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View Full Version : Place Staking & Selection Plan


Bhagwan
10th May 2002, 09:05 AM
Staking is
1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8=36 units.Its best to have 5 banks of 36units=180
1)You increase your bet by one unit, win or loose .
2)Once you hit 3 place getters , stop & start again.No matter if you lose a bit ,start again.
3)If you get to the 8th. bet , but have not struck 3 place getters ,start again from the beginning.
4)E.g. 10L+20P+30L+40L+50P+60P. now stop,start from the beginning again.

Works well ,even following TAB horses paying $2.90 & less for the win & backing for a place , just before jump.

becareful
10th May 2002, 10:25 AM
No offence Bhagwan but before anyone uses your plan I suggest they do some study in basic statistics and mathematically theory. All the staking plans you advocate WILL NOT WORK in the long run unless your average dividend multiplied by your strike rate is greater than 1 (in which case you can win more by betting with even stakes). For example if average div is $2.00 and strike rate is 45% then you will lose money (2 * .45 = .9), average div of $2.00 and strike rate of 55% is OK (2 * .55 = 1.1). This is basic mathematics and increasing your stakes does not overcome it - it just increases your long term losses. If you have a plan that gives a strike rate * ave. div. of greater than 1 then I am sure we would all love to hear about it.

Equine Investor
10th May 2002, 12:50 PM
Exactly becareful.

That's why many "professional" punters go broke backing favourites.

You must have a system that throws up occasional good priced winners and a good average dividend.

It's all mathematics -
Strike rate to dividend ratio.

You can have a strike rate of 1 winner in a thousand but the dividend is 2000/1, or you can have a strike rate of 1 winner in two and the dividend is 2/1....same thing.
The second strike rate just means more consistent winners but same profit at level stakes.

Bhagwan
12th May 2002, 06:26 AM
Dear becareful;
Thankyou for your mathermatical model & input.
Maybe you have a plan you would care to share with us all that produces a 1.1 result
Like all these staking plans, they only work if you can strike a handfull of results.
Like any idea shown any where, its always advisable to give it a dry run first to see if its suitable to your style of betting.

If your into level stakes betting .
Its an idea to find out its longest loosing run of outs
, then multiply that figure by 3.50

E.G. Longest run of outs experience before a winner gettting up was say 23*3.5 =81units needed as a betting bank.

12th May 2002, 08:14 AM
Dear becareful: ofcourse you can make good
profit on staking plan if you dont bet all
the time,and wait for a good thing comes up
maybe bet 2 horses a week the max.
the reason pro went broke its not because they bet fav but they like most of the punters dont have patience.if you got something better why dont you share it on the
forum instead of "becareful this and that "!
you might not bet at all, and after all any
type of gambling is a risk.:grin:

becareful
12th May 2002, 02:03 PM
mpunting/bhagwan,

Yes I do bet but no I am not willing to share my system at this point for a number of reasons:

1. I am still working on it - at the moment it is returning about a 10% return on bets placed BUT I have only been using it live for about 6 weeks - I am well aware that this is not sufficient to prove that the system works rather than me just being lucky.
2. A lot of the system is based on statistical analysis and mathematical theory - it seems a lot of people here would not understand that since they cant grasp the simple concept that a staking plan can not turn a losing system into a winning one.
3. I have spent approx. 9 months so far working on this (not full time!) so I am not going to just give that information away to the first person that asks.
4. At this stage I am betting with the TAB - as I have said before anyone who shares a TAB based system is a fool because you will destroy your own system (not so bad if you are betting off-shore like EI - if we bet his system on the TAB it doesnt affect him at all)

PS. No - I have no intention of selling the program I am developing - if it works I will use it myself.

My only intention with the posts I have made is to warn people that some of the ideas expressed by others should be treated with extreme caution. I have no problem with people using whatever schemes they want to for fun but it seems to me that there are quite a few people here who think they can make a lot of money without putting in the work to learn a bit about mathematics/statistics, how the TAB actually works, what the different race gradings are, how handicapping works, etc. This is like expecting to make a fortune on the stock market without knowing anything about shares, dividends, etc (just buying shares with an "A" in the name and if that doesn't work then buy twice as many B shares, etc)