Trying a different approach..

[xptdriver]

Gday All

As ever I am looking for different angles... the following are untried... I am posting them to see if the "Forum Curse" kills this idea too :)

Monday - 7 February

Grafton

Race 2 2:24 PM Big Brother Maiden Handicap
1 Thanks Be To God

Race 4 3:35 PM Rove Live Handicap Class 3
3 Cool Caboul

Race 5 4:10 PM The X-Factor Handicap Class 5
6 Simply Viv
1 In The Nick
4 Lord Vasey

Race 6 4:50 PM Southern Cross Ten Handicap Open
5 Sensache

Race 7 5:30 PM Australian Idol Handicap Class 2
7 Probation

Horsham

Race 1 1:00 PM Mixx F M Maiden Plate Set Weight 3yo+
8 Mezaire
2 Desert Drummer
7 Con Kiss Dior

Race 2 1:36 PM Horsham Hire Maiden Plate Set Weight 3yo+
10 Gateway Lass

Race 3 2:12 PM Wimmera Mail Times Maiden Plate Set Weight 3yo+
1 Dreja

Race 4 2:48 PM Wimmera Design & Print Handicap Class 2
7 Wild Chilli

Race 6 4:00 PM St Kilda Rd Parkview Hotel Handicap Class 4
Apprentices Cannot Claim.
4 Balletamis
3 Sugar Foot Stomp

Race 7 4:40 PM Royal Hotel Handicap Class 3
3 Mypollonga
1 Loanshark
9 Cloudy Horizon

Muswellbrook

Race 1 1:24 PM Linga Longa Hotel Maiden Plate Set Weight 3yo+
5 Our Liam

Race 3 2:36 PM Muswellbrook Hotel Handicap Class 4
7 Serene Beau
3 Huckleberry Bay
6 Ticklicker

Race 4 3:15 PM Muswellbrook Hoteliers Day Out Handicap Open
2 Incident

Race 5 3:50 PM Victoria Hotel Moonan Flat Maiden Handicap
3 Clantastic
4 Birubi Pomp

Race 6 4:25 PM Royal Hotel Muswellbrook Handicap Class 4
2 Jamaica Farewell

Race 7 5:05 PM Tourist Hotel Sandy Hollow Handicap Class 1
3 Oriental Chef
1 Magic Snow
5 Princess Grey

Race 8 5:45 PM Eatons Hotel Muswellbrook Handicap Class 2
4 Reluctant Prince
3 Dextrovert
8 Pimpala General

[Sportz]

Not confident today, but here's some of my thoughts:

MUSWELLBROOK
R1 - 5 OUR LIAM, 3 Deceitful Judge, 9 Coniston Mover (5,3,9,1,4)
R5 - 1 ELROY, 3 Clantastic, 4 Birubi Pomp, 2 Shackles (1,3,4,2,12,7)
R7 - 3 ORIENTAL CHIEF, 2 Phan, 4 Herbatome (3,2,4,1,5)
R8 - 1 RUNNING JEANS, 4 Reluctant Prince, 3 Dextrovert (1,4,3,5,8)

GRAFTON
R3 - 1 SUN AND SAND, 2 What's The Scoop, 3 Lanzo (1,2,3,5,4,8)
R4 - 4 COSMIC DREAM, 1 Inside Knowledge, 8 Starlactic (4,1,8,3,7,5)
R5 - 6 SIMPLY VIV, 6 Wakomba, 1 In The Nick (6,5,1,2,3)
R6 - 2 SIR DAN, 12 Port And Brandy, 1 So Equal (2,12,1,10,3,5)
R7 - 5 FINAL OBJECTIVE, 1 Ashbury, 7 Probation (5,1,7,6,12,14)

[TheAvenger]

Thanks, Sportz, Xpt.

Regards,


Glenn

[Sportz]

MUSWELLBROOK
R5 - 1 ELROY, 3 Clantastic, 4 Birubi Pomp, 2 Shackles (1,3,4,2,12,7)


DAMN!!!! When I worked out the ratings this morning, I actually had Dublin Lights rated 5th, but when it came to posting my tips, I left it out altogether. STUPID MOVE! Was very confident about Elroy though.

[xptdriver]

Gday Sportz.

In that race, using my standard ratings I had em 3-1 (rated at $4.00) -4-12-2-9.. I am trying a filter on my top 6 to see how it goes... it isn't a total failure just yet, but I am still not in front at this stage using this filter... Having said that it returned a pretty nice profit yesterday of about 20%

[Sportz]

I've only recently begun working out ratings on a more regular basis and sometimes I just don't tend to trust what they come up with. A good example is the next race at Grafton. My ratings actually came out like this:

2 Sir Dan 55.0
10 Diamond And Ice 54.0
11 Postcard Bandit 53.0
12 Port And Brandy 51.0
3 Autumn Showers 50.0
1 So Equal 48.0
5 Sensache 48.0

But for some reason, when I actually posted my tips, I dropped Diamond And Ice down a couple of spots and left Postcard Bandit out altogether.

[xptdriver]

Gday Sportz,

Mypollonga put me in profit... yay..

In regards to ratings, I reckon if you have something that works for ya, you have to trust what it spits out at times, even tho they might seem a bit off kilter... those off kilter ratings can sometimes mean the difference between a profit and a loss.. I think most capable people can produce a set of ratings that puts the fav at the head of the list... I do that a lot.. but it takes a different eye or whatever that can come up with ratings that give you good priced winners, and they don't have to agree with the crowd's perception of a race (wish I could do that more often)

As it turns out flicking Postcard Bandit was a good idea... I didnt come close with my ratings...Sir Dan and Choccy Starfish WERE the class horses and they quinelled the race , but first up and the other with 60 kg... not for me... oh well bring on the next race :)

[Sportz]

Hmmm, I usually use an excel spreadsheet for my ratings, but today, I just quickly scribbled them down in a notebook. Silly thing to do, because I've just noticed that I didn't add up correctly and Chocolate Starfish actually should have been rated ahead of both So Equal and Sensache for that race. It should have been:

2 Sir Dan 55.0
10 Diamond And Ice 54.0
11 Postcard Bandit 53.0
12 Port And Brandy 51.0
3 autumn Showers 50.0
6 Chocolte Starfish 48.5

In the end, I simply decided to take a small 'any2' bet with Sir Dan as banker from 10, 11 & 12. Paid $14.80 for 2 & 10 so not bad.

[Sportz]

In regards to ratings, I reckon if you have something that works for ya, you have to trust what it spits out at times, even tho they might seem a bit off kilter... those off kilter ratings can sometimes mean the difference between a profit and a loss..

As I said, I've only just started doing ratings regularly on midweek meetings, so I am a bit wary of what they come up with sometimes. Again in the last at Grafton, when I posted my tips, I stupidly went against my own ratings which were:

5 Final Objective 43.0
1 Ashbury 42.0
4 Barsareal 40.5
6 Miss Shinko 38.5
12 Bennelong 38
2 Merit Award 37.5

I'm definitely going to have to trust the ratings more in future.

[topsy99]

i once knew a tug boat captain who told me about his job.

often he would leave port in fog and steer by compass.
although he knew the compass was accurate it too a lot of commitment to hold the course as he would swear often that the compass was wrong.
the hardest thing he did was to hold to the compass's course rather than his own instincts.

sounds familiar doesnt it.

[Sportz]

Yep.

How's your punting going Topsy? Your method is like nothing else I've seen really, but you stick to it and trust it.

[topsy99]

going okay. longshots a bit scarce. got mooring's melody and makhtoum on saturday but other places bit tough.
prices a bit shorter.
got charnwood green and ballet society

had a profitable day. got nothing in adelaide and perth.
havent backed a winner in perth for a few weeks now.

rescuer and chenille prince were both listed horses but were short (actually missed chenille prince's race)

but had a profitable day.

actually had a good run since melbourne cup day.

last week even backed 3 in a row in hobart.

but i stick to the system and it delivers eventually although mooring's melody was a while coming on saturday.

someone here will ask how i could pick that.
there were 5 listed horses in the race two of who were short vanquished and salgado
jackman and beal street were a bit of a worry and the guy on tv suggested there was word around on mooring's melody.
the jockey on vanquished did the right thing and gave him many many lengths start and bobs your uncle.(thompson that is)

jockey's seem to ride funny but i suppose it works out.

[Sportz]

someone here will ask how i could pick that.


Someone also had Mooring's Melody in the tipping comp, so you weren't alone.