Racing Systems

[Equine Investor]

Well, here goes...

In any sytem of selection many people leave out factors which of course cannot be rated.
Knowledge is power...
How many times have you seen the form of horse A is clearly better than horse B. And horse B is backed into favourite and duly salutes the judge?
No horse B is not on steroids and they didn't pull up horse A. Simply horse B was improving on trackwork and horse A had a virus or bad bloodwork a week or two previously.

So the moral to this story is that there are many factors involved.

My little plan is jockeys. Now before you all start screaming about losing streaks and false odds just because it is D.Oliver etc..

Everything in this world goes in cycles...everything. The housing market, the economy, life, Michael Schumacher's winning streak. And to quote Rene Rivkin, "All booms must bust"
What I have done for quite some time which throws up consistent good priced winners, with very small losing streaks, is look at the top jockeys, only the top jockeys for a meeting.
I then see who is riding well over the first 3 or 4 races. Who is riding to win, or just going through the motions to collect the paycheck. (albeit small if they don't figure in the finish).

I look at what rides they have for the day, if they have left a good stable ride to do someone a favour. If they travelled from Cranbourne to Ipswich for 1 ride.

But my most success has come from a top jockey who wins a race early, often they will ride another winner at quite attractive odds sometimes a treble or even four winners.
Jockey in form!

Example: today at Gosford..

R2 horse 3 D.Beadman Kenwood Allegro $3.50

and later..

R5 horse 10 D.Beadman Silk Veil $3.70


OR

Last Saturday:

Rosehill R1 horse 1 D.Beadman Air of Grace $3.10

and then

Rosehill R6 horse 3 D.Beadman Grampiand $3.80.

Now granted these examples are quite short priced in the market, but I have had great success in the past and have had say B.Prebble ride a winner at $2.90 and then salute in a group race at double figure odds.

The same can be said for most of the "elite" hoops.

Any comments guys?

Constructive input or criticism most welcome.

[Placegetter]

If I understand this correctly, when Beadman (as an example) salutes in race 2, you need 6/1 on the remaining rides to break even, unless he wins earlier than race 8, whereas you would have won the day. (My suggestion would be to stop betting right at that moment.)

If he doesn't salute again.......

The theory assumes that your chosen jockey will ride a double, it has to, otherwise there is now way to stake it.

I'm a little unsure as to the power of the method. For me, an elite hoop is an elite hoop. I prefer the jockey to have experience with the horse rather than just backing it because it's D. Beadman (or whoever).

But hey, I only bet for the place, so who am I to talk, this can seriously only apply to win or exotic bettors.

_________________
Pick it to win, back it to place.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Placegetter on 2002-05-09 07:42 ]</font>

[mr magic]

I find the best hoops to follow are the 3kg apprentices when they hit a winning patch. They begin to ride with confidence, get mounts of good quality high in the weights and use their claim to great advantage.
I've marked down Newitt in Melbourne as the next 3kg wizz kid. (Already proven himself in Tassie)

[croft]

If you follow Damien Oliver (strike rate 1 win in approx 4.8 rides) and Paul Harvey (1 win in every 4.2 rides) at each Saturday Metro meeting they ride at and back each horse they ride until they win a race, then at the moment you would be well in front. They ride quite a few short priced winners but you would be surprised at the number of $8 to $10 winners they also ride.I stop as soon as they get a winner for the day and will continue to follow this approach until they lose form.

[Equine Investor]

Was another big day today for my little "earner" system.

BALLARAT
R6 horse 4 Centennial Dandy B.Prebble Won @ $2.00 (SYD Dividends)

So my selection was ....
R7 horse 10 STORM ATTACK B.Prebble Won @ $4.00 (SYD dividends)
:grin: :grin: :grin:
Bye the way, it will sometimes go through a small losing sequence, but wins more often than loses. I do use a staking plan for this but it has an emergency stop-gap. that is, I increase my bet to cover costs, but only to a strict limit, so if I were to experience a long series of outs, it would not hurt profits already made.

So my progression for example would be

1U-2U-4U-8U..STOP!
Rule a line and start again.
This has made very good results for me.
But I find place betting strike rate is about 57% but at an average of $1.75 return for the place.
:grin:

[Placegetter]

On 2002-05-09 22:35, Equine Investor wrote:
Was another big day today for my little "earner" system.

BALLARAT
R6 horse 4 Centennial Dandy B.Prebble Won @ $2.00 (SYD Dividends)

So my selection was ....
R7 horse 10 STORM ATTACK B.Prebble Won @ $4.00 (SYD dividends)

Bye the way, it will sometimes go through a small losing sequence, but wins more often than loses. I do use a staking plan for this but it has an emergency stop-gap. that is, I increase my bet to cover costs, but only to a strict limit, so if I were to experience a long series of outs, it would not hurt profits already made.

So my progression for example would be

1U-2U-4U-8U..STOP!
Rule a line and start again.
This has made very good results for me.


Since when was race 6 in the first three or four races?

I also don't understand how a long series of outs could not hurt profits already made. Any system that requires you to increase stakes when losing scares me. (Am I quoting someone here?)

_________________
Pick it to win, back it to place.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Placegetter on 2002-05-09 22:49 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

Hey Placegetter,

All I said was I take note of who is riding well in the first few races, but my system is based on good jockeys in recent WINNING form. Everyone has good days and bad, jockeys are no different. I have seen many jockeys have horrible days through no fault of their own, and then I have seen that they have days where everything just goes their way.
Remember when Prebble rode all those winners that day and broke a record?
:grin:
Also, you queried the series of outs not hurting the bank?
Well, if you religiously stick to the staking and stop at a certain point. The next time you hit a winner at (10/1 for example) or a treble of winners, you clean up all losses plus post a tidy profit.

You mentioned you were worried about increasing bets when losing?
My answer is..
What is the difference between backing five or six horses a week at $50 a win level stakes and betting in this sequence...
$10 first bet
$20 second bet
$60 third bet
$180 fourth bet?
stop.
Providing you have a good strike rate and dividend, it's really the same thing.
(these figures are just hypothetical).
So far this year, I have only had one series of bets that didn't strike a winner within four bets. Mostly I get a winner every two to three bets.
_________________
Invest - Don't Gamble!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-10 00:21 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-10 00:34 ]</font>

[Privateer]

'quote'
"If they travelled from Cranbourne to Ipswich for 1 ride......"

The jockey wins at Ipswich and that's it for the day then is it? No bet, no win.

On the topic of jockeys, with probably only 3 notable exceptions, they are in my view much of a muchness. Give say Greg Ryan the same opportunities as Munce, Beadman & co and he'd be top of the premiership too.

Look at any jockey and trainer premiership table and you'll see that the top listed jockeys ride for the top listed stables. What a remarkable coincidence.

Maybe we should all simply follow the trainers. Those who train a winner early should be followed and supported until they train another winner. Same principle.

The thing that also would be of concern is that Corey Brown rides the first winner then begins his current run of 11 outs. Simon Price does the same then starts his run of 26 outs....as per the quote of Mr Rivkin.

Furthermore, which meeting do you select to punt on? Beadman rides the first winner in Sydney, Rodd the first in Brisbane, Oliver the first in Melbourne and Creek the first in Adelaide? Race 2, 4 different "top" jockeys ride the winners.

There is no offence intended with my comments, I wish any punter good luck with their method of betting. I simply don't see the continued success (or value) in this method.

Privateer

[Placegetter]

Anyone else here wondering who the three notable exceptions are?

There's your gold. I've got mine as well.

[Equine Investor]

Privateer, you point of view is respected, however with regards to travelling jockeys that is not part of the winning form system.
It is just a side thing that I follow with good success.
With your rating of jockeys....
Yes, some jockeys get the better horses and ride for the top stables because they have outstanding ability and judgement in a race...that's how they get the better rides. Trainers see their ability and want these top hoops on their mounts, and I want them riding the horses I back too.

It is not a matter of the number of winning rides..."top of premiership." It is their strike rate that I look at and their ability to overcome adversity in a race - give their horse the run of the race so to speak. We often see the best jockeys get a clear run in a bunched up field where others would have failed.

What a remarkable coincidence.

Maybe we should all simply follow the trainers. Those who train a winner early should be followed and supported until they train another winner. Same principle.
No it is not the same principle at all.
Yes, you can follow trainers with some degree of success but horse A may be going around for the run (fitness) and horse B might be there to win (set for this race).
Jockeys have the ability to change circumstances in a race...trainers do not.

I have already covered the run of outs issue. You dont keep betting when you experience a run of outs.
You wait for the next opportunity that he rides a winner and start again.

I don't select meetings to bet on, I select jockeys.

Furthermore, which meeting do you select to punt on? Beadman rides the first winner in Sydney, Rodd the first in Brisbane, Oliver the first in Melbourne and Creek the first in Adelaide? Race 2, 4 different "top" jockeys ride the winners.

I wouldnt be backing Rodd or Creek anywhere.
Just because they are at the top of the premiership means nothing. I rate them according to my own set of rules plus strike rates and consistency.
P.J. Harvey - D.Oliver - D.Beadman - B.Prebble - C. Munce
for example.

No offence taken - a healthy debate is always good.
:grin:

There is no offence intended with my comments, I wish any punter good luck with their method of betting. I simply don't see the continued success (or value) in this method.

Privateer
[/quote]

[Privateer]

Why not back Rodd or Creek? Rodd has the same number of wins at a better strike rate than Prebble. Creek has exactly the same strike rate as Munce.

Also, which other name do you use in these forums? Come on, you can tell us.

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-05-10 13:59, Privateer wrote:
Why not back Rodd or Creek? Rodd has the same number of wins at a better strike rate than Prebble. Creek has exactly the same strike rate as Munce.

Also, which other name do you use in these forums? Come on, you can tell us.

Umm just found this forum and the admin/moderator can check my IP addy, I use no other name on this forum.

re Rodd or Creek - strike rates may be good but I just dont think that they are in the elite list.
Personal opinion - that's all.

[Placegetter]

[quote]
On 2002-05-10 00:10, Equine Investor wrote:
Hey Placegetter,

You mentioned you were worried about increasing bets when losing?
My answer is..
What is the difference between backing five or six horses a week at $50 a win level stakes and betting in this sequence...
$10 first bet
$20 second bet
$60 third bet
$180 fourth bet?
stop.
Providing you have a good strike rate and dividend, it's really the same thing.
(these figures are just hypothetical).
[quote]

Equine Investor, my answer is this.....

If my bank is $1,000 and I bet $10 to win on the first race, that is 1% of bank. No problems.

If I have just three outs, you are suggesting my next bet be EIGHTEEN PERCENT of my bank! Remembering that if it loses, your streak of just four losses has knocked out 27% of your bank.

It comes down to chutzpah. I don't think there are win bettors out there with the balls to make that kind of outlay.

As you say though, it's just personal opinion.

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-05-10 20:54, Placegetter wrote:
Equine Investor, my answer is this.....

If my bank is $1,000 and I bet $10 to win on the first race, that is 1% of bank. No problems.

If I have just three outs, you are suggesting my next bet be EIGHTEEN PERCENT of my bank! Remembering that if it loses, your streak of just four losses has knocked out 27% of your bank.

It comes down to chutzpah. I don't think there are win bettors out there with the balls to make that kind of outlay.

As you say though, it's just personal opinion.



Placegetter it doesn't matter whether you bet in $1 or $10,000 units, it's all relative. I would regard myself as a very large punter compared to most, but to do this you have to be at the track or have an offshore account...as i do.
Hehe I got sick of the TAB ringing the agent to confirm they were holding the money for my bets every time I put a ticket in the machine when I couldnt get to the course.. Mind you the track is a much better alternative.

All that aside, I don't think that anyone who bets $5.00 a race or $50,000 a race is any different. It just comes down to the size of your bank and "chutzpah" as you put it.

The hypothetical figures that I quoted earlier, were just that, hypothetical. I mentioned size of bet/unit but nowhere did I mention bank size.

You must have a substantial bank in order to do this. If as suggested you bank were $1,000 then your first bet would be more like $1 or $2 not $10!

At the moment, I start at $100, but that's only because I have a considerable bank which I built up over the last five years.

_________________
Invest - Don't Gamble!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-10 21:47 ]</font>

[Placegetter]

All I got from that rsponse was that your first bet is $100 and you have an offshore account.

Whether your figures were hypothetical is irrelevant, a percentage can still be applied to a $50,000 bank and a $50 bank the same way.

If you are trying to convince me that your average punter is going to be staisfied betting 0.1% of their bank PLACE BETTING, I'm not buying it. Sorry.

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-05-10 21:59, Placegetter wrote:
If you are trying to convince me that your average punter is going to be staisfied betting 0.1% of their bank PLACE BETTING, I'm not buying it. Sorry.


I'm not trying to convince you of anything.
I am just saying what works for me and has done for the past five years.
If you could bet 0.1% of your bank and make your total bank grow by 500% per annum, isnt that what it's all about. Betting but safeguarding the capital?

[becareful]

If you could bet 0.1% of your bank and make your total bank grow by 500% per annum, isnt that what it's all about. Betting but safeguarding the capital?


Hmm - lets get out the spreadsheet again. If you are betting 0.1% of the bank as your starting point then your average bet (using your 1,2,6,18 scheme) is going to be about 3 times that - say 0.3% of your bank. Now given the ave div and strike rate you gave on the other thread your return per bet is about 2.5%. To get a 500% return per year you have to make around 21000 bets per year - those jockeys you follow must be busy! Something here doesnt add up.

[Equine Investor]

That's some very quick aritmetic there.
You are going on averages not on leverage.
Leverage is when your6 or 18 unit bet is successful at well above average price.
It does add up if you don't just add up the average dividend.That's my point, the good dividends not the average ones.

Don't forget I will be placing the results of my system here tonight.Bet by bet so you can see how it works out level stakes against leverage betting.
_________________
Invest - Don't Gamble!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-11 11:57 ]</font>

[becareful]

On 2002-05-11 11:36, Equine Investor wrote:
It does add up if you don't just add up the average dividend.That's my point, the good dividends not the average ones.


NO! If you have a $5 win on the $1800 bet this week you will have a good week - but for the next month when you have $1.20 or $1.30 wins with those bets then your average win will come back to the $1.83. The good dividends don't matter - they are always offset by the poor dividends to bring you back to your AVERAGE. The only exception to this would be if your average dividend for the $1800 bets is higher than the average dividend for the $100 bets. If this is the case then you need to ask yourself WHY - are you being more selective with your higher value bets?

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-05-11 12:02, becareful wrote:

On 2002-05-11 11:36, Equine Investor wrote:
It does add up if you don't just add up the average dividend.That's my point, the good dividends not the average ones.


NO! If you have a $5 win on the $1800 bet this week you will have a good week - but for the next month when you have $1.20 or $1.30 wins with those bets then your average win will come back to the $1.83. The good dividends don't matter - they are always offset by the poor dividends to bring you back to your AVERAGE. The only exception to this would be if your average dividend for the $1800 bets is higher than the average dividend for the $100 bets. If this is the case then you need to ask yourself WHY - are you being more selective with your higher value bets?


True in theory, but don't forget that your $1,800 bet also recoups the other three losses whereas at level stakes it doesn't!

[becareful]

But if it misses (which on your stats it will 44% of the time) then you are $2700 in the red and your next bet is only a $100 so at best you will get a couple of hundred back.

[Placegetter]

Did you guys remember to bet today?

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-05-11 13:04, becareful wrote:
But if it misses (which on your stats it will 44% of the time) then you are $2700 in the red and your next bet is only a $100 so at best you will get a couple of hundred back.


NO NO NO - You are not reading the system properly at all. 44% of the time you may not have a placegetter but that is the average. Not a run of four losses in a row 44% of the time.
Now back to betting!
90% or more you get a run of four

[mr magic]

Equine Investor,
If you average a winner every '2 or 3 picks'
(which would make you one of Australia's most accurate punters) why the hell do you bother with convaluted staking plans?

[Equine Investor]

Ummmmmm Because it is place betting!

[Equine Investor]

Venue Race Horse Jockey Bet Dividend Win/Loss
Randwick 1 2 Beadman $100 $1.60 +$60
Randwick 2 1 Beadman $100 - - $100
Randwick 3 1 Beadman $200 $1.30 +$60
Randwick 3 5 Munce $100 - - $100
Randwick 4 5 Beadman $100 $1.60 +$60
Randwick 4 2 Munce $200 - -$200
Randwick 5 3 Beadman $100 - -$100
Randwick 5 9 Munce $600 - -$600
Randwick 6 3 Munce $1,800 $1.20 +$360
Randwick 6 4 Beadman $200 - -$200
Randwick 7 5 Munce $100 - -$100
Randwick 7 7 Beadman $600 - -$600
Randwick 8 4 Beadman $1,800 $2.50 +$2,700
Randwick 8 10 Munce $200 - -$200
Morphetville 1 1 Prebble $100 - -$100
Morphetville 1 6 Oliver $100 $1.60 +$60
Morphetville 2 1 Prebble $200 $1.40 +$80
Morphetville 3 1 Oliver $100 $1.30 +$30
Morphetville 3 14 Prebble $100 - -$100
Morphetville 4 4 Oliver $100 - -$100
Morphetville 4 6 Prebble $200 $2.90 +$380
Morphetville 5 12 Prebble $100 - -$100
Morphetville 5 16 Oliver $200 $2.30 +$260
Morphetville 6 3 Oliver $100 - -$100
Morphetville 6 13 Prebble $200 - -$200
Morphetville 7 3 Oliver $200 - -$200
Morphetville 7 12 Prebble $600 - -$600
Morphetville 8 4 Oliver $600 $1.60 +$360
Morphetville 8 12 Prebble $1,800 - -$1,800

Strike rate 11/29 37.93%
Average price $1.75
Loss on day -$1,070
(bear in mind this is a longterm system not based on daily results and my next bet on Munce is $600 but Prebble,Oliver and Beadman are back to $100).

Summary

Below average day with strike rate lower than usual and dividends also lower than the average longterm.
Prebble having a losing run of four which is his first for quite a few months. It had to hit the day I was showing you how it works! Anyhow I will post for next weekend as well.
Incidentally Harvey did not ride today because Ascot was abandoned.

[Privateer]

Those figures scare the living daylights out of me. I think I'll stick to my own method. It seems to beat the hell out of following jockeys!

Maybe the trainers WERE the go eh? i.e. Waterhouse.

Privateer

I just read them again....$10,000 worth of bets? If I had $10,000 worth of bets:

(a) I'd be divorced
(b) I'd be listening to the races from the safety of the coronary care ward at the local hospital

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Privateer on 2002-05-11 17:40 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Privateer on 2002-05-11 17:44 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Privateer on 2002-05-11 17:54 ]</font>

[mr magic]

Anyway,tell me this. If by some freak of nature you miss 4 placegetters straight and blow 28 units you draw a line right?
With your progressive staking plan you bet one unit on the first selection of the next series, it wins and you pocket the winning unit and draw a line and start a new series. Place another single unit on the next winner, in front for the series therefore draw a line and so on.
If I am right, you could back 27 straight winners at $2 and when added to the 4 you missed in your earlier series that's 31 bets for 27 winners and a loss of 1 unit.
If that's how it works, you better take up needlecraft. If it's not I'm all ears.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2002-05-12 17:54 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-05-11 17:32, Privateer wrote:
Those figures scare the living daylights out of me. I think I'll stick to my own method. It seems to beat the hell out of following jockeys!

Maybe the trainers WERE the go eh? i.e. Waterhouse.

Privateer

I just read them again....$10,000 worth of bets? If I had $10,000 worth of bets:

(a) I'd be divorced
(b) I'd be listening to the races from the safety of the coronary care ward at the local hospital

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Privateer on 2002-05-11 17:40 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Privateer on 2002-05-11 17:44 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Privateer on 2002-05-11 17:54 ]</font>

The bet size is irrelevant Privateer it is a percentage of your bank. Oh and you must stick to the system, not change to trainers just coz they had a good day.
But remember my post about travelling jockeys?
Look at how many interstate jockeys won at Adelaide today.
Pity I wasn't on Gauci in the last!!!

[Placegetter]

It had to hit the day I was showing you how it works! Anyhow I will post for next weekend as well.


Good on you Equine Investor, you've got to stick to your system. I'll watch with keen interest next week as I am still a little confused about your system. For instance why were you betting in the first races when you are supposed to be watching the jockey to see if he is there to race?

Your stakingplan has certainly created a lot of attention though, it's refreshing.

By the way, which haven are you using, I'm a little wary of the Cayman politics.

[Equine Investor]

mr magic wrote:
...you're the one that keeps quoting "winning bets" and their dividends, not placegetters. Every post you've referred to winning jockeys, winning odds etc.
Anyway,tell me this. If by some freak of nature you miss 4 placegetters straight and blow 28 units you draw a line right?
With your progressive staking plan you bet one unit on the first selection of the next series, it wins and you pocket the winning unit and draw a line and start a new series. Place another single unit on the next winner, in front for the series therefore draw a line and so on.
If I am right, you could back 27 straight winners at $2 and when added to the 4 you missed in your earlier series that's 31 bets for 27 winners and a loss of 1 unit.
If that's how it works, you better take up needlecraft. If it's not I'm all ears.

Mr Magic if you put a place bet on a horse and it runs second...don't you call that a winning bet?
If not what do you call it?

I have never had 27 straight winners or I'd be a genius and retired in the Bahamas, but I do see your point. However,I don't get the maths of your argument.
Yes 27 winners for 31 bets would be nice, but how do you end up with a loss of 1 unit. You don't know what the dividends are for each winner(oops sorry placegetter).
27 x $2.00 = $54 out of 31 units.
That's not a bad return at all.
No needlepoint for me, rather stitch up the bookies.
:grin:

_________________
Invest - Don't Gamble!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2002-05-12 17:56 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

Placegetter,
I was using Vanuatu but they are a little unreliable at times so I also use Melbourne bookie Cleary via telephone.And you are sort of mixing up a few systems I have mentioned based on Jockeys(my fault wasn't as clear as I could be). I run a couple of systems at once but there are three.
This one is the best but should have included the others as I did miss Gauci.
For clarity though, I am only tracking this current system on this BB.
Thanks for your encouragement - much appreciated.
_________________
Invest - Don't Gamble!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-11 18:32 ]</font>

[becareful]

On 2002-05-11 16:21, Equine Investor wrote:

NO NO NO - You are not reading the system properly at all. 44% of the time you may not have a placegetter but that is the average. Not a run of four losses in a row 44% of the time.
Now back to betting!
90% or more you get a run of four


EI - What I was referring to is that IF you get to the $1800 bet then 44% of the time you will lose that particular bet. I realise that in theory you will win on the first bet 56% of the time, the second bet 25% of the time, third bet 11%, 4th bet win 4.7% and strikeout around 3.8%.

Look forward to seeing your results for next week - must be some bad luck going around because my strike rate yesterday was way below my average too!

[Equine Investor]

Yes becareful:
the $1,800 bet will lose 44% of the time, but if the other 56% it returns the average dividend, then the profits you made prior to that series of bets would more than cover any loss incurred. Given that you only get to that fourth bet 10-20% of the time.
Today was a shocker for me but that doen't matter because the loss as a percentage of my bank was not worrying at all - my next bet on Munce is $600 still.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-11 18:43 ]</font>

[Privateer]

"you must stick to your system" Oh, OK. I thought you changed it to fit results so it looks better.

Let me get this straight....Brett Prebble owes you $2700 and you intend to have $100 for a place on his next mount?

By the way, I thought it was a fantastic day!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Privateer on 2002-05-11 19:03 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

Yes that's it!
A pain in the neck but I know that Prebble will return a profit in the longrun and not too distant future.
Stay tuned for next week.

I never panic coz I know I have a good jockey onboard.

And no the rules stay the same always!

[croft]

I agree with equine investor to a certain extent. I couldn't bet the amounts he is stating, but there is merit in following jockeys. As I stated in an earlier post I follow 2 jockeys,Damien Oliver and Paul Harvey, mainly because they have the best strike rates in the country. And before you say they also get the best mounts from the best stables, they get that priviledge because they have proven themselves to be the best.
I back their horses to win and only bet until they get their first winner for the day. There are very few days where they don't ride a winner. Consequently, even though some of their rides start fairly short, I win quite often. For example, Oliver's first mount in Adelaide won at $3.30 and even though the horse was near favourite I still won 2.3 units for my 1 unit outlay.I also follow several other systems, some good and some not so good but I have fun with the small amounts I bet. But I am also strong, in that once my system has done for the day what I would like it to do I stop, even if it is the first bet for the day.
I also agree with earlier posts that most systems eventually fail so I'm always aware of stopping one and starting up another.

I have outlayed 86 units to win on Oliver's and Harvey's mounts since Jan 1st for a return of 135.7 units. That gives a profit of 58% on turnover.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: croft on 2002-05-11 23:55 ]</font>

[Privateer]

To my mind, your credibility was shot to pieces when you bet for a place on 4 races where there were less than 8 runners. Not only that, but in two of those races you backed two horses! That is ludicrous. No intelligent punter would ever do such a thing.

[Mr. Logic]

mr magic wrote:
If by some freak of nature you miss 4 placegetters straight and blow 28 units you draw a line right?
With your progressive staking plan you bet one unit on the first selection of the next series, it wins and you pocket the winning unit and draw a line and start a new series. Place another single unit on the next winner, in front for the series therefore draw a line and so on.
If I am right, you could back 27 straight winners at $2 and when added to the 4 you missed in your earlier series that's 31 bets for 27 winners and a loss of 1 unit.

The reply was:
I have never had 27 straight winners or I'd be a genius and retired in the Bahamas, but I do see your point. However,I don't get the maths of your argument.
Yes 27 winners for 31 bets would be nice, but how do you end up with a loss of 1 unit. You don't know what the dividends are for each winner(oops sorry placegetter).
27 x $2.00 = $54 out of 31 units.
That's not a bad return at all.
No needlepoint for me, rather stitch up the bookies.

I side here with Mr. Magic:

1. Under this progressive loss catching scheme if only four placegetters are missed you are wiped out - 28 units are lost.

2. Of course we don't know the dividends for each winning place bet. BUT should you then back 27 horses in a row for the place at level stakes and SHOULD the winning dividend average $2.00 you only make 27 units profit -the $2.00 dividend each time includes your $1.00 outlay.

That means you have lost one unit.

To me such a loss staking chasing method looks like a disaster waiting to happen.I wouldn't go near it.

[Placegetter]

I bet Equine Investor drives a Ferrarri and is laughing his/her head off at us right now because we can't get our head around his/her system.

I must admit, if I were following jockeys I'd be more inclined to back for a win, except one jockey in particular which I have no intention of divulging (gold, pure gold).

[mr magic]

Placegetter,
I think Messrs Logic and Magic understand the system 100% and identify flaws with it. We are waiting patiently for a measured from response from the "investor".
There are obviously massive problems with any system which ;
a) can show a loss after backing 27/31 placegetters at $2 as pointed out in my example
b) places 1% of your bank on a horse after you've dropped 28% of your bank in just 4 bets.
An intelligent response without rhetoric about Cayman Islands and luxury cars would be appreciated.

[Equine Investor]

croft:

You obviously are thinking along the same lines as myself.
You points are quite valid. However, if you have faith in your system, it is important not to drop off it because you have a bad dat or week. If you research it on enough data and the maths add up, then you should never drop the sytem and switch to another. You will kick yourself when the next week all your selections come up with the chocolates and you were trying something different. Yes, you don't win every time you place a bet with my system that is why there is the stop gap to protect your bank from any significant run of outs.

Privateer:
The number of horses in the race is quite irrelevant, as is the number of horses bet in that race with this system. I am not betting to win money on one particular race. I am betting to win longterm on the jockey. Averages and dividends. Strike rates etc. I feel my credibility is well intact as I was honest in my posting of results and included the fact that I lost on the day and never changed the rules to show a profit...(which many people do).

Mr. Logic:
If you are wiped out from losing 28 units then you are not sticking to the system. You never bet more than 1% of your bank!
Yes you lose those 28 units but the fact that this doesnt occur regularly and you make consistent profits means that those units will be retrieved in the long run.
People keep making this reference to 27 place getters in a row, that is statisically improbable so I won't go near that assumption.
Past data shows this to never have occurred in the past.
The beauty of the system is that you don't have to chase losses, you make an attempt at profit but if you lose four in a row, then you start again because my statistics show you will recoup those losses in the long term.

Mr. Magic
I was asked how I place large wagers and I posted it, so no apologies for my response.
I have never lost 28% of my bank but I have lost 28 units. Are you saying that 28 units is equal to 28% of my bank and 100 units is 100% of my bank? - not true!

[Mr. Logic]

Equine Investor, if you're making profits with your method, then good luck (skill?). You're ahead of 99% of punters.
I just hope you don't come a cropper having a number of 28 units losses followed by negligible profits after each 28 units loss winning by betting one unit the place.
That's what makes markets - differences of opinion.
If everyone followed the same selection and staking methods then there wouldn't be any markets.

[mr magic]

Eq Inv,
You're inability to answer my simple query is either a sign of low intellect (which I doubt) or you can't answer it honestly and show up an obvious flaw.
Enough time wasted on this rot anyway.
Bet the win and make some serious profit if your selections are any good. There isn't any way possible that good selections can make more money betting place than betting win. I will bet you half your punting bank (I don't cate how much) that if you show us your fair dinkum bet list over twelve months that it wins more betting win than place.
Anyone who disagrees is more than welcome to list their long term results and prove me wrong.
My humble apology will follow.

[Equine Investor]

MrMagic I answered your question honestly...what part of it didn't you understand?
If your system is so good then good luck to you, but I haven't seen you post results honetly like I have. And yes I will be posting results for the past 6 months here.
I am not saying there are not better systems than mine out there, I am saying this one works for me!
I like it and wanted to share it - now instead of tearing it apart from lack of understanding and inaccurate mathematics, how about posting your system so we can see how your system is better!

[Privateer]

I wasn't attacking your personal credibility, I can't, I don't know you.

I was questioning your credibility as a "big" punter. Once again, there is no way on God's earth a pro punter would back 2 horses for the place in a 7 horse field. To say you do so regularly doesn't only damage your credibility, it smashes it to pieces.

Anyway..I too have had enough of this. I won't reply again.

Privateer.

[becareful]

Guys, this is getting ridiculous. EI has posted what his system is and some real results and you guys are now leveling personal insults at him. If you don't like his system or don't understand it then that is fair enough but don't insult him because you disagree. I have no problem at all with his system (I probably wouldn't use it but that is my choice) but so far he is the only person I have seen post here who has a system that turns a profit (based on the figures he has quoted - obviously this has not been proven yet). The only issue I have is with his staking plan (but again - I respect his choice to use it) - in MY OPINION he could make more money with an ever bet amount but again that is my opinion and he is free to ignore it if he wishes.

Privateer - I notice that you have dragged out the old "never put a place bet on a race with less than 8 horses" rule and imply that anyone who breaks this must be stupid. Have you ever done the maths or looked at the statistics on horses placing in first 2 in 7 horse race verses the first 3 in a 16 horse race? Generally speaking (particularly for shorter priced horses) your chances of getting a placing in the 7 horse race are better than in the 15 or 16 horse race. This is another one of those "rules" that just doesn't stand up to mathematical or historical analysis.

I generally only place win bets so it is not an issue to me but if I was working on place bets I would not automatically rule out a place bet on 7 horse race.

[Privateer]

I said I wouldn't reply but want to clarify:

(a) I have not insulted anyone as far as I can see. If you look at my 1st reply to this post I actually offer the comment "please don't take offence"

(b) Where is the implication I made re stupidity?

Have YOU done the relevant analysis becareful? Having spent 20 years in the area of research, analysis and inference development, I know a little about stats.

This guy has set himself up to be a professional punter but is breaking basic rules that readers of this forum might be interested to read.

I'm sure that Quapi would have advised me if it was believed my comments were malicious.

Privateer

[Placegetter]

Equine Investor, I think Mr Magic's post about luxury cars and off shore havens was directed at me.

Guilty as charged Mr Magic, I am sorry if I have caused distress. I am merely trying to give the new guy a break because he copped a caning and I would prefer to have him around in the long term.

Re-read this post in particular, there is some brilliant analysis and argument offered, which has been sadly lacking recently (I only just joined, but I read the forum history).

For what's it's worth, I didn't realise the postings had to be one hundred percent concentrated on horses, but have realised the error of my ways and will not be so childish.

Apologies Everyone.

Placegetter

[quapi]

Hello everyone. Your postings in this thread are most welcome. But let's cool down a little. There's a fine line between healthy debate and breaching Forum Terms of Use with postings that involve "Abuse or unpleasantness."


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2002-05-12 18:12 ]</font>

[mr magic]

EI,
PLEASE read my post of 11/5/02 at 17.38 and tell me how I have misunderstood your system.
CONCENTRATE ON THE EXAMPLE I HAVE GIVEN and tell me where I have missed the point.
Once you tell me I have it all wrong I'll leave it alone but as it stands I just cannot fathom the sense of what you are doing.
Thank you.

[Equine Investor]

For those still interested here are today's results of the system.


Venue Race Jockey Horse Investment Dividend Win/Loss

Caulfield 2 Oliver 5 $100 - -$100
Caulfield 2 Prebble 6 $100 $3.50 +$250
Caulfield 3 Prebble 1 $100 $1.10 +$10
Caulfield 3 Oliver 9 $200 $1.50 +$100
Caulfield 4 Oliver 2 $100 $1.80 +$80
Caulfield 4 Prebble 4 $100 - -$100
Caulfield 5 Oliver 4 $100 - -$100
Caulfield 5 Prebble 2 $200 - -$200
Caulfield 6 Oliver 3 $200 $2.00 +$200
Caulfield 6 Prebble 6 $600 - -$600
Caulfield 7 Prebble 7 $1,800 $2.90 +$3,420
Caulfield 7 Oliver 1 $100 - -$100
Caulfield 8 Oliver 2 $200 $1.80 +$160
Caulfield 8 Prebble 9 $100 $2.40 +$140
Eagle Fa 1 Munce 15 $600 - -$600
Eagle Fa 2 Munce 10 $1,800 $3.60 +$4,680
Eagle Fa 3 Munce 16 $100 $10.60 +$960
Eagle Fa 4 Munce 9 $100 - -$100
Eagle Fa 5 Munce 9 $200 $2.20 +$240
Eagle Fa 6 Munce 1 $100 $1.30 +$30
Eagle Fa 7 Munce 2 $100 $5.00 +$400
Eagle Fa 8 Munce 13 $100 $2.50 +$150

Strike rate:14/22 63.63%
Average Dividend: $3.01
Today's Profit $8,920
:grin:

[cameron398]

Way to go EI - now that is impressive. Don't give away too many of your secrets eh

[Dougie]

Cameron398 do you know Honest Reward. Please put me in touch. I have lost his email address!!!!

[schmucta80]

congrats EI
i think you may have silenced those who criticised your methods, even though you gave them explanations
good luck and continued success
cheers

[schmucta80]

hello again
privateer, something for u to consider, the bets on two jockey in the 7 horse field are part of a series, they are independant of each other, therefore even if EI doesnt win on the race his series is still continued and has he has now shown in the end these losses are covered.
i have found this discussion great as people have put in lots of responses and there have been great comments, good luck to everyone and lets hope we all find a system that suits our needs
cheers

[Equine Investor]

Realise that Saturday was well below average and I acknowledge that Sunday has been well above average, but it does demonstrate the power of the system very well.Yes, if I had bet for the win I would have done better, but in the longrun not so. If people want me to continue to post results I will, if not just let me know...don't want to waste peoples time with this.
On todays profit, I could withstand 4 sets of 4 runs of outs without effecting my bank,which also has profit. E.G. 100/200/600/1800 that means my jockey would have to not run a place over 16 consecutive runs for it to entirely destroy my winnings today alone.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-12 22:05 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-12 22:07 ]</font>

[Placegetter]

Well done Equine Investor!

You're still at the high end of the risk scale for my liking. One more strike on Prebble or Munce and it could have been a very different result, but I'm glad you proved us wrong.

Good luck in the long term.

Placegetter

[becareful]

Hold on a minute - so far we have only seen 2 sets of results and suddenly EI has proved his system? I for one would like to see the results for the next few weeks before I make any conclusions one way or the other. Over these two days EI's strike rate was 49% (just a bit below averge) but his Ave Div was $2.46 - way above his average. Further his strike rate/div for his $1800 bets was a massive 80% and $2.55. As Placegetter points out (and I am sure EI would agree) had this been closer to the average we would have had a different result (still positive but not as impressive).

Please keep posting your results EI - I am very interested in the longer term viability of this.

[Equine Investor]

Agree totally with you becareful. You do need longer series to make a decision one way or another and I am compiling a longer series of stats in excel format from my betting sheets and will continue to post results as they come to hand.
However, let's not talk about hypotheticals, if this happened...then.
On my losing day, I could have said the same.

[becareful]

EI - sorry, I didn't mean to imply anything - I was just trying to make the point that you cannot judge a system based on 2 days data. We could play "if only" games all day (if Munce's $10 winner had been race 2 instead of race 3 you would have had a fantastic day, etc) but it doesn't help you come to a correct conclusion. I, for one, look forward to seeing your past (and future) results with interest.

[Equine Investor]

Becareful I haven't taken exception to anything you have said, at least you provide a logical argument and some food for thought. I just didn't want to get into hypotheticals with others as it would lead to a flood of hypotheticals, when I am only interested in statistics...that is what sets apart emotional and mathematical punters.
:grin:

[cameron398]

Hello EI - I understand you have been running this method for a while now. I for one would be happy to see your past results. I will trust they are not adjusted to show a fraudulent profit.

Email me direct if you like. I am of the opinion it is not the best idea to publish your results for all to see (whether the viewers believe in them or not)

[Equine Investor]

Hi Cameron,
When I finish converting all my results they will be made available in excel format for anyone to download. Understand that I am working off betting statements which include my balance,username and password...so I have to get rid of all that and it's a lengthy process.
I will provide the venue, date, race number, amount invested,horse name and tab number and running balance(of the system - not my account) and the tab dividend so you can check any day via the tab online service to make sure I am honest.

[Bhagwan]

Dear Equine Investor ,
I bet you feel maybe you graciously should`nt have offered your ideas & staking plan for free to this posting place .
Now you`ve told them ,they now want you to justify your findings over & over again.If you give them 100 results they will ask for 300 then 600 .What for?.Why dont they do their own research,why make you constantly justify yourself.
They still wont use the system, because it does`nt fit in with their realm of logic or style of betting & a number will continue to doubt you even with 600 results.You will notice the doubters never offer any constructive plans themselves .

They dont understand sequence betting.
Its the percentage of successful sequences thats important here, your research would have had to justify the approach.
Each jockey is treated as if they are in different races even though they may not be .
27 units on each completed sequence is the average of 6.75 units per selection level stakes,only without the leverage.

The only downside as with any staking plan is you have to pick a few winners spread out, preferable not clustered together with big gaps in between, hopfully past research would show that.

How many lots of 27 units should one have to have as a safe bank?

Thank you for your informative post, keep up the good work.

[cameron398]

Just for the record. I am not interested in using your methods. I just want to see that someone else out there is successfully returning an overall profit... regards Cam

[Equine Investor]

Stay tuned for today's (Wednesday's) results!

15-May-02 Warwick Farm 1 2 Mammoth $1.20 +$20.00
15-May-02 Warwick Farm 2 1 Rocksinga -$100.00
15-May-02 Warwick Farm 2 3 Nadzoff -$100.00
15-May-02 Warwick Farm 3 2 County Tyrone $1.40 +$80.00
15-May-02 Warwick Farm 3 5 Living End -$200.00
15-May-02 Warwick Farm 4 5 Del Ango -$600.00
15-May-02 Warwick Farm 5 7 Miami $1.90 +$90.00
15-May-02 Warwick Farm 6 2 Trusted -$1,800.00
15-May-02 Warwick Farm 6 3 Modern $1.70 +$70.00
15-May-02 Warwick Farm 7 6 Eaux De Vie -$100.00
15-May-02 Warwick Farm 8 1 Barberousse -$100.00
15-May-02 Warwick Farm 8 11 Sir Bollinger $2.60 +$320.00
15-May-02 Sandown 1 5 Indigo Rain $2.60 +$160.00
15-May-02 Sandown 2 2 Trojan Warrior $1.50 +$50.00
15-May-02 Sandown 2 16 Triangular - $100.00
15-May-02 Sandown 3 3 Call Me Syd - $200.00
15-May-02 Sandown 4 7 Arborelle $2.30 +$130.00
15-May-02 Sandown 4 14 Westfield - $600.00
15-May-02 Sandown 5 2 Awesome Warrior - $100.00
15-May-02 Sandown 7 2 Suave Lover - $200.00
15-May-02 Sandown 7 3 Stealth Knight $1.70 $1,260.00

_________________

LOSS TODAY $2,020
Next bet on OLIVER is $600
Next bet on BEADMAN is $200
PREBBLE / MUNCE are $100
HARVEY is also $100
***WE ARE STILL UP $5,830 SINCE I POSTED THIS SYSTEM***

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-15 17:40 ]</font>

[Ryan]

quote ".... I just didn't want to get into hypotheticals....."

AND

***WE ARE STILL UP $5,830 SINCE I POSTED THIS SYSTEM

Just a tad contradictory perhaps??

Ryan

[Equine Investor]

How so Ryan?
How is it contradictory?
Have been fully transparent with profits and losses, I am and have been trading this system myself if you read through the whole thread.

[Ryan]

Equine Investor

Your postings as follows:

10/05/02 10.00.10
"....these figures are just hypothetical"

10/05/02 10.20.54
"..the hypothetical figures that I quoted earlier were just that, hypothetical."

11/05/02 18.26
"I am only TRACKING (my emphasis) this current system on this BB"

13/05/02 11.05

"lets not talk about hypotheticals"

then the
"***WE ARE STILL UP $5,830 SINCE I POSTED THIS SYSTEM***

(1) Who is "we"

(2) Are you actually supporting the selections or simply "TRACKING this current system"

You also wrote:
11/05/02 18.26
"I run a couple of systems at once"

If this is such a fantastic system, the obvious question is why?.





<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2002-05-17 11:11 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

Yes, I clearly stated that I use the system because it works for me and posted it here so others could use it live or on paper...thus "we".

I use many systems at once so if one has a bad day usually I still make a profit on the day, however each system wins in the longrun.

My wording of hypotheticals was to answer a few who stated "but what if...." well I just let results speak for themselves. Otherwise I could say "if I won 27,000 races in a row I'd retire to the Bahamas!"
So I posted actual stats here for those interested.
I posted stats and and results - not hypotheticals!!!
If you took the time to read this thread fully you might have also read where I posted that I use this system and posted my actual investment amounts for each horse...something I haven't seen anyone else do recently.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-16 13:03 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2002-05-17 11:12 ]</font>

[Ryan]

So it's MANY systems at once now!!! That's a bit different to the "I run a couple of systems at once" post.

Accepting you run MANY systems your overall outlay, based on THE system you posted must be astronomical. With that kind of money available to you, why bet at all?

By the way doesn't "tracking" mean to monitor, follow the progress of? You shouldn't need to "track" your current system on the BB. You should already know...IF you were betting.

Ryan
"BET BIG - WIN SMALL" :wink: rotflmfao

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2002-05-17 11:14 ]</font>

[The Catparrot]

Your assumption that if someone has substantial financial resources "With that kind of money available to you, why bet at all?" does not really bear scrutiny.
Since when was betting on horses only for the financially disadvantaged and small punters?





<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2002-05-17 11:16 ]</font>

[Shaun]

I may be new to this forum but i think every one has something to contribute from thier experiance.....no one forces you to read these forums....and if we learn a little from each other then we would be better off.

[Placegetter]

Accepting you run MANY systems your overall outlay, based on THE system you posted must be astronomical. With that kind of money available to you, why bet at all?


I wonder if Kerry Packer and Lloyd Williams know that punting is beneath them?

[Equine Investor]

Today's Results...

16-May-02 Wyong 3 5 Brand Power $4.10 +$310.00
16-May-02 Geelong 4 4 Storm Attack $1.10 +$10.00
16-May-02 Wyong 6 5 Red Baroness - $100.00
16-May-02 Wyong 8 11 Magic Tumbler $1.50 +$100.00

Todays profit $320.
Nothing to write home about but still little fish are sweet!
:grin:
Total profit $6,150.00
Scone races tomorrow with Munce and Beadman with some great rides...and then of course there's Saturday.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-17 01:59 ]</font>

[becareful]

EI (and anyone else who is interested)

I updated my database to include rider details so I was able to pull some figures based on your system for the current year. At this stage I have only looked at D Beadman (but I will look at the others when I have more time). Based on this info I get the following results:

Year to date Beadman has had 376 rides for 174 placings - gives a strike rate of 46%. The average place was $2.15.
If you place bet with even stakes you would have basically broken even.
Using EI's system I show a profit of $16560

Looking a bit further I checked out the strike rate & ave div for each bet amount and got the following:
$100 = 43% SR, $2.07 AveDiv = 0.89 return
$200 = 49% SR, $2.14 AveDiv = 1.05 return
$600 = 46% SR, $2.42 AveDiv = 1.11 return
$1800 = 59% SR, $2.15 AveDiv = 1.27 return

So with Beadman at least EI's system is better than even bets because the return increases as the bet size goes up. If anyone has any theories as to why this is the case I would love to hear them. The best I could come up with is that average punters bet more on Beadman when he is coming off a previous win which reduces his odds for that following race and, to a smaller extent the one after as well.

It will be interesting to see if the same pattern is repeated accross the other jockeys or over a longer period.

An interesting point is that the average return on the first bet after a win (ie the $100 bet) is less than one (.89 in this case). The implication of this is that if you don't place this bet the overall return will increase (ie. you only bet after a jockey has 1 loss since previous win). Doing this gives a positive return on even betting and increases EI's return from $16580 to $18680 over that period.

Note that I am not 100% confident in the accuracy of my source data, in particular I believe that the rider may not be accurate when there have been late riding changes - so it may have missed some pickup rides and there seems to be a few days of missing data but I think it is good enough for this analysis.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-05-17 14:27 ]</font>

[Placegetter]

Becareful,

I agree with what you said, make no mistake, but this is in no way a recommendation to start doubling on jockeys who have had a couple of misses is it?

As I was reading it I was thinking that the success rate on the fourth ride should be higher than on the first three, if only to ensure the long term average is maintained.

Equine Investor - how will you, if at all, now use this info?

Placegetter

[becareful]

Placegetter,

No - definitely not a recommendation to double up on jockeys with a couple of misses. That data only applies to D.Beadman so to apply it to anyone else without testing would be foolish. As EI has stated he is very selective about which jockeys he works with. Also, as with anything based on historical data, you would have to be very careful applying it in the future (ie. monitor results carefully and stop to reassess if it starts looking bad).

I am not sure how much faith you can put in that strike rate for the $1800 bet - there were only 29 bets of this amount in the 5 months so the difference between 46% and 59% stike rate is about 3 or 4 bets - could just be lucky that it was this high. Would need more analysis to check this out.

[Equine Investor]

TODAY'S RESULTS.
17-May-02 Scone 1 2 Flying Nicko $2.20 +$240.00
17-May-02 Scone 2 1 Breezer - -$100.00
17-May-02 Scone 2 3 Be Impressive - -$100.00
17-May-02 Scone 3 1 Boyzone - -$200.00
17-May-02 Scone 3 2 Monologist $1.50 +$100.00
17-May-02 Scone 4 6 Ptolemiac $2.10 +$110.00
17-May-02 Scone 5 3 Lion's Pride - -$100.00 17-May-02 Scone 5 7 Danebar - -$600.00
17-May-02 Scone 6 2 Altiero - -$1,800.00
17-May-02 Scone 6 4 Hot Riff $1.80 +$160.00
17-May-02 Scone 7 2 Huge Demand $5.00 +$400.00
17-May-02 Scone 7 3 Adamantly - -$100.00
17-May-02 Scone 8 4 Mr Royston - -$100.00
17-May-02 Scone 8 8 Favourite Princess - -$200.00

Loss $2,290

Balance Now +$3,860 with some sizeable bets tomorrow. A few Jocks are well below their strike rates, I would expect this to turn around Saturday,Sunday, and with the big race meetings Monday.

Becareful...yes, those stats seem close to accurate to me. They corelate roughly to mine. At level stakes it is impossible to get anywhere substantial unless you provide further criteria for elimination and selection. At staking bets it would appear to be close to my stats also. Now the selection of the jockey is the only part of this that is not statistical in reality. They are not selected purely on strike rate or premiership tables. I also consider other factors, like how they overcome bad placement during the race. If they show enough aggression (shouldering their mount through an opening) or if they give their horse every possible chance...even if the horse isn't really up to it! ,they are also dropped from the system for various penalties such as a series of bad errors.
That is why stats only cannot be taken into account. I view replays of as many rides as I can, especially if the rider is below his strike rate to find out why?

_________________
Invest - Don't Gamble!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-17 18:00 ]</font>

[Privateer]

I saw the races and Munce gave most of his runners every chance. I actually thought Altiero was going to poke through for a place but it died in the last 50m. Beadman rode brilliantly.

Munce will definitely improve tomorrow and I hope he comes through with the goods.

Privateer

[Equine Investor]

Privateer,
My thoughts exactly...that's why they are still in my "portfolio"

[Equine Investor]

Saturday's Results...

18-May-02 Rosehill 1 1 Air Of Grace $1.10 $200.00 $20.00
18-May-02 Rosehill 1 2 Sampaguita $1.60 $600.00 $360.00 18-May-02 Rosehill 2 1 Thunder On - $100.00 $100.00 18-May-02 Rosehill 2 3 Lion Dancer - $100.00 $100.00
18-May-02 Rosehill 3 4 To Be Fair $1.90 $200.00 $180.00 18-May-02 Rosehill 3 6 Time To Remember - $200.00 $200.00
18-May-02 Rosehill 4 1 Sibyl - $600.00 $600.00 18-May-02 Rosehill 4 4 Comhere $2.90 $100.00 $190.00 18-May-02 Rosehill 5 5 Provokes - $100.00 $100.00
18-May-02 Rosehill 6 3 We're Dancing $1.60 $1,800.00 $1,080.00
18-May-02 Rosehill 6 5 Dance Director $2.90 $200.00 $380.00
18-May-02 Rosehill 7 5 Chantage $2.30 $100.00 $130.00
18-May-02 Rosehill 7 7 Monte Mist - $100.00 $100.00
18-May-02 Rosehill 8 5 Salim's Tip - $200.00 $200.00
18-May-02 Rosehill 8 14 Skiddaw $2.60 $100.00 $160.00
18-May-02 Doomben 2 1 Bails $1.30 $600.00 $180.00
18-May-02 Doomben 4 6 Mintanni $1.90 $100.00 $90.00
18-May-02 Doomben 5 14 Dreamworks - $100.00 $100.00
18-May-02 Doomben 6 6 I Rock My World - $200.00 $200.00
18-May-02 Doomben 7 1 Falvelon $1.40 $600.00 $240.00
18-May-02 Doomben 8 4 Society Beau $2.00 $100.00 $100.00
18-May-02 Morphetville 1 9 Nancy Eleanor $2.20 $100.00 $120.00
18-May-02 Morphetville 3 3 Handsome Colours - $100.00 $100.00
18-May-02 Morphetville 5 2 Tully Thunder $2.10 $200.00 $220.00
18-May-02 Morphetville 6 2 Royal Code - $100.00 $100.00
18-May-02 Morphetville 7 2 Allez France - $200.00 $200.00
18-May-02 Belmont 1 2 Transit Lounge - $100.00 $100.00
18-May-02 Belmont 3 7 In Paradisum - $200.00 $200.00

18-May-02 Belmont 6 3 De La Hoya - $600.00 $600.00
18-May-02 Belmont 7 10 Dark 'N' Dangerous $2.20 $1,800.00 $2,160.00
18-May-02 Belmont 8 3 Corporate Lady - $100.00 $100.00
18-May-02 Belmont 9 14 Jolly Jude - $200.00 $200.00


Profit on the day...$2,310.
Total Profit........$5,990.

These are rolling statistics and there are various size bets on a number of the jockey's next rides.
_________________The strike rate has dropped a little to 44.62% but the average price is $2.03 at the moment. Harvey is dragging the strike rate down badly and watching his rides over the weekend, I have decided to drop him from the jockey's list. A replacement will be announced....not necessarily in Perth. While Munce and Prebble aren't in the best form at the moment, I believe it is their rides and not their fault. I saw them both overcome bad situations to give their horse every possible chance a couple of times on Saturday...and for the time being they stay in.
Oliver and Beadman are on fire!!!
:grin:


Invest - Don't Gamble!





<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-19 17:08 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-19 17:14 ]</font>

[croft]

EI, Don't give up on Paul Harvey too soon. He is still one of the best jockeys in Australia and certainly has the best strike rate. This was the first meeting back at Belmont Park which is quite a different track to Ascot. Also he rode a treble at Pinjarra last Thursday so he hasn't lost form. Maybe it was just one of those days that all jockeys have at times.As you would know from my previous posts, I have followed Oliver and Harvey for some time and Paul has regularly given me higher profits than Damien.

By my calculations Harvey returned quite a healthy profit using your betting system. Almost $1000.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: croft on 2002-05-20 00:07 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

[quote]
On 2002-05-20 00:01, croft wrote:
EI, Don't give up on Paul Harvey too soon. He is still one of the best jockeys in Australia and certainly has the best strike rate. This was the first meeting back at Belmont Park which is quite a different track to Ascot. Also he rode a treble at Pinjarra last Thursday so he hasn't lost form. Maybe it was just one of those days that all jockeys have at times.As you would know from my previous posts, I have followed Oliver and Harvey for some time and Paul has regularly given me higher profits than Damien.

By my calculations Harvey returned quite a healthy profit using your betting system. Almost $1000.

Unfortunately Pinjarra's meeting on thursday was not covered by the VicTAB nor my bookie so I didn't include his rides...but also he made some basic errors in judgement on Saturday(in my opinion only).He does have a habit of popping up on some roughies from time to time though. But for my system he will be dropped til he comes back in overall better riding form, not just winners.

[mr magic]

EI,
Your system is working well for you which is good. I don't like it but if we all bet the same the punt would not exist.
The reason for my post - the divs you quote are TAB I take it. Do you have a bookie that will offer a quarter of top fluc for your place bets.
Mine does - I'll give you his details if you want them. Only problem may be that the minimum bet at the moment is $150 and you start at $100.

[Privateer]

EI

I know it's your money but I feel you would be making a serious error of judgement should you sack Paul Harvey from your "stable". Compare the last 12 rides of both Harvey and Chris Munce and I know who I'd be sacking!

If I had to choose a jockey to ride a horse I owned, Harvey would be one of only three going around that I'd consider.

It is rare for a Perth race meeting to go by without a Harvey winner. I'm sure he'll make you rue your decision.

Note: this is simply my OPINION. I'm not suggesting or implying anything here.

[Equine Investor]

MrMagic...thanks for posting that but yes I do have a very good relationship with a particular bookie. Also I have posted TAB (Vic) dividends only so that my results can be verified by others.

Privateer...
I agree Harvey is a great jockey and rode a perfect race on his last winner today. This is just a precautionary measure to protect my bank. Munce is also under scrutiny at the moment and unless he lifts his game he will be booted as well. The door is always open to reselect jockeys, but the major factor is to preserve the bank, and if I see a couple of bad rides...I proceed with caution. Your comments are quite welcome.

[croft]

EI,
I hope you followed Beadman and Harvey today (monday 20th).
They had 11 rides between them for 4 wins and 3 places (2 wins each) for a place rate of 64%.

Do you know of a site that gives the place success of jockeys over the past few months?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: croft on 2002-05-20 23:50 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

croft try this

http://www.skychannel.com.au/premierships/premiership.cfm

And yes I did back Beadman...but not Harvey.
Will post results when I get a chance as it's all like a dog's breakfast at the moment...too many interruptions today...ummm I think I won!
:grin:

[croft]

Thanks EI,
I checked out the website. It's exactly what I was after.

[Equine Investor]

Here are the last few days results...

20-May-02 Morphetville 1 1 Big Jesse - $100.00
20-May-02 Morphetville 1 5 Winthorpe - $600.00
20-May-02 Morphetville 3 2 Boy's Talk $1.50 $200.00 $100.00
20-May-02 Morphetville 4 1 Blur $1.10 $100.00 $10.00
20-May-02 Morphetville 5 3 Sylvaner $1.80 $1,800.00 $1,440.00
20-May-02 Morphetville 5 5 Market Place $2.10 $100.00 $110.00
20-May-02 Morphetville 6 2 Romilada - $100.00
20-May-02 Morphetville 6 8 Calming $3.80 $100.00 $280.00
20-May-02 Morphetville 7 5 Cardinal Colours - $100.00
20-May-02 Morphetville 7 10 Touch The Groom - $200.00
20-May-02 Morphetville 8 6 Self Interest $2.00 $600.00 $600.00
20-May-02 Morphetville 8 8 Bellonic - $200.00
20-May-02 Canterbury 1 3 Mountain Express $1.80 $100.00 $80.00
20-May-02 Canterbury 2 1 Stage Call - $100.00
20-May-02 Canterbury 2 8 Bally Beckham - $600.00
20-May-02 Canterbury 3 1 Elrapido $1.30 $200.00 $60.00
20-May-02 Canterbury 4 3 DoDuo - $100.00
20-May-02 Canterbury 4 4 Wildesong - $1,800.00
20-May-02 Canterbury 5 1 Lady Pavlova $1.70 $100.00 $70.00
20-May-02 Canterbury 6 16 Vostok - $100.00
20-May-02 Canterbury 7 2 Forest Magic $1.90 $200.00 $180.00
20-May-02 Canterbury 8 3 Schahriar - $200.00
20-May-02 Canterbury 8 11 Malo $3.20 $100.00 $220.00
21-May-02 Hawkesbury 2 6 Noble Touch $1.10 $100.00 $10.00
21-May-02 Hawkesbury 3 4 Parable $1.60 $100.00 $60.00
21-May-02 Hawkesbury 4 8 War And Peace $2.10 $100.00 $110.00
21-May-02 Hawkesbury 5 2 Knickerbocker Kid $1.90 $100.00 $90.00
21-May-02 Hawkesbury 6 2 Iron Cross $1.10 $100.00 $10.00
21-May-02 Hawkesbury 7 9 Timeline - $100.00
21-May-02 Hawkesbury 8 7 Balfour Park - $200.00
21-May-02 Hawkesbury 9 8 Countess De Money $1.70 $600.00 $420.00
21-May-02 Kyneton 8 1 Centennial Dandy - $600.00
22-May-02 Randwick 1 4 Prude $2.10 $600.00 $660.00
22-May-02 Randwick 1 5 Blue Chequer - $100.00
22-May-02 Randwick 2 2 Robert Royale $1.20 $100.00 $20.00
22-May-02 Randwick 2 3 Alive 'N' Well $2.60 $200.00 $320.00
22-May-02 Randwick 3 5 Breakaway - $100.00
22-May-02 Randwick 3 11 Cut For Deal - $100.00
22-May-02 Randwick 4 7 Big Doug - $200.00
22-May-02 Randwick 4 9 Dr. Freeze $4.10 $200.00 $620.00
22-May-02 Randwick 5 1 Gypsy Geena - $600.00
22-May-02 Randwick 6 3 Modern $1.70 $1,800.00 $1,260.00
22-May-02 Randwick 6 5 Alfayn $2.30 $100.00 $130.00
22-May-02 Randwick 7 1 Crescent $1.30 $100.00 $30.00
22-May-02 Randwick 7 8 Ground Speed $1.70 $100.00 $70.00
22-May-02 Randwick 8 3 Good Timing - $100.00
22-May-02 Randwick 8 7 Zaajer $2.30 $100.00 $130.00
22-May-02 Caulfield 2 3 Heist $1.20 $100.00 $20.00
22-May-02 Caulfield 3 13 Sinner - $100.00
22-May-02 Caulfield 5 3 Cherak $2.80 $200.00 $360.00
22-May-02 Caulfield 8 3 Kapalua - $100.00

An extra $970 profit.
Total Profit since May 11 $6,960.00
Next bet on Prebble is $1,800.
Next bet on Beadman and Oliver is $200 each.

Current strike rate is 46.28%
Average Dividend $2.186
Will continue posting this til the end of May and then others can follow it themselves on paper if they wish. Will update profit/loss only about once a month as I don't want to crowd this forum and I think this thread is getting a little long in the tooth.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-23 01:57 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-23 02:11 ]</font>

Whatever happened to Equine Investor :???: Lots of good stuff posted by this member, a lot of which has been regurgitated in various forms & shapes by other members, in recent times.

_________________


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Unlucky Phil on 2004-02-28 21:40 ]</font>

[crash]

He's suffering a long run of outs.

[Paddy]

EI if you are out there mate, hope all is going well for you. Perhaps you are still with us (under another name) - if so, keep em coming :wink:

Would anyone be interseted in hearing about my saddlecloth system. When it all boils down it is the numbers at the end of the day that make a difference. This system requires a bank to fully test, but I am supremely confident that it is a most logical investment betting system Any comments or anyone waiting for more ?

Cheers megamoos

[Chenille Prince]

We are always willing to hear about new systems on this forum megamoos, tell us more about your "saddlecloth system".

Thanks Chenille for your interest.
I will gather up a few statistics to justify my system suggestion and be back real soon

Cheers

[Paddy]

I’m certainly curious megamoos :wink:

Another interested party here, megamoos.

Don't get cold feet on us, megamoos :smile:

[Squirter]

Oi megamoos, where ya hiding.

I'm still here and I'm sure you're all waiting with nervous anticipation. I did say I had a saddlecloth system in the works.This is true and its looking good. I really need to get hold of winning saddlecloth numbers to be sure that this system will work. However, on my current estimates this system will make a very tidy profit. The system does not rely on the ability of any particular horse or jockey, but relies on the inevitability of certain saddlecloth numbers winning and winning regularly in such a way that the proposed bank of $2000 should not be threatened. It all I suppose seems a bit airyfairy, but I will expand upon it later. The aim is to win $50 per saddlecloth, bank the $50 and start again. Have I got your interest yet? I think my main problem with this system is establishing the bank. It's always the way, hey!

Cheers megamoos

[partypooper]

Megamos , I am on the edge of my seat!!!!

[Merriguy]

Aren't the saddle cloth numbers and the TAB numbers the same thing :???:

Yes its true merriguy, they are the same thing. I suppose I was just using the old traditional jargon before TAB came about merriguy! Any comments on the actual system though. Any further posts I make will be in normal forum under winning saddlecloth stats, not under winning TAB numbers.

Cheers megamoos

What's happening megamoos? your other thread has gone very quiet, system not up to it eh :smile:

Actually unlucky Phil. I've been keeping it quite There hasn't been much interest which I can't understand. I've also sampled NSW races (500) and have found consistent results. The system is actually a goer at present. I am trialling the system for amonth. I will provide my first weeks effort later soon. Thanks unlucky

Cheers megamoos

[El Gordo]

Looking forward to the return post megamoos :smile:

[ginger]

hi megamoos
a lot of people are interested but are not replying like myself we are waiting for some horses to look at good luck
cya

[BettyBoop]

Promises, promises megamoos, glad we're not holding our breath - no doubt afraid of the forum curse :lol:

Where have you gone megamoos?

I guess you're no longer with us megamoos.