A 1400m to 2040m system for everyone.

[crash]

I do all my serious punting by doing the form, so I don't mind sharing this system I have worked out in the last couple of days.

A 1400m to 2040m system that might just put a jingle in your pocket. Not a lot of bets but hey, it's profit we are after. There are some very strong form rules here.

All race meetings qualify.

1. Horse must have won at the track, in the condt. and the distance [anywhere].

2. Must have had 3 starts in and last start no more than 18 days ago.

3. Max weight is 57kg [ignore apprentice claims].

4. P/post odds must not be more than $ 6.50 or less than $3

5. Barrier position must be between 1 and 7 only.

6. If more than one qualifier, choose the runner with the lowest odds.


P/post odds and all the above info. can be found on the same page at:

http://tabform.thewest.com.au/jspcontent/TFFrameset.jsp [you must join but it's free].

I will post any runners that qualify tomorrow morning unless a stats man here does a run on this and declares it a Turkey [hopefully, I don't think so]. If you want to turn it into a personal system, do your own tweaking and keep it private or post suggestions here.

[La Mer]

[QUOTE=crash]I do all my serious punting by doing the form, so I don't mind sharing this system I have worked out in the last couple of days.

A 1400m to 2040m system that might just put a jingle in your pocket. Not a lot of bets but hey, it's profit we are after. There are some very strong form rules here.

All race meetings qualify.

1. Horse must have won at the track, in the condt. and the distance [anywhere].

2. Must have had 3 starts in and last start no more than 18 days ago.

3. Max weight is 57kg [ignore apprentice claims].

4. P/post odds must not be more than $ 6.50 or less than $3

5. Barrier position must be between 1 and 7 only.

6. If more than one qualifier, choose the runner with the lowest odds./QUOTE]

Crash - Results for Saturdays only last 12 months - all tracks

WIN PLACE
Races Bet : 390 389
Races Won : 83 230
S.R./Race : 21.3% 59.1%
Outlay ($): 449.00 447.00
Return : 377.90 422.10
$ Profit : -71.10 -24.90
% P.O.T. : -15.8% -5.6%

These results includes some races where there were more than one qualifier.

[crash]

Thanks La Mer,

The average number of qualifiers per Sat. you have come up with is 7.5 and seems rather large, but there was a rule I unfortunately left out that might have something to do with the large[ish] numbers:

7. No Stakes races, F&M, Cups races or races with more than 14 runners.

Do you have p/post odds in your data bank for other days beside Sat.? I would have been interested to know the results for the other 312 days in that year as other days are always a very different ball game from Sat. Can your stats. handle that and the above rule criteria as well ?

Hopefully taking out the above races and adding in the other six days will make a big difference to the final results. I hope so anyway.

Thanks La Mer.

[crash]

Last Saterday there where 2 wins from 5 races.

[complete rules]

Win bet only.
All race meetings qualify. Races between 1400m and 2040m.

1. No Stakes races, F&M, Cups races or races with more than 14 runners.

2. Horse must have won at the track, in the condt. and the distance [anywhere].

3. Must have had 3 starts in and last start no more than 18 days ago.

4. Max weight is 57kg [ignore apprentice claims].

5. P/post odds must not be more than $ 6.50 or less than $3

6. Barrier position must be between 1 and 7 only.

7. If more than one qualifier, choose the runner with the lowest odds and if still more than one, choose the runner with the lower TAB No.



P/post odds and all the above info. can be found on the same page at:

http://tabform.thewest.com.au/jspcontent/TFFrameset.jsp [you must join but it's free.

[crash]

There is only one bet today:

Rockhampton [10.27am or 11.27am S/States] R1/3 Spooky's Beach p/p $3.80

In form Jock and Trainer has best track SR. in this race.

Jokey/Trainer record among other info, for all races can be found at this page [no membership required]:

http://www.aapracingandsports.com.au/racing/pickmeet.asp

[crash]

Yesterdays selection crashed through the starting gate but wasn't removed from the race. It came a close up 4th.

What the system threw up for today:

Morphettville
R4/1 Stark Touch

Cranbourne
R3/8 Golden Tender

G/Coast
R7/4 Mezzegie

E/Farm
R3/8 Pistol night

[Merriguy]

Boy, Crash, those systems are coming fast! Like the logic behind them though. Thanks. Best of luck for today :)

[crash]

Well this certainly was a flop system today with a couple of placings only.

Never been a big system fan, but this one has some very firm form related rules. The big shock here is not the low number of runners the system produced, but all of the runners had win SR's of no more than 15% with one on 19%. What does that say about the standard of Sat. racing now ?

I guess a win SR rule of 30% could be added to the rules but that would have meant no selections for the day from about 10 meetings. I shudder to think of the race standard for the rest of the week and if any runners at all would be found by including that rule !!!

[partypooper]

Crash! what is it they say? one Swallow never made a "Spring", I've taken 30 odd years to accept that "PATIENCE" IS THE KEY!! and what dyer know ?? I'm actually beating the bastards!!!!! YES! I'm actually doing that! ok, so we never know what the future holds BUT, I'm VERY, VERY confidenty that I can continue. And guess what , ? I'm doing it with one plan that is ALL place betting!!! (the impossible remember??)

By the way digressing, I ran my system through with your distance rule and the pre-post rule and came up with VERY little difference, so I conclude that the DISTANCE is the main factor, as you have always maintained. Just as a matter of interest today one runner was eliminatae because of distance that was "Urban Chill" (unplaced) the other 5 ALL placed!!!!

[crash]

Hi Party,
I'm impressed by anyone who can show a profit from place, betting. well done !!

Perhaps you could run my other system here through your stats for win/place as they all placed except the WA runner. Any improvement suggestions would also be welcome.

[davez]

just out of interest partypooper do you run a staking plan of any sort or do you use level stakes?

the reason i ask is that the only way i have managed to beat this game for any extended period (and make it worthwhile) is by staking, which is not the most relaxing way to spend the day but does get the job done.

[partypooper]

Crash, can't do a lot with stats as I only have my own data base with my own system selections for the past 4 years (2 years actual bets), so although I can query this with things like distance etc it only applies to my system selections. But as you say somethings seem to improve s/r or POT regardless.

Davez, not really a staking plan with the place betting, but I use a % of the bank so I suppose it is really.

On my win betting I do use a staking plan (basically target betting) but it is VERY conservative with many built in safety factors, reserve banks, maximum run of outs b4 a safety brake etc. One thing that is unusual I suppose, is that I run 4 seperate banks on two coupled selections betting week to week (Sat only) this means that all my bets are worked out b4 hand and all bets are placed b4 racing. (all at maxi-divi of course)
However the selection show a LEVEL stakes profit anyway so as long as that holds up I will keep on doing what I'm doing. The selections are NOT mechanical but the staking definitly is.