over a few thousand bets, and mlb is 5-6% over 2800 bets. Haven't tried any of the others.

"I am trying to make a living out of sports betting, so I value your opinion even if we disagree."

Discussion is a great way to learn/develop sportsbetting skills. Keep it up.

[Mr ed]

Karla, you obviously know what your doing, however it seems by cutting back your bets when you hit 12% or so you are are minimising your return. If your selection process is providing good profit why reduce the bet size? It is as if you are betting more when your selections are losing then if they are winning. POT doesn't have to be described on a per annum basis, every year is just an extension on the previous. If your selections have a + edge of say 5% POT, your years will still greatly vary but over time should even themselves out and the longer you go the closer you should become to this 5% edge you have, in real terms. By lowering your bet when up a certain % you will alter and ultimately reduce this 5% egde you have. And just curious, do you spend the same amount of time and study on selections when only betting .5% as opposed to 2%? i think subconciously you couldn't, and you would make more (riskier) investments when only betting .5% and this could be a factor in the evening out process you are talking about.

[karla909]

Thanks Mr ed and Mr J for your replies.


I think I see the picture now. You guys think that all your betting is one long continous endeavour so predicting good and bad runs is counter productive to producing profit. You must be racing guys. I now see your point. Thank you.

I do look on it as a sesonal thing. In NFL, I try and get my 5% objective for the season and treat the next season as a completely new endeavour. Thus I am willing to sacrifice profit for the overall 5% and maybe missing out on greater return.

Ok, I will monitor this further.

By the way, if I would have quit for the year in NFL after the 3rd week when I hit 70%, I would have been further in front than I would if I bet the same for the whole year.

Karla

[Mr J]

"You must be racing guys"

Nope. Tennis, aussie football codes and some US sports.