AFL Premiership markets

[jaffa39]

As much as we would all like to think that our sides have a flag chance, have a look at it seriously. Don't bet with your heart , bet with your head.

Honestly this last season there were only four chances from half way and they played off in the prelims. I left saints out after preseason victory as lacked real finals experience ( same for Geelong )and Backed, Lions, Port and Swans.

Previou too years I backed Pies, Lions and Port.

You must go though records, all winners of last 10 years have been in top four / five previous year.Just check them ou for your self. Sides who finish 7 -12 last year may improve . but to what 3 or 4, thats not winning flag.

Only danger to Port, Brisbane, Swans and Saints might be Eagles, but need more Goal kickers.

I follow pies but wont win till they buy a decent top ruckmen,

Jaffa

[Sportz]

You seem to have a slightly higher opinion of the Swans than many. As a Lions supporter, I know how damn well they play against us, but they seem to slip up against some of the other sides.

[mug punta]

I reckon Geelong is therabouts also.They actually have as good a midfield as anyone in the league. They smashed Brissie in the midfield in the Prelim but just didnt quite know how to win it.
Dockers can improve but can't win it, not enough gun forwards.
Saints, Geelong and Port are the three chances for mine. I think they have the best lists.
Brisbane will still be good, but remind me of Essendon when we lost to Brissie in 2001. We lost that aura of invincibility and other teams weren't as intimidated.
I cant see geelong, saints or power being intimidated by the Lions ever again.
Saints should be the biggest threat to everyone, after there poleaxing in the first final they played bloody good finals footy and will only be bigger and stronger this year. The $5 you can get about 'em now is incredible value.
Remember, it took the Kangaroos, Lions and Power a few years of losing to become truly great teams and I reckon they are on the verge of the best era we may ever see, if they can keep there list together!!

[Sportz]

Saints, Geelong and Port are the three chances for mine.

Yep. I agree there.

[Sportz]

Mug punta,

What about your mob? How do you reckon they'll go?

I'm thinking of backing the Bombers for the 8, because quite a few people are thinking that they're going to miss out this year and as a result, I reckon their odds will be pretty inviting. Even when they're not really a premiership threat, they still almost always make the finals. Going to think about it a bit longer though.

[DR RON]

I'll go out on a limb and nominate the demons as a roughy to make the top 4. Dont ask me why, its just one of those gut feelings.

[Sportz]

Ron,

It's an odd number year. ;)

[Betsy]

im not a long term punter but id take eagles and freo to make the finals, its pretty tough to win up at subiaco if your from the big V - that guarantees them a fair few games, then they just need to nab a few away games and there ya go

[Chuck]

bombers and demons to star this year

[discipline pays]

if you look at last ten years you would like port power, it seems that when a non victorian club goes premiers ( and unlocks secret to winning in melbourne ) the advantage of home state finals the following year and confidence gained leads to back to back flags. think adelaide crows and brisbane lions. so going by that logic power will be hard to toss.

Having said that, st kilda got within a whisker of beating them last year in prelim, and given an easier finals campaign they will be the danger.

as a betting propisition, am thinking about large bet on both teams at around 4.50 power, and 5.50 saints and sit back and watch both teams odds trim up as year goes by. that way if either team makes GF i would be able to lay off and collect, while if both teams make it even better !!

anyway good luck to all for season 2005

[jaffa39]

Hi guys,

If you wait till after the pre season cup, I nearly guarantee that you will get better odds both Port and Saints.

If Port fail in presason, people will say ah there goes the premiership hangover -no hunger needed anymore and saints could be better as some may write off as 1 year wonders. Hold your horses for a whil and you may be surprised.

Good luck in your bets but make sure your tip has 2 ruckmen or bye bye money.

Jaffa39

[mug punta]

Mug punta,

What about your mob? How do you reckon they'll go?

I'm thinking of backing the Bombers for the 8, because quite a few people are thinking that they're going to miss out this year and as a result, I reckon their odds will be pretty inviting. Even when they're not really a premiership threat, they still almost always make the finals. Going to think about it a bit longer though.


Personally, I wouldn't back us. We are rebuilding and heaps of kids will be playing this year. How good kids like Dyson, Stanton, Laycock,Winderlich,Bradley are we will know as the seson goes on, but rest assured they will be playing plenty of footy.
I guess the positive is anyside with Hird (who reports say is as fit and injury free as he's ever been), Lloyd and Fletcher will be pretty good if they can all stay on the park.
As for making the 8 we have a chance but I give us no hope of winning the flag. Sheedy does have a knack of getting the boys into September.
He has been at Essendon since 1981 and from memory we've only missed the finals 3 times, that may be slightly out but overall he's had a great record of making finals.
My long term big bet is for Gehrig to win the Coleman medal. i hope to get at least 5/2. I expect Lloyd to spend more time out at centre half forward this year amd Gehrig is almost unstoppable at telstra dome under the roof

[mug punta]

Hi guys,

If you wait till after the pre season cup, I nearly guarantee that you will get better odds both Port and Saints.

If Port fail in presason, people will say ah there goes the premiership hangover -no hunger needed anymore and saints could be better as some may write off as 1 year wonders. Hold your horses for a whil and you may be surprised.

Good luck in your bets but make sure your tip has 2 ruckmen or bye bye money.

Jaffa39


No one will think the Saints are one year wonders and they dont have one top class ruckmen let alone two and I still give them a huge hope of winning
the flag.
It's time to let the pain of Clarke Keating smashing the ball forward in both grand Finals go Jaffa.

[Mr ed]

I think the Sainters will be a mighty force this year. Great bunch of players who play well together, they are the ones to beat for mine.

[Searay]

I think the Saints will be extremley hard to beat given their promising year in
2004. They seem to gel well togethor and look like they really want to dig in for each other. Anything better than 5.00 will be getting me , no question.

REMEMBER- Think first before saying nothing.

[Rock Steady]

discipline pays,

Where can you get $4.50 Port and $5.50 St Kilda for the flag?


I have accounts with twelve sports books and the best I can get Port is $4.10 and St Kilda $5.00.

[jaffa39]

Rock Steady,

Hi mate,


Do you really want to back Saints at $ 5.50 now without knowing how they are going to go in ruck and also there centrehalf back and fullback spots need looking at early on.

Port I think will be even stronger as both Francou and Primus have played interclub practice matches and will add heaps if play full year.

Hope Saints do win flag as Nick is from my Gold Coast club where I have coached 2 other family members.

Ge a lot of people on here are thinking ( or hoping ) that Brisbane are going to crash out of the 8.

Gee, can any of you find a bookie with a decent price about that and I would gladly invest some of the $,000 I have won on them in 3 Grand finals and Port last year to say they will still be a big force.

Give some real reasons why they will fail. Keating is fit, Scott back to full fitness and Brennan will play full year and Bradshaw can play full forward.

I am a long term pies supporter for 39 yrs by the way. We can't win

Jaffa39

[Sportz]

I'm certainly not suggesting Brisbane will crash out of the 8. I just don't really think they can win.

If you guys want to test yourselves out and have a bit of fun, try this out:
http://www.allthestats.com/other/ladpredict.php

Simply click on the team names a certain number of times to predict certain margins. Go through each round of the season and it will come up with a ladder based on your predictions.

[Sportz]

Just quickly tried that ladder predictor out and I've got Brisbane coming in in 5th place, but for a large part of the season, they were actually outside the 8. I came up with Port Adelaide and St Kilda up the top from Geelong, Sydney, Brisbane, West Coast, Essendon and Fremantle. I'm going to wait a bit longer though and have a more concentrated go at it after the Wizard Cup when I know a bit more about the teams.

[rooburger]

as it happens every year,it always takes up to round 5 to 10 to get a good set on teams.
speculate only for me till then.
a friend of mine just keeps backing his team every week in all lines of betting and has a good return.
it helps when he supports the power and not the bulldogs i tell him.

good luck to all this year

[BJ]

Team Pl W L PF PA Pts Perc
St Kilda 22 19 3 2412 1768 76 136.4
Port Adel 22 16 6 2306 1874 64 123.0
Melbourne 22 15 7 2194 1986 60 110.4
Geelong 22 14 8 2224 1956 56 113.7
West Coast 22 14 8 2210 1970 56 112.1
Sydney 22 12 10 2102 2078 48 101.1
Fremantle 22 11 11 2074 2106 44 98.4
Carlton 22 11 11 2020 2160 44 93.5

W Bulldogs 22 11 11 1990 2190 44 90.8
Bris Lions 22 10 12 2122 2058 40 103.1
Essendon 21 10 11 1926 2064 40 93.3
Richmond 22 9 13 1964 2216 36 88.6
Hawthorn 22 8 14 1992 2188 32 91.0
Kangaroos 22 7 15 1962 2218 28 88.4
Adelaide 22 5 17 1938 2242 20 86.4
Collingwood 21 3 18 1814 2176 12 83.3

[moeee]

Team Pl W L PF PA Pts Perc

Collingwood 21 3 18 1814 2176 12 83.3

Are you feeling okay BJ.
Surely the Pies will win more games than they lose?
And I do feel they are entitled to play at least 22 games.

[BJ]

Don't know what happened.... Must have given up and not turned up for the last game.....

[Sportz]

I wouldn't blame them after winning only 3 of their first 21. :D

[BJ]

Obviously missed an Essendon/Collingwood match. I will give it to Essendon pushing them into 8th and Carlton out into 9th.....
These are the results from that link anyway.
I don't know about Brisbanes final position but I think the rest will be quite accurate. Look for big improvements from Bulldogs and Carlton.....

[jaffa39]

Mate, don't know what you are on mate but Carlton, Western Bulldogs and Melb should be swabbed by VRC steward Des Gleeson if they finish where you think.

Bulldogs are hopeless and have it on good authority it will be Grant last year, had enough of carrying club and leg still not the same.

Carltons forwards won't win enough as Favola and Whitnell will run too hold and plenty COLD during season.

Pies can't win comp but would like to get set anywhere if you no of a bookie that they wont be last or Brisbane to make 8


Cheers mate and good luck if having punt.


Jaffa 39

[Paddy]

West Coast might surprise. Already on track for a great season. Been blooding the youngins in the pre-season comp, and doing well.

[moeee]

West Coast might surprise. Already on track for a great season. Been blooding the youngins in the pre-season comp, and doing well.

Be a surprise if they don't surprise.
You musta just got out of gaol.
West Coast is favourite for the Wizard Cup and Judd won the Brownlow last year.

[Sportz]

I reckon the top 6 will probably be:
Port
St. Kilda
West Coast
Geelong
Brisbane
Sydney.

Then I'm having trouble working out 7th and 8th. It should be out of (in no particular order) Fremantle, Melbourne, Essendon, Carlton and Collingwood.

When going through the draw, I actually have Brisbane outside the top 8 for a large part of the first half of the season.

[rabbitz]

Sportz
There seems to a major delusion brewing nationally that Brisbane are in trouble and no hope this year
Now this could be because of the following
1.Lynch retired
2.Bad boy Jonathon out for first five rounds
3.Smooth Simon out for first three
I think they will finish first four
Everyone knows that injuries lost them the Grand final last year,taking nothing away from ports performance.
They are currently $6.50 to win premiership,out from $4 (sept 26,2004)
They will keep getting out because of missing key players from the first 5 rounds,then be full strength and then lookout.There are enough opportunities from then on to win,and remember you dont have to finish top 2 to win the comp.
Cheers

[moeee]

When going through the draw, I actually have Brisbane outside the top 8 for a large part of the first half of the season.

Don't know which footy fixture you're lookin' at.
I give 'em 8 out of the first 10.At least 7.
Surely they win the season opener?
Your pessimistic attitude regarding things close to you really needs work done on it Sportznut.

[rabbitz]

Don't know which footy fixture you're lookin' at.
I give 'em 8 out of the first 10.At least 7.
Surely they win the season opener?
Your pessimistic attitude regarding things close to you really needs work done on it Sportznut.


I reckon Sportz should move to adelaide
You tell him moeee

[Sportz]

I won't be tipping Brisbane against West Coast in either game this year and I won't be tipping them away to Sydney, Fremantle, Port Adelaide or St Kilda. I personally reckon the first game against St Kilda will be a struggle as will the home games against Port and Sydney.

By the way, I've got them only winning 6 out of the first 10, but I certainly realise it is possible that they can win about 7 or 8. When I worked out the tips, I thought there were a couple of 50/50 games early on and I put them both down as a loss. So after 5 rounds, I only had them on 1 win from 5. They finally snuck into the 8 about round 9.

[rabbitz]

Ive said it before and I 'll say it again Sportz has had a brain operation removing the emotional (lets see the lions win)part of his brain and it was replaced with a lets run down my own team etc part.
You mention 50/50 games so why have you decided the lions are 100% on the losing side of a coin flip.
Do all us Lions supporters a big favour and change teams,for everyone elses sake as well as your own
cheers
P.S.Last call for the train to Adelaide

[Sportz]

You mention 50/50 games so why have you decided the lions are 100% on the losing side of a coin flip.

No Lynch, no Brown, no Black and a couple of injuries. I think we'll be slow starters this year. One of those 2 games is against St Kilda who I think can make the Grand Final and the other game is against Sydney who have the wood on us and should have beaten us at the Gabba last year. Yes, I agree that when in doubt, I do tend to opt for the more pessimistic result. That's probably why I've decided on two losses in those games instead of 1 win/1 loss or 2 wins.

Do all us Lions supporters a big favour and change teams,for everyone elses sake as well as your own
Why should the fact that I'm a bit more pessimistic have any effect on other Brisbane Lions fans??? I've been this way for a while and the team seems to have done okay. :)

[rabbitz]

No Lynch, no Brown, no Black and a couple of injuries. I think we'll be slow starters this year. One of those 2 games is against St Kilda who I think can make the Grand Final and the other game is against Sydney who have the wood on us and should have beaten us at the Gabba last year. Yes, I agree that when in doubt, I do tend to opt for the more pessimistic result. That's probably why I've decided on two losses in those games instead of 1 win/1 loss or 2 wins.


Why should the fact that I'm a bit more pessimistic have any effect on other Brisbane Lions fans??? I've been this way for a while and the team seems to have done okay. :)

I think you and I both know that you were the sole cause of the Lions G Final defeat last year!!!!!

[Glenno]

Current prices for the 2005 AFL premiership (Colin Tidy's Sydney Sports Bet) are as follows:

Adelaide $45.00
Brisbane $6.75
Carlton $21.00
Collingwood $26.00
Essendon $34.00
Fremantle $38.00
Geelong $8.00
Hawthorn $101.00
Kangaroos $75.00
Melbourne $20.00
Port Adelaide $4.25
Richmond $75.00
St Kilda $4.75
Sydney $21.00
West Coast $6.75
Western Bulldogs $101.00

[moeee]

Sort of appreciate your input there Glenno,but I would prefer to see what you believe the market should be.

[Sportz]

Well, I'm still unsure about positions 7-11, but I've gone through the season and come up with this:

Team Pl W L PF PA Pts Perc
Port Adel 22 18 4 2356 1824 72 129.1
St Kilda 22 17 5 2320 1860 68 124.7
West Coast 22 17 5 2300 1880 68 122.3
Geelong 22 15 7 2218 1962 60 113.0
Bris Lions 22 14 8 2212 1968 56 112.3
Sydney 22 14 8 2202 1978 56 111.3
Carlton 22 12 10 2126 2054 48 103.5
Melbourne 22 11 11 2100 2080 44 100.9
--------------------------------------
Fremantle 22 10 12 2086 2094 40 99.6
Collingwood 22 10 12 2082 2098 40 99.2
Essendon 22 10 12 2082 2098 40 99.2
Adelaide 22 9 13 2060 2120 36 97.1
Kangaroos 22 8 14 1940 2240 32 86.6
W Bulldogs 22 6 16 1880 2300 24 81.7
Richmond 22 3 19 1760 2420 12 72.7
Hawthorn 22 2 20 1716 2464 8 69.6

So, for what it's worth, I've come up with a final set of ratings like this:
Port Adelaide 126
St Kilda 120
West Coast 117
Geelong 111
Brisbane 108
Sydney 108
Carlton 102
Melbourne 102
Fremantle 99
Collingwood 99
Essendon 99
Adelaide 96
Kangaroos 87
W.Bulldogs 84
Richmond 75
Hawthorn 72

Using those ratings, I've worked out a market like this:
Port Adelaide $3.20
St Kilda $5.60
West Coast $7.10
Geelong $11.40
Brisbane $16.00
Sydney $16.00
Carlton $32.00
Melbourne $32.00
Fremantle $40.00
Collingwood $40.00
Essendon $40.00
Adelaide $53.30
Kangaroos $106.70
W.Bulldogs $106.70
Richmond $320.00
Hawthorn $320.00

By the way Mo, Using the same little formula, I had a look at your ratings and came up with this market:
Port Adel $2.90
West Coast $6.40
Brisbane $8.00
Geelong $15.30
St Kilda $16.10
Sydney $17.00
Adelaide $29.00
Melbourne $32.20
Carlton $41.40
Collingwood $48.30
Essendon $48.30
Fremantle $58.00
Kangaroos $58.00
W.Bulldogs $96.70
Hawthorn $145.00
Richmond $290.00

Mo, have you worked out a market yourself yet and does it look anyhing like that?

[Sportz]

Word of warning though. To get those markets, I actually used the same sort of pricing formula that I use for horse racing, so I have no idea how well it'll work on Football. :D

[moeee]

W.Bulldogs $96.70
Hawthorn $145.00
Richmond $290.00

Mo, have you worked out a market yourself yet and does it look anyhing like that?

Not as yet Sportz,but I'll show you something tomorrow.
But I'm sure I would have these 3 teams at closer to 10 thousand to one!

[moeee]

Sportz
There seems to a major delusion brewing nationally that Brisbane are in trouble and no hope this year
Now this could be because of the following
1.Lynch retired
2.Bad boy Jonathon out for first five rounds
3.Smooth Simon out for first three
I think they will finish first four
Everyone knows that injuries lost them the Grand final last year,taking nothing away from ports performance.
They are currently $6.50 to win premiership,out from $4 (sept 26,2004)
They will keep getting out because of missing key players from the first 5 rounds,then be full strength and then lookout.There are enough opportunities from then on to win,and remember you dont have to finish top 2 to win the comp.
Cheers

This CAN'T have been written by Rabbitz!
It makes too much sense!

[Sportz]

Not as yet Sportz,but I'll show you something tomorrow.
But I'm sure I would have these 3 teams at closer to 10 thousand to one!

That was just to go through the motions of rating every single team Mo, and it was purely using the pricing formula that I have. Personally, I don't rate those teams any chance at all. My own opinion is something like this:

Port Adel $3.30
St Kilda $5.00
West Coast $6.50
Geelong $12.00
Brisbane $12.00
Sydney $20.00
Carlton $30.00
Melbourne $30.00
Fremantle $50.00
Collingwood $50.00
Essendon $50.00
Adelaide $100.00
Kangaroos $200.00
Bulldogs $500.00
Richmond $1000.00
Hawthorn $1000.00

[DR RON]

Sportz, which 2 games did you have Hawthorn winning?

[jaffa]

For some saints fans in earlier post to say that they are at the start of an era, get real. They have won 1 premiership and when they had Breen, Lawrence, Roberts, Ditterich, McIntosh, Payze, Cowboy Neale and others they were as good as team as now and made top finals quite regularly, but wait till they win 1 flag before talk of an era.

I am a magpie fan and definately not a port fan, but why with their talented list with Francou and Primus back - wouldn't they be firm favourites. With a bit of local inside knowledge on how they are shaping I also like Brissy still and believe that the Swans will have another big year with Jolly to help ball and a lot of their star players are injury free for once.

I am going to lay Saints on any betting market I can find to lay sides as still believe that defence is very suspect and that frasier won't have same impact and everyone will expect Nick to carry them.

Also Bombers are no hope, Lloyd only forward, no rucks, defence leaks like a sieve and Heard can't do everything.

After picking winner in 3 for 5 yrs and backing them, out go Saints --its Port, Swans or Lions for me.

[moeee]

Sportz, which 2 games did you have Hawthorn winning?

I reckon they can win 6 or 7 without surprising.
Be surprised if they win less than that!

[moeee]

With a bit of local inside knowledge on how they are shaping I also like Brissy still and believe that the Swans will have another big year with Jolly to help ball and a lot of their star players are injury free for once.



I predict a big year for Jaffa.Good luck son.
But how come Jolly gets big ,but Balls are small?

[BJ]

I don't beleive for a second that it is only the saints fans that beleive they are at the start of an era...... Check out the link from sportz 'Time Capsule'.
All but 1 of the Age 'experts' have tipped them for the premiership.....

If saints supporters aren't allowed to get excited about their immediate capabilities, then I question what is the point to supporting football.
Excitement is all about expectation......

[moeee]

Not as yet Sportz,but I'll show you something tomorrow.
But I'm sure I would have these 3 teams at closer to 10 thousand to one!

Spends 6 months throwing money away on the greyhounds and then tries to update his footy database 3 days before the season starts!

Sorry Sportz.I'll give you my prices before this round is over,hopefully.
But you'll get them!

[mug punta]

I don't beleive for a second that it is only the saints fans that beleive they are at the start of an era...... Check out the link from sportz 'Time Capsule'.
All but 1 of the Age 'experts' have tipped them for the premiership.....

If saints supporters aren't allowed to get excited about their immediate capabilities, then I question what is the point to supporting football.
Excitement is all about expectation......

Well said BJ!!

[moeee]

Spends 6 months throwing money away on the greyhounds and then tries to update his footy database 3 days before the season starts!

Sorry Sportz.I'll give you my prices before this round is over,hopefully.
But you'll get them!

Tomorrow my friend.
And I might also get you,if you choose to reveal,post your updated team ratings after round 1.

[Sportz]

Still a work in progress Mo, but this should be pretty close to the mark:

120 Port Adel
117 St Kilda
117 West Coast
111 Geelong
111 Brisbane
108 Sydney
105 Melbourne
105 Fremantle
96 Carlton
93 Adelaide
90 Collingwood
90 Essendon
90 Kangaroos
90 W. Bulldogs
72 Richmond
69 Hawthorn

Going through them, I've adjusted Port Adelaide down. Think they're still a bit rusty. Despite the loss, I was still impressed by St Kilda, but took 3 points off for no Reiwoldt. West Coast and Geelong both did much as I expected so they stay the same. Brisbane surprised me I must admit and I've increased their rating. Could have gone a few points higher but no Charman for two weeks. Sydney did as expected and Melbourne and Fremantle were both impressive enough to increase their rating.

[moeee]

Brisbane 115
Pt.Adel 110
West C'st 104
Geelong 99
Melbourne 96
St.Kilda 95
Sydney 94
Fremantle 91
Adelaide 89
Kangaroo 88
Carlton 86
Essendon 84
Coll'wood 79
Bulldogs 68
Hawthorn 56
Richmond 55

[moeee]

2005 Futures based on Sportnut ratings.

Footy Team - 8 - 4 - GF - Prem

Port Power 1.01 1.15 1.80 2.70
St Kilda ... 1.03 1.30 2.25 3.80
West Coast 1.05 1.40 2.75 5.20
Geelong ... 1.25 2.70 5.60 12
Sydney ... 1.25 2.50 6.10 15
Brisbane .. 1.50 4.20 8.50 20
Carlton .. 1.65 5.20 13.5 40
Melbourne. 2.10 8.90 20.0 50
Collingw'd 2.20 9.70 25.0 80
Essendon . 2.30 10.6 27.0 80
Fremantle. 2.75 16.0 40.0 100
Adelaide . 3.20 20.0 50.0 150
Kangaroos. 17.0 300. 1000 none
Bulldogs .. 22.0 500. 1000 none
Richmond . 100. none none none
Hawthorn . 250. none none none

Your ratings suggest that there are only 3 contenders this year,but you're formula assessed prices give chances to many no hopers.
Your personal prices are much closer but still somewhat generous with the top 3.
Even disregarding hindsight,a major error seems to have been made in Brisbanes assessed rating.Especially when it comes up with $1.50 to make the 8.

[Sportz]

Mo, after last year's GF, I made the judgement that 2004 had been Brisbane's last chance at the top and they were on the way down. I certainly made the judgement that they wouldn't be finishing ahead of Port Adelaide in this year's premiership. Well, I'm still sticking to that (for now).

Port Adelaide didn't start well, but I think they have a habit of slow starts. I remember a couple of years ago, they lost the first 2 matches and still won the minor premiership. Brisbane certainly went well against St Kilda, but remember St Kilda were leading before Reiwoldt went off and a 23 point win for the Lions against the Saints at the Gabba is nothing unusual considering past form at that ground.

Brisbane has a chance at AAMI stadium this week and if they win, I might have to make another adjustment, but for now I'm quite happy to have the teams this way:

Top Winning Chances
Port Adel
St Kilda
West Coast

Next Best Winning Chances
Brisbane
Geelong
Sydney

Good Top 8 Chances
Melbourne
Fremantle
Carlton

Rough Top 8 Chances
Collingwood
Essendon
Adelaide
W.Bulldogs
Kangaroos

Wooden Spoon Chances
Richmond
Hawthorn

[moeee]

My main concern is the final 8 prices.
That Brisbane be a $1.50 chance and Carlton be a $1.65
Both can make it but I know which of the 2 seems overs!

[moeee]

2005 Futures based on Sportnut ratings after Round-1.

Footy Team - 8 - 4 - GF - Prem

Port Power 1.05 1.50 2.40 4.00
West Coast 1.02 1.30 2.45 4.35
St Kilda . 1.07 1.60 2.80 5.00
Brisbane . 1.15 2.20 4.45 9.00
Geelong .. 1.17 2.25 4.50 9.20
Sydney ... 1.18 2.30 5.30 12.00
Fremantle. 1.35 3.75 8.55 20
Melbourne. 1.50 4.50 9.80 23

Carlton .. 2.85 18.0 45.0 125
Bulldogs . 5.00 44.0 125. 500
Adelaide . 5.65 66.0 125. 500
Kangaroos. 5.65 66.0 166. 660
Essendon . 7.05 66.0 200. 800
Collingw'd 8.40 128. 250. 1000
Richmond . 250. none none none
Hawthorn . 660. none none none

It seems the Final 8 pretty much picks itself although the actual order needs to be determined.
Perhaps Sportznut,you could sell your Carlton ticket to the highest bidder.

[Sportz]

I only had $10 on them Mo. I got a bit carried away during the Wizard Cup GF. Carlton was winning and because it wasn't a premiership game, the final 8 premiership betting was still left open. I thought they would probably shorten dramatically in the betting if they won the game, so I decided to just have a small bet on the 'overs'. My bigger bets for the 8 were on West Coast, Geelong and Sydney and they've all started with wins so not too bad there.

[Sportz]

Yeah Mo. I think I can forget about that $10 bet. Looks like they're probably going to lose to Essendon. At the moment they're behind by 28 points despite having 2 more scoring shots!!! Seriously, teams just don't kick 15 goals 3 behinds like the Bombers have tonight.

[Sportz]

.....then again.

Never in doubt. :D

[moeee]

Yes it was only $10,but I really can't see which team can drop out.
Surely not Fremantle?.Maybe,but I think not.
I lost too much last year and will stay out a bit longer.

[Sportz]

Yeah, I agree. Before the first round, I thought I had the first 6 pretty settled and I was just unsure of positions 7 & 8. Well, after Rd1, I reckon the other 2 positions now look reasonably clear cut too. On my ratings, I have the top 8 teams clearly ahead of the rest. Of the other 8 teams, I reckon Carlton are possibly the best chance of getting in there though.

[moeee]

Sportz?
Would you like me to run your latest ratings through my futures program?

[Sportz]

120 Port Adel
117 St Kilda
117 West Coast
114 Brisbane
111 Geelong
108 Melbourne
105 Sydney
105 Fremantle
99 Carlton
96 Adelaide
96 Kangaroos
90 Essendon
87 W.Bulldogs
84 Collingwood
78 Richmond
66 Hawthorn

[moeee]

2005 Futures based on Sportnut ratings after Round-2.

Footy Team - 8 - 4 - GF - Prem

Port Power 1.05 1.45 2.40 4.05
West Coast 1.02 1.25 2.45 4.35
St Kilda . 1.05 1.55 2.75 4.95
Brisbane . 1.15 2.05 3.80 7.30
Geelong .. 1.25 2.75 5.25 11
Melbourne. 1.26 2.80 6.25 14
Sydney ... 1.55 4.85 10.7 25
Fremantle. 1.55 5.10 11.0 25

Carlton .. 2.00 9.00 23.0 66
Kangaroos. 2.30 11.5 33.0 100
Adelaide . 3.30 22.0 55.0 160
Bulldogs . 13.5 150. 550. none
Essendon . 66.0 none none none
Collingw'd none none none none
Richmond . 60.0 none none none
Hawthorn . none none none none

A week is a long time in football.
Final 8 settled?.And then there were 11.
By the way Sportznut,West Coast come up at 7-4 to finish at the top of the ladder.

[Sportz]

A week is a long time in football.


You got that right!!!

I can't believe it. My ratings are all over the shop!!! Never seen so much change from one week to the next. Either I had my pre-season ratings all wrong (very likely) or else some teams are playing way above themselves and will eventually come back down to earth. I guess you often tend to get upset results for the first 4 weeks of the comp and then it seems to settle down. Even so, some of the results have stunned me.

West Coast are exactly where I thought they'd be. They haven't been brilliant so far but they've got 3 wins. Melbourne have been very impressive, but could they actually win it???? Perhaps they could. The GF's played on their home ground and if they're playing against an interstate team that will be an advantage.

I certainly didn't expect St Kilda and Port Adelaide to be as disappointing as they have been. They've both gone down sharply in my ratings. I didn't think St Kilda would lose more than maybe one game at the Dome all year but they've already lost their first!!! Geelong have also been a bit disappointing to me, but the margin in the Melbourne game was a bit misleading because of the Cats woeful kicking, so I haven't given up on them.

As I suggested last week, the Kangaroos have a tendancy to start off very well and gradually fall down the ladder later on, so despite their 3 wins, I still don't know about them even making the 8. As for Adelaide against Port, I'm stunned. I certainly thought Adelaide might win it, but not by that margin. They definitely have the talent there. Sydney did as I suspected they may do against Brisbane, but again it's hard to see Sydney winning the title. And I still think Brisbane just aren't the same force that they were 2001-2004, but with a couple of the other favoured sides not doing well, they must still be given a good chance. Who knows.

Ratings after Rd3
(pre-season ratings in brackets)

West Coast 117 (117)
Melbourne 114 (102)
Port Adel 111 (126)
St Kilda 108 (120)
Brisbane 108 (108)
Sydney 108 (108)
Geelong 105 (111)
Fremantle 105 (99)
Adelaide 105 (96)
Kangaroos 102 (87)
Carlton 90 (102)
Essendon 90 (99)
Collingwood 90 (99)
Richmond 81 (75)
W.Bulldogs 81 (84)
Hawthorn 72 (72)

[rabbitz]

Kangaroos at $1.70 to make eight (Unitab)
Port adelaide out to $6 to win flag
Hawthorn $1.60 for spoon
Lets see how these change(posted 11/4/05)

[marko]

[QUOTE=Sportz]You got that right!!!

As I suggested last week, the Kangaroos have a tendancy to start off very well and gradually fall down the ladder later on, so despite their 3 wins, I still don't know about them even making the 8.






At first I was with you on that opinion but Ive just looked at the draw for the next few rounds and it shows the following;

round 4 Kangas v Collingwood MCG
round 5 Kangas v Hawthorn MCG
round 6 Adelaide V Kangas AAMI
round 7 Port Adl v Kangas AAMI
round 8 Kangas v West Bull TD

I'd expect the Roos to win (on current form) at least 3 maybe 4 out of these next 5.That could set them up in the 8 pretty well.

I know they could fall in a heap but I reckon Laidley is showing the football ball world how good a coach he is

[moeee]

[QUOTE=Sportz]
I know they could fall in a heap but I reckon Laidley is showing the football ball world how good a coach he is

Well done Marko!
Not only a top tipster,but a top comedian as well!

[moeee]

2005 Futures based on Sportnut ratings after Round-3.

Footy Team - 8 - 4 - GF - Prem

West Coast 1.01 1.10 2.05 3.45
Melbourne. 1.05 1.40 2.70 4.85
Sydney ... 1.20 2.30 4.65 9.45
Port Power 1.30 2.80 4.85 9.80
St Kilda . 1.45 3.65 6.65 13.85
Brisbane . 1.45 3.90 6.90 14.40
Adelaide . 1.40 3.40 7.40 16.65
Kangaroos. 1.30 2.80 7.70 20

Geelong .. 1.60 4.80 9.40 20
Fremantle. 1.75 5.90 10.65 25
Carlton .. 7.00 50.0 160. 500
Collingw'd 9.40 100. 250. 800
Richmond . 14.0 100. 660. none
Essendon . 20.0 none none none
Bulldogs . 66.0 none none none
Hawthorn . none none none none

Sportznut.
The problem with your ratings is they are too biased regarding current form.
That is fine when assessing next weeks round,but for the futures,it penalizes teams that will begin to peak and rewards teams that will start bottoming out.
I believe Melbourne are playing above themselves and cannot keep playing at this quality for the entire season.And Port Power will improve greatly when a couple of players return.
Don't judge Carlton on last weeks round.You don't win the Wizard Cup because you are ordinary.
Not much longer till the colourful Black and Brown return.Then you will see that you have seriously underrated the Lions.

West Coast come up at Evens to finish at the top of the ladder,with Melbourne at 7-2.

[marko]

How come u rate the kangaroos @$11+ to make top4 and $100 to win flag after round 2 then change to under $3 for top4 and $20 to win flag after round 3 .( haven't looked at any other teams yet).I know a weeks a long time in football but...........

[Sportz]

Sorry Mo, I didn't know you wanted 'season' ratings. Those are my week to week ratings, not necessarily how I think the teams will end up. I notice you seem to have a sort of formula you're using which is weighting in favour of teams sitting higher on the ladder. That probably doesn't work well with the ratings I've been posting, because they are based to a large degree on current form anyway.

If you want my updated 'season' ratings, it looks more like this:

Port Adel 120
West Coast 117
St Kilda 114
Brisbane 111
Melbourne 111
Geelong 108
Sydney 108
Adelaide 99
Fremantle 99
Carlton 96
Collingwood 96
Essendon 96
Kangaroos 96
Richmond 81
W.Bulldogs 81
Hawthorn 72

[jaffa39]

For a lot of you early movers on taking St Kilda and teams like Hawthorne and richmond, who bagged my comments about them.
How r they going.

Is Brisbane finished, I don't think so. I said Swans are one of my 3 teams to win and got rubbished.. See how many visiting teams win in Brisbane this year and Ports Derby loss will mean nothing when they win next 3 games.

West coast don't have enough good experienced key forwards or defenders to finish in top 4. Once away from WA, lets see how they go, fell in in ade and haven't done anything spectatcular at home either.

[Sportz]

I said Swans are one of my 3 teams to win and got rubbished.. See how many visiting teams win in Brisbane this year

There's not necessarily any correlation between the two. Sydney play damn well against Brisbane these days, better than any team except perhaps West Coast. If Jason Ball hadn't missed that shot from straight in front last year, it would have been 3 straight wins for Sydney IN Brisbane.

[moeee]

How come u rate the kangaroos @$11+ to make top4 and $100 to win flag after round 2 then change to under $3 for top4 and $20 to win flag after round 3 .( haven't looked at any other teams yet).I know a weeks a long time in football but...........

Because their rating has gone up 6 points and most of the expected high rollers have dropped about 6 points.
Which in mathematics comes up as a 12 point improvement!

[Rock Steady]

What is the point of doing ratings AFTER the horse has bolted?
It's like the punter who wants the 2/1 AFTER the horse has firmed into EVENS. Too late mate!

[moeee]

What is the point of doing ratings AFTER the horse has bolted?
It's like the punter who wants the 2/1 AFTER the horse has firmed into EVENS. Too late mate!

I think you are confused Rocksteady.
Nothing late about the ratings in any field.After every run you update them.
No good using last years ratings.

[Sportz]

Rock,

I adjust the ratings after each week to use on the following week's matches.

For example, last night's match:
Kangaroos rated on 102, Collingwood rated on 90, No home ground advantage bonus, Collingwood head to head bonus of 6 points
Predicted final margin: Kangaroos by 6 points

If I had simply used the same ratings that I had at the start of the season, I would have had Collingwood coming out on top.

[Sportz]

St Kilda 23 13 151
Melbourne 15 14 104

That's more like it!

[rabbitz]

Kangaroos at $1.70 to make eight (Unitab)
Port adelaide out to $6 to win flag
Hawthorn $1.60 for spoon
Lets see how these change(posted 11/4/05)

Kangaroos at $1.45 to make eight(-25c)
Port adelaide out to $7.50 to win flag(+$1.50)
Hawthorn $2.50 for spoon(+90c)(18/4/05)

[Sportz]

So after 5 rounds, I only had them on 1 win from 5. They finally snuck into the 8 about round 9.

To Rabbitz and Moeee. Still think I've under-rated Brisbane? ;)

I must admit that I've been a bit off in my ratings of some teams this year, but certainly not Brisbane. They've been one team that I've been pretty much spot on with. As for them sneaking into the 8 in Round 9, I don't know about that now.

[rabbitz]

Most open comp in years,still not convinced about west coast or Kangas
Port and swans are no chance,I like Melbourne,St kilda,Geelong,even those Bulldogs are going OK

[Chuck]

From someone who has watched 1 AFL game in his life (that of the swans vs brisbane this year...quite good too) I think the Melbourne Demons will win

[Rock Steady]

From someone who has watched 1 AFL game in his life (that of the swans vs brisbane this year...quite good too) I think the Melbourne Demons will win

How do you think the Demons will win if you've never seen them play????

[Rock Steady]

I wouldn't take 20/1 the Kangaroos to win the Flag on what I've seen so far this year. I was at the Gabba today and I would rate West Coast in a different class to North Melbourne. The pros took $26 West Coast Eagles and $31 Melbourne at the start of the season and are looking very comfortable with those plays. West Coast are an absolute balckout for most internet bookmakers as well as Sportstab and Tabcorp.

[moeee]

To Rabbitz and Moeee. Still think I've under-rated Brisbane? ;)


NO!
But can I tell you something before you get too cocky?
Carlton in 1995 were the best outfit around and won 20 games and the Premiership.
The 2 games they lost were consecutive games against Fitzroy and at that time lowly Sydney.

[Rock Steady]

NO!
But can I tell you something before you get too cocky?
Carlton in 1995 were the best outfit around and won 20 games and the Premiership.
The 2 games they lost were consecutive games against Fitzroy and at that time lowly Sydney.

Where's the logic in that statement? Moeee, Have you ever heard of the Kelly Criterion? That will explain how I stake and how "thebookie" stakes.
The bigger the overlay, the bigger the bet. Pretty simple really. Google "Kelly Criterion" and it will explain it all very simply.

[Sportz]

Not getting cocky, because as I said, I've misjudged a few other teams badly. Would much rather have got them right and been horribly wrong about Brisbane.

[Rock Steady]

Don't worry about moeee Sportz. He likes a little niggle to see if you take the bait.

[moeee]

Where's the logic in that statement? Moeee, Have you ever heard of the Kelly Criterion? That will explain how I stake and how "thebookie" stakes.
The bigger the overlay, the bigger the bet. Pretty simple really. Google "Kelly Criterion" and it will explain it all very simply.
Can't see what you're on about Rocksteady.
I was answering Sportz' query regarding his assessment of Brisbane.

[Chuck]

How do you think the Demons will win if you've never seen them play????

do you live to criticise, Primo? It was an all out guess...isn't that allowed? ;)

[moeee]

do you live to criticise, Primo? It was an all out guess...isn't that allowed? ;)

I'm with you Chuckie.
I never seen Chrissy Judd play,but it didn't stop me taking the 600 to a hundred last years Brownlow!

[rabbitz]

do you live to criticise, Primo? It was an all out guess...isn't that allowed? ;)

welcome back PRIMO hows the czar,hows the soccer

[Rock Steady]

do you live to criticise, Primo? It was an all out guess...isn't that allowed? ;)

How is that question a criticism? I simply asked a pretty simple question.

[Rock Steady]

I'm with you Chuckie.
I never seen Chrissy Judd play,but it didn't stop me taking the 600 to a hundred last years Brownlow!

That would right moeee,
Still taking "unders". You are kidding!!! Now I know why you gave up the dogs. That requires discipline and imagination.

[moeee]

That would right moeee,
Still taking "unders". You are kidding!!! Now I know why you gave up the dogs. That requires discipline and imagination.
Still leaping before you looking Rocksteady.
How can 6 to 1 possibly be unders when he saluted the judge?

[Sportz]

......and he won it like an odds-on shot. I'd say that the people who took 'unders' were those on Tredrea and Reiwoldt.

[Rock Steady]

Still leaping before you looking Rocksteady.
How can 6 to 1 possibly be unders when he saluted the judge?

33/1 was bet so that's why your price was "unders". You seem to think that "any price a winner" is the way to go. I'm afraid you need more than that.

[moeee]

33/1 was bet so that's why your price was "unders". You seem to think that "any price a winner" is the way to go. I'm afraid you need more than that.
Like talking to a brick wall!
Congratulations on Collingwood last week.
I backed them this week and got nearly 5 1/2 to one.
Is that unders?

[Sportz]

That 33/1 was during the season when he could have easily got injured or suspended. I think I'd rather take 6/1 at season's end when that isn't a problem and you know all the form.

[moeee]

Thanks Sportznut.
I'm getting a gut feeling regarding Geelong and the premiership mainly because they are improving and the 2 favoured teams have peaked.
But I think the $6 or so on offer is huge not value at the minute.

[mug punta]

The only value re the flag at the minute is the Saints at $4.50 and Power at $13.
The only other hopes of winning the flag in my opinion are WCE, Melb, and the Cats and they are all unders.
Have to agree that relative to the end of season $6 was a handy price on Juddy and gee the Gehrig double last year was tasty!!!!!!!!

[Rock Steady]

Like talking to a brick wall!
Congratulations on Collingwood last week.
I backed them this week and got nearly 5 1/2 to one.
Is that unders?

It sure is "unders" when I rate them $7+.

[Rock Steady]

Like talking to a brick wall!
Congratulations on Collingwood last week.
I backed them this week and got nearly 5 1/2 to one.
Is that unders?

No need to congratulate me on Collingwood last week. Look at the previous week. The $ in the pocket at the end of each season is what counts moeee and if you think one losing bet on one particular weekend matters then you have absolutely no idea. Your mug punter status is alive and well.

Have you any idea of the Kelly Criterion? Probably not. Have a read - you just might learn something about professional staking.

[moeee]

Have you any idea of the Kelly Criterion? Probably not. Have a read - you just might learn something about professional staking.

Appreciate your edumacation pointers Rocksteady,but being a mathematician extraordinaire,am actually familiar with Kelly's methods.
And I bet to chances.
If I believe a selection is a 40% chance then I will back it as though it was,whether 4 to 1 is available or 40 to 1.
I do not increase the size of my stake because it drifted out a number of points.
I choose to bet only if I can get a certain percentage above my price.
In the case of the Magpies,I assess them as a 40% chance and will accept a minimum of 29%.
The size of my bet is independant of external factors and is only related to making an overall profit of 15% in the long run.
Any extra odds over my assessment is a bonus.

[Sportz]

The only value re the flag at the minute is the Saints at $4.50 and Power at $13.


Port are a real worry at the moment. What's going on there???

[rabbitz]

Yeh,Im very depressed about the port power,so sad
he he he ha haha ho ho ho
Boo Hoo

[rabbitz]

Premiership Markets

SEPTEMBER 26,2004
Port $3.65 now $14
Brisbane $4 now $7.50
St kilda $5 now $4
Geelong $10 now $6.50
West Coast $13 now $4
Sydney $17 now $35
Melbourne $21 now $8
Essendon $21 now $51
Collingwood $21 now $81
Freo $35 now $28
Adelaide $35 now $21
Carton $51 now $41
Richmond $61 now $41
Kangas $61 now $28
Hawks $71 now $151
Western Bulldogs $101 now $151
(UNITAB)

Cheers

[Sportz]

Port Adelaide are playing at home this week against the Kangaroos and they've been put up as favourites. You'd normally think it might be a good opportunity for the Power to get back on track, but amazingly, the Roos have won 10 of their 11 clashes!

[mug punta]

Port are a real worry at the moment. What's going on there???

I agree, they just aren't putting it together at the moment, but, they are still VALUE!!
They are one of the few teams that have the list to win it and that is the key.
I really think West Coast in particular are massive unders. The GF is 5 MONTHS away. They are the best team at the moment, but the Saints were at this stage last year also.
I still have huge ? marks over there key forwards.
I still feel that the SAINTS AND POWER are the best value re flag betting at this stage of proceedings.

[Sportz]

I hope you're right. My futures bets are looking a bit sick. :(

[mug punta]

Intersted to see the Power are now back into $8 after you could have got $18 before the weekend.

Interested to hear others opinions about Freo.
I know they only beat the hapless Pies, but, im really impressed with there change in attitude.
Connoly has got Farmer and Medhurst both doing team orientated things and McPharlin has made a huge difference to there structure up forward.
There midfield is as good as any in the comp and there backline is unheralded but bloody skilful. Minor query on there lack of height back there, but I guess Polak has to come back into the side still.
They reminded me on the weekend of Brisbane in 2001. I remember they got belted by the Blues at Princess Park and it forced them to be very honest with one another and they started there era therafter.

Getting flogged by the Tigers a couple of weeks ago may be the best thing that has ever happened to the club.
They are currently $18 and I reckon thay will end up much shorter than that within the next few weeks.

[Sportz]

Was amazed at the people willing to jump back on the Lions after they whipped Essendon. That game proved nothing really except that Brown's a pretty handy player and Essendon are Brisbane's bunnies at the moment. It's still early days for Port too, but I think there maybe more room for improvement with them than Brisbane. As for Fremantle, it's interesting to note that a couple of weeks ago, I think they were 7th favourites to make the 8, but 11th favourites to win the premiership. Obviously the bookies thought that they would win enough matches at Subiaco to scrape into the finals, but they weren't good enough in Melbourne to go any further. I must admit I was amazed that they were able to beat Melbourne at the MCG, so perhaps you're right. Maybe that thumping by Richmond has really started them up. Also impressed by Geelong. They appear to be building a strong all round team.

Ahh, by the way Mug Punta, it's 'their midfield', 'their change in attitude', 'their lack of height' etc etc. A bit nitpicky I know, but I find it just a little irritating when people get their theres and theirs mixed up. :D

[rabbitz]

Was amazed at the people willing to jump back on the Lions after they whipped Essendon. That game proved nothing really except that Brown's a pretty handy player and Essendon are Brisbane's bunnies at the moment. It's still early days for Port too, but I think there maybe more room for improvement with them than Brisbane. As for Fremantle, it's interesting to note that a couple of weeks ago, I think they were 7th favourites to make the 8, but 11th favourites to win the premiership. Obviously the bookies thought that they would win enough matches at Subiaco to scrape into the finals, but they weren't good enough in Melbourne to go any further. I must admit I was amazed that they were able to beat Melbourne at the MCG, so perhaps you're right. Maybe that thumping by Richmond has really started them up. Also impressed by Geelong. They appear to be building a strong all round team.

Ahh, by the way Mug Punta, it's 'their midfield', 'their change in attitude', 'their lack of height' etc etc. A bit nitpicky I know, but I find it just a little irritating when people get their theres and theirs mixed up. :D

There,They're Sportz!

[Sportz]

:D

[Floydyboy]

Cmon Sportz get a life I seen ya do this to someone last year because they to dared to put an apostrophy in Bronco's ...Next youll be runnin round with a red pencil writing "see me" at the bottom of offenders threads

If you got a Fetish just go to the bloody news groups :) :) :)

[mug punta]

NO, thats fair enuf!! OOhh was that annoying as well!!
Nah thats ok, by the way though Sportz, whilst we are handing out dictation lessons it's weird, not wierd!!!!

[Sportz]

Did I put Wierd? Sorry about that. That's weird. ;)

Sorry Floydyboy. If someone just makes a typo or a little spelling mistake, then that's fine, but what I do find a bit irritating are the sort of mistakes that are unfortunately becoming common usage these days. Things like mixing up words like there & their or too & to. Also sticking apostrophes in when they're totally unnecessary like Bronco's. Another one is when people say I should OF done this instead of I should HAVE done this.

Sorry to be so nitpicky. Now I've said that, I'll keep quiet about it from now on. :o

[Chuck]

me fail english? Thats unpossible!

[Floydyboy]

Ha Ha
My Uncles got a spelling fetish Used to annoy the tripe out of him when Id send him emails in computer shorthand
Actually I used to be a reasonable speller until I started using ICQ about 8 years ago ..but then I lost the plot in fact I thought apostrophe didnt have y on the end of it but my girlie said it did so I didnt argue and I was too bloody lazy to use the dropdown menu to find out

[BJ]

Did I put Wierd? Sorry about that. That's weird. ;)

Sorry Floydyboy. If someone just makes a typo or a little spelling mistake, then that's fine, but what I do find a bit irritating are the sort of mistakes that are unfortunately becoming common usage these days. Things like mixing up words like there & their or too & to. Also sticking apostrophes in when they're totally unnecessary like Bronco's. Another one is when people say I should OF done this instead of I should HAVE done this.

Sorry to be so nitpicky. Now I've said that, I'll keep quiet about it from now on. :o

Sorry to back you up Sportz... But I also have a problem with spelling... (Although I do not have a problem with multiple full stops................)

My 1 confusion has been the point you picked up on.... Should OF been or should HAVE been... No matter how many times I went over in my head, I couldn't work it out.... I will remember now....

Please don't stop correcting people. They need to know. Please do not worry about offending people that are offending the English language....

[Sportz]

It is definitely 'could have', 'should have', 'would have', NOT 'could of', 'should of', 'would of'. The second version is simply a mistake which has unfortunately crept into the English language and become quite common.

The same thing with apostrophes. For some reason, people continue to stick them in words when they aren't necessary. They seem to think that to make a plural version of a word, you have to put 's on the end. (like the example Floydyboy gave of Bronco's) For the life of me, I can't work out how that one started, but it's pretty common.

I certainly don't mean to be critical of anyone. Like the situation I referred to with 'there' and 'their', these are simply mistakes that have become more common over the years, because people didn't get picked up on them. I fear for what the English language is going to look like in the future after this damn text messaging craze.

[Sportz]

Anyway, I think I'd better get back onto the topic of the thread.

I went through four of the bookmakers' markets (Tab Sportsbet, IAS, Sportodds & Sportingbet) and these were the best odds I found for each team for the premiership:

WEST COAST $3.75 (Tab Sportsbet, Sportingbet)
ST KILDA $5.00 (Tab Sportsbet, IAS)
GEELONG $5.50 (Tab Sportsbet, IAS, Sportodds)
MELBOURNE $8.00 (Tab Sportsbet, IAS, Sportodds, Sportingbet)
PORT ADELAIDE $9.00 (IAS, Sportodds, Sportingbet)
BRISBANE LIONS $12.00 (Sportodds)
FREMANTLE $21.00 (Sportodds, Sportingbet)
RICHMOND $26.00 (IAS, Sportodds, Sportingbet)
ADELAIDE $28.00 (Tab Sportsbet)
SYDNEY $41.00 (Sportingbet)
KANGAROOS $67.00 (Sportodds)
CARLTON $101.00 (IAS, Sportodds)
WESTERN BULLDOGS $101.00 (Tab Sportsbet, Sportingbet)
ESSENDON $126.00 (Sportingbet)
COLLINGWOOD $251.00 (Sportingbet)
HAWTHORN $501.00 (Sportodds)

[moeee]

No wonder it's so hard to win Sportznut,when the best odds on all markets tallies to over 115%.
And I believe should of is derived from should've.

[Sportz]

Rabbitz,

I notice Gary Ablett has had a couple of blinders the last 2 weeks. Back into $35 now. Giving you a good run for your money. Certainly has more chance of winning than Judd. :)

[rabbitz]

Rabbitz,

I notice Gary Ablett has had a couple of blinders the last 2 weeks. Back into $35 now. Giving you a good run for your money. Certainly has more chance of winning than Judd. :)

Yeah I had noticed,That $61 is looking good,and its only $5 i had on him
cheers

[Sportz]

I must say that Geelong are looking better and better each week.

[Chuck]

Demons for the title!

[Macca]

Demons for the title!
Have you still not seen Melbourne play?
It was you that picked the Demons to win the flag without actually ever seeing them kick a football.
Let's get some logical discussion on these forums fellas. Everyone allowed to have an opinion but how about some reasons?
Nothing I have seen Melbourne do this year inspires any confidence in thinking they can win the title. Defense needs to tighten up a fair bit. Will probably make the finals but not Top 4. Current price of $14 is under the odds. At $31 I might consider them but nothing less.

[Mr. Logic]

Let's get some logical discussion on these forums fellas. Everyone allowed to have an opinion but how about some reasons?

It's the mug punter horse racing mentality. Have a look at the tips on the racing forum. Everyone gives their tips, but you'd be lucky if 5% could explain why they tipped one horse over another as the best bet in a race.

[mug punta]

I agree. I always state my case why I think somethings a good bet. Granted Ive been right only around 50% of the time, but I would like to hear others opinions on why they like certain teams.

[Macca]

It's the mug punter horse racing mentality. Have a look at the tips on the racing forum. Everyone gives their tips, but you'd be lucky if 5% could explain why they tipped one horse over another as the best bet in a race.
Couldn't agree more Mr Logic. I just wish they would stay on the Racing forum and leave this thread for those that are serious about winning on AFL. If I wanted cheap uninformed opinions I'd go down to the local on Friday afternoon.

[Moderator 3]

If someone wants to post a tip without giving any justification for it they are welcome to do that.

However, for the forum to have meaningful discussion about games we would hope posters would be able to do a bit more than just post selections to win in two team contests.

Please also note personal abuse is not acceptable.

[Macca]

Why don't you think about having a forum for "tips" only. That way, the other forums will not be cluttered up with "tips".

I see Betsy is trying to start a tipping comp on the Gambling forum now.

[rabbitz]

Wonder what the bookies will do with the market after st Kilda and Geelong lost and brisbane and port adelaide won
Wonder if that bloke who took brisbane to make the eight at $1.14($50000)
is feeling better today
Sportz I am awaiting your response,it will go something like this
Rabbitz, just because Brisbane won don't think........blah blah blah....you fill in the rest
Cheers

[rabbitz]

Latest Betting (sportodds)

West Coast $3(unders considering MCG record)
Melbourne $5(good chance)
Geelong $5.5(pull their finger back out)
saints $6(as above)
Adelaide $14(who knows)
Port $14(one swallow don't make a summer)
BRISBANE LIONS $16(not allowed to comment)
Richmond $31(no brown,no flag)
Freo $34(will be depressed for months after last game)
Sydney $34(no chance)
Collingwood $41(value ++)
Dogs $81(no)
Essendon $101(no)
Hawks $126(early promise but no cigar)
Kangas $141(see above)
Carlton $1001(one cup only this year)

[mug punta]

Im taking a longterm double tommorow for G Train to win Coleman and Saints to win the flag. It's around $25 and looks value at that price for mine,

[moeee]

Im taking a longterm double tommorow for G Train to win Coleman and Saints to win the flag. It's around $25 and looks value at that price for mine,
I'd like you to go back and search out every time I've bagged you mugsy.
I believe the score is about 9 to 1 in my favour.
St.Kilda won't win the flag,and are terrible value.
Only bloke missing is Aaron Hamill and even with him,they won't play any better.
They blew it last year!

[Sportz]

Wonder if that bloke who took brisbane to make the eight at $1.14($50000)
is feeling better today
Sportz I am awaiting your response,it will go something like this
Rabbitz, just because Brisbane won don't think........blah blah blah....you fill in the rest


No Rabbitz, I'm going to say that they do still have some chance.

Normally, a side in their position (4 wins/7 losses) would be little or no chance, but they are being helped dramatically by the totally inconsistent form of some of the other teams, particularly St Kilda and Fremantle. As badly as the Lions have been playing, they're only 1 win and % out of the 8. A team with their skill could make that up. It looks like you'll only need 11 wins and % or 11 wins and a draw (Port Adel?) to make the finals.

Having said that, I still don't think that punter would be feeling too good.

[rabbitz]

Long way to go sportz,but dont throw that port adelaide ticket away just yet
cheers

[Sportz]

:)

Yeah, pretty good win, but geez Hawthorn were PATHETIC. The way they play must be so damn frustrating for their fans!

[mug punta]

I told you not to write off Port. they are looking dangerous.
Lions were awesome as well but I still dont think they can win the flag.
Im going to start taking West Coast gf quinellas. They are definitely going to get 2 home finals and be very hard to beat even if there forward line is stilll questionable.
My Coleman- Flag prediction looks great value at 25-1 seeing as Gehrig is now odds on to win the Coleman.

[moeee]

My Coleman- Flag prediction looks great value at 25-1 seeing as Gehrig is now odds on to win the Coleman.
Last time I lokked Mark Williams was odds-on.
Maybe I should buy the paper more often.
Don't leave the Cats out of your Quinellas!

[rabbitz]

JULY 4 (Centrebet)

West Coast eagles $2.75
Brisbane lions $6.50
Adelaide Crows $8
Geelong $8
St kilda Saints $8
port Adelaide pretenders $10
Melbourne demons $11
Collingwood and the rest $34 and over

[Sportz]

For some reason, I just have a gut feeling that Port Adelaide aren't one of your favourite teams. Not quite sure why I think that. :D

[rabbitz]

I hate them,their coach is an idiot,their players are all idiots,their fans are all idiots,they promise so much and deliver so little.They are like freo,you never know what to do ,back em they lose ,dont back they win.You watch this week Port will be heavily backed because they are at home and Melbourne will belt them or theyll drift in the market and then belt Melbourne.
You want to talk about a team peaking it s Port adelaide.they only won the G final because the lions had injuries all over the park and Port were fresh. I cant wait till the come to the gabba,it will make the lions games against Geelong and melbourne look like close ones.They think that 117 point loss to Wcoast was bad ,we'll see.
Hope I haven't offended any idiots from port adelaide
Cheers
P.S. Dear management ,most of the above was said with my tongue firmly planted in my cheek.Port are really a fine outfit and so are their fans.bless their flannnelette shirts and desert boots

[rabbitz]

West Coast might surprise. Already on track for a great season. Been blooding the youngins in the pre-season comp, and doing well.

Ah that Paddy was a genius ,wasn't he
Where are ya paddy?

[iamcool]

Ca'rn the powerhttp://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon6.gif