WTA

[Marco]

Ana Ivanovic v Maria Vento-Kabchi
Qatar Open

New 'wonderkid' Ivanovic up against a very ordinary Vento-Kabchi whose recent form has been, to say the least, poor. Ivanovic has some great scalps in 2005 and recently won her first WTA tournament (Canberra).

$1.33 available WillHill - 1 unit.

Players to be weary in Qatar - Bartoli (suspect knee), Bovina (resuming form long injury layoff), Sharapova(resuming from flu), Suarez (resuming from long layoff - dodgy foot)

Dally Randriantefy v Angela Haynes
Acupulco

True clay courter and experienced Randriantefy up against young hard court player Haynes who rarely competes on the dirt. Haynes is also coming off some ordinary form last week losing to qulaifier Bondarenko. Career marred by nagging shoulder injury.

$1.40 available at 5Dimes - 1 unit.

Players to be weary of in Acupulco - LlagosteraVives (recent tendonitis), Domachowska (recent shoulder strain)

[thebookie]

Interesting first post...

[moeee]

I thought WTA was an abbreviation for Wangaratta.
Surely it's not Weight To Age?

[Marco]

Stosur vs Sugiyama
Qatar

Stosur's progressed through the qualies even though she was beaten by the impressive Kirilenko in the third round. However both girls knew before the game started that the loser would progress to the main draw as the "lucky loser" - so I'm not too concerned about the result. Sugiyama's played
poorly since last year's US Open and has lost her four games this season (including some ordinary opponents). She's still a good player but is getting old by tennis standards so her career may well have peaked (she ceratinly doesn't move as well anymore). Stosur'warm up through the qualies, her strong start to 2005 season (two hardcourt finals appearances), and her ability to hold her own serve make her good value.

Stosur $1.87 @ SportOdds

[Marco]

Schiavone v Sugiyama
Qatar

I stick by my assessment of Sugiyama and put her win over Stosur down to Samantha's very ordinary play. Her serve and volley was so confused that Sugiyama continuously passed her down the line. Schiavone, while not setting the world on fire this season, has only lost to quality players such as Myskina and Molik. She also has solid 3-0 h2h record against Sugiyama with these wins coming while Sugiyama was in top form.

Schiavone $1.51 @ Pinnacle.

Domachowska v Osterloh
Acapulco

According to yesterday’s interview, Domachowska is over her shoulder complaint and displaying confidence. She traveled to Mexico a week early to acclimatize to the conditions after her short layoff so should be ready for the match. Domachowska prefers clay and is 53 wins/23 losses while Osterloh is 24/41 on the dirt. The first round didn’t provide much insight – Domachowska warming up by thrashing a “no name” and Osterloh getting past a lackluster Waters (who is no star on clay either).

Domachowska $1.40 generally available

[Marco]

Randriantefy vs Perebiynis

Slightly riskier proposition. Randriantefy is one those players who always starts the season slowly and then improves during the clay swing. Her 108/55 record on the dirt speaks for itself, even though a fair proportion of those games were on the end of year clay court Challenger circuit. Perebiynis is no slouch on the dirt but doesn't have Randriantefy's experience. Her poor start to the season and early departure from Bogata (clay) last week may count against her. Perebiynis won their only encounter but this was at the Olympics and on a different surface so I'm not sure what conclusions can be drawn.Slight edge to Randraintefy at the price.

Randriantefy $1.76 @ 5Dimes

[karla909]

Thanks for the tip on the WTA.

Didn't have much on but enjoyed the win

Do you post here often?

karla

[Marco]

Gagliardi vs Serra Zanetti
Acapulco

Gagliardi's a clear favourite for mine. Her 6-2 6-1 domination of Pin in the first round was rather encouraging while Serra Zanetti surprised many by beating the competent Llagostera Vives. However Llagostera Vives withdrew from Bogata last week with leg tendonitis and was a doubtful starter for this tournament. Head to head's favour Gagliardi 2-0 and while only one was on Clay (Italian Open 2001), both players had similar rankings to their current status (result 6-3 6-0). Gagliardi's slow start to the year is offset by Serra Zanetti's 1win/5loss since January, plus Gagliardi has the advantage of a good Clay workout in Bogata last week.

Gagliardi $1.55 @ 5Dimes

Pennetta vs Diaz-Oliva
Acapulco
Another favourite at a short price. Pennetta's in the best form of her career as displayed in her strong showing against Schruff in the first round. She did drop an early game but soon closed Schruff out with top rate finishing. Of course Diaz-Oliva is capable of an upset but I think it unlikely. She made the final in Acupulco in 2003 but was very lucky with Suarez's first round retirement and then only beat the likes of Muller, Vaskova and a clay-shy Asagoe. Since then Diaz-Oliva has only beaten one Top-50 player in 20 or so tour games with most of her time being spent on the challenger circuit.My calculations rate Pennetta as a 77.8 per cent chance so there's value at the price.

Pennetta $1.42 @ 5Dimes

[Marco]

Martinez vs Hantuchova

The glamorous Hantuchova vs the dour old war-horse Martinez is generating lots of punting action on the exchanges. Martinez upset the classy Myskina yesterday and played very well. Her serve was a little inconsistent but she was superb from the baseline which will suit against Hantuchova's style.
Martinez also recently beat young up-and-comers Peer, Groenefeld and Linetskya showing she still has plenty in the tank during what will be her last year on tour. To quote Martinez " "I feel healthy. Beating the No.5 in the world does a lot for my confidence. It took a few days to get used to the conditions here but I'm playing well, aggressive, and I didn't let her play her game today." Hantuchova got passed the talented Bovina yesterday in 3 sets but it's hard to draw conclusions as Bovina was returning from an injury layoff. It's generally thought that Hantuchova lacks the patience needed to counter Martinez's very crafty slice and spin - great to watch. Head to heads favour Martinez 3-1. Interestingly she opened at $2.83 at Pinnacle but the price was hammered in to $2.54 within 15 minutes.

Martinez $2.54 @ Pinnacle

[Marco]

Randriantefy vs Loit
Acapulco

I've explained above my general feelings on Radriantefy. Loit is certainly on her favourite surface but has played rather inconsistantly this year. Her recent loss to the lowly ranked Fernandez, her struggle against Beltrame in Round 2 and 0/4 start to the hardcourt season suggests she is vulnerable. Loit leads the h2h - all of which were on clay - but all of which were relatively close. I don't believe she should be this short in the market so Randriantefy represents value.

Randriantefy $2.75 @ Sportingbet.


Pennetta vs Osterloh.
Acapulco

Again, I've explaied my general feelings on both these players above. Osterloh is really riding her luck - this is her best clay performance ever - in what has been an ordinary season for her. However her luck runs out today as Pennetta has been magnificent this week in Acupulco and last week in Bogota. Every one will agree that there's been some upsets this week but I surprised Pennetta isn't shorter than her current quotes. It's hard to make money in the long term betting so short but I still believe there's value in today's price.

Pennetta @$1.24 @ Sportodds.

[Marco]

Randriantefy v Cervanova
Acapulco

I've ridden the Randriantefy wave this far so I'll try her one more time. Cervanova definitely has the game to beat the Madagascan and I'm predicting a close affair. However Randriantefy is the more experienced player and has performed more consistently over a longer period of time. Both have played well this week though Randriantefy has beaten a better class of opponent (both have won in straight sets). Cervanova's early exit from Bogata last week wasn't the best preparation making Randraintefy her first solid clay opponent this week. Neither are power hitters or big servers so expect a few service breaks.

Randriantefy $1.80 @ 5Dimes


Pennetta vs Serra Zanetti
Acapulco

Very surprised at the early prices offered on Pennetta. She's in terrific form and after a small hiccup during yesterday's first set, went on to demolish Osterloh. Perhaps the price is being driven by the H2h record which favours Zanetti 4-0 (3 of which were on clay). However the clay matches were in 1999-2000 seasons and relate to a totally different period and dynamic (as indicated by the players WTA rankings). Both players are Italian and know each others game as can be expected, but I just don't think Zanetti (ranked 118) has the current form or skill to match the 23-year-old Italian (ranked 30). When Zanetti beat Pennetta she held a higher ranking which is far from the case today. My only query would be the fatigue factor after winning in Bogata last week and competing in the singles and doubles here in Acapulco. Nevertheless, all factors point to a Pennetta win and at the price she represents tremendous value.

Pennetta $1.42 @ SportsTab

[Betsy]

Any thoughts on Molik ($3.00) vs. Sharapova ($1.37)? I'm thinking of having a small 'recreational' wager on Molik just for aussie pride

[Marco]

Pennetta vs Cervanova
Acapulco

The short price has made me think twice about this bet but I believe Pennetta still represents value (rated 72.6%) and that she has the momentum and game to beat Cervanova. There's no doubt Cervanova played extremely well against Randriantefy yesterday - especially during the third set. However finals pressure may count against her - she lost to Loit in her only other finals appearance (Casablanca; Clay; 2004) and has lost her four other semifinal appearances - all on clay. It can be argued that Cervanova has lifted her game and improved more than Pennetta during the week but I still rate her well below the Italian. Of course an upset is always possible and fatigue could be factor in Pennetta's performance - she complained of leg pains during her match with Osterloh - but this didn't seem to affect her yesterday. Luckily Serra Zanetti put in a meek performance in the semi final saving Pennetta from a physically drainig effort. She's also sounding very upbeat: "I like it here very much. I've always said that this is one of my favorite tournaments." Note that Cervanova won their only meeting but this was a hardcourt game in Indian Wells last year.

Pennetta $1.41 @ 5Dimes

[Marco]

Week 1

14 Bets: 9 Wins 5 Losses
At flat stakes: Bet 14 units; Win 0.37 units; ROI 2.6%.

A below target week but always 'tricky' at this time of year moving from hard to clay (Acupulco bets). There were a few surprises during the week - Domachowska's loss but beaten by a better player on the day so no complaints. Gagliardi is my 'whinge of the week' - she lead Serra Zanetti
4-1 in the first set and was 40-0 serving for 5-1. The set went to a tie break!! Gagliardi broke Zanetti but managed to lose the set. Gagliardi was then serving first in the second set (an advantage in tennis), broke Serra Zanetti but went on to lose. This isn't a proper 'whinge' - just an opportunity to make note's about Gagliardi's consistency.

Dubai hardcourt this week - should be some good value opportunities.

[Marco]

Schnyder v Maleeva
Dubai

Fourteenth ranked Schnyder has - despite a few minor hiccups - had a strong start to 2005. Her 14-4 season includes good wins over Golovin and Dementieva and a straightforward win over Maleeva (rank 29) in Sydney. Schnyder's coming off some ordinary form by her standards- she didn't play particularly well in her loss to Kirilenko last week and was fortunate to
get past Na Li the week prior. However her 131/88 hardcourt record reflects her experience and ability and while the overall h2h favours Maleeva 3-2, their 2 hardcourt encounters have gone to Schnyder (the other games predated were also some years ago). The Bulgarian is certainly no easy-beat having put up a good 3-set fight against Molik on Antwerp's indoor carpet a few weeks back and another 3-set battle against the in-form Hantuchova in Qatar last week (note she lost both games). However Maleeva is more of an all rounder than a hardcourt specialist (95/88 on hard) and she lacks a decisive weapon. Her season was also interrupted by a shoulder strain earlier this month (withdrew Tokyo).

Schnyder $1.53 @ 5Dimes
(This is an early line, there maybe better prices).


Notes: A couple of players to be wary of in Dubai: Sania Mirza - last start winner but resuming from an ankle injury that's seen her offcourt for two weeks. Paola Suarez - second start back from a long spell and a bit underdone. Jelena Jankovic scratched from Qatar last week with right shoulder strain. Farina Elia's also been struggling with a right shoulder strain.

[Marco]

Mirza v Kostanic.
Dubai

I'm going to contradict my own advice and back Mirza who is returning from an ankle injury. She played and won in the doubles qualifying yesterday and all reports are she is free of any major problems. I watched an interview on Star and she really is a confident young player."My aim is to win the first round, I am not looking much beyond that at the moment" . . . "The preparations have been going well. My ankle still bothers me, but it is not a major concern". Her opponent Kostanic, though ranked 36th, has had a woeful start to 2005, winning only two matches - one of which was a 3-set affair against wildcard and lowly ranked Delacqua (Australian Open). Kostanic's other win was another 3 set affair against the moderate Camerin. Having said all this Kostanic isn't an easy beat, she's a competent all rounder who has been more consistent in the doubles this season. The prices are close which may reflect injury concerns but I still think there's value. Mirza said the event is very important to her momentum (she won Indian Open) and perhaps if her ankle was too problematic, she wouldn't have added the burden of playing doubles.

Mirza $1.87 @ 5Dimes

[karla909]

Hi Marco

I notice that you quote both Pinnacle & 5dimes in your WTA assessments. I only have Centrebet that does WTA and their prices are somewhat shorter than your quotes.

I take it that you actually bet with them and u r Aussie.

I have heard good things about then from other sources. Are u happy with both of them and have you withdrawn funds from them?


thanks
Karla

[Marco]

Li vs Sugiyama
Dubai

I make the gnarly Na Li a 61.1% favourite in this match-up. Li (ranked 46 - a career high) came through qualifiers by easily beating Muller and Barna and then pipping Black in a close contest. She's young, tenacious and has made a solid start to 2005 by going 11/5 - all on hard. Moreover her record on hardcourts since 2001 is 77/18 and she clearly favours the fast conditions.
Li's ranking has also jumped over 200 places in 6 months while Sugiyama's has been slowly drifiting in the opposite direction. However Sugiyama shouldn't be underestimated because on her day, she's a proven performer. By these standards though, she's had a very poor start to 2005. Her only win in 6
matches came against Stosur last week - a match Stosur lost through sloppy play as opposed to Sugiyama playing well. Sugiyama did improve in her next match against Schiavone and though losing, took the game to 3 sets. Still Li has the momentum and form from qualifying so is in good shape to take the match.

Na Li $1.85 @ 5Dimes


Zheng vs Medina-Garrigues

Zheng (ranked 65) is another played who has performed well in qualifying this week with wins over Ruano Pascual and Camerin - both of whom have similar ratings to Medina-Garrigues(ranked 43). Zheng's had a good season thus far: she won the Hobart hardcourt with wins over Na Li, Dulko, and Asagoe (all reasonable players); she lost in the first round of Aussie Open to the classy Safina but it was a relatively close 3-setter, and she also took Mirza to 3 sets in Hyderabad (Mirza went on to win). In contrast, Medina-Garrigues has won only 1 of her 6 matches this season. To be fair she's had tough draws having come up against the likes of Pierce, Molik and Petrova. Then again Garrigues was beaten by Dulko last week - a player Zheng thrashed in the Hobart final. In short, the conditions should suit the hardcourt specialist and match-ready Zheng.

Zheng $1.47 @ 5dimes


Notes: Douchevina had a great qualifying win over young superstar Ivanovic and may well surprise Dechy who withdrew from Qatar last week with an illness. Always hard coming in cold - but Douchevina's too inconsistent to bet on. Similarly Likhovtseva is way too short in the market - she also withdrew
at late notice with an illness last week. Sfar is capable and appears highly motivated during interviews this week. Would like to play Bovina at the $1.70 but she's only third start back from long injury lay-off so question mark over her match fitness(h2h 7-2 Bovina).

[Sportz]

Karla909,

I don't think he's paying any attention to you.

[Marco]

karla

My oversight - was in a hurry and missed your post. Apologies.
5Dimes and Pinnacle best 'outs' for tennis and I've had no problems.
Will take large bets - unlike some - and seem to have solid reputations.
And yes, I'm in Australia.

[Marco]

Bartoli vs Dulko
Dubai

French teenage sensation Bartoli is yet another who has performed well
in qualifying with wins over Talaja, Foretz and Voskoboeva. She's in solid
form this year and has showed considerable fighting spirit and great baseline
play when up against the likes of Sharapova. Bartoli had good showings in Paris and Doha while her opponent Dulko has had mixed results. A good showing in Hobart in January was followed by some very mixed form as demonstrated last week against Medina-Garrigues and her total capitulation to Sharapova.Dulko always seems to play better on the US hardcourt swing so I expect improved resultsin the coming weeks. Despite a slight knee niggle earlier this month (forced retirement), the match-ready Bartoli justifies her odds. I rate her a 71.1% chance.

Bartoli $1.45 @ SportsTab or StanJames
(1.25 hours till game time)

[thebookie]

Yeah, all true, but...Dulko is HOT!

And let's face it-that's the only reason we watch women's tennis!

Now, where's Tatiana Golovin???

[karla909]

Excellent work Marcos. 5 from 5.

One last question about Pinnacle if I can be indulgent.

Did u use the Paypal option or the direct deposit through Shanghai. They don't accept direct payments thru my Visa card.

Keep up the good work

Karla

[karla909]

Sorry Marco

Pinnacle - should read Netteller (not Paypal)

[Marco]

Update

19 Bets: 14 wins 5 losses
At Flat stakes: Bet 19; Won 3.49; ROI 18.3%.

Slight break as had to have appendics out. Back very soon.

Karla - Neteller option's ok.

[Marco]

A big couple of weeks coming up in the WTA with Indian Wells and Nasdaq
so should be plenty of betting opportunities. This weeks tournament starts
tonight and is 16 hours behind AEST. Website has livescoring:
http://www.pacificlifeopen.com

There's six first round matches tomorrow involving qualifiers that haven't had lines posted yet so I may add extra games later.

Karatancheva v Weingartner
Indian Wells

Bet of the day - Karantancheva is another teenager with heaps of talent. She's 9-3 for the season with good wins over Peer and Linetskya and has a 40/9 hardcourt career record. While many of Karaantancheva's opponents havebeen lowly rated qualifiers, Weingartner - while competent - has had a mixed season and is 85/107 on hard over her career. In fact Weingartner's ranking has been stagnant for over 12 months while her Bulgarian opponent has been moving forward in leaps and bounds. Karantancheva also
made the third round last year being beaten by Sharapova in a hard fought 3-sets - Weingartner didn't play in 2004 and was defeated in first round of qualifiers in 2003.

Karantancheva $1.70 @ William Hill.


Granville vs Irvin
Indian Wells

Granville (rank 87) is having a mixed season, playing ordinarily at
WTA tournaments but winning her last two challenger tournaments -
St Paul and Midlands (both US hardcourts). These include good wins
against the in-form Morigami and up-and-comer Cho in the finals. Irvin
(ranked 71) is, in short, having a dismal year and is 1-4 this season.Her
only win came against the lowly rated Pisnik on clay. Players that have
beaten Irvin include Frazier, Craybas and Haynes all of whom are similar
in class to Granville. Irvin holds the H2H 1-0 but the game was from 2001
and barely rates mention. Both made the fourth round last year though Irvin
entered the tourney in far better form. A close game but Granville to prevail.

Granville $1.70 Gamebookers & 5Dime


Spears vs Kurhajcova

Spears at home and the hardcourt specialist - 86/60 for career - has had a steady 2005 with good wins over Shaughnessy and Craybas and a close loss to the talented Dulko. Spears hasn't played here too often, being knocked out in the first round of qualifiers last year. Kurhajcova made the second round last year but her form this season has been abysmal, going 1-5 with her only win coming on clay. Her record on hard is 43/45 and she definitely prefers the dirt which accounts for most of her ranking. Having said that, she's capable of an upset but it would require a major form reversal. Spears has stated in interviews that this tournament means a lot to her so I expect her motivation to be high. She also won their only H2H, a closely fought Quebec hardcourt match last year.

Spears $1.56 @ 5Dimes


Notes - Steer clear of Kapros who's coming off an injury in Doha 2 weeks ago (Hip dysfunction). If you like
short odds Craybas should demolish her 14-year-old wildcard entry opponent.

[Marco]

Adding a couple of matches involving qualifiers as mentioned in last post.
Lines have now been posted.

Pin v Llagostera-Vives
Indian Wells

Pin's had a couple of solid results from qualifying and should be match ready.
She hasn't done too much this season though had a reasonable tournament in Antwerp and is competent on hard going 72/53 over her career. Her opponent Vives is first up returning from right leg tendonitis which forced her to withdraw from Bogata. She's also more at home on clay and is a more modest 44/38 on hard over her career. Pin with a couple of solid warm up games under her belt should be too much for the underdone Vives.

Pin $1.53 Sportingbet & Sportingodds

Kirilenko v Perebiynis
Indian Wells

Kirilenko's running hot at the moment and deserves to be at short odds. She's had a couple of good matches in qualifying and is in good form going 11-5 this season. This includes wins over Schnyder, Na Li and Shaui Peng - all classy hardcourters and close losses to Hantuchova and Ivanovic. She's 69/28 on hard over her career and has seen her ranking increase more than 30 places this year. Her opponent Perebiynis shouldn't be underestimated as she has the skills to win. However she's had an ordinary 2005 going 2-5 thus far with one of her wins coming on clay. Doesn't seem to play too well on the American hardcourt swing and has a career hardcourt record of 50/52.

Kirilenko $1.40 @ Pinnacle.


Notes: Daniilidou has withdrawn - still suffering inflammed right thumb. Replaced by lucky-loser Bondarenko. Steer clear of Bedanova as first game back since retiring from Ortesi a month ago.

[Marco]

Update: 23 Bets, 17 wins, 6 losses
At Flat Stakes: Bet 23; Won 4.15; ROI 18%


A tad lucky this morning with Granville and Spears squeaking home but good win to Kirilenko and poor loss for Pin. Yesterday's pick, 15-year-old Karatancheva, plays tonight.


Cho vs Marrero
Indian Wells

I rate up-and-comer Cho as one to watch. She has a good all-round game, fights for every point and has had a good start to the season in going 11/5 (she's risen approx 60 places in the rankings this season). Cho's also an out-and-out hardcourter (97 wins/64 losses) while Marrero is more at home on clay. Marrero's 46/54 on hard and is 1-4 this season and while she has a considerably higher WTA ranking, this is down to her clay court results. Even so, she's still drifted about 20 ranking places this season. Marrero did qualify here last year and went on to reach the third round so she's capable of winning, however she entered last years tournament in much better form.

Cho $1.80 @ Sportodds (and others)



Vaidisova v Washington
Indian Wells

Red-hot teenager Vaidisova versus struggling Washington. The Czech wonderkid is having a strong 2005 (7/3) with impressive wins over Shaughnessy, Groenefeld and Safina - and close losses to Davenport and Shaughnessy (in Memphis). Washington is 4/4 for 2005 with 3 of those wins coming against lowly rated qualifiers in Sydney. Vaidisova is at short odds but still offers value - I rate her a 76.6% chance of winning.

Vaidisova $1.36 @ Sportodds and Gamebookers
(early line - may be better prices later).


Notes: I'll post extra plays as lines become available around 10.30 AEST.

[Marco]

Haynes v Santangelo
Indian Wells

Hardcourt specialist Haynes playing in her own backyard should have too much for the erratic and somewhat underdone Santangelo. Haynes has made good progress in the ranking s over the past 6 months and has had steady if unspectacular start. She made special mention in interviews about playing well here in front of her 'home' crowd and family who will be in attendance so Hayne's motivation should be high. Santangelo is best labelled erratic as she seldom wins wo games in a row. She surprised everyone by reaching the fourht round of the Australian Open in 2004 but has achieved little since. Santangelo also showed glimpses of her talent at Auckland in January and as a good vollyer and is capable of an upset, but in the end I think Haynes will have too much power.

Haynes $1.87 @ 5Dimes.

[Marco]

Late mail - Angela Haynes has picked up a leg injury and may struggle to complete her match against Santangelo. The game starts in half-an-hour and while the bet stands, it has certainly lost its value.

[Marco]

Update

27 bets: 21 Wins; 6 Losses
At Flat Stakes: Bet 27; Won 6.88; ROI 25.4%

Well Haynes managed to do the job despite a few injury timeouts and courtside treatment. Relatively tight matches for Karatancheva, Vaidisova and Cho, but all won through.

Second Round tips posted around 8:30 AEST.

[sparkus8]

Congrats mate. I had Karatancheva and Vaidisova as well, had a little bit of a scare especially with Karatancheva and her 16 double faults!!

Look forward to your tips tonight. Do you follow the ATP as well? That is my mainstay and it would be good to have someone to bounce ideas off.

[karla909]

I extend my congratulations for a great effort 4/4

the prices for womens tennis sure vary.

Karatancheva 1.70 - william hill
1.46 centerbet
1.57 ladbrooks

Do you find this sort of thing often. Could have bet both sides.

Must get that Pinnacle account organised.

Thanks again
Karla

ps - sparkus8 - I do ATP - see u soon at that thread

[sparkus8]

Good stuff Karla, I will definitely make a visit to the ATP thred :)

[Marco]

I expect more variable results today as I back a few match-ready outsiders versus overvalued favourites coming in cold off a bye.

Kirilenko v Bovina
Indian Wells

A closer match than it appears on paper. Bovina is undoubtedly a great talent - you don't rank 15 in the world without being able to play. However I thinks there's a couple of things running agianst her. First she's only played four games this season as she's returning from a long injury layoff. Secondly Bovina's first up at Indian Wells having had a first round bye. Her opponent Kirilenko is a young player of great talent who came through qualifications and Round One without any problems. She's also in good form this season making the QF's in Doha which included a good win against Schnyder. She also performed well in Hyderabad - losing a close SF match to eventual winner Mirza. Her Hyderabad performance also included a good win over Na Li. I still rate Bovina the favourite at 65.9 v 34.1 but I'm willing to take the value on Kirilenko. She may not have Bovina's skill or experience but she has the game to win and a has had a slightly better preparation. Looking for an upset.

Kirilenko @ $3.35 - Pinnacle


Domachowska v Medina-Garrigues.
Indian Wells

Domachowska's coming off a good First Round win over Salerni (who had 2 good wins in qualifying: Castano and Dokic) so should be full of confidence and used to the conditions. Domachowska's also a competent hardcourter going 46/21 over her career, though she's had a mixed start to 2005. A minor shoulder strain at Hyderabad has slowed her down but her comeback has been positive enough. What I do like is her positive attitude which has helped
her rise about places in the rankings over the past 6 months. Her opponent Garrigues has had a shocking start to the season going 0-5 (4 hardcourt, 1 carpet). it must be said that she came up against some class opponents such as Molik, Pretrova and Dulko, but it's hardly ideal preparation for a player who is more at home on clay. That said, Garrigues won't be a pushover but Domachowska should prevail.

Domachowska $1.65 - generally available.


Jackson v Suarez
Indian Wells

Looking fo another upset here. Suarez is a class act returning from a long injury layoff. Her two comeback games were both easy losses to Bartoli (Doha) and Jankovic (Dubai). While a solid hardcourter who has performed reasonably well here before, she's much more at home on clay. Her opponent, the young and relatively inexperienced Jackson, has been slowly climbing the
rankings over the past few months. She's a respectable 46/26 on hard over her career, though a lot of her early games were on the challenger circuit. Good wins over Karatancheva and Frazier in Memphis and a close 3-set loss to Vaidisova means she certainly has the talent to win. A good Round One win
yesterday over Barna should be good preparation for this match-up. I'm not underestimating Suarez, this should be close.


Jackson $2.00 @ Pinnacle.


MarianaDiaz vs Dulko.
Indian Wells

I have this match much closer than the bookies. Both women prefer clay but are competent hardcourters. Dulko made the QF's here last year but had good preparation coming through the 2004 qualifiers. This year she's had a First Round bye and meets an in form DiazOliva who's had the benefit 3 matches here already. These included wins over Hopkins, Drake, and Brandi all of whom are capable players on hard. The H2H stands at 1-1 but with both games being very close. The first was a 3-set qualifier at Indian Wells 2001 while the second saw DiazOliva beat Dulko at this year's Australian Open (where she also put up a good fight against Kuznetsova). I still rate Dulko the favourite at 53.9% v 46.1% so there's a bit of value on the outsider.

DiazOliva $2.30 @ Pinnacle.

Notes. Be wary of Groenefeld who's first game back from injury.

[Marco]

Thanks - bit of a streak at the moment but this will flatten out over time.

Karla prices do vary - Bookies don't hold much on WTA so easier to move the odds. Karantacheva was available at $1.67 @ Ladbrokes and elsewhere for quite a few hours so it's more the timing of when you're checking prices and how the market moves. prices will sometimes drift the other way - like Haynes yesterday.
The bets suggested today will all drift in my opinion so get in early. Kirilenko will definitely shorten as will DiazOlivia.

Sparks - don't handicap the ATP - I find it takes enough time to compile my database and run my programs just doing the WTA. Prefer to specialise.

[karla909]

morning marco

woke up to the headline

Kirilenko Upsets Bovina

upset everyone but us.

If it's ok can u give us a bit of background on this. Like how you went overall last year.

Like to bet more but I am very conservative.

thanks to a great start to the day.

managed to get closer to top odds today.

Karla

[Marco]

Couple of early tips to help people get the early prices. I'll be surprised if these odds last. More games posted later this afternoon.

Cho vs Stosur
Indian Wells

I'm gobsmacked that Stosur is priced so short. Sure she's ranked 47 versus Cho's 113 and sure, she had a good run in January this year at Hobart and Sydney. However Stosur's acheived little since by failing to qualify in Dubai last week and only qualifying in Doha the week prior as a lucky-loser. I also watched her lacklustre loss against an out-of-form Sugiyama - she was so ordianry she handed Sugiyama her first win for the year. Cho's certainly in-form and has had the advantage of a solid first round warm up against Marrero whereas Stosur is coming of the bye. The underrated Cho is no mug on hardcourts with a 97/64 career record, and while a few of these games were on the challenger circuit the same applies to Stosur's 70/57 career record. Having said all this I rate Stosur a marginal favourite at 53.4% vs 46.6% so value is with the outsider Cho. She'll have to play well to win but if Stosur's current form continues Cho's in with a good shout.

Cho $3.00 @ Ladbrokes
(a very early line - may be better prices later - watch the market)

Vaidsova vs Sprem
If I was shocked at Stosur's price then I'm just as shocked at Sprems. I rate Vaidisova a clear favourite here and I'll be surprised if her price doesn't come in. Sprem hasn't played since Antwerp's carpet where she sufferred a lower back injury and had a first round bye so she must be underdone. Her 2005 has gone 4-4 so even prior to her injury she wasn't in great form. Her first game back is against the red hot Vaidisova whose form expolits have been filling the media pages. She's 7-3 for the season and 35/8 on hard over her career. She easily accounted for Washington in the first round, she's risen 60 places in the rankings in the past 6 months (Sprem's been static) and despite lacking experience, she's a tremendous talent. Anything can happen in tennis and Sprem can clearly win, but at these odds Vaidisova is value.

Vaidisova $1.83 at Ladbrokes.
(unfortunately Ladbrokes opened at $2.00 but the lined moved quickly as people like me piled on)

[Marco]

Update

31 bets: 24 Wins; 7 Losses
At Flat Stakes: Bet 31; Win 10.53; ROI 33.9%

Kirilenko in a cakewalk, Jackson and DiazOliva in squeakers and Domachowska a poor loss. Still, a very good return for the day.

The two games already posted are the only tips today. Prices still available.

Notes:
Further to these games, Sprem has withdrawn from the forthcoming Federation Cup (Croatia v Thailand) so as not to stress her recuperating back injury. Possibly not 100% at the moment as mentioned in tips post. Stosur lost in the doubles today which is hardly a morale boost leading into tomorrow's match with Cho.

For what it's worth, Craybas ($3.10) may go close to beating Likhovtseva but I'm not quite confident enough - both players a bit inconsistent at the moment.

[Marco]

Karla - sorry missed your question this morning. More than happy to answer queries etc but might be easier via email rather than clogging up this thread.
Send through an address if you're happy to do so.

[karla909]

It would be great to hear from you.

I am at wendyl@austarnet.com.au

congrats on today. Always think its wierd when the shortest price pick is the only one that looses,. Congrats again

I handicapped WTA with the same formulas as ATP and gave up in financial fustration after 4 years. So I admire u greatly

Karla

[Marco]

Update

33 Bets: 25 wins; 8 losses
At Flat Stakes: Bet 33; Won 10.36; ROI 31.4%

Small loss for the day (.17 unit; 8.5% of day's stake) with Cho falling to Stosur.
Those early enough to get the $2.00 on Vaidisova would have broken even as she beat Sprem fairly easily.

The third round traditionally presents few beting opportunities as the heavyweights come up against the middleweights and lightweights. Probably
back to short prices. After this round finishes I should post around 8pm AEST.

[Marco]

Kirilenko v Medina-Garrigues
Indian Wells

If you read the previous posts on these two players you'll understand why I'm backing Kirilenko. Reasonably short odds but still value at the price. Kirilenko
is in better form and is the better hardcourt player by some margin. I didn't expect Garrigues to get this far but today is a big step up for someone who just won her first game for the year.

Kirilenko $1.36 @ Ladbrokes
Bookies a bit slow to price up today but I don't think there'll be better
prices on Kirilenko.

Notes: I'm keen on Conchita Martinez over Jackson tonight but we're right on the value line. That is, I need $1.38 minimum for value and the price is currently $1.36. I won't get a chance to post again prior to the match, but if the price drifts then I'd take the bet. I won't record this in the history either way but its a sound bet at $1.38 or better - (the bookies being a bit slow is making for a long day).

[Marco]

Update and Day 6

34 Bets: 26 Wins; 8 Losses
At Flat Stakes: Bet 34; Win 10.72; ROI 31.5%


Kirilenko saluted the judges yesterday as did our unofficial (won't be recorded) tip Martinez. I don't know if anybody managed to get the $1.38 on Martinez - the best I saw at my various bookies was $1.37 though I only had limited time to check yesterday.


Vaidisova V Pierce
Indian Wells

I've written quite a bit about Vaidisova over the past few posts so I won't repeat myself. Needless to say she's a red-hot youngster coming up against an experienced yet past-her-best Mary Pierce. I thought long and hard about posting this bet. While Vaidisova is a clear favourite in my stats (58.5% v 41.5%), she's only 15 and is relatively untested at this level. Pierce has the experience and on her day can still compete at the top level - however her recent results leave a lot to be desired. She's played very little this year (6 games) and this is only her second hardcourt tournament for 2005. She displayed a competent yet somewhat erratic performance against Cervanova in Round 2, but it's this variablitly in her performance that leaves her vulnerable. This will be a close match but on the balance of probabilites, Vaidisova is value.

Vaidisova; $1.91 - Pinnacle & 5Dimes


Kirkland v Craybas
Indian Wells

Another close match up. Kirkland is a young American with a strong serve and plenty of attitude. She's probably exceeded expectations in this tournament but has been impressive in her general play. Kirkland did benefit from an injury-plagued performance from Bartoli in Round 2, but has beaten the likes of Cho, Granados,and Diaz-Oliva on hardcourts this year. Her 42/25
record on hard reflects her overall talent. Kirkland's opponent Craybas has been having an ordinary season, so-much-so she dropped back tp the challenger circuit last month. However her losses this season have mostly been close 3-set affairs to reasonable opponents so she'll definitely push Kirkland all the way. Craybas also recorded a solid win against the over-rated Likhovtseva in Round 2. I split the match 50/50 so there's value on Kirkland at the price.

Kirkland; $2.20 @ Ladbrokes
(can't see this price lasting too long but still available).


Dechy v Stosur.
Indian Wells

Stosur surprised me by passing Cho in the previous round and her effort was a definite improvement upon recent performances. However Dechy should have too much for her today. The Frenchy has quite a few ranking points to defend here this week and has a relatively favourable draw to the QF's - so her motivation should be high. Her first-up game against Loit yesterday wasn't anything special but I still consider her all-round game superior to Stosur's. Dechy's mental tenacity can be a bit woeful sometimes, but the importance of the tournament may see a repeat of her excellent Australian Open effort - the last "big" tournament she played in. Historically, she always seems to lift for
these 'ranking' occassions.


Dechy; $1.50 @ SportsTab, Pinnacle, 5Dimes

[Marco]

Update

Bet 37; Won 28; Lost 9.
At Flat Stakes; Bet 37, Won 11.42; ROI 30.8%

A relatively good day at the office - Vaidisova let us down but I still think she'll be a good betting prospect over the next few months. Dechy did just enough to beat Stosur in a nailbiter while Kirkland won but played quite poorly.

The wind was really blowing today with quite a few players complaining about the effect it had on their serve. If the wind continues it will probably hamper players who rely on a big serve to win games. Are the conditions having similar effects on the ATP players?

Martinez v Kirilenko
Indian wells

Both players have made us money over the past few weeks so it's always "hard" to tip against one of them. However Martinez should be too good for Kirilenko on the day. As Pierce showed yesterday experience counts, and Martinez has been a professional player for 17 years while Kirilenko is only 17-years-old. The Spaniard has great variety in her game - slices, spins, looping topspins, drop shots - that often confuse younger players. As Martinez herself says "I never try to hit balls they expect" (eg: baseline rallies). Both players are in great form and both are very competent on hard. However experience and variety in the difficult conditions favour Martinez who I rate a 65.1% v 34.9% chance to win.

Martinez $1.80 @ Sporting Odds & SportingBet.

I expect Martinez to shorten in the market so this will probably be the best price.

[karla909]

Hi Marco


Thanks for the selections today. Yes Dechy sure was a cliff hanger. I think Stosur is one not to under estimate.

Can't go with you on Martinez tomorrow. I really don't like these 30+ people. I wonder if you should go back through your selections and see what the record is on these "oldies". I think Martinez lost for us 2 weeks ago.

As for the wind the ATP results wouldn't show much as the only big server in action was Roddick and he won easily 6-1 6-2 over an oldie - Novak. The breaks in serve in this tournament so far is enormous so you might be right, that is to stick with people who have a good over all game.

Got your e-mail ok. Lots of food for thought. Will reply later in the week. But thanks I appreciate the effort and honesty you put in to answer my query.

karla

[Marco]

Karla - thanks for the reply. Some interesting points in relation to
the ATP.

Martinez has been a positive earner for me this year as has Kirilenko. Some of themore statistical points that make me lean toward Martinez are:

Prior to this tournament she was 9-4 on hard for season.
Is 143/87 on hard over the past 8-and-half years (that's as far as my data goes back).
Solid wins over Myskina, Dechy, Peer, Linetskya and Groenefeld with in the past 4-5 weeks.
Won Pattaya Title in February.
Quarter Finalist in Indian Wells 2004. lost to Myskina (4th seed) in tight 3 setter.
Semi Finalist in Indian Wells 2003 - losing to Klijsters (1 seed).
Her current rating in my database is higher than it was in 2003 or 2004 Indian Wells tournament.
Her interviews over the past month - including the past few days - are very confident. She retires at the end of the year but reckons she's never enjoyed the game as much as she is now.

Kirilenko also has strong figures albeeit over a short time frame but loses points for success rate in
Quarter Final matches or better (ie: Semi Final and Finals). Her only Finals success was in the challengers last year, though she did beat Na Li in Hyderabad QF's this year.
Her performances at Indian Wells are negligible, though this is partly because she is young.
In the previous round Garrigue had seven break point opportunities but only made three. In Round 1 Bovina had 7 break point opportunities but only converted 3. If Martinez gets the same opportunity to break, I believe she'll have a higher conversion rate.

That said, Kirilenko can clearly still win. I just believe the value's with Martinez.

PS: It's a sad day when we both call 32 year-olds "oldies". I'd be happy to be 33 again :-)

[Marco]

Update

Bet 38; Won 30; Lost 8
At Flat Stakes: Bet 38; Won 12.2; ROI 32.1%

Granny Martinez managed to get across the line though she served poorly. Seems the wind died down today but the forecast for tommorrow is strong gusts at 30-40mph. Could be another tough day on court.

We're down to the final 8 so there'll be fewer tips over the next couple of days.

Not much else on offer tonight price wise. For the record, I doubt there'll be any surprises tonight though the weather may play a part in proceedings.
Clijsters to beat Martinez but way too short.
Kuznetsova to beat Dementieva but too short (need minimum $1.60 for overlay).
Davenport to beat Dechy but price about right.
Sharapova to beat Pierce but price about right.

Not exactly rocket science so we'll wait for the semi's.

[karla909]

Morning Marco


Well done on selecting Martinez. Forums are here for the purpose of exchanging information. I am actually more happy that your opinion proved correct than if mine got up.

Having an error of judgement is one thing but not learning from it turns it into a mistake. I think the lesson here is that the ATP and WTA are 2 different entities. Comparing one to the other is like comparing apples to oranges as the cliche goes.

I can give you heaps of stats that suggest Atp players are bad bets past the age of 30 but this may not hold true for the women. Lack of depth at the top maybe?

Obviously though comparing my experience in ATP to WTA is not the way to go.

Good work
Thanks
Karla

[Marco]

Clijsters v Dementieva
Indian Wells - Semi Final

An interesting match-up - the ex-champion Clijsters showing great form while coming back form a wrist injury versus the up-and-down yet classy Dementieva who has been defying opinions and a lot of money all week by continuing to win. The factors in Clijsters favour include her great record at Indian Wells, her success rate in Semi-Finals and Finals, her 5-1 h2h over Dementieva (though some of these matches are dated), her ratings improval in my database has improved over the past month more than Dementieva's (both form and surface), and her motivation during interviews has been very positive. As a minor aside (purely anecdotal), we're likely to see the return of her arch rival Henin-Hardenne from injury next week so Clijster's will be looking to outperform her in comeback matches (this is a HUGE rivalry). Dementieva is certainly capable of beating Clijsters and has an excellent record on US hardcourts. She's played well at Indian Wells before and has just beaten one of her Russian rivals Kuznetsova in the Quarters. Her matches this week have involved an element of 'luck' as both were comeback from behind victories. Her weakest link is her serve which can be all over the place - something Clijster's with her new aggressive technique will be looking to exploit. Dementieva has also been complaining in interviews that she's playing her worst tennis for years - though she's still winning! The Russian claims to be having trouble concentrating but whether these are just mind games with her opponent we're yet to see. I have Clijster's as a clear favourite and while she's right on the value line, I'll take the bet.

Clijsters $1.50 @ Pinnacle and Betfair.

[Marco]

Clijster's cruised through in a fairly impressive result and now meets Davenport in the final. I'll be sitting this one out as the 'mental pressure factor' is too unpredictable - though Lindsay deserves to be favourite. Big week next week as the NASDQ gets underway so there'll be plenty of betting action.

Good to see the ATP lads are on a roll too.

Update

Bets 39; 31 Won; 8 Lost.
At Flat Stakes: Bet 39; Won 12.7; ROI 32.5%

[Rock Steady]

Marco,
A few questions:

You really seem to a have great knowledge on the WTA. How long have you been analyzing and betting WTA?

What is your overall R.O.I?

Do you use a model to obtain ratings and prices?

Do you rate ALL WTA matches (not just the ones you mention here)?

Cheers!

[Marco]

Rock Steady - more than happy to answer questions but might be easier to do by email as this will save clogging up this tips thread.
Drop me a line on woof9898@yahoo.com.au - anyone who has questions can do likewise. Thanks.

First round tips for Nasdaq will be posted as soon as major bookies price up.

[Marco]

Granville vs Gagliardi
Nasdaq - Qualifier Second Round

I don't usually bet on qualifiers but quite a few books have offered markets on this game. Granville's in great form at the moemnt - she won the St Paul and Midland hardcourt challengers last month and has a solid 89-58 carrer record on the surface. She also played quite well in Indian Wells last week beating Irvin and putting up a good fight against the classy Linetskya (who went on to knockout Mauresmo). Gagliardi is another matter. She is inconsistent to say the least and is still in the doghouse after meekly surrendering to Serra Zanetti in Acapulco (a losing bet for me). This is her first hardcourt tournament since Acapulco's clay, though she won in the first round over the low ranked and inexperienced Ahsha Rolle. Mind you, Rolle who's only played a few WTA matches, still took her to a tiebreaker. Granville on the other hand, double bagelled the more experienced Sequerra in the first round of qualifiers. Gagliardi's 65/87 hardcourt record also leaves a bit to be desired - as does her tenacity and general mental strength. The value is certainly with Granville in this one - I rate her a 70.1% chance of winning.

Granville $1.47 @ 5dimes.
(You can currently get better prices elsewhere - $1.50 or so - but 1.47 is price I received).

[Marco]

Bets 40; Won 32; Lost 8.
At Flat Stakes: Bet 40; Won 13.17; ROI 32.9%

Granville got across the line last night though I was surpised she took 3 sets to win.

Bookies very slow to price up WTA today - hope it's better during the week. I'll just list 5Dimes lines - there may be better prices with others later. May add a couple of games after the other major bookies price up (approx 1-2 hours time).



Peer vs Domachowska
Nasdaq - Round 1

Young Israeli Shahar Peer cam through qualifying in great fashion by thunping Talaja and Serra Zanetti in straight sets. She's also having a great season going 14-6 and easily beat Domachowska in the first round of the Pattaya hardcourts last month. Peer came through the qualies in that tournamnet as well so it's a virtual mirror of the current circumstances. Domachowska is no slouch on hardcourts with a 46/21 career record but her form of late has been rather average. She stuggled past clay couter Salerni in Indian
Wells last week but was then thumped by Garrigues. Prior to this she was 3-4 for the season in a series of up-and-down performances. Peer should be to quick for Domachowska and has the qualies as a valuable warm up.

Peer $1.64 @ 5Dimes


Bondarenko v Jidkova
Nasdaq - Round 1

Bondarenko's a young Ukranian with a good all-round game who has probably been playing the best tennis of her short career in the past few months. Her best reults came in Hyderabad where she was beaten in the final by hometown hero Mirza (though Bondarenko did benefit from Groenefeld withdrawing from their semi-final). Bondarenko's steady progress has seen her rating rise about 30 or so places this season and she comes into todays match with a couple of solid qualification results under her belt. Admittedly her opponents were rather lowly rated but her challenger today - Jidkova - has played very little lately and was easily beaten in Round 1 of Indian Wells last week.Jidkova's a paltry 2-6 for the season but the one thing in her favour is experience and the H2h which she leads 2-0 (though the games are dated). However I doubt this is enough to get her across the line. The value's with Bondarenko whom I rate a 62% chance of winning.

Bondarenko $1.69 @ 5Dimes

Medina-Garrigues v Weingartner.
Nasdaq - Round 1

Although I've opposed Garrigues in the past few weeks, I believe she'll have too much for the out-of-form Weingartner. Garrigues has had an ordinary start to the season - though most of her losses have been to top rated players such as Molik, Pierce and Dulko. However from what I saw in Indian Wells last week she's beginning to play good tennis with an easy win over Domachowska and a battling effort in losing to Kirilenko. While more of a claycourt player, Garrigues still has some good results on hard. Her
opponent Weingartner is 3-4 for the season and has a very moderate 87/106 record on the surface. Moreover, she has a rather ordinary record in this tournament and in general seems to struggle on the American hardcourt swing. Weingartner was knocked out in the first round of Indian Wells and with only a handful of games this year looks a little underdone (as reflected her ever dimishing WTA ranking).

Medina-Garrigues $1.63 @5Dimes

Notes - Avoid Daniliidou whose withdrawn from a couple of tournaments with an inflammed thumb. Likewise Groenefeld who is a few games back form a right knee strain.

[Marco]

Update and Nasdaq-Miami

Bets 43; Won 34; Lost 9.
At Flat Stakes: Bet 43; Won 13.33; ROI 31%

Relatively ordinary day - Garrigues was busy thumping Weingartner who then decided to retire (5Dimes is a 'first set for action' bookie so the bet stands), Peer played poorly to just scrape home and Bondarenko put in a shocker. Overall a small profit for the day.

I noticed Peer's price was only avialable for about half an hour before plunging with the weight of some big money. I'll therefore record her price as $1.54 - closer to the going rate - to keep the betting record on a more even keel. Note that you could get Garrigues and Bondarenko at slightly better prices but I'll leave them as they are.

My model did fairly poorly across all games yesterday. My higher rated player usually beats the lower rated player about 71% of the time - yesterday it was closer to 50%. Perhaps the slow conditions and weather delays played a part but I'll be a tad cautious over the next round or two.


Linetskya v Sucha.
Nasdaq - Round 1

A short price here but worth the punt as Linetskya is a very talented youngster displaying excellent current form. Most peple are fixated on her win over Mauresmo last week which was great, but Mauresmo's plethora of unforced errors certainly let her into the game. However Linetskya's form prior to this game was also strong with wins over Zvonereva, Morigami and Granville. She's 12-6 for the season and has 51-20 record on the surface. Though young she has performed well on the American harcourt swing and her
aggression is a definite asset. In contrast, Martina Sucha is having an ordinary 2005. She's 2-6 for the season with one of her wins coming against the terribly out-of-form Sugiyama and the other was won through Bedanova's retirement. Sucha was knocked out in the first round of Indian Wells lastweek, was knocked out int he first round of the Nasdaq in 2004, and was knocked out in the first round of the Nasdaq qualifiers in 2003. In fact she's 0-5 in her appearances at Miami. Note that Linetskya also thumped Sucha in Round 2 of this year's Australian Open - I rate her a 82.1% chance of winning.

Linetskya $1.25 @ WillHills
(early line - Pinnacle may have a better price later but I expect her to eventually shorten).

More bets posted this arvo after the numbers are crunched. Time for some sleep!

[Marco]

Voskoboeva vs Uberoi
Nasdaq - Round 1

Wouldn't normally take someone of Voskoboeva's standing at such low odds but I rate her an 85.2% chance of winning so I think there's value at the price. Voskoboeva's a competent hardcourt player with a solid clay record - so she won't mind the slower conditions. She hasn't set the world on fire this season but played very well in qualifying by beating the talented, never-say-die Cho and Nakamura. She also had a pretty good tournament in the Orange challenger last week losing to evntual winner Cho in a tight third round, 3-set encounter. In some respects this bet is more against Uberoi who is a moderate challenger type player who is ranked 299 and only made the Nasdaq as a wildcard (note this is Neha Uberoi and not the more talented Shikha Uberoi). Neha's only played 5 games this season (going 2/3) - including an easy loss to the totally unheralded Julie Ditty. She was also beaten last week in the first round of qualifying for the Orange challenger! In short, Voskoboeva's no world-beater but she's had a great qualie session and comes up against an underdone, lowly-ranked outsider who rarely plays at this level.

Voskoboeva $1.30 generally available.
( a few offer $1.35 but not at my bookies)

Kirilenko V Chakvetadze
Nasdaq - Round 1

I've written plenty about Kirilenko so won't go back over it. Chakvetadze is another up-and-coming talent from Russia who is capable of winning tonight but probably prefers faster conditions. Her best recent reults have come on Indoor carpet, a far cry form the sometimes windy and slow Miami courts. She does however have some good wins under her belt and had a reasonably good tournament in Indian Wells last week. Should be a close encounter but I believe the in-form Kirilenko will prevail as a 65.5% favourite.

Kirilenko $1.57 WillHill
(may be better prices by a few cents later).

[Marco]

Mirza v Sanchez-Lorenzo
Nasdaq - Round 1

Mirza's the Indian wunderkid who made a name for herself last month by winning the Hyderabad tournament. She's a classy type with very strong groundstrokes which have seen her go 10/3 for the season. She has been troubled by ankle injuries lately but appears over the worst of it as seen in her straight sets win over the highly rated Kuznetsova in Dubai. Her opponent today Snachez-Lornzo is a competent hardcourt player who won't mind the slower conditions as she's equally at home on clay. She's had a very ordinary 6 months and a very ordinary 2005 (2-6 thus far) with her ranking dropping more than 60 places during this period. A short price but the value's with Mirza.

Mirza $1.36 generally available.

[Marco]

Update and Nasdaq

Bets 47; Win 37; Lost 10.
At Flat Stakes; Bet 47; Won 13.50; ROI 28.7%

Three out of four last night with Mirza ruining what could have been an excellent day. Nevertheless, a small profit made on the selections.


Shaughnessy v Schiavone
Nasdaq - Round 2

Shaughnessy has the advantage of playing a solid First Round match where sheeasily disposed of Fedak while Schiavone is coming off the bye. Shaughnessy,who generally plays well on home soil, is also coming off some solid Memphis formwhere she reached the finals after beating the likes of Vaidisova, Cho and Granville. Her Indian Wells form was pretty good too, losing in the third round to Davenport (she even managed to win a set). Her opponent Schiavone is a capable hardcourt player with an 82/62 career record. However she's had a mixed year which has seen her go 7/6 for the season. Her form in Doha was good but a loss to lowly-ranked Fujiwara in Indian Wells last week doesn't inspire confidence. Interestingly this was in the second round after Schiavone came off a bye. She was also eliminated in the first round of Dubai - albeit by a good player in Bovina, but this means she's had very little court time over the past few weeks. Should be a close match but Shaughnessy is a clear 61.1% favourite in my book.

Shaughnessy $1.83 @ Ladbrokes.
(I think the market will split these two fairly evenly so this price should hold).

[Marco]

Update

Bet 48; Win 37; Lost 11
At Flat Stakes: Bet 48; Won 12.50; ROI 26%

Well Good Friday wasn't so good! Shaughnessy shoulda, coulda, woulda . . . but didn't.
Never mind, let's get back on the horse and see how we go.

Backing an outsider tonight so keep your heart-medication close by.


Randriantefy v Koukalova.
Nasdaq - Round 2

I have these two fairly evenly matched at 53.7-46.3% to Randriantefy who is the marginally better hardcourt player. Both girls prefer clay though they're more evenly matched on the dirt (so the slow conditions shouldn't favour either girl). However Randriantefy has the advantage of a solid First-Round match under her belt. Granted her opponent Peterson was lowly ranked, but this warm-up compares favourably to Koukalova's preparation as she last played on Antwerp's carpet some 4 weeks ago. Much of this absence was forced by right shoulder tendonitis so she should be a bit rusty. Her form prior to her last appearance was also ordinary to say the least. Value is defintiely with the Madagascan.

Randriantefy $2.00 @ Ladbrokes and WillHill
(these are early lines - may be slightly better price later)

[Marco]

PS: May add another couple of bets to the one below after Pinnacle price up

[Marco]

Extra Bet

Sprem v Parra-Sontanja
Nasdaq - Round 2

The Croatian Sprem ranked 18 and with a 61/24 hardcourt record comes upagainst the Spaniard Parra-Sontanja ranked 76 with a 53/44 hardcourt record.Prior to the Nasdaq, Parra-Sontanja had played 4 matches on hard resulting in 4 thumpings - Smashnova beat her 6-0 6-0, Chakvetadze beat her 6-3 6-2, Likhovtseva beat her 6-0 6-0 and Talaja beat her 6-2 6-0 (more bagels than a New York deli!). She even struggled at times in her first round match with 15-year-old Tatishvili who has only played 5 Challenger games, 3 of which she won. Sprem has also had a few losses this year but they were close games to class players like Schydner, Vaidisova, Stosur (in Australia during her hot streak) and Safina in Paris (who went on to win tournament). Sprem has also had some good results on American hardcourts including making the quarter finals at this tournament last year. She's right on the 'value line' but I'll take her at the price (she'll be off my Xmas card list if she loses this one).


Sprem $1.28 generally available.
(some smaller bookies are offering $1.30).

[Marco]

Update

Bet 50; Won 39; Lost 11
At Flat Stakes: Bet 50; Won 13.28; ROI 26.5%

A very good night with both selections getting home. However Sprem played poorly andis one to avoid in the next round (apparently she's having some off-court personal problems as well). Randriantefy turned out to be great value and was easily obtainable at $2.20 in the late betting (though I'll still record the early price).

Cohen-Aloro v Sprem
Nasdaq - Round 3

Sprem played very poorly last night in a game she should have lost. As mentioned yesterday, Parra-Sontanja is currently a 'dog' on hardcourts but she still broke Sprem's serve at willand absolutely hammered her in the second set. Sprem may have been rusty coming off the bye but this shouldn't be an excuse against a player of Parra-Sontanja's calibre. While anecdotal, Sprem's personal life is currently a hot topic in the Croatian tabloids and while difficult todetermine the impact, she ceratinly played like someone who's distracted. Moreover, she withdrew from Qatar with lower back pain and has decided to withdraw from Croatia's forthcoming Fed Cup tie with Thailand as a precaution from 'overplaying. Sprem's opponent Cohen-Aloro has a 55/38 hardcourt record and is certainly a better player than Parra-Sontanja. She hasn't had a good year thus far but is showing good form at Miami with wins over Strycova and the in-form Hantuchova. That said, she came through to the main draw as a lucky loser, beating Bedanova in the first round of qualies and then losing to Serna. While I still rate Sprem the favourite (55.1-44.9%), her rating has fallen during this tournament (and has been falling for the past 2 weeks) while Cohen-Aloro's rating has improved some 40% during the same period. Value on the outsider but I wouldn't put the house on it.

Cohen-Aloro $2.65 @ 5Dimes
(Bookies very slow to price up. many haven't check the draw and have failed to price up tonight's 'extra' matches including Sprem. Might be better prices later),

[Marco]

Bet 51; Won 39; Lost 12
At Flat Stakes: Bet 51; Won 12.28; ROI 24%

What a difference a day makes - I couldn't have been more wrong about Sprem last night! She absolutely wiped the court with Cohen-Aloro who showed none of the grit that saw her beat Hantuchova the night before. Women!

Molik vs Henin.
Nasdaq - Round 4

I think everyone's having trouble pricing this match up. Molik's certainly playing a great game at the moment and has had some impressive results this season. Her serve, ground strokes and stamina are true class but the big question is: how fit is Henin? To be sure, at her peak she'd be a red hot favourite but you can't expect her to be anywhere near her best. She's certainly been workman-like this week and hasn't done anything wrong. However Henin has yet to face a player of consequence, having beaten Spears (who really only has a big serve) and claycourt specialist Llagostera-Vives. Now she may be pacing herself and may unleash tonight but these girls aren't robots so I expect Henin's long layoff to be exposed by Molik's power and stamina. I have a slight advantage to Molik - 51.1-48.9% so I'll take the Aussie.

Molik $2.15 @ 5dimes.


Clijsters - Myskina
Nasdaq - Round 4

Myskina recently took a couple of weeks off to refocus as she was playing so poorly. The rest seems to have worked and she's certainly picked up her play - but then again she's only faced Penetta and Vento-Kabchi. While these two are competent players, Clijster's is a different proposition. The Belgain will be very keen to follow-up on her recent tournament and with the Williams sisters and Henin all returning from injury, Clijster's will be out to assert herself. While I doubt she's at full strength, she hasn't put a foot wrong during her comeback and certainly gave Davenport a good game. The h2h is 4-3 to Clijster's though one of the games involved Clijster's retiring and another couple are rather dated. I expect this to be close, but the value is definitely with Clijsters whom I rate a 68.1% chance of winning.

Clijsters $1.48 @ StanJames and others.
(early lines)


Mauresmo v Sprem
Nasdaq - Round 4

I said my piece about Sprem yesterday and she proved me wrong (and some!) but I'm not convinced. Mauresmo' s had a few shaky moments over the past few weeks and even managed to lose to Linetskya. However she lost that game through a huge number of unforced errors and this is an exception rather than the rule. You won't see me punting down this end of the market too often but I still think's there value - though marginal - in the short odds. If not, my TV will
be taking a trip out the window.

Mauresmo $1.16 % 5Dimes
(some smaller books are offering 1.17).

[Marco]

Update


Bets 54; Won 41; Lost 13
At Flat Stakes: Bet 54; Won 11.92; ROI 22%


Well Molik let us down last night so a small loss for the evening. Good wins to
Mauresmo and Clijsters (who appears back to her best). Clijster's is my pick for the tournament at this point - though there's no value in the outright odds.



Sharapova vs Henin.
Nasdaq - Quarter Final

Following on form yesterday - I still don't think Henin is anywhere near her best. Fair enough, she disposed of Molik but Sharapova won't be as easy. Some people may be concerned over Sharpova's recent double-bagel loss to Davenport but I believe this was a one off - she simply had a bad day.
There's nothing in her performances this week that suggests she's below par and I'm sure her ultra-competitive ego took a real bruising. Sharapova will be looking for a bounce-back and while Henin can never be underestimated, it's
a big ask for her to win today. There may be a comparison with Clijster's recent comeback from injury in Antwerp where she blitzed the first two rounds but upon coming up against Serena Williams, she was bundled out rather easily. Similar situation today, in that Henin has played well for 3 games but hasn't faced stiff opposition (I believe the Sharapova - Molik divide is significant). I rate Sharapova a 65% chance of winning.

Sharapova $1.62 @ 5Dimes
(early line and prices may vary given opinion is mixed on Henin's current form)

[Marco]

Update

Bets 55; Won 42; Lost 13
At Flat Stakes: Bet 54; Won 12.54; ROI 23.2%

Nice win last night though a couple of very nervous moments in the second and third sets. I dislike Henin for her sometimes unsporting behaviour but you have to admire her grit.

Sharapova picked up a bit of an injury niggle so I'd be a tad wary of her in her next game.

Tournament gets rather difficult from here.

I'd like to take Clijster's over Dementieva but short value (need $1.36). Kim's also my pick for the tournament from here though no value in outright odds. I'd also like to back Ivanovic but more because I'm a fan of her play. Outside chance of an upset and closer than prices indicate but no value.

Back tomorrow.

[Marco]

An interesting couple of matches tonight.


Clijsters v Mauresmo.
Nasdaq Semi-Final.

I rate Clijsters a 66% chance of winning this match. Her current form is superb and she sounds very confident in her interviews. She does talk about a few aches and pains but then again which player doesn't. She didn't appear to burn too much fuel in her demolition of Dementieva yesterday so she should be relatively 'fresh' for this match. Since her comeback, Clijster's serve appears both stronger and more accurate. Moreover, her baseline play remains as strong as ever and no one can question her fighting spirit. Mind you, Mauresmo does have claims and could obviously win but Clijsters 7-2 H2h advantage suggests otherwise (Clijster's has won the last 6). I'm sure this will be close and a lot will hinge on the first set. However the value is with the Belgian.

Clijsters $1.59 5Dimes


Sharapova v Williams:
Too many 'ifs' and 'buts' in this match for me. Sharapova's back is a definite concern as it gave her a lot of grief during the second set with Henin. Remember she was leading 4-1 and serving prior to the problem and after taking treatement, she lost the set 7-5. Of course she went on to beat the 'rusty' Henin but Sharapova stated during her post match interview that her back might be an 'issue'. Therefore if Venus can replicate her form from the first set with Serena, then this should be an entertaining affair. Then again, Venus is still getting over a slow-healing abdominal injury that forced her to withdraw from Indian Wells.

[Marco]

Update

Bets 56; Won 43; Lost 13
At Flat Stakes: Bet 56; Won 13.04; ROI 23.3%

Exceptional win to Clijster's - she really has the 'wood' over Mauresmo's power game and use of spin. The game was far more one-sided than I predicted - great stuff!

Clijster's odds dropped rather quickly yesterday so I'll place $1.50 in the record as an average price as opposed to the early lines around $1.59. I'm hoping this makes the record a more realistic reflection of ROI%.

I'm still predicting Clijster's in the final. I rate her as a slight favourite but will post when the early lines are published. I'm guessing the bookies will split them down the middle.

[Marco]

The following excerpt is from Clijster's online diary. Food for thought before backing her at the ridiculously low $1.65-ish opening prices. I'm waiting for at least $1.76 before posting the bet (and that's marginal value in my opinion).


"I got up about an hour ago. It is still very moisty around here and one sweats the whole day through, even while doing nothing. I am starting to feel exhausted because of the succession of matches and my wrist is a bit stiff as well.

Playing eleven matches in a row in three weeks is tiring if you haven't been able to play for about a year. In the second set against Myskina I really hit a low, any third set would have been too much. Luckily, I now had a day's rest, but still I feel that my wrist needs more rest and that I should be having a checkup at the hospital again.

Right, I'm going to get ready for another half an hour of practice and testing my wrist. The WTA doctor advised me not to take any risks, so we'll see. After that, I still have some time left, as my match is only at 2am Belgian time.

Keep your thumbs up and see you soon.
Love Kim"

[Marco]

Bausch and Lomb at Amelia Island
Green Clay.

While not the first clay tourney of the year, Amelia island generally marks the start of the clay court swing. While it's sometimes tricky to tip the opening rounds, the clay season generally proves to be more profitable than the hardcourt swing.

Out of interest, green clay is slightly faster than red clay, has a higher bounce, longer rebound distance and is harder to slide on.



Chladkova v Pratt
Amelia Island - Round 1

Pratt plays this week courtesy of a wildcard - her ever declining ranking wasn't good enough. She is also playing on her least favourite surface which is reflected in her 30/37 career record. Chladkova on the other hand, is playing on her favourite surface. While she's had an ordianry hardcourt season thus far, her performances on clay at Berlin and Roland Garros last year suggest she is a deserving favourite. Note that Pratt won their only encounter on clay last year but she was in far better form at the time.

Chladkova $1.60 @ 5Dimes


Pierce v Bedanova
Amelia Island - Round 1

Pierce made the QF's of Indian Wells so is slowly getting back to form. She has a solid clay record of 86/39 as compared to Bedanova's 12/16 (she rarely plays onthe dirt). Bedanova is also only a few games back from a very long injury layoff so Pierce should have a definite edge. Short odds but value with Mary.

Pierce $1.25 @ Interwetten and others
($1.28 at some smaller bookies)


NB: Martinez should win but she withdrew from Nasdaq with a heel injury and her opponent Irvin has the advantage of 2 qualifying matches. Enough doubt to watch from the sidelines.

Shaui Peng, who plays tomorrow, is an ordinary clay courter who's returning from a 4 week layoff with an ankle injury. I'll be looking to oppose her.

Maria Elen Camerin, who withdrew from Nasdaq with an ankle injury, comes up against Brandi, an ordinary clay courter who won both her qualifiers. Probably one to avoid.

Daniilidou is also probably one to avoid as she's underdone from a recent thumb injury. She also has a poor clay court reord.

Linetskya is way too short in the market and Medina-Garrigues is a good chance of beating her.
Likewise Frazier is way too short with Jidkova a good chance of winning.

[Marco]

Update

Bets 58; Won 45; Lost 13
At Flat Stakes: Bet 58; Won 13.89; ROI 23.9%

Good start to the week with both selections winning.

I don't think there's much value this evening in what I consider a harder group of games. I'll wait for the late prices to see if anything 'appears' and will post in the late afternoon (if there's any bets).

[Marco]

Amelia Island - Outright

Serena Williams to win: $3.00 @ Centrebet

Serena's likely matches in her half of the draw - barring any upsets - are Randriantefy, Pierce, Schnyder and Molik. There are of course a few variations in terms of her opposition - for example - Zvonereva may beat Molik or Farina Elia may beat Schydner. However these changes don't really impact upon the odds. Serena has solid records against all these players who, for the main part, are better suited to hardcourts.

The main reason for this selection is the imbalance in the two halves of the draw. Serena's lower half is far easier than the top half- an anomaly that can be blamed on the WTA's inefficient seeding methodology.

The real interest will come in the final. Barring upsets she will play Venus or Davenport (or possibly Myskina or Petrova who have great clay skills). Should there be an upset in the top half of the draw then Serena's price looks even better. In the top half of the draw, I rate Venus as favourite. Her record on clay last year was better than her record on hard. However she has a probable QFinal against Davenport and a SFinal against Myskina and her odds reflect this.

I think it's fair to say that Serena isn't playing her best tennis at the moment but I don't think she'll be really challenged until these last few games. If she does make the final, there will be an opportunity to 'arbitrage' the bet for a profit on either player. I'm sure she's still smarting from her loss last week so perhaps a bit of revenge is on the cards.

Trying to be objective - Serena isn't defending many points here so there's not a lot at stake in terms of her quest for No. 1. However I'm sure she's not here for fun and it's very unusual to see both Williams' in the same tournament outside of slams (and the Nasdaq - the unofficial 5th slam).

[Marco]

A few outsiders in the mix tonight but all have very good chances of winning. I'm surprised at some of the prices on offer but this is often the case as the tour moves from hard to clay.

These are all early lines but I'm not sure whether the markets will go up or down given some of the unusual prices.


Pierce v Daniilidou
Amelia Island - Round 2

Following on from my first round pick on Pierce who is the better clay court player who, as expected, crushed Bedanova during the first round. With a far superior clay court record and a past winner of this tournament, Pierce should also dispose of Daniilidou who is a mere 23/23 on clay. Daniilidou is also recuperating from a recent thumb injury and while it's not particularly serious in terms of fitness, it kept her out of the game for several weeks.

Pierce $1.42 @ 5Dimes.


Martinez V Jankovic
Amelia Island - Round 2

Absolutely stunned at these prices. I make Martinez a clear favourite. Before I extol her virtues, my only minor concern is her withdrawal from Nasdaq last week with a left heel injury. However, she won her first round match in steady if unspectacular fashion and should be better for the run. Nothing has appeared in the media, post-match interveiws or on her website mentioning any problem with her fitness. Ok - Martinez: 13th appearance at tournament and didn't lose before QF's in first 8 appearances. Has won tournament, has 2 runner-ups and made the third round in her two most recent appearances. Rates Amelia Island as one of her favourite events. She also has a 125/52 career record on clay and has been in sensational form this season. Her opponent Jankovic is a young up-and-comer with a 32/23 clay record. However most of her success has come on hardcourts. She made headlines recently by making the finals in Dubai but perhaps people are forgetting that was a hardcourt game - not clay - and that she only made the final through Williams retiring in the semi. Jankovic did have a good win over Douchevina in the first round, but Douchevina is well known for her inconsistent performances so I'm not reading too much into it. If Martinez's injury is still troubling her then perhaps Jankovic should be favourite but, as mentioned, there's nothing in post-match interviews, news stories etc that suggests this is the case.


Martinez $2.22 5Dimes
(you can get closer to 2.45 on Betfair)


Peschke v Frazier.
Amelia Island - Round 2

Just as surprised by these prices. Peschke rates clay as her favourite surface and has a 48/30 career record on the surface. She also had a straight set first round win over clay-court specialist Castano who's been in good form lately. Moreover she breezed through her 2 qualification games in straight sets. Frazier on the other hand, has a 23/25 clay record and is far more at home on hardcourt. Neither player is in their prime - Frazier's 32, Pescke 29 - but the latter certainly has the game to win. I rate Peschke a 60.3% chance and will gladly take the value.

Frazier can obviously win but the short odds are, in my opinion, plain crazy. This is the same player who was beaten in straight sets by Kutuzova (ranked 271) in Indian Wells a few short weeks ago . . . and hardcourts are Frazier's speciality!

Peschke $2.85 @ 5Dimes



Dulko v Likhovtseva
Amelia Island - Round 2

A relatively even match up - both players are competent on clay though I give the edge to Dulko. I think the odds probably reflect Likhovtseva's slightly better start to the hardcourt season but as I've said before, I'm not sure this form transfers to clay as readily as some think. At 29 years old, Likhovtseva hasn't played that may games on clay and her record of 63/52 hardly outshines 20-year-old Dulko's record of 35/21. Likhovtseva did manage to get past clay court specialist Pistolesi in the first round though the Israeli is on the comeback trail after injury/illness. Similarly, Dulko beat another competent clay courter in Srebrotnik in straight sets. I rate her a 55.2% chance of winning.

Dulko $2.00 @ 5Dimes



Garrigues v Farina Elia
Amelia Island - Round 2

Another match I think will be close and while I give Farina Elia a very slight edge, Garrigues represents the value. Garrigues great win over Linetskya in the first round underlines her solid clay court abilities. Her career record stands at 76/43 and some her best results have come on the surface. Farina Elia comes into the clay swing in relatively good form and generally does well at this time of year. Her career record stands at 112/62 and although she has been troubled by a recurring right shoulder injury over the past few months, I'm not sure if this plays into the odds (though her last tournament was Dubai). This match should be close and Garrigues is more than capable of winning. She's the bookies outsider but there's no way she should be this price so early in the clay season.


Garrigues $2.57 @ 5Dimes
(might better prices later?)

[karla909]

Thanks Marco

I am very impressed by the research you put in and the time you take to keep us, the novice WTA punters informed.

Your record speaks for itself.

My punting account has benifted and I am sure I speak on behalf of others.

Good luck tonite

Karla

[Marco]

UpdateBets 63; Won 47; Lost 16
At Flat Stakes: Bet 63; Won 13.16; ROI 20.8%


A rather ordinary night going 2-3. I most definitely got Martinez wrong - though she made no excuses about injuries in her interviews. Apparently she just played poorly.Dulko had a break in the third but went on to lose. To be fair, Likhovtseva deserved her win. Garrigues just didn't fire up and failed to convert enough of her many breakpoint opportunities. No excuses from me - it was just "one of those days".

A loss for the evening but no real damage done.

Our outright selection - Serena Williams - cruised passed Randriantefy and now comes up against Pierce who's playing solid tennis at the moment. Should be an interesting match and closer than the very short odds suggest. Razzano did us a big favour beating Molik as she was in Serena's half of the draw.

Back tonight.

PS: Thank you for the kind words Karla.

[Mr ed]

Some great figures there Marco, i although haven't been on your tips am also impressed by the form study and commitment you have to womens Tennis. I think it's fantastic to specialise in one sport and many people don't realise this and bet on many different sports, which doesn't allow them the time and study they need to make good steady profits such as yourself, well done. Just curious on how many betting agencies you go through to get the best price?

[Marco]

Petrova v Jankovic
Amelia Island - Round 3

Despite disposing of Martinez, I still feel Jankovic is over-rated at the moment. She'll find the going harder today against Petrova, the wily Russian who prefers hardcourts but is more than competent on clay. Petrova crushed specialist clay-courter Maleeva in the first round and has some decent results at this tournament, including a straight sets win over a fully-fit Serena Williams last year. She's also had a good start to the season and should be full of confidence. Both players have similar records on the surface though Petrova has generally beat a better class of player (ie higher rated). Should be close and Jankovic is definitely an improver but I rate Petrova a 58.2% chance of winning.

Petrova $1.87 @ 5Dimes


Sugiyama v Razzano
Amelia Island - Round 3

Sugiyama finally seems to be finding some form after an ordinary start to the season. She's had a couple of good wins over clay-court specialists Strycova and Sanchez-Lorenzo and although appearing to still lack a little confidence, her game is definitely on the up. It must be said that clay isn't her best surface though she's more than capable of holding her own and had a good clay swing last year.What I do like about Sugiyama is her Lleyton-Hewitt-like quality where she always gives 100% until the last point. Her opponent Razzano impressed us all by breezing passed Molik without any major problems though I feel this was a 'one off' performance. Molik's unforced error count certainly helped. Razzano's competent on clay but her record is rather mixed with quite a few of her wins coming on the Challenger circuit. Like Sugiyama, she had a terrible start to the season and will be out to build on the momentum from her Molik win.

Sugiyama $1.57 @ 5Dimes


Zvonereva v Likhovtseva
Amelia Island - Round 3

Likhovtseva did just enough to get passed Dulko yesterday but this will be alot harder. Zvonereva is having a great year and boasts a 58/17 clay record with quite a few of her wins coming over top rated players. She had a hard fought win over the tenacious Peng but I'll put the score down to a bit of rustiness first up on clay. Likhovtseva is another player I think is over-rated. Her clay record stands at 64/52 and her results suggest she prefers it a bit faster than the conditions on offer at Amelia Island. She'll also have a lot more problems with Zvonereva's serve compared to the weak efforts Dulko was dishing up yesterday.

Zvonereva $1.56 @ Pinnacle


NB: I'm rather keen on Farina Elia @ $2.50 versus Patty Schnyder but am a bit shy posting outsiders after yesterday. Schydner's a bit of a head case at times and you never know which 'personality' is going to turn up. I have them rated 52-48 to Schydner so, in my opinion, there's value on Farina Elia but I'll be a tad cautious this early in the clay swing.


PS: Mr Ed, thanks for the kind words - always nice after an ordinary day at the office. I have accounts at 16 bookies but 95% of my bets are placed at Betfair, 5Dimes and Pinnacle (in that order). Most online bookies are a joke when it comes to tennis - both ATP and WTA - but you can do good business with these 3 alone. The key is being in the market when they post their
opening lines. They generally do so at the same time each day - relative to the tournament timezone - so it's a fairly easy process.

Even though Betfair prices are generally superior, I don't post them because the amount available for betting is often insubstantial and can change quickly.

[Marco]

Update

UpdateBets 64; Won 48; Lost 16
At Flat Stakes: Bet 64; Won 13.73; ROI 21.4%

The bad news is rain played havoc with the tournament today - most of our games will be played tonight. The good news is my first selection to play, Zvonereva, won in straight sets. She was also available up to $1.67 prior to the start (though my 1.57 has been recorded). The 'mixed' news is Sugiyama is a set down but leading the second set tiebreak 3-0. Though not particularly important, Sugiyama has a 60/50 career tiebreak record while Razzano has a 32/22 record. Here's hoping.

[Marco]

Update

Bets 66; Won 49; Lost 17
At Flat Stakes: Bet 66; Won 13.60; ROI 20.6%

Petrova won last night but Sugiyama let us down. A disappointing loss as she lead 5-2 in the third set and held match point before losing 7-5. However Razzano - who deserves credit for beating Sugiyama - did us a favour by beating Zvonareva.

No value in the semi's tonight so I'll wait to see how the final shapes up. I'm guessing Davenport v Williams but that's not exactly rocket science.

Serena Williams just retired after losing second set so our outright bet loses.

Update

Bets 67; Won 49; Lost 18
At Flat Stakes: Bet 67; Won 12.60; ROI 18.8%

May post a pick on Razzano / Elia tonight.

[Marco]

Family Circle Cup - Charlston
Green Clay

Rather weak field at Charlston this week. Quite a few upsets against the seeds in qualification so expect some variable results again. The clay swing will start to settle down soon as more games are played and current form becomes more evident.

Not much time today so abbreviated write-ups.

Randriantefy v Jidkova
Charlston - Round 1

Randriantefy is a better all-round player and superior on clay. Nice warm up games last week whereas Jidkova was easily beaten by hardcourter Frazier. Randriantefy solid season thus far while Jidkova's been very ordinary

Randriantefy $1.50 @ 5Dimes


Peer v Vaidisova
Charlston - Round 1

While Peer is largely unproven on clay, she does have a 20/7 career record although many of those wins were on the Challenger circuit. Her opponent has only played 6 games on clay at any level and is first-up this season on the surface. Peer has the advantage of 'warming up' on both qualies this week (2 wins) and at Amelia Island where she put in a credible performance (1 win, 1 loss).

Peer $2.30 @ 5Dimes


Likhovtseva v Koukalova
Charlston - Round 1

Likhovtseva had solid performance on green clay last week while Koukalova is first-up. Koukalova'scompetent on the dirt and this could be a close match but Likhovtseva is the better player who has the benefit of 3 good 'warm-up' matches at Amelia Island.

Likhovtseva $1.33 @ 5Dimes

NB: Dementieva is one of the favourites for this tournament but she withdrew form Amelia Island last week with a knee injury so might be best to watch a few games first. Zuluaga also withdrew from Amelia Island with an 'illness' so not best preparation for such short odds. Shaughnessy hurt her back at Amelia Island.

[Marco]

Update

Bets 66; Won 49; Lost 20
At Flat Stakes: Bet 69; Won 10.60; ROI 15.3%


A terrible evening going 0-3 - my worst for the year. I could write a post-mortem but there isn't much point. I still believe the players were solid selections based on the data but days like this come with the territory so onward and upward. The change in surfaces isn't usually this problematic but I'd urge caution with stakes during this changeover period.


Pascual v Stosur
Round 1 Charlston

Stosur is an ordinary clay-courter with a 19/20 career record. Easily beaten by Peer at Amelia Island. Had very poor clay swing for past 2 seasons and doesn't have any big results outside of australia. Ruano-Pascual beat good clay-courter Sprem in Amelia Island and lost a tight 3 setter to imroving Domachowska. A clay court specialist with a 83/72 career record.

Pascual $1.65

Srebotnik v Pratt
Round 1 Charlston

A similar story to the above. Pratt is an ordinary clay courter with a 30/38 career record. She's having an ordinary season and only made the tournament as a wildcard. Easily beaten by Chladkova last week who's a similar player to Srebotnik. Srebotnik has a 57/44 career record and has had one of the best starts to a season in her career. Playing well though easily beaten by classy Dulko at Amelia Island. Pratt is nowhere near the same class and meets Srebotnik on her favourite surface.

Srebotnik $1.45

[Marco]

Update

Bets 71; Won 50; Lost 21
At Flat Stakes: Bet 71; Won 10.05; ROI 14.2%

(NB: Made a typo yesterday on number of bets in update but self explanatory)

I defy anyone to make sense of this week. Flat betting on the underdogs would have produced a huge windfall over the past few days given the number of upsets. Bit short on time so abbreviated write-ups again.

Molik has withdrawn and is replaced by LL Perebiynis


Srebotnik v Perebiynis
Charlston Round 2

Following on from yesterday's write-up, Srebotnik will be too strong for lucky loser Perebiynis. Perebiynis is having a miserable season and was beaten in qualifying by lowly ranked Pelletier and thumped last week in the first round of Amelia Island by Castano. She's an average clay-courter who has better results on hard courts.

Srebotnik $1.40 @ 5Dimes


Koukalova v Stosur
Charlston Round 2

Opposing Stosur for the same reasosn I posted yesterday. I was very surprised by her win over Pascual because I've seen Stosur play on clay and she's rather ordinary. Her career record is now 20/20. Koukalova's career is 58/42 and she has s few wins over quality players on the surface. Don't quite understand the prices.

Koukalova $1.83 @ 5Dimes
(available 1.90 at smaller bookies)

Asagoe v Shaughnessy
Charlston Round 2
Asagoe is in fine form at the moment and seems to be handling the conditions well. Wins over Myskinsa, Raymond and a close loss to Petrova at Amelia Island hold her in excellent stead. Also a good first round win here. A few question marks over Shaughnessy's fitness (withdrew last week with back injury) and she hasn't really done much on the dirt since the swing started. Beat Daniilidou but it may surprise some people that she has a very average clay record. Should be close but I like the price

Asagoe $1.75 @ 5Dimes

[Marco]

Update

Bets 73; Won 52; Lost 21
At Flat Stakes: Bet 73 units; Won 11.28 units; ROI 15.4%

Better result last night with 2 wins and one void due to Shaughnessy's withdrawal before play. A tough round tonight during a tough week - not much appeals.

Vaidisova v Asagoe.
QF Charleston

Vaidisaova continues to defy opinion that her lack of clay experience - 8 WTA games thus far - would soften her meteoric rise in the rankings. However Asagoe is also rather inexperienced on the dirt with a 16/17 career record. This will be a close game, a point reinforced by their results against the classy Myskina in the past week. Asagoe squeaked home 7:6 7:6 on Amelia Island's green clay while Vaidisova won in a hard fought 3 sets yesterday. Both have also played well in the early rounds although Asagoe had the benefit of a walkover in Round 2. They've also met once before on red clay in Acapulco 2004 with Vaidisova winning in straight sets. A close game but my program rates Vaidisova a 57.8% chance of winning.

Vaidisova $1.80 @ StanJames

[Marco]

Update

Bets 74; Won 53; Lost 21
At Flat Stakes: Bet 74 units; Won 11.98 units; ROI 16.2%

Vaidisova did just enough to get passed Asagoe so a good result in the end.
Her price shortened rather quickly so I'll record $1.70 to make the potential
return a better reflection of prices.

Some interesting match-ups tonight - but bookies very slow to price up.

Schnyder v Vaidisova
Charleston

Both players are in top form at the moment but at this stage of the tournament I have to go for experience. Schnyder reached the semi-finals here last year and is therefore defending a lot of ranking points. Her performances this week suggest she is very focused which is rather comforting as she can be a bit erratic at times. Let's hope positive Patty turns out tonight. Overall Schnyder's an excellent clay-courter with a 118/71 career record who is coming off two convincing straight-set wins this week. Vaidisova, while very inexperienced in these conditions, has performed admirably this week. However some of her frailties were on display yesterday against Asagoe - including a large unforced error count and drop-off in concentration. Schydner has far more 'weapons'than Asagoe so a similar effort to yesterday could spell trouble for Vaidisova. My program rates Schydner a 66.5% chance of winning.

Schydner $1.60 @ Sportstab
(there could be better prices by a few cents later).

[Marco]

Update

Bets 75; Won 54; Lost 21
At Flat Stakes: Bet 75 units; Won 12.58 units; ROI 16.8%


Schydner certainly proved her value on clay by easily disposing of Vaidisova. HeninHardenne could be a good bet tonight depending on her price. Bookies have been slow to price up this week - perhaps more interested in ATP Monaco - but WTA prices should be out by 6.00 AEST.

[Floydyboy]

Has "Allez Justine " been recovering from the injury that put her out of one of the majors last year ..I havent seen hide nor hair of her then again as I said Im not up to speed on all these tour tounaments....I love her shes a little tiger

[Marco]

Hi Floydy - Justine's about 8 games back form her injury troubles. She was struck down with a virus last year and took rest of the season off after the US Open. Then, prior to her return in January, she did her knee and finally made her comeback in Miami last month. She's a champion - if sometimes a little unsporting - and should have too much for Golovin. Just a matter of price.

[Floydyboy]

Thanks for that Marco

[Marco]

Henin-Hardenne v Golovin
Semi Final - Charleston

Golovin's surprised me this week as I thought she'd lose her last two games. She played well against Venus Williams but Venus's astronomical unforced error count certainly helped Glovin's cause. I also think today will be a lot harder - Henin-Hardenne just doesn't quit and while she's clearly on the comeback trail, her clay skills and killer backhand have barely diminished. Sure, she's not at her peak and has dropped a few sets this week but I still think she'll do the job against her much younger and more inexperienced rival. My program rates Henin a 70% chance of winning and while her price is right on the value line, I'll take the odds.

Henin $1.44 @ StanJames.


I'm also tipping Schydner to beat Dementieva but she's just a tad short in the bookies' prices. May be worth a look at Betfair.

[Floydyboy]

I think Ill sit this one out Ive backed her at that price before probably feb or march last year had acouple of hundred on her cant even remember who she played but she was at the top of her game and it seemed like good value at the time ...she got the bikkies in 2 sets no probs ...but that first sentence in your thread and the fact thats shes on the comeback trail coupled with my self imposed temporary exile from sizeable bets will make me a watcher on this one....but good luck I hope she kicks arse

[Marco]

Update

Bets 76; Won 55; Lost 21
At Flat Stakes: Bet 76 units; Won 13.02 units; ROI 17.1%


Nice work Justine - and she's a real chance for the final as well. Looks like she's
playing Dementieva so it's down to price again. Lets hope the bookies post a bit earlier today.

[Marco]

No WTA Tournaments this week as the Fed Cup kicks off this weekend (25-26 Apr). There's usually a couple of betting opportunities though many of the ties are very one-sided (eg: Germany v Indonesia). Bookies are traditionally a bit slow to price the event but there could be some good odds about the Russia v Italy, Czech Rep. v Japan and Spain v Argentina ties.

www.fedcup.com (http://www.fedcup.com/)
I'll post Fed Cup bet once prices are up.

Normal tournament schedule restarts next Monday.

[Marco]

The good news is that after a week off, the WTA returns with two tournaments - Estoril where we join the men's tour and the J & S Cup in Warsaw. Both tourneys are on red clay and have assembled reasonable fields though this week is generally considered a warm-up for the short but intense majors on the clay swing (Berlin, Rome, & Roland Garros).

Monday is traditionally quiet with very few games scheduled as this allows players to return from Fed Cup matches held over the weekend. The final rounds of qualies are played along with a couple of first round matches (nothing of interest today).

I'll therefore kick off the betting and analysis tomorrow. These tournaments start around 5pm AEST so I'll post as soon as the bookies publish their lines (hopefully late tonight or early morning).

The Fed Cup didn't attract much interest from the bookies or the punting public so there wasn't much to post.

[Marco]

A rather chaotic start to the week. There's been 5 late withdrawals across both tournaments so the draws are a mess. Bookies have yet to reframe their markets are are currently listing matches that aren't being played.

The withdrawals affected both my planned bets.

There's still plenty of time before the games start (7-8 hours) so I'll post as soon as the markets/matches are reframed.

[Marco]

Estoril & Warsaw
Red Clay

http://www.jandscup.pl/
http://www.estorilopen.net/

Apologies for the late post. There were quite a few late withdrawals today - see previous post - and the bookies are taking forever to reframe their markets. Interestingly, several bookies are still taking bets on games declared void through withdrawal more than 12 hours ago.

I'm waiting on a few more prices so may paste extra bets. Still quite a few hours until these games start.
I've picked a few genuine outsiders today as upsets are quite common early in the clay swing.


Cervanova v Parra-Sontanja
Round 1: Estoril

Both players prefer clay and both are competent on the surface. Cervanova's career clay record is 98/70 while Parra-Sontanja's is 59/36. Cervanova has had the better preparation as she played in the Dinan clay challenger 2 weeks ago where she reached the QF's (losing in a close 3 setter). Moreover, these two players met on Acupulco's red clay in early March where Cervanova was the easy winner in 6:2 6:3. Parra-Sontanja hasn't played since Miami 3 weeks ago so may be a little rusty for this encounter. I rate Cervanova a 64.1% chance of winning - she's been a solid improver over the past few months

Cervanova $1.65
($1.65 available at smaller bookies - the larger books may have better
prices but they're yet to post lines).

Cohen-Aloro v Na Li
Round 1: Estoril

Cohen-Aloro is a clay-court specialist with a competent 39/36 career record. She seems to enjoy this tournament making the SF's here last year and the QF's in 2003. Her opponent today Na Li is a great prospect on hardcourts but has only played 7 games on clay. Five of these were in the 2004 WulanHaoate Challenger which she won - but the tournament is mainly an all-Chinese affair with an extremely poor field (rated C25 which is 3 tiers below today's event). This game could be relatively close because Na Li is one of those girls who never gives up but she hasn't played on the WTA circuit since March (though she played Fed Cup) and is another player who is first-up on her least favourite surface. Of course Na Li can win but the prices are simply based on her overall WTA rating which does not adjust for the surface. She's seeded fourth for the tourney despite playing only 7 games on clay over several years. Note that Li had to fly in from China's Fed Cup tie in India on Sunday where the matches were on hardcourt, so it will certainly take some adjustment.

Cohen-Aloro $2.60 @ 5Dimes

Ondraskova v Douchevina
Round 1: Warsaw

Backing another outsider here but not without reason. Ondraskova isn't as well known as Douchevina but is still an experienced clay-court specialist with a 66/38 record. She's just played in the Dinan clay Challenger where she reached the final. Though losing, she beat 3 handy clay-courters on the way including Cervanova, Savchuk and Kloesel. While most of her wins have been on the Challenger circuit, she's had the benefit of 3 qualification games which she won easily in straight sets. Douchevina has some form on clay but most of this is also on the Challenger circuit and she rates hard courts as her favourite surface. She lost in the first round of Amelia Island 2 weeks ago which was her most recent game so she's first up on red clay. I rate these two very closely and Ondraskova will have to play very well but she's a genuine chance.

Ondraskova $2.70 @ Centrebet
(there should be better prices later - Centrebet have poor margins)


Nagyova v Zheng
Round 1: Estoril

A very similar analysis to the game above. Zheng is a hradcourt player with a limited clay-court game. Her career record stands at 29/22, most of which was earned on the Challenger circuit. She hasn't played on the WTA circuit since March (though played Fed Cup) and is first-up on her least favourite/successful surface. Nagyova is another clay-court specialist with a lot of experience and a 121/72 career record. To be fair, she hasn't achieved much in the last year or so but she did play in the recent Dinan clay challenger where she reached the QFs. She's also had two solid qualification games which she won is straight sets (albeit against low ranked opponents). However she's had the better preparation and has the edge in experience. Note that Zheng also had to fly in from China's Fed Cup tie in India on Sunday. I rate these two very closely but Nagoya is a slight favourite in my book.

Nagyova $2.35 @ Centrebet
(there should be better prices later - Centrebet have poor margins)


NOTES: Farina Elia has been troubled by a shoulder injury and while the highest ranked player on the Italian Fed Cup team, she didn't make the court. Similarly, Flavia Pennetta has been troubled by a foot injury and like Farina-Elia, didn't play in the Fed Cup tie despite being the second ranked Italian player.

[Marco]

Bookies slowly pricing up so an extra bet. Still a few hours till they start.

Schiavone v Vento-Kabchi
Round 1: Warsaw

Short odds on Schiavone but she's a specialist clay-courter coming up against Vento-Kabchi who has a 25/43 record on the surface. Schiavone is also coming of Italy's Fed Cup tie on red clay where she beat Safina - who has an excellent clay record - but lost to the classy Dementieva in 3 sets. In contrast, Vento-Kabchi is coming off a first round loss to the mediocre Sucha at Amelia Island 2 weeks ago - hardly the ideal preparation. Schiavone was a semi-finalist here last year so is defending plenty of points and should be focused. I rate her a 82% chance of winning so she's right on the value line but I'll take the bet.

Schiavone $1.22 @ Centrebet.
(may get a better price by a few cents as better bookies price up. Centrebet has lousy margins).

[Marco]

Update

Bets 80; Won 57; Lost 23
At Flat Stakes: Bet 80 units; Won 13.02 units; ROI 16.3%

Well the Chinese players certainly proved me wrong yesterday. Mind you, I wouldn't be backing them at short odds in Round 2 today as Li and Zheng did little to impress. So plenty of upsets yesterday but not quite where we wanted them. A break-even day though with 2 wins, 2 losses and a void bet through a first set withdrawal.
Not many games scheduled today.


Bovina v Hantuchova.
Round 2: Warsaw

Bovina's coming from Fed Cup play with Russia (on red clay) while Hantuchova progessed by doing just enough to beat the lowly-rated Kosinska. Bovina is the better clay player and always seems to play well at this time of year. She's a past winner of this tournament in 2002 and has previously made the SF and QF at Estoril which is also on at this time of year. Bovina lists hard as her favourite surface - as does Hantuchova - but Bovina's 33/17 career clay record includes wins over a better class of player. Hantuchova's record stands at 33/27 and while she had a stellar clay season in 2002, she's acheived little since. Should be relatively close as both are having reasonable seasons. My program rates the match a 59-41% proposition

Bovina $1.78 @ Pinnacle.



Randriantefy v Sanchezlorenzo
Round 2: Estoril

Both players are competent clay-courters but Randriantefy definitely has the edge. Her 112/58 clay career record is far superior in the quality of opponents played and beaten than Sanchez-Lorenzo's 93/80 record. Randriantefy is coming off an easy first round win against the lowly ranked local wildcard Neuza, while Sanchez-Lorenzo beat the big serving hardcourter Osterloh. Sanchez-Lorenzo was lucky to get back into the game after losing the first set 0:6. Randriantefy is also having a better season and performed well on Acupulco's red clay earlier this year. This price is right on the value line but
I think the Madagascan will be too good.

Randriantefy $1.45 @ Pinnacle.

[Marco]

Update

Bets 82; Won 59; Lost 23
At Flat Stakes: Bet 82 units; Won 14.18 units; ROI 17.3%


A better evening with two hard-fought wins. There's quite a few early lines up (for a change) so it's possible to post earlier than normal.

Bovina's price shortened quite quickly yesterday so I'll put $1.71 in the record (as opposed to the early $1.78) to better reflect potential returns.


Cervanova v Craybas
Round 2: Estoril

I wrote about Cervanova on Tuesday so I won't repeat myself. Her relatively easy win over Parra-Sontanja bodes well for today because Parra-Sontanja is a far better clay player than Craybas. The American, in short, has a woeful 23/35 career clay record and has beaten few quality players on the surface. She beat 'no-name' Mihalache in the first round but no real surprises there as her opponent was a lowly-ranked Challenger player. Today will be a far tougher proposition as Craybas performed very poorly at Charleston and Amelia Island (green clay). Moreover, she failed to win a single WTA game on clay last season at 5 attempts. Of course upsets are always possible but I would be surprised - no shocked - if Craybas won today.

Cervanova $1.45 @ 5Dimes
(available at $1.50 at smaller books but these prices should come in)


Schydner v Vakulenko
Ronud 2: Warsaw

Schynder is at short odds today but not without reason. She has a solid 119/72 clay record which includes many wins over quality players and is coming off a solid performance at Charleston where she reached the semi-finals. Her opponent Vakualenko has done well to reach the second round. She beat the coming-back-from-injury Daniilidou in qualifying but despite what many people think, Daniilidou has a rather ordinary clay record. Vakulenko then went on to beat Chladkova and Chakvetadze but neither of these players are anywhere Schydner's class. That said, Vakualenko has the benefit of playing in the conditions while Schydner is first-up but I don't think this is an issue for someone of Patty's experience. One has to remember that Vakulenko is ranked 260 and has few, if any, big scalps to her name on the dirt. This is also only her second tournament for 2005 so she may by a little underdone.

Schydner $1.25 generally available.
(early line but prices should hold)

[Marco]

Time to eat a very large slice of humble pie.

First Li and Zheng make a goose of me and now, of all people, Jill Craybas.
What more can I say . . . I'm still in shock . . . not only of the loss but also the scoreline!

Here's hoping Schynder can salvage some of my pride.

[Marco]

Update

Bets 84; Won 60; Lost 24
At Flat Stakes: Bet 84 units; Won 13.43 units; ROI 16%

One win and one loss for the evening. In a bit af a flat spot over the past few weeks but still a break even proposition.


Ivanovic v Dechy
QF: Warsaw

Ivanovic is a real media 'queen' at the moment and has generated a lot of attention. She's been in outstanding form over the past few days though she isn't the most experienced player on clay at the WTA level. Her double-bageling of Sucha in the first round was clinical and she made the classy though out-of-form Zvonereva look ordinary. Dechy is competent on the dirt
but is in a bit of a form slump. Her recent Fed Cup form on red clay was ordinary to say the least. Dechy beat Domachowska yesterday but this was mainly due to her opponents large number of unforced errors. Today's game could be relatively close with the QF pressure but Ivanovic has the momentum.

Ivanovic $1.50 generally available.

NOTE: The Warsaw games are being streamed on the internet. The quality's good with a broadband connection.
See: http://www.itvp.pl/i.tvp/jands (http://www.itvp.pl/i.tvp/jands)
On the right side of the page click " Zobacz transmisje".

[sparkus8]

Totally agree with you on Ivanovic. Saw some of her matches late last year and she looked very impressive.

Thanks for the link to the live TV coverage. I wish I had of known about that earlier in the week, watching a live scoreboard update can be quite agonising.

Cheers,

Mark

[Marco]

Gald to hear we're on the same side Sparks - always nice to have a bit of solidarity.

If Ivanovic wins the profit should just about cover the cost of my therapy sessions after Craybas @#!*ed me.

[sparkus8]

I think every man and their dog was on Cervanova yesterday, somehow I think Craybas will get her just desserts from Safina tonight though.

Anyways, let's go Ivanovic. Looking forward to watching the match :)

[Marco]

Update

Bets 85; Won 61; Lost 24
At Flat Stakes: Bet 85 units; Won 13.87 units; ROI 16.3%


Greatful for the win last night but Ivanovic will find it much harder today. Her price came in a bit so, to make it fairer, I'll reduce it to $1.45 in the record.

I have to use early lines as I won't have time to post later today. Prices may shift so I'll adjust during update if needed.


Dulko v Safarova
SF: Estoril

Experience vs inexperience a big factor here. Dulko not only has a better clay record but also has made many more final appearances than her opponent today. Safarova, who has only played 18 rated clay games, has performed extremely well to get this far in the tournament. However she has yet to meet any one in Dulko's class and will find it a lot harder today. Moreover, most of her form comes form the Challenger circuit. Dulko's running hot this week having had 3 good wins agianst Bondarenko,Zheng and Foretz. While none of these players are superstars, they're ceratinly in the same class, if not better, than 18-year-old Safarova. One also has to remember that Safarova was easily beaten by the 254 ranked Vesnina on clay during the first round of the Civitavecchia Challenger less than 2 weeks ago. My program rates Dulko a 76% chance of wiining.


Dulko $1.40
(available at a few smaller bookies but fair indication)


Henin-Hardenne v Ivanovic
SF: Warsaw

Ivanovic may well be exceeding expectations this week but she has yet to meet someone of Henin's temperament and class. While the Serb won yesterday, Dechy was definitely in the game while also managing to expose a few of Ivanovic's frailties. Ivanovic is, without doubt, an up-and-coming talent but Henin will have a potential final against mega arch-rival Clijsters clearly in her sights. Short odds, but Henin's clinical dispatch of Schydner yesterday points to her current form. As a point of interest, Henin said in a post match interview that the heavy/wet conditions evident during her match with Kabchi were very hard to deal with and that they hindered her power game. The forecast is clear today but I think she'd still prevail either way.

Henin $1.24
(available at a few smaller bookies but fair indication)

[sparkus8]

Agree with both of those picks mate.

I only saw bits and pieces of the Ivanovic match last night and from what I saw she seemed to lack the killer instinct to put her opponent away. Too many unforced errors on key points and if she does that again tonight against the classier Henin-Hardenne she will be looking at a very lopsided scoreline.

Cheers,

Mark

[Marco]

Update

Bets 87; Won 62; Lost 25
At Flat Stakes: Bet 87 units; Won 13.12 units; ROI 15.1%


Henin did enough to beat Ivanovic without looking too convincing while Dulko put in an absolute shocker. One has to question her temperament after such performances - a mental note for another day.

Na Li v Sfarova.
Estoril Final

I'm not convinced Safarova won on her own merits yesterday - more an instance of Dulko losing the plot with a large number of unforced errors. One thing I strongly believe is that Na Li will not 'fold' and will play to the very end. She's proved my assessment of her from wrong this week with a clinical display of power shotmaking - amply displayed in her 6:1 6:1 demolition of the classy yet fragile Safina. I didn't think Li's game was suited to clay and she has little experience on the surface but again, I was clearly wrong. There's been plenty of upsets this week so anything can happen yet I'm still confident enough to take the short odds.

Li $1.27 @ 5Dimes


Note: According to my program Kuznetsova is value around the $3 mark that is currently on offer. However I personally don't like betting against Henin. One thing my algorithms don't factor is finals pressure and I'm sure Justine will be keen to beat Kuznetsova who bested her arch-rival Clijsters. I'd like to bet on Henin but she's too short and was a little up and down yesterday by her high standards.

[Marco]

Bets 88; Won 62; Lost 26
At Flat Stakes: Bet 88 units; Won 12.12 units; ROI 13.8%

Peng lost last night so a poor end to a poor week.

More chaos today as bookies are excruciatingly slow to price up. I'll list bets and very early lines as there's only about 2 hours before the start of play and only a handful of bookies are online for WTA. I'm still crunching numbers but have placed the following bets.

Garrigues v Panova
Berlin: Round 1

Clay specialist v returning from illness and hard-court specialist Panova.

Garrigues $1.50


Pierce v Chakvetadze
Berlin: Round 1

Experience vs inexperience. But for 1 game, Pierce has been in solid form over past 2-3 weeks.

Pierce $1.45


Peschke v Sucha
Berlin: Round 1

Solid clay-couter who cruised through qualies up against out-of-form Sucha coming off a double bagel last week.

Peschke $1.50

[Marco]

Bets 90; Won 64; Lost 26
At Flat Stakes: Bet 90 units; Won 13.02 units; ROI 14.5%

Two wins and a void as Sucha withdrew and was replaced by LL Haynes.

Very jumbled start to the week in terms of bookies prices. There was a wide discrepancy in the early odds yesterday and some very attractive early prices - even a few arbs available. I'm not sure why, but there was also a lot on money traded on Betfair - again some very interesting prices. It's a pity there aren't more days like it!

Garrigues' price came in fairly quickly so I'll record her at $1.45 in the record as opposed to the early $1.50.

Please note: I'm going to introduce half-unit stakes for betting purposes. Flat stakes are a great means of comparing various tipping systems but it makes it difficult to back outsiders on a consistent basis. This also permits a little conservatism during the topsy-turvy changeover between surfaces.

My personal betting stakes are proportional to my perceived overlay - it's a modified form of Kelly betting.


Randriantefy v Dechy
Berlin: Round 1

Dechy's a good chance of winning this but the price on Randriantefy is too high. Randriantefy played one poor game against Na Li last week so I feel her price is an over reaction. Remember Dechy was beaten on red clay by the unheralded Muesberger in the Fed Cup less than two weeks ago. She also played poorly against Paszek in the same series. Her record on clay is a competent 60/49 compared to Randriantefy's 114/59. Punters are probably reacting to Dechy's solid showing in her loss to Ivanovic in Warsaw but I wouldn't be taking the low odds on that result alone. Like all players Randriantefy can have bad days but there's no way she should be rated a 30% chance of winning as the average prices suggest.

Randriantefy $3.35 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT.

Savchuk v Tanasugarn
Morocco: Round 1

Not too many bookies pricing this up but Savchuk's a real chance. Tanasugarn may be about 100 ranking places higher than her opponent but nearly all her form is on hard. Her clay record stands at 12/33 and she only plays two or three torunaments on the surface each season. Savchuk is a young up-and-comer who played in Warsaw last week where she won three qualies and her first round match against the highly-rated Pennetta. It's true that Pennetta has been troubled by injury but Savchuk has also cruised through the qualies this week and should be well used to the conditions. This is Tanasugarn's first WTA game on the dirt since last year's French Open.

Savchuk $1.80 @ Interwetten 1 UNIT
(There could be better prices later - Interwetten have poor margins but not that many books are posting lines on Morocco)

[Marco]

Sorry for the late info but there's still 2.5 hour for the first game and about 4 hours before the second game. (My internet server dropped out this arvo).

Peng v Vento-Kabchi.
Berlin: Round 2

Peng may not be a superstar on clay but then neither is Kabchi. The Chinese player is improving with every game and she always display a great deal of tenacity. The surface isn't made for her power game but she often makes up for it with good movement. Her 30/7 clay career record is improving each week while kabchi's is still as poor as ever (27/44). The prices are on the value line for Peng but she has made great strides in the past few weeks.

Peng $1.60 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit


Peschke v Zvonereva
Berlin: Round 2

The question here is whether Zvonereva's dreadful form slump will continue. The last few weeks of the hardcourt season were poor by her standards and her efforts in Charlston and Warsaw were very ordinary. On her day she has a great clay game so today's outcome will depend a lot on her attitude. She sounds very 'disappointed' during post match interviews. To be sure, Peschke is no superstar but she's been playing well over the past few weeks and has the benefit of some solid wins in the qualies. She also played well at Amelia Island reaching the third round after coming through qualies.

Peschke $2.70 generally available HALF UNIT

[Marco]

Bets 94; Won 67; Lost 27
Units Staked: 93 units; Won 15.64 units; ROI 16.8%

(the above format has changed very slightly as I've added the use of half units)


Three wins and a loss so a good night. Funnily enough the bet I was most confident of - Savchuk - ended up being the loser. Randriantefy drifted to $3.60 at some books and Peschke got close to $3.00 but I'll leave them as they were in the records.

I'll post early lines and can adjust prices in the record if they come in. Probably better to get info out early after my ISP's dropout yesterday.


Pierce v Likhovtseva
Berlin: Round 2

Pierce has been in good form recently and has only had the one poor game during the clay swing (losing to the in-form Vives at Charleston). Judging by her interviews she's very determined to have a good clay season and has high aims for Roland Garros this year. Pierce has a solid 90/41 record on the surface and relies on her power as her 'large' frame means she's not the best mover. Likhovtseva is a real journeywoman who, at age 29, is nearing the end of her career. She doesn't seem to favour any surface and is a competent 65/54 on the surface. Both players are known to throw in shockers every now and again but Pierce has the form and mental edge for mine.

Pierce $ 1.68 @ 1 Unit.
(I don't bet at Hills but this is an early line - should be others soon)


Randriantefy v Shaughnessy
Berlin: Round 2

I wrote about Randriantefy yesterday so won't repeat it here. She comes up against Shaughnessy who was very nearly beaten by the lowly-ranked Prusova yesterday. Much of this rustiness may have been due to a nagging back injury that has forced her to retire twice in the past month. Ive never rated Shaughnessy on clay as she relies too much on her serve and is far more at home on hardcourts. Her career record is an average 60/53 with far fewer wins over competent clay-court specialists. Huge odds in my opinion.

Randriantefy $1.83 @ Will Hills 1 Unit.


Pennetta v Jankovic
Berlin: Round 2

Pennetta has won two tournaments on red clay this year and though the fields weren't that strong, she is still a classy player on the dirt. Her carrer record stands at 85/38 compared to Jankovic's 34/25. The only cloud over Pennetta is a recent foot injury but judging by her result and general play yesterday, she seems to be over it (she withdrew form Charlston 3 weeks ago). Jankovic's a tenacious competitor and this game is sure to be close, but the odds on her are surprisingly low. This would have been a full unit but for the small injury concern.

Pennetta $2.50 @ Will Hills HALF UNIT.


Martinez v Dulko
Berlin: Round 2

Martinez has been a bit up and down over the past few weeks after a great start to the hardcourt season. Having said that, Dulko is one of the moodiest players on tour - as a seen by her total capitulation in losing to safarova last week. After losing the first set tiebreak she just spat the dumy and stopped playing - going on to lose 0:6. Dulko goes ok on clay and although she has a 40/23 career record her best results have come on hard. This match should be another close encounter - Martinez definitely has the game to win but there is a small question mark over her form.

Martinez $2.30 @ Will Hills HALF UNIT

[Marco]

This is unofficial but Savchuk may have won last night. The official site has her playing tonight and several bookies have priced up the game.

Funnily enough ESPN reported Savchuk as winning last night but I thought the mistake was there's and not the official site. Even if Tansugarn won and then withdrew for whatever reason, there's 3-4 players who would be promoted as the LL rather than Savchuk.

Again, it's unofficial but this is such a small tournament with poor coverage that I wouldn't be surprised. Cross your fingers if you placed a bet.

[CJ Punter]

Regarding Savchuk - I was paid for a win, and very happy to receive it.

While I'm on, a big thanks to Marco, Betsy and Karla for all there info - I have been following you for a week or so, and am delighted with how it's going.

Keep up the great work.

CJ

[Marco]

Thanks CJ -

I too have now been paid for the win so I guess that just about makes it official as I don't know too many bookies who willingly part with their cash. The amended update now reads:

Bets 94; Won 68; Lost 26
Units Staked: 93 units; Won 17.44 units; ROI 18.5%

[karla909]

You ripper - changed my whole day :)

Centrebet ticket - I took out the wager amount..

Thanks Marco

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 bgColor=#2e4473 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=betsHeading1 bgColor=#2e4473 colSpan=6 height=25>Single Bets </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ccccff><TD class=betsHeading3 bgColor=#dc0600>STATUS </TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>Description</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#d0c09e>Price</TD><TD class=betsHeading3 noWrap align=right bgColor=#ac6434>Wager AUD</TD><TD noWrap align=right bgColor=#ffffff>Payout</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>Results</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top bgColor=#edeef2><TD vAlign=top align=middle>Paid </TD><TD>WTA Rabat Round 1 - SAVCHUK v TANASUGARN - Head To Head - SAVCHUK, Olga (UKR) <WBR> Win</TD><TD vAlign=center align=right>1.57 </TD><TD vAlign=center align=right></TD><TD vAlign=center align=right></TD><TD vAlign=center>SAVCHUK, Olga (UKR) 2 - 0
(Winner)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Karla

[Marco]

Bets 98; Won 70; Lost 28
Units Staked: 96 units; Won 17.27 units; ROI 17.6%


Two wins and two losses for a very small loss. Both winners were avaliable at slightly better prices so it was possible to get a break-even position but I'll leave the early lines in the record.

Pierce v Petrova
Berlin: Round 3

This will be a big ask of Pierce but she's in superior form to Petrova at the moment and has had two good wins here in Berlin. She's also more experienced (90/41 clay record), rates clay as her favourite surface and, as mentioned yesterday, is very determined to play well during this swing. Pierce recently beat Petrova on hard which is only relevant because it is the Russian's favourite surface (Indian Wells 6:2 6:2). Mary should therefore enter this game with some confidence. Petrova certainly has the game to win today but a large part of her price reflects her reputation on hard where she's had most of her success. The slow European clay conditions don't really suit her game as she prefers it much faster (grass is her second-best surface). Petrova's clay record stands 44/30 but she hasn't beaten anyone of note on red clay for more than two years. Her best clay results have been on American green clay which has a higher speed-rating than red. That said, I'm going to be cautious and take a half unit.

Pierce $2.50 HALF UNIT
(This is an early line available at a few smaller books with poor margins. I expect better later).


Shaughnessy v Bovina
Berlin: Round 3

At the risk of contradicting myself I'm backing Shaughnessy - someone, as I said yesterday, I don't rate on clay. However if on current form she can beat Randriantefy in straight sets she can surely beat Bovina as red clay is far from the Russian's best surface. Sure she's competent but her second round match against Daniilidou yesterday showed her vulnerabilty as Daniilidou is very ordinary on the dirt. This was also evident in her struggle to beat Hantuchova in Warsaw last week as Hantuchova is another player who is ordinary on clay. There are minor concerns over Shaughnessy who has had a nagging back
injury but according to reports, this didn't seem to hamper her yesterday. I'll take the long odds but another cautious approach for a half unit.

Shaughnessy $4.75 @ Sportstab HALF UNIT
(Maybe slightly better prices later)

NOTE: If anyone with a Betfair account wants a small-stakes fun bet, lay Henin at around the $1.10 mark. A ten dollar bet returns around $100. My reasoning is Henin had to play 2 matches yesterday - both were 3-setters and she looked a tad ordinary in her losing sets. She must be knackered and played Warsaw last week with heavy strapping on her thigh. She'll probably come out and win but there's some 'beer-money' value at those prices.

NOTE TWO: At this stage of the tournament Mauresmo stands out as the likely finalist from the bottom half of the draw. Henin, Clijsters, Sharapova and Kuznetsova are all in the top half. Mauresmo has to face Razzano today and maybe Petrova or Bovina, both of whom are vulnerable as explained in today's tips. She's worth backing now at $5.50 or more on Betfair which then gives you the opportunity to lay her back if she makes the final for a guaranteed profit. Mauresmo is currently rated 'number one' for clay form in my database (her record is 100/37 on clay). You could back her at the bookies but I doubt you'll get the same price as Betfair - Ladbrokes go $5.00.

[Marco]

Bets 100; Won 70; Lost 30
Units Staked: 97 units; Won 16.27 units; ROI 16.7%

A poor evening with two losses. Pierce was well supported in the betting and fought back in the second set but just wasn't good enough on the day. Shaughnessy was generally outclassed.


Mauresmo v Petrova
Berlin: QF

Wrote about these two yesterday so won't repeat it here. Mauresmo's 101/30 record speaks for itself and after a very nervous start yesterday (trailed 0:4 first set), she went on to wipe Razzano off the court 6:4 6:2. There's a lot of ranking places and serious prize money up for grabs this week so I expect the top players like Mauresmo to be very focused. If she's on her game - and there's no reason to think she won't be - then Petrova faces a real struggle.

Mauresmo $1.36 @ Ladbrokes
(Early line)


Kuznetsova v Schydner
Berlin: QF

Kuznetsova has been in great form over the past few weeks, displaying her power game in Warsaw and her determination in Berlin. Martinez really puched her yesterday in a close 3 setter, but Conchita is no mug on clay and her game is very difficult to counter. As a comparison, Kuznetsova beat Clijsters in Warsaw (2:6 6:2 6:3) while Schydner beat Clijsters yesterday after Kim self-destructed and then retired. Schydner was trailing 6:7 1:5 and saved 4 match points before Clijsters for some obscure reason, totally collapsed. Both Kuznetsova and Schydner are solid clay players but the Russian is in better form and is far more mentally stable than Schydner who, like quite a few of the players on tour, can throw in really shocking peformances. Kuznetsova is right on the value line but I'll take the bet.

Kuznetsova $1.33 @ Will Hills
(Early Line)


NOTE: I still believe there's some value in Mauresmo outright around the $4.50 mark at Betfair. Her next two opponents will be Petrova and probably Bovina both of whom are very beatable on clay. In the top half of the draw, Henin plays Sharapova today which eliminates one of them so Mauresmo's price will certainly come in after tonight's game . . . should she win. Personally I'd only recommend this bet if you're able to lay back your stake at Betfair if needed should Mauresmo make the final. It will surely help our cause if Henin wins tonight.

[Marco]

Bets 102; Won 70; Lost 32
Units Staked: 99 units; Won 14.27 units; ROI 14.4%

Tough old game this punting. Not the best couple days after a promising start to the week.

The semis are too tough to pick so we''ll wait for the finals.

[Marco]

Rome Masters and Prague Open

http://www.pragueopen.cz/2005/index.php?setlang=en
http://www.telecomitaliamasters.federtennis.it/home.asp?LNG=EN

Two relatively large tournaments so a lot of games to be played over the next week.
Bookies very slow to price up again so I'll post early lines. Better prices may be available from 5Dimes in an hour or so.

Early lines from Pinnacle



Daniilidou v Cho
Prague: Round 1

Daniilidou is no superstar on clay but her Korean opponent is both inexperienced and unsuited to the surface (2/8 career record spanning several years). Cho is first up on the dirt while Daniilidou played with reasonable success in Warsaw and Berlin.

Daniilidou $1.35 1 UNIT


Nagyova v Tanasugarn
Prague: Round 1

Nagyova is a competent clay player while Tanasugarn has a resord similar to Cho's. see last weeks write up Savchuk v Tanasugarn. This is basically a bet against the Thai.

Nagyova $1.40 1 UNIT


Kostanic v Osterloh
Prague: Round 1

Kostanic has a solid clay record and is at home on the surface while Osterloh is a hard courter who relies on her big serve to keep her in games. The slow conditions won't suit her and historically she has struggled on the surface.

Kostanic $1.25 1 UNIT


Fedak v Stosur
Rome: Round 1

Fedak came through qualies, has a better clay record than Stosur and has been in marginally better form over the past month or two. Stosur prefers it much faster, is first up on red clay and has a moderate 20/21 career record.

Fedak $1.60 HALF UNIT


Garrigues v Jidkova
Rome: Round 1

Garrigues is a specialist clay-courter who shows a bit of tenacity on the dirt. She has a superior clay record to her opponent which is a poor 30/34. Garrigues also has better recent form - Jidkova lost in Berlin's first round to Vento-Kabchi who is very ordinary on clay.

Garrigues $1.42 1 UNIT


Jankovic v Randriantefy
Rome: Round 1

I have a lot of respect for Randriantefy and she's won quite a few bets for me but her recent form is on the decline. In contrast, Jankovic is on the up and she is mentally very strong. Put in a very solid peformance in Berlin - showed she can play with the "big girls" on the dirt.

Jankovic $1.33 1 UNIT


Groenefled v Serra-Zanetti
Rome: Round 1

Zanetti will be the home crowd favourite but she has a negative clay record with her best results coming on the Challenger tour. She did ok in Acupulco this year but Groenefeld has the better record and better recent form. The German showed her power htting in Berlin last week and has a couple of Challenger tournament wins on clay.

Groenefeld $1.40 HALF UNIT


Dechy v Camerin
Round 1: Rome

Camerin will be another home crowd favourite and while her clay record is ok, her recent form is terrible. She was beaten two weeks ago by 634 ranked Cornet on the Challenger clay circuit and was beaten in the first round of Amelia Island and Charleston. Dechy played well in Warsaw and should have enough today.

Dechy $1.25 1 UNIT

[Marco]

Bets 110; Won 75; Lost 35
Units Staked: 106 units; Won 13.37 units; ROI 12.6%

Short on time so abbreviated picks: ALL 1 UNIT

Smashnova-Pistolesi v Likhovtseva
Rome: Round 1

Pistolesi has the clay skills to win this game against an indifferent Likhovtseva.

Pistolesi $2.15 Pinnacle
Garbin v Linetskya
Rome: Round 1

Returning-from-injury Linetskya with moderate clay record meets in form Garbin.

Garbin $2.20 Pinnacle

Pennetta v Asagoe
Rome: Round 1

Some concern over Pennetta's foot but home crowd favourite with great clay credentials.

Pennetta $1.83 WillHill

Razzano - Vento-Kabchi
Rome: Round 1

In-form Razzano meets Kabchi who rates clay as her least favourite surface.

Razzano $1.55 Pinnacle
Vinci v Chladkova
Rome: Round 1

Similar skill levels but Vinci will have crowd on her side and has recently won clay challenger.

Vinci $2.25 Pinnacle

Ivanovic v Golovin
Rome: Round 1

Another game of similar skill levels. Ivanovic as been on red clay for a few weeks whereas Golovin's
been off for a few weeks.

Ivanovic $2.10 Pinacle

[Macca]

Well done marco. You have a ton of ability on WTA form. Keep up the great work.

[Marco]

Bets 116; Won 79; Lost 37
Units Staked: 112 units; Won 15.70 units; ROI 14%


Pennetta v Linetskya
Rome: Round 2

Still not convinced that Linetskya is at home on clay while Pennetta, despite
a small concern over her foot, has a stellar clay record.

Pennetta $1.57 1 UNIT Ladbrokes


Mauresmo v Stosur
Rome: Round 2

Go Aussie! I don't think so. You won't see me betting at these odds too often but Mauresmo just has too much game for the hard-courter Stosur.

Mauresmo $1.10 generally available 1 UNIT


Jankovic v Zvonereva
Rome: Round 2

Jankovic is red-hot at the moment while Zvonereva is in a woeful form slump (0-3 over the past clay month). zvonereva is a good clay-courter so this could be close.


Jankovic $1.50 1 UNIT 5Dimes


Petrova v Santangelo
Rome: Round 2

Santangelo - a surprise winner yesterday - has a poor clay record at the WTA
level while Petrova had her chances of beating Henin-Hardenne in last week's
Berlin clay Final. Short odds again but some value.

Petrova $1.18 1 UNIT 5Dimes


Martinez v Smashnova
Rome: Round 2

Should be a close game but Martinez is in better form over the past few weeks. Smashnova usually has trouble with Martinez's style of play as it limits her power so she will be relying on her serve.

Martinez $1.71 1 UNIT 5Dimes

[Marco]

Thanks for the support Macca - always appreciated.

To be honest, the past 4 weeks has been a rather ordinary spell. I'm very marginally ahead over this recent period but as with all punting, it's the long-term that's important.

I've had a few email questions recently about my returns (woof9898@yahoo.com.au) so in summary: my program has generated just over 1500 bets in the 16 months they've been running for a 12.65% return. But I wouldn't take my word for it, I'd recommend tracking these tips for about 300 selections before being confident my methods aren't due to luck.

[Marco]

Bets 121; Won 82; Lost 39
Units Staked: 117 units; Won 14.72 units; ROI 12.6%


Martinez v Petrova
Rome: Round 3

Petrova may well come out and win this but Martinez is a crafty and very experienced clay courter who shouldn't be underestimated. Petrova's way too short in the market.

Martinez $3.75 @ Ladbrokes HALF UNIT


Dulko v Linetskya
Rome: Round 3

Linetskya squeaked passed Pennetta yesterday so she has some form but I still rate Dulko a superior clay player. My only complaint regarding Dulko is that she's rather temperamental.

Dulko $1.70 Pinnacle 1 UNIT


Pous Tio v Nagyova
Prague:

Should be a close game but Pous Tio has the edge after winning last week's
Cagnes sur Mer (C75) clay Challenger tournament. She also has a superior
all-round record which should overcome Nagyova's home crowd support.

Pous Tio $1.75 Pinnacle 1 UNIT


Schnyder v Ivanovic
Rome: Round 3

Never a good idea to underestimate Ivanovic as she can certainly play but Schnyder has the edge and better record on clay. Ivanovic's looked a little off her game in her last two clay matches whereas Schnyder's played quite consistently.

Schnyder $1.90 @ Centrebet 1 UNIT
(not often we see standout WTA prices from Centrebet)



NOTES: Mauresmo is way too short in the market. I'd back Farina Elia but the bookies are keeping the outsider short. The 0-6 h2h record doesn't bother me as the only relevant games have been close enough. Farina Elia in front of a home crowd could go close - they played a 3-setter in the QF's of this tournament last year. Betfair account holders could consider laying Mauresmo around $1.17-ish (equals odds around $6.58 for Farina Elia) but I wouldn't go in too hard.

[sparkus8]

Mate you were dead unlucky tonight, you should of had the sweep. I still can't comprehend how Dulko lost her match after all the chances she had.

[Marco]

Bets 124; Won 84; Lost 40
Units Staked: 120 units; Won 15.37 units; ROI 12.8%


The bookies have posted Prague very early today - it's about time! I may post an extra bet when Rome lines are released. I'd like a price on Schnyder.

Ondraskova v Diaz-Oliva
Prague QF

Diaz-Oliva has the experience while Ondraskova has the recent form with a solid showing in Warsaw last week and a good finals appearance at the Dinan clay challenger 2 weeks ago. Should be close but value with the outsider.

Ondraskova $2.15 @ 5Dimes 1 UNIT


Brandi v Pous Tio.
Prague: QF

Pous Tio, though a true clay-courter, doesn't play very often at this level. Her best form has been in Challengers, many of them lowly rated C10's and C50's. She won for us yesterday but if hard-courter Brandi gets her serve going, Pous Tio will find the going much harder. Brandi's win over the highly-ranked clay-courter Loit in Round 1 underlines this bet.

Brandi $2.05 @ WillHills 1 UNIT
(Prices could vary a lot on this match-up - bookies might find them hard to split)

[Marco]

Sparks - a sweep would have been nice but lady luck can sometimes bite you on the arse. Dulko really threw the match away after leading 3:0 in the second. She has a great deal of talent but her mental tencacity is often questionable.

(Today's bets below).

[Marco]

Bets 126; Won 85; Lost 41
Units Staked: 122 units; Won 15.52 units; ROI 12.7%


1-1 last night for a small profit.


Safina v Pous Tio
Prague: SF

Pous Tio did the job yesterday and has generally exceeded expectations this week. However Safina is about 3 or 4 classes above anyone she's played thus far and while the odds are short, there's still value in the Russian's price.

Safina $1.18 @ WillHills 1 Unit


NOTES: I wouldn't be backing Sharapova in either of her next two matches. Schnyder can certainly win today and it's worth laying Sharapova at Betfair below $1.20 for a small sum. If Sharapova prevails - and if she plays Mauresmo in the final, she will probably start favourite (judging by outright prices). However Sharapova's recent results reinforce my opinion that she is essentially a fast-surface player. Her footwork is poor for clay and her constant "big-hitting" approach to every point leads to a lot of errors when facing a competent opponent. Sharapova will go to Number 1 in the rankings if she wins Rome so there is some motivation/pressure, but it must be noted that she's never won a clay title at WTA level. She would also have gone to Number 1 if she won Berlin last week but failed to do so when comprehensively outplayed by Henin-Hardenne. I believe Mauresmo should be favourite if she reaches the final along with Sharapova - so keep an eye on the early prices. Anything above $1.75 for Mauresmo is worth a decent punt.

[Marco]

Bets 127; Won 86; Lost 41
Units Staked: 123 units; Won 15.70 units; ROI 12.8%

Safina did just enough to win last night but a rather insipid performance.

The prices on tonights matches are about right. Mauresmo has made 5 finals
appearances in Rome and should win - but Schnyder is in very good form and is
more then capable of an upset. The same applies in Prague. Safina has the
reputation but like her brother Marat Safin, she can be a little 'erratic' at times.
Ondraskova is in good shape and has the game to win but I 'll play safe and wait
for Monday. Two new tournaments with quite a few interesting matchups.

[Marco]

Two tournaments this week as warm-ups to Roland Garros.

http://www.internationaux-tennis-strasbourg.com/en/index2.php?page=accueil
http://www.istanbulcup.com/EngDefault.aspx


There's the usual Monday hassles of bookies being slow to price up. I'll
post early lines and adjust them if the prices come in.



Craybas v Panova
Istanbul: Round 1

Perish the thought - I'm betting on Jill Craybas on clay! Well she's proved me wrong over the past few weeks and has put in some reasonable performances on the dirt. Her opponent Panova is in woeful form and is a poor 42/57 on clay.

Craybas $1.65 @ Pinnacle HALF UNIT



Bondarenko v Washington
Istanbul: Round 1

Bondarenko is young Ukranian with solid clay credentials. While her best form has been on the Challenger circuit, her opponent Washington is a poor 26/34 on clay. The ageing Washington has also lost her last 8 games with her most recent win coming at the Australian Open.


Bondarenko $1.60 1 Unit
(at smaller bookies - should be better later)



Morigami v Raymond
Strasbourg: Round 1

Raymond's been in ok form recently but is first up on red clay after a short break. Both women probably prefer it faster but Morigami, who's one of the best Japanese clay players, has recent wins over Vaidisova and Benesova. This should be close but Morigami has the edge.

Morigami $1.87 @ Centrebet 1 UNIT
(poor margins at Centrebet - may be better later)

[Marco]

Bets 130; Won 87; Lost 43
Units Staked: 125.5 units; Won 15.07 units; ROI 12.2%

Strasbourg was washed out yesterday so it's turning into a bit of
a shambles with a lot of games backed up.


Garrigues v Stosur
Round 1: Strasbourg.

Spanish clay-courter born on the dirt who gets a lot of balls back versus the hard-courter stosur who rates clay as her least favourite surface.

Garrigues $1.40 @ 1 Unit 5Dimes


Douchevina v Asagoe
Round 1: Strasbourg

Douchevina has been in ordinary form lately but she has been unfortunate in some repects as she's drawn some quality players. Douchevina has a better clay record than Asagoe who is playing for a Top 20 spot so she'll be motivated. Slower and wetter conditions should favour Douchevina as Asagoe doesn't play much on the dirt.

Douchevina $2.58 HALF UNIT 5Dimes


Groenefeld v Diaz-Oliva
Round 1: Istanbul

The hard-hitting German is at home on clay and has had a successful Challenger tour on the surface. She's young and fiesty as opposed to the inconsistent Diaz-Oliva who has few Top 50 wins under her belt.

Groenefeld $1.60 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit

[Marco]

Bets 133; Won 90; Lost 43
Units Staked: 128 units; Won 16.64 units; ROI 13%


Three from three last night so a good result.

Prices have been fluctuating more so than usual so it's best to keep an eye on the market. In the record I'll lower Groenefeld to $1.55 and Douchevina to $2.50 as their prices came in a wee bit. They could have been bet at higher prices but these only lasted an hour or so. Douchevina drifted as high as $2.70

May post extra 2 bets after 5Dimes and Pinnacle price up. I'd like a price on Groenefeld and Smashnova.

Garrigues v Frazier
Strasbourg: Round 2

An ageing hard-courter, Amy Frazier, meets an in-form clay-court specialist. Frazier has a negative clay record (24/27) and is coming off some ordinary form. She beat defending champion Schaul in a rain affected match but Schaul is also in the worst form of her career. Garrigues is the sort of player who gets everything back and she should have too much today.

Garrigues $1.80 @ Centrebet 1 Unit
(might be better prices later as poor margins at Centrebet)


Morigami v Peer
Istanbul: Round 2

A close match-up. Peer is a young up-and-comer who's relatively inexperienced on clay as she prefers it much faster. I feel a lot of her price is based on her reputation as opposed to her clay skills. Morigami was impressive in her Round 1 demolition of Lisa Raymond. The Japanese player is two-handed on both sides which seems to suit this surface. A close game but the edge is with Morigami.

Morigami $1.80 @ Olympic 1 Unit
(also available at smaller books. Might be better prices later but this is ok value)


Notes: I wouldn't advise backing Vaidisova at such short odds. However, she's definitely worth laying below $1.20 for a small sum at Betfair (you'll probably be able to lay her below $1.15). Vaidisova's has a big reputation but is inexperienced on clay. She's first up here while Abramovic came through qualies.

[Marco]

Bets 135; Won 91; Lost 44
Units Staked: 130 units; Won 16.39 units; ROI 12.6%

One win and one loss last night for a small betting loss.

Garrigues price came in slightly so I'll reduce her to $1.75 in the record.

Groenefeld v Vaidisova
Istanbul: QF

I rate the hard-hitting Groenefeld a better clay-court player than Vaidisova. For a start Groenefeld's has a 59/23 record on clay compared to Vaidsova's 8/3 record. She's also won several Challenger tournaments - something Vaidisova hasn't done. Nonetheless this should be a close game but Vaidisova's glamour factor and hardcourt reputation are skewing her price. She may of course win but the value is with the fiesty red-headed German.

Groenefeld $2.30 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit
(higher prices available at smaller bookies)


Garrigues v Douchevina
Strasbourg: QF

Prior to this tournament Douchevina was in woeful form and while she's had a couple of good results here, she doesn't deserve to be favourite as she is at some bookies. Garrigues is in good form, has more experience and better career results on clay.

Garrigues $2.09 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit

[moeee]

Not the slightest bit interested in WTA,but congratulations on your profit and congratulations on sharing your output.

[mecurial]

Good effort with Garrigues Marco.

Took your advice last night, but tonight, unfortunately, stayed away.

[Marco]

Thanks Moeee and Mercurial - much appreciated.

Moeee - to be honest, I'm not a huge fan of tennis myself - women's or men's.

I ended up betting on the WTA because of the sports I tested on my computer model, women's tennis provided the best returns. I've also found it beneficial to specialise in one sport.

One thing with these tips is that they're only of any real value over the long-term. A 16-month history suggests the current 12-13% ROI is a realistic return so there's not much chance of being an 'overnight success'.

Good luck with the punt.

[Macca]

One thing with these tips is that they're only of any real value over the long-term. A 16-month history suggests the current 12-13% ROI is a realistic return so there's not much chance of being an 'overnight success'.

Good luck with the punt.Marco, Great work. Do not sell yourself short. On your 16 months statistics, you are sitting on a potential cash cow.
If we bring your 16 month total bets of 1500 back to a 12 month average of 1125 bets you will soon see why.
At a paltry $500 per unit (playing one unit per play), you would generate $562,000 per annum in turnover. At a ROI of 12%, a profit of $67,500 would result.
Your high strike rate ensures that a "Risk of Ruin" is negligible if you started with working capital equivalent to 40 units or $20,000.
Now most of the "mugs" on this site would have to agree that $67,500 tax free per year is not too shabby at all. The problem with most on this forum is that they would not be prepared to put up the $20K in the first place and if they did, they would probably not have the intestinal fortitude to keep placing $500 on EVERY play especially after the inevitable "losing sequence" kicks in.
I have been lurking on here for a while and I must say it is refreshing to see posts of your calibre. I rarely post because I'm not into "free tips competitions", and tips like "I think such and such is a good bet" when there is no logical backup to the accompanying statement. I think I recall on the AFL forum someone said he thought a certain team would win the flag and then proceeded to tell us he had never seen them play. Give me a break!!
Your posts are truly logical and give the reader some insight into why you are picking a certain player.
Keep up the tremendous work.

[Marco]

Bets 137; Won 92; Lost 45
Units Staked: 132 units; Won 16.39 units; ROI 12.4%

One win and one loss last night. I'll reduce Garrigues' price to $2.00 in the record as it came in a bit. This makes last night a break-even affair (though those betting early would have made a small profit).

Smashnova-Pistolesi v Vaidisova
Istanbul: SF

I'll oppose 16-year-old Vaidisova again. Sure, she's proved me wrong twice this week but Smashnova is the best clay player Vaidisova has faced in her very short 9/3 WTA clay career. Smashnova's record is 106/72 which includes many wins over top-ranked players. Her best tournament performances have come on clay and she's beaten 3 players this week without breaking into a sweat. Vaidisova can of course win but her price is rather surprising. The value is definitely with Smashnova.

Smashnova $1.90 @ Centrebet 1 Unit


Garrigues v Dechy
Strabourg: SF

Garrigues has played well this week though today's game is a tough proposition. Dechy's a capable player but she is very inconsistent on clay. Her recent form has been rather patchy and Garrigues, while not having any big weapons, is frustratingly good at using the baseline to make opponents play a lot of balls. Dechy will need to be at her best - something she hasn't been in her games this week.

Garrigues $2.65 @ Centrebet 1 UNIT
(there's better prices available at smaller bookies)

[Marco]

Thanks Macca.

I will say one thing, punting, full-time or part-time, is a tough game and it's never quite as easy as we think. I appreciate the 12-13% is a solid ROI but past returns are no indictaion of future profits etc etc so I try to take a low key approach. In the end it's just another desk job - do the research, crunch the numbers.

Mind you, I still boot the TV every now and again when certain bets lose - but I'm getting better at it (losing that is, not kicking the TV)

[Marco]

Bets 139; Won 93; Lost 46
Units Staked: 134 units; Won 17.04 units; ROI 12.7%


One win and one loss last night for a nice profit. The prices are about right for the finals so no bets. Domachowska was almost a bet but not quite enough value. Venus should win in a canter (plus her draw at Roland Garros looks very favourable).

Back Monday - there should be a fair bit of action.

[Marco]

Roland Garros

http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/index.html

One of the great tennis events of the year.

#1 Seed: Lindsay Davenport - The only Grand Slam she hasn't won. Clay definitely her worst surface. Very poor mover/footwork on the dirt. She's never won better than a Tier 3 title on red clay and she won't win this year.

#2 Seed: Maria Sharapova - Has never won a title on red or green clay. had the chance to go to Number 1 on two occassions in the past few weeks and blew them both. Her big-hitting style and lack of patience doesn't suit the surface. She won't win this year.

#3 Seed: Amelie Mauresmo - has the game to win, of that there's no doubt but does she have the mental tenacity. She's well known for her Grand Slam failures including Roland Garros - her home court and favourite surface. An outside chance this year.

#4 Seed: Elena Dementieva - Has played only 1 game on red this swing which she lost. Her infamous weak serve is less of a problem on clay but her mental fragility often sees her collapse in a heap. A finalist last year but this was more of a 'one-off so definitely worth opposing.

#5 Seed: Anastasia Myskina - defending champion beset by personal problems (ill mother) is in a horrible form slump. She's also carrying a nagging shoulde injury which has limited her once-effective serve. She will not win this year and is worth opposing.

#6 Seed: Svetlana Kuznetsova - Hasn't been at her best leading into the tournament and is more of an all round player as opposed to clay specialist. Will win a few but worth opposing later in draw.

#7 Seed: Nadia Petrova - has been in solid form during this clay swing and on her day she can beat the best players. Her one weakness is her mental nerve - like many of her compatriots she can surrender fairly meekly.

#8 Seed: Patty Schnyder - an excellent clay player who is in the best form of her career. Plenty of experience and she can go deep into the draw. Can she win? I doubt it. Her mental discipline is improving but she's prone to the odd shocker. A dark horse worth following.

#9 Seed: Vera Zvonareva - she's all over the place this season. Though winning a few recent games, she's been in a terrible form slump and hasn't won on red clay above Tier 3. Worth opposing as she will throw in a shocker sometime during this tournament.

#10 Seed: Justine Henin-Hardenne - an out-and-out champion on any surface . . . but even better on clay. She's won a couple of tournaments after an 8 month injury layoff and should win this. Not much value in the outrights but worth following later in the tournament.

#11 Seed: Venus Williams - just won the lowly rated Istanbul clay tournament and in good form over the past few weeks. Has a solid clay record and the ability but never seems to fare well at Roland Garros. An outside chance but she'll have to be at her best.

Notes: Kim Clijster's almost withdrew from the tournament and faces a tough draw. Carrying a knee injury so worth opposing later in the draw.

Serena Williams withdrew from tournament.


First round tips posted very soon.

[Sportz]

Geez, I wish the bookies went by the seedings. Would be great if Justine was 10th in the betting!!! :D

[Marco]

Yep, I also wish that was the case Sportz.

Funnily enough Henin-H probably has one of the more difficult First Round match-ups as she plays the tricky Conchita Martinez.

[Marco]

Generally very little value on the favourites during the early rounds of slams as every man and his dog piles on the 'name' players. I'll therefore be looking to pick a few upsets with a view to making a profit across the selections.

In 2003 and 2004 the bookies favourite won 82 of the 128 First Round matches at Roland Garros. Thus favourites won approx 64% while dogs went 36%.


Krajicek v Hantuchova
Round 1

Both players will ahve to be at their best to win this as my ratings have them evenly matched coming into this game. Clay is Hantuchova's least favourite surface and she's very beatable on the dirt. Krajicek was raised on clay and while inexperienced, she has a 16/5 record and certainly has the game to win. Krajicek also has the advantage of 3 qualifying 'warm-up' wins while Hantuchova hasn't played since a first round loss in Rome. This is closer than the prices suggest so a value play on Krajicek.

Krajicek $2.50 @ generally available. HALF UNIT


Mamic v Raymond
Round 1

I rate Mamic a slight favourite here against the ageing yet very experienced Raymond. Raymond's only had the one game on red this swing - a first round loss at Istanbul - and she has a moderate 40/38 carrer record on the surface. Mamic is a clay specialist, and while a lot of her results have come on the Challenger circuit, she has a 81/35 career record. Raymond is a tough competitor and this is her 40th consecutive Grand Slam so mamic will have to be at her best, but I rate her a 56.2% chance so will take the odds.

Mamic $2.00 @ Bet365. HALF UNIT
(better prices at some smaller bookies)


Fedak v Likhovtseva
Round 1

I rate the ageing Likhovtseva a slight favourite here so the price on Fedak is appealing. Likhovtseva comes into this match in very average form. She's only played 3 games on red this swing - two of which she lost albeit to good players (Smashnova & Pierce). She does have plenty of experience and a 65/56 record but she's more of an all-rounder who prefers it a bit faster. Fedak is a stubborn player who gets a lot of balls back thereby forcing opponents to play a lot of shots. She has a 62/43 record and has quite good recent form. Fedak's a 46.7% chance in my book so I'll take her on price

Fedak $4.23 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT


Schruff v Asagoe
Round 1

Asagoe is nothing special on clay and has a 17/20 career record. She comes into this match in ordinary form having lost her first round matches in Strasbourg and Rome. These were her only 2 games on red caly during this swing. Schruff is no world-beater but she has been in good form and has a respectable 75/64 clay record. She beat Myskina in Berlin, and while defending-champion Myskina is in woeful form, this still represents a good result. I rate these two fairly evenly - though a lot of Asagoe's form comes form green clay which is a faster surface. Schruff will have to play well but she's a definite chance.

Schruff $2.75 5Dimes HALF UNIT



Kirilenko v Birnerova
Round 1

Kirilenko is a future star who has been in good form and has a solid 21/12 clay record. She took a set of Henin-H in Berlin so she knows how to play. Birnerova is a basically a Challenger player who came through qualies. She's a clay specialist with a solid 52/35 record but has few wins against Top 50 players. It's rare that I oppose qualifiers in the First round but Kirilenko shouldn't have too much trouble today - she's got plenty of spirit and always plays to win.


Kirilenko $1.32 @ 5Dimes. 1 Unit


NOTES: I wouldn't be in a hurry to back Clijster's in the early rounds until the extent of her knee injury can be gauged. Nor would I be in a hurry to back Davenport (see preview post) as she's first up on red and has been on a break for a few weeks.

[Marco]

Bets 144; Won 94; Lost 50
Units Staked: 137 units; Won 15.04 units; ROI 11%

A rather poor start to Roland Garros. Things just didn't fall our way as Fedak and Kirilenko both had good leadsonly to fall short. While frustrating, days like this are all part of the game


Peer v Bartoli
Round 1

Bartoli is first up on red clay having not competed since Miami more than 5 weeks ago where she retired with a knee injury. This is the same injury that also forced her to retire twice in the month preceding Miami. She has a 23/23 record on clay and while Peer is better on hard, she's very quick on court and has the ability to make Bartoli run. peer has a 25/12 career record though a few of these games were on the Challenger circuit.

Peer $1.85 @ 5Dimes/Centrebet 1 unit


Beltrame v Spears
Round 1

Neither of these players are world-beaters but Beltrame is a specialist clay courter with a 58/43 record who has also won several Challenger titles. Spears is a hard courter with a big serve and little else. She's 1-10 on clay and very rarely plays on the surface.

Beltrame $1.45 @ 5Dimes 1 unit

Dulko v Mirza
Round 1

Mirza can certainly play on harcourts but clay is a different matter as she rarely plays on the surface. Most of her form comes form the Challenger circuit plus she's returning from injury and is only third up on red clay having being beaten in the Strasbourg qualifiers. Dulko, while rather temperamental, is a good clay player with a history of progressing a few rounds at Roland Garros.

Dulko $1.33 @ Sportingodds/Sportingbet 1 unit

[Marco]

Just noticed that I forgot to include the following:

Garrigues v Mandula
Round 1

Garrigues is in red hot form at the moment having just won Strasbourg. Both players are solid clay-courters and while Mandula came through qualies, she hasn't played prior to this since losing in the First round of Indian Wells nearly 2 months ago. She came through qualies in straight sets so she is obviously over her injury but on the other hand she was up against very average players.

Garrigues $1.40 @ Interwetten 1 unit.

[Marco]

Bets 148; Won 98; Lost 50
Units Staked: 141 units; Won 17.07 units; ROI 12.1%

A nice comeback last night going 4-0 for a good profit. We're now break even over the opening 2 days after yesterday's loss.


Razzano v Fernandez
Round 2

Razzano is in the best form of her career and while no superstar on clay (51/42 record), she has been playing well. Her only poor recent performance was a close loss to Vento-Kabchi in Rome. Fernandez can win this as she's a specialist clay-courter who came through qualies but nearly all her form is on the Challenger circuit. This includes some recent losses to very low-ranked players such as Kudryatseva who is ranked 429th. Fernandez must be given some credit for beating Panova in the first round though the Russian is very average on clay and in ordinary form.Razzano in fornt of her home crowd has
the momentum to win this.

Razzano $1.50 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit


Farina-Elia v Parra-Sontanja
Round 2.

In theory this a bit of a mismatch. Farina-Elia is a clay specialist with a 121/67 record who is in good form at the moment. Her recent shoulder problems are well behind her and she rarely loses to players of Sontanja's calibre. Sontanja can of course win but it would take an upset of major proportions as she hasn't been playing particularly well lately. Moreover, she rarely beats players of Farina-elia's class. You won't see betting at these odds too often but there's some value in the selection.

Farina-Elia $1.14 @ Pinnacle 1 unit
(You should be able to get better odds at Betfair)


Morigami v Sprem
Round 2

Sprem is the better player but she has been in very patchy form lately. A recent change of coach and personal problems that have made headlines in Croatia have seen her lose in spectacular fashion to some very ordinary players. Today will depend a lot on her attitude. She's strung together a few ok games lately but Morigami should not be underestimated. She always puts in a big effort and fights to the last point. She's probably the most capable Japanese player on clay and has a recent win over Vaidisova. Should be close.

Morigami $2.60 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Castano v Hantuchova
Round 2

A hard-courter with an average clay record up against a specialist clay courter who is prone to some patchy form. Hantuchova got past young up-and-comer Krajicek in the First Round and deserves to be favourite but she's not at home on this surface. Her recent 1:6 2:6 loss to the average Mamic is a better indication of her form though her opponent today is also known to throw in the odd shocker. However Castano shouldn't be underestimated as she has a 77/46 record on the surface, including a few wins over highly ranked players. Hantuchova's high glamour profile and hard court reputation often distort her price so there's some value in the Columbian Castano.

Castano $2.88 @ Stan James HALF UNIT.

Loit v Frazier
Round 2

Loit is a tad unpredictable but she's a clay specialist with some ok recent form (with a few average matches thrown in). I don't rate Frazier on red clay and am always surprised at her support. Her rcord stands at 25/28 and she rarely wins over good clay players. My only concern is Loit's up-and-down attitude but the home crowd and occassion should get her across the line.

Loit $ 1.83 @ Stan James 1 Unit

[Marco]

Bets 153; Won 102; Lost 51
Units Staked: 145 units; Won 18.69 units; ROI 12.9%


Another good night going 4-1 for a nice return.


Peschke v Peer
Round 2

Experience versus enthusiasm as 29-year-old Peschke meets 18-year-old Israeli Shahar Peer. Pesckhe, while at home on the dirt, is more of an all-rounder though her 57/33 clay record reflects her ability. She's in good form at the moment as demonstrated by her 6:0 6:1 demolition of Randriantefy in the First Round. Peer certainly has ability and will chase every ball as she's extremely quick. However she lacks experience on clay and while ahe has a 26/13 record, more than half of these wins came on the Challenger circuit in lowly C10's and C25's. Peer has lost to most of the quality opponents she has faced - though she's probably in the best form of her short career. This won't be easy for Peschke but there's value in her price.

Peschke $1.53 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit.


Medina Garrigues v Maleeva
Round 2

If everything goes according to the script, then Garrigues' current form should prevail over Maleeva's very up-and-down performance over the past few months. Garrigues has just won Strasbourg and put in solid First Round 6:0 6:1 win over Mandula. She's a tough player to beat because she gets a lot of balls back over the net and has plenty of patience and experience. Her opponent Maleeva has some claims. She's at home on clay and like Garrigues, is very experienced. However Maleeva's recent form has been rather patchy and her First Round win over easy-beat Fujiwara was a tad ordinary. She can win today but it would take a big form reversal or involve Garrigues beating herself. I can't see that happening as the Spaniard is sky-high on confidence at the moment.

Medina-Garrigues $1.50 @ SportingOdds/SportingBet 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)

[Marco]

Bets 155; Won 103; Lost 52
Units Staked: 147 units; Won 18.19 units; ROI 12.3%



A relatively poor evening with Peschke losing in a rollercoaster game while Garrigues managed a straight sets win. The final result was a half unit loss for the night.


Loit v Gagliardi
Round 3

Loit is a true clay-courter who had an outstanding season last year including back-to-back clay titles in Estoril and Casablanca. This year hasn't been so good with injuries hampering her preparation so her form has been patchy at times. Roland Garros is her 'home town' slam so crowd support and her solid Round 1 and 2 performances give her a lot of momentum. Gagliardi is a very up-and-down player. Her form was so poor earlier in the year that she returned to the Challenger circuit but even this met with mixed success. Her 85/72 clay record shows Gagliardi knows the surface but she hasn't beaten anyone of consequence for some time. I don't know if Loit will go much further than this but she should be too good today.

Loit $1.50 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit


Williams v Karatancheva
Round 3

Short odds but Williams is a very good clay player with a wealth of experience. There's a lot of hype about 15-year-old Karatancheva's potential but it's a big ask for her to win today. She's never beaten a player anywhere near Venus's class. Pundits may point to Venus's relatively ordinary performance against clay-court specialist Zuluaga in Round 2, but this doesn't mean much to me as Zuluaga is a class act who would probably beat Karatancheva as well. Karatancheva has only faced Asagoe and Bondarenko thus far - Venus is a big step up. I don't bet at these odds very often but value exists at both end of the spectrum so I'll take the price.


Williams $1.13 @ Ladbrokes 1 Unit
(I'd still take Williams at $1.11 as Ladbrokes price might not last. Betfair is the best option)

[Marco]

A big upset last night with Venus losing. The Loit/Gagliardi game is suspended
at 1 set a piece so I'll update the record after all games are complete. Last
night will record a loss even if Loit wins.


Groenefeld v Schiavone
Round 3

Groenefeld has the game to win this but she'll have to be at her best. Schiavone is a very good clay player with a lot of experience and she's had a solid tournament thus far. So too Groenefeld whose 6:0 6:1 demolition of Smashnova was truly impressive. She has plenty of shots and usually attacks. Schiavone on the other hand is quite happy to grind away on court for as long as it takes - she's very patient - so expect a close game but some value with the German

Groenefeld $2.56 @ Pinnacle HALF UNIT


Golovin v Bovina
Round 3

Golovin is young Russian-born French woman with a high 'glamour' profile but clay is her least favourite surface. Her hardcourt results are impressive but she has a moderate 22/14 clay record. Golovin faced a couple of easy-beats in the first two rounds so this is her first real test and Bovina is a fairly handy player. She has a 41/20 clay record and has been in reasonable form over the past few weeks. Her one weakness is usually a drop in concentration but hopefully she'll follow on from her solid play in Rome.

Bovina $2.35 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT


Llagostera-Vives v Dechy
Round 3

A tough match up for Dechy who's a little overvalued here. I have this game much closer as although she'll have home crowd support, Dechy's clay performances have been rather mixed of late. She had a very ordinary Fed Cup on clay, played quite well in Warsaw, while Berlin and Rome involved First Round exits to average players. She made the semi finals in Strasbourg - though she didn't meet any true clay-courters until Garrigues beat her. On the other hand Vives is in very good form at the moment having won Rabat (albeit a low-rated tournament) and having two competent wins thus far. She has a 99/74 clay record so has the experience to win. Should be closer than prices indicate.

Llagostera-Vives $2.65 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT
(better prices at smaller bookies)

NOTES: Henin-Hardenne took medical attention on court during her last game and later announced she's been suffering from back pain over the past few weeks (muscle strain affecting nerve). She claims it won't be a problem over the duration of this tournament but it certainly puts a question mark next to her name. It will be interesting to see how she performs against the in-form Garrigues

[karla909]

Llagostera-Vives $2.65 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT


She's now $2.75 at Ladbrokes

[Marco]

Bets 160; Won 105; Lost 55
Units Staked: 150.5 units; Won 17.19 units; ROI 11.4%

An ordinary couple of days going 2-3 and recording a loss.

Petrova v Bovina
Round 4

Bovina did the job for us last night but this will be much harder. Petrova is an experienced clay-courter who's in very good form at the moment. She made the final in Berlin - losing in a hard fought 3-set contest against Hardenne - and dispatched her 3 opponents here at Roland Garros in straight sets. Bovina is a handy enough player but she's less successful against Top 10 players tyhan the likes of Golovin whom she beat yesterday. She also has a tendancy to 'drop off' if she gets to far behind.

Petrova $1.53 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit


Schynder v Peirce
Round 4

This should be a cracker of a game. Both players are in very good form and both are very good on clay though Schnyder has the edge. Patty's had recent wins over Sharapova, Kuznetsova and Clijsters (though Kim retired during a massive Schynder comeback). She's cruised through the early rounds and this will be her first real test. Pierce certainly won't be easy as she's played some good tennis lately but against lesser opponents than those Schnyder has faced. Mary relies on her power game as she's not such a great mover on the dirt but Schydner is a good returner and has a deft touch so should be able to make Pierce run.

Schnyder $1.55 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit

[Marco]

Bets 162; Won 106; Lost 56
Units Staked: 152.5 units; Won 16.72 units; ROI 11%


A disappointing evening with Schnyder bowing out though Petrova managed a narrow win.


Schiavone v Ivanovic
Round 4

This delayed match was close to being a bet yesterday, but Schaivone has now drifted overnight to a very good price. Ivanovic was certainly impressive in beating Mauresmo - though Amelie is a notorious choker at Roland Garros. Ivanovic isn't a particularly good mover on the dirt but has a lot of power for a 17-year-old. Her record is also good though nearly all her clay form is in lowly-ranked Challenger tournaments. Schiavone has the game and experience to win today. She's a real grinder who has tons of patience and the ability to return a lot of balls. She's not as flashy as her opponent but she has managed to reach the QF's at Roland Garros before. This will be closer than the prices indicate.

Schiavone $3.26 @ Pinnacle HALF UNIT

NOTES: Mary Pierce has a fairly good shot at the finals. The top half of the draw has Davenport, 15-year-old Karatancheva and the ageing all-rounder Likhovtseva. Pierce plays Davenport next and is a real chance of winning if she can repeat her form from the Schnyder match. You can back Pierce around 11/1 and if all goes well, there's the possibility of laying her back in the final if desired.

[Macca]

A big upset last night with Venus losing.
Your form has been fantastic to date but I really don't see the need to be backing $1.13 favourites. Seven winners out of eight only breaks square taking $1.13. Leave them for the bookies.
You are doing great with your $1.50+ plays.

[Marco]

Bets 163; Won 106; Lost 57
Units Staked: 153 units; Won 16.22 units; ROI 10.7%



Can't take a trick at the moment as Schiavone lost having led 3:1 in the third set before losing 6:3

It's certainly been a poor French Open from my point of view.


Petrova v Ivanovic
QF

I've covered these two in previous write-ups but I still think Ivanovic is over rated on clay despite her performances this week. Petrova's in great from and while this should be close, the Russian has the experience and game to win.

Petrova $1.83 @ Pinnacle 1 UNIT


Henin-Hardenne v Sharapova
QF

A difficult pick risk as Justine is carrying a back niggle and is not at her best. However her champion qualities were on display during her Third Round fightback yesterday and I doubt her ultra-competitive nature will want to lose to 'glamour girl' Sharapova. Henin's done enough this week without been her dominant self while Sharapova has yet to face any stiff opposition. Sharapova
doesn't have a particularly good clay record and has fared poorly against top ranked players.

Henin-Hardenne $1.72 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit.

[Marco]

I'm adding one more bet as the price has moved sufficiently.

There's still more than 5 hours until this game starts.

Pierce v Davenport
QF

Two similar players on clay - lots of power and not much movement. Both have solid records though Davenport tends to avoid red clay with her best wins coming on the faster American green clay (ie Har-Tru). Pierce has had the better form prior to Roland Garros as Davenport avoided all the red clay tournaments post Amelia Island/Charleston. Pierce has also had the better performance in the first four rounds with her win over Schnyder being her stand out match. Davenport had 'lucky' escapes against Peng and Clijsters both of whom she trailed by good margins. This will be a close match but I've been waiting to oppose Davenport and tonight's the night. Davenport's also carrying a slight knee niggle but it didn't seem too problematic over the past few days.

Pierce $2.34 @ Pinnacle HALF UNIT
(prices have been fluctuating all day so Pierce may drift some more).

NOTES: I'm thonk the winner of this match will reach the final so keep an eye on the outights. Pierce is around 11/1 while Davenport is around 7/1. If Hardenne loses tonight, these prices will disappear in a flash.

[Macca]

Fantastic night Marco. Three from three and all good odds. Keep up the great work. Have you ever thought of starting a subscription service privately? Another website charges big dollars for ATP tips and is currently losing about 80 units for 2005.

[Macca]

NOTES: I'm thonk the winner of this match will reach the final so keep an eye on the outights. Pierce is around 11/1 while Davenport is around 7/1. If Hardenne loses tonight, these prices will disappear in a flash.Marco, Do you think Mary will choke under the pressure if she makes the final?
Home town girl etc. She got really nervous in her previous match when she failed on numerous match points before eventually pulling through.

I'm on Henin at $3.00 and am thinking about laying some back at the Fair now that she is odds on. Schnyder was my best result at $31 but not to be. She blew a wonderful opportunity to make a Grand Slam final with the way the draw opened up in the top half.

[Marco]

Hi Macca - I think you still have value with your Henin selection so I personally wouldn't lay the bet off. She's a red hot chance of winning though Petrova won't be as easy as some people think.

My outright on Pierce had more to do with the draw opening up and the chances of her reaching the final after beating Schnyder. If Pierce makes the final I'll let the bet stand if she faces Petrova but will lay back the stake if she faces Henin.
Should be value either way.

[Marco]

Bets 166; Won 109; Lost 57
Units Staked: 155.5 units; Won 18.44 units; ROI 11.9%

A better evening going 3-0.
All 3 players were also widely available at better prices than those posted (though I'll leave them as they were in the record).

Peirce V Likhovtseva
SF

Likhovtseva is the real surprise package of this tournament. She's basically a 29-year-old journeywoman who has achieved little on the dirt but has beaten Dementieva, Farina Elia, Diaz-Oliva and Fedak thus far in Paris. On these performances she has claims today but will have to be at her very best to win. Thirty-year-old Pierce is on a real roll. Her pre Roland Garros form was strong - despite a couple of minor hiccups - while her form during this tournament has been outstanding. Likhovtseva's problem today is that she doesn't have any real weapons to win - she more or less relies on her opponent making mistakes. However she usually makes quite a few herself as her unforced error count is, more often than not, very high. Pierce may be a tad nervous as she's the last Frenchy in the tournament but she should have enough experience and desire to get home tonight.

Pierce $1.40 @ Pinnacle/5Dimes

[Macca]

Hi Macca - I think you still have value with your Henin selection so I personally wouldn't lay the bet off. She's a red hot chance of winning though Petrova won't be as easy as some people think.

My outright on Pierce had more to do with the draw opening up and the chances of her reaching the final after beating Schnyder. If Pierce makes the final I'll let the bet stand if she faces Petrova but will lay back the stake if she faces Henin.
Should be value either way.
Thanks Marco. I am actually more worried about Petrova beating Henin than the other two ladies. Petrova is a solid claycourter but at this stage I will hope Henin gets through and avoiding laying off now.

[Marco]

Bets 167; Won 110; Lost 57
Units Staked: 156.5 units; Won 18.84 units; ROI 12%


A good night with Pierce crushing Likhovtseva. Interestingly, Pierce drifted to $1.46 at the bookies and $1.50 at Betfair (net of commission) though I'll leave the original price in the record.

Final
This should be a cracker of a match but only a brave person would bet against Henin-Hardenne. That said, Pierce is in absolutely sensational form at the moment and is playing some of her best tennis in years. She can definitely win but I don't think she will - Henin-Hardenne is just an extraordinary champion. She says her goal is to finish the clay swing undefeated and not too many players have achieved that feat (or even been in a position to say it). The favourite backers have hammered Henin's price and despite everything I've said, I wouldn't be taking the $1.29-ish on offer. Hopefully some of you will have outright bets still running. Henin was my pre tournament tip and Pierce was my QF tip (see earlier posts).

We're on to grass next week so an interesting challenge changing surfaces.

[jaffa39]

For a player who a year ago looked finished she has made a remarkable comeback.

Although I think the Denamrk lass will win as I think she is near best in world when fit.

I will have to hope Pierce wins out of loyalty.

ABout 5 or so yrs ago in my first ever tennis mens/womend title doubles, at the French I took $50 worth of Pierce and Gostavo Kirten ( or whatever ) to win @ 175 to 1 10 days before start. --$8750 to $50 with Qld Tab.

Have since tried 16 doubles for 5 collects but never as good price as that french one.

Sitting up at 2 am in morning cheering Pierce and then watching Kirtens nearly throw away 2 set lead against some swede.

Go Mary, Go Mary


Cheers


Jaffa

[Sportz]

Justine was a clear and obvious selection in this tournament. Amazing that someone could be overwhelming favourite but only 10th seed. As for Pierce, a great effort to come back from where she was a year or two back. I remember seeing her at the Australian Open last year and you would have got pretty big odds on her ever reaching a grand slam final again. She's lost a fair bit of weight since then.

[Marco]

This week sees the start of the short but intense grass season. Form is always tricky at this time of year as many players have limited histories on grass. Moreover, the most recent grass games were played this time last year.

Birmingham is an important event because it's the only grass tournament many women will get to play before Wimbledon (Eastbourne's Tier 2 status limits the field while Hertogenbosch doesn't play qualifiers). Thus the 56-women field is larger than the usual 32 for this type of event.

Sharapova is the No. 1 seed and a successful defence of her title will keep her within striking distance of the No. 1 WTA ranking. There is only one other Top 10 player this week in Alicia Molik, a competent grass-courter who is returning from a 4-week absence with an inner ear infection.

Some of the seeds to watch include last year's finalist Tatiana Golovin and Shinobu Asagoe who enjoys the surface. Lisa Raymond, the 2000 champion, is seeded 14.

A few of the outsiders may also play well. These include Daniilidou who, as always, has had a poor clay swing (she won Hertogenbosch in 2002). However she faces a tough first round match against Cho who reached the semi-finals of last week's grass court Surbiton Challenger.

Tanasugarn is another who hates clay but goes ok on grass as does Kristina Brandi who just won the C25 Surbiton Challenger. Both should improve their results over the next few weeks.

Lets hope the bookies get their lines out early - if they can do it for the French Open , they should be able to offer good service each week.

[Marco]

Birmingham

Bookies very slow to price up so I have to use Centrebet prices. I imagine there'll be better lines later as Centrebet have poor margins.

Half units today as grass form very hard to read first-up.


Kremer v Perebynis
Round 1

Both players have been in poor form during the clay season but this is nothing unusual for Kremer as she prefers faster surfaces. Her 34/20 record on grass is very good and compares favourably to the records of much better players. She tends to do well in Birmingham having reached the QF's in 20002 and 2004. Perebiynis is better suited to clay though she's a respectable 11/7 on grass. The quality of the opponents she has beaten however, does not match those of Kremer.

Kremer $1.87 @ Centrebet HALF UNIT
(will probably be better prices elsewhere within an hour or so)


Panova v Washington
Round 1

Two more players who have been in very ordinary form lately. However Panova has the edge on grass with a superior record and better movement on court. Her 23/17 record includes a few wins over good grass-court players plus she beat Washington 6:3 6:4 at Wimbledon last year. Washington has only played Birmingham once before (2002) when she was knocked out in the first round. Most of her wins on grass have come in Wimbledon qualifiers though she only went on to win one first round match in those tournaments

Panova $1.68 @ Centrebet HALF UNIT
(will probably be better prices elsewhere within an hour or so)


NOTES: I'd avoid the very low prices ($1.20 - $1.30) on players such as Stosur and Morigami. While they are deserved favourites, no one should be that short at this point of the season. Past results show quite a few First Round upsets - though they're not easy to pick. Also players like Mirza and Groenefeld have no WTA records on grass to speak of so their favouritism may be based on their hardcourt results. Too much of a gamble for me.

[Marco]

Bets 169; Won 111; Lost 58
Units Staked: 157.5 units; Won 18.77 units; ROI 11.9%


The results went 1-1 last night with Kremer playing well and Panova playing poorly. Some interesting results and a few upsets so a cautious week ahead. Mostly half units again during early stages.

I'm a bit under the weather today so will keep things brief.


Brandi v Jackson
Round 1

Brandi's just won the grass-court Surbiton Challenger and has an impressive 39/19 record. She's reached QF's of Birmingham twice before and generally plays well at this time of year. Jackson won two qualifiers against reasonable opposition so shouldn't be underestimated. However she has very limited experience on grass.

Brandi $1.44 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT


Granville v Keothavong
Round 1

Granville was a beaten finalist in last weeks Surbiton Challenger. She beat Keothavong in the Second Round of this tournament 6:1 3:1 ret. Keothavong only made Birmingham as a wildcard (she's ranked 238) and has a negative 12/19 grass record

Granville $1.30 @ 5Dimes (and others) 1 Unit


Fujiwara v Jidkova
Round 1

Fujiwara is a better grass player with more experience on the surface than Jidkova whose record is a poor 6/13. Fujiwara cruised through qualifying in straight sets - albeit against easy opponents - while Jidkova is first up on the surface. The Russian is also coming off an extremely poor 3 months so I'm not sure where she is mentally.

Fujiwara $1.64 @ 5Dimes (and others) HALF UNIT


Obata v Vento-Kabchi
Round 1

Looking for an upset here. Obata's come through qualifiers, Vento-Kabchi's first up. Obata has a 22/18 record, Vento-Kabchi has a 24/19 record though her best performances were more than 4 years ago. A fairly even match-up so i'll look for value on Obata.


Obata $2.30 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT
($2.50 available at smaller bookies)


Tu v Weingartner
Round 1

Tu has come though qualifiers against a couple of reasonable opponents. She has moderate 13/14 record but has beaten a couple of good players over the years and likes it fast. Weingartner, who is first-up, has a 10/14 record and has put in a few good games at Wimbledon but she's coming off a run of 5 first round exits dating back to Indian Wells in March. Her last win was in February.

Tu $1.55 @ 5Dimes Half Unit
($1.60 available at smaller bookies)

[Marco]

Bets 174; Won 114; Lost 60
Units Staked: 160.5 units; Won 18.66 units; ROI 11.7%



3-2 last night for 0.11 unit loss.

There's been a lot of price fluctuation in the market which may reflect uncertainty over player form. Most of yesterday's picks could be found at better prices so I assume it will be the same today.

I'm still under the weather so keeping it brief.


Daniilidou v Vaidisova
Round 2

Vaidisova ahs a good junior record on grass but it's 2 years old. She has little experience at WTA level on surface and meets Daniilidou who is 22/10 on grass.

Daniilidou $3.00 Pinnacle Half Unit


Jackson v Kirilenko
Round 2

Kirilenko is another player with good junior form on grass but little experience at WTA level. She's an up-and-comer but Jackson is in good form at the moment. She came through qualies here and made SF of Surbiton last week (including win over strong grass player Tanasugarn).

Jackson $3.12 Pinnacle Half Unit


Dominikovic v Stosur
Round 2

Stosur's the better hardcourt player but far less separates them on grass. Stosur is 8/11 on the surface while Dominikovic, who played ok at Surbiton last week and came through qualies here, has 20/17 record. Their previous encounters, though not on grass, have been close (H2H equals 1-1)

Dominikovic $2.64 @ Pinnacle Half Unit


Vento-Kabchi v Fujiwara
Round 2

Vento-Kabchi has a slightly better record and played had the better first round match. Fujiwara struggled with Jidkova who is an inferior player to Vento-Kabchi on grass.

Vento-kabchi $1.69 @ Pinnacle Half Unit


Tanasugarn v Bartoli
Round 2

Playing doubles together this week but Tanasugarn is the better grass-courter. She has far more experience and better results. Bartoli has been in and out of the game with a series of knee injuries this season and has only played 1 singles game - a loss - in 2 months.

Tanasugarn $1.72 @ Centrebet Half Unit


Granville v Molik
Round 2

Molik's been out of the game for many weeks with an inner ear infection. She's a better grass-courter than Granville but is first-up on grass and first-up since playing Amelia Island in April. Granville made the finals of Surbiton last week and demolished Keothavong - as expected - in the First Round here. A small chance of an upset so taken on price.

Granville $3.54 @ Pinnacle Half Unit

[Marco]

Just noticed I forgot to add the live scoreboard link:

Website: http://birmingham.lta.org.uk/

The livescore scoreboard is well done for such a small tournament. Games start at 8pm AEST.

[Marco]

Bets 180; Won 118; Lost 62
Units Staked: 163.5 units; Won 21.35 units; ROI 13%


A good evening going 4-2 with the 'dogs' returning a very nice profit.

Plenty of upsets yesterday making for a tough round today (half units again).

These are early lines - there's been plenty of fluctuations over the past few days so it's worth keeping an eye on the market.



Jackson v Granville
Round 3

Granville deserves to be favourite but is way too short. These two played each other in the semi-final of Surbiton last week with Granville winning 6:4 7:5 in what was a close match. Granville was then beaten by Kristina Brandi in the Surbiton final - however Jackson beat Brandi in the First Round this week. Sure, Granville beat the highly rated Molik yesterday but Molik said her vision is still blurry from her ear infection and that she was happy just to finish the match. Both Granville and Jackson have similar overall records on grass so I think this will be closer than the prices suggest.

Jackson $2.70 @ Centrebet Half Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Sequerra v Jankovic
Round 3

Jankovic is ranked 20th in the WTA but most of this comes from her hardcourt and clay records. She has only played 9 games on grass at WTA level for a 5/4 record. As we've seen this week hardcourt form doesn't necessarily translate into grass court form, especially this early in the season. Sequerra is no superstar but she's played well over the past week-and-a-half competing in 7 games during this period for a 6/1 record. Her overall record on grass is 17/10. Jankovic is certainly an up-and-comer but so are Vaidisova and Kirilenko both of whom lost yesterday.

Sequerra $3.80 @ Centrebet Half Unit


Asagoe v Chakvetadze
Round 3

Youth versus experience and I'm going with the latter ss Asagoe has an impeccable 37/17 grass record. She wasn't at her best against Tu yesterday as she was first-up on the surface but despite the rustiness, she was never in trouble. Chakvetadze is yet another young player with a lot of potential but like others, she is largely untested on grass. She's played well enough this week but she's only ever played one grass tournament prior to this week (the 2004 Surbiton Challenger where she was beaten in the final). She can win today but it will be her toughest test thus far.

Asagoe $1.72 @ Centrebet Half Unit
(may be better prices later).


Washington v Parra Sontanja
Round 3

Should be a close match and will come down to who serves the best. Washington's been on top of her game this week beating both Panova and Razzano without too many problems. Sontanja got past the highly rated Hantuchova yesterday so she must have a chance today. However I'm of the opinion that the rusty Hantuchova who was first-up did more to beat herself. This should be close but Washington has been more impressive this week.

Washington $1.85 @ Interwetten Half Unit

[Marco]

Bets 184; Won 119; Lost 65
Units Staked: 165.5 units; Won 20.27 units; ROI 12.3%


A poor night going 1-3 and dropping a unit.

Tanasugarn v Granville
QF

Tanasugarn can be a frustrating player to back as she's prone to throwing in a 'shocker' every now and again. However such performances are less likely on grass as it's her favourite surface and scene of her best wins. Her 47/26 record points to her skill and preference for the surface. Granville's being playing well over the last week-and-half with her win over the returning-from-injury Molik being her career-best performance. The rusty Molik apart, she has yet to face someone of Tanasugarn's experience so today's match-up will be much harder. I thought the Thai would be shorter in the market and as my program rates her a 61.5% chance of winning, I'll take the perceived value.

Tanasugarn $1.85 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)

[Marco]

A bit of late breaking news:

Tatiana Golovin from France, the 5th seed, also moved into the quarter-finals beating the unseeded Rika Fujiwara of Japan 6-4 6-4, after aggravating her injured right ankle in practice yesterday.

“Today was really tough,” said Golovin. “My right ankle is really bad, plus my foot is sore, so I couldn’t even put my shoe on this morning. Today was just a really painful match.”


I had heard Golovin was struggling via some French news links but this confirms her status. Never an idea to expressly bet against injured players but I certainly wouldn't bet on her.

[Marco]

Bets 185; Won 119; Lost 66
Units Staked: 166.5 units; Won 19.27 units; ROI 11.6%

An up-and-down week as Tanasugarn lost last night. Haven't quite figured out her problem as she drifted in the market and traded as high as $2.35 from her starting price of $1.85. Didn't appear to be any injury concerns so perhaps the bookies and I just got it wrong.

Jankovic v Granville
SF

Granville's on the run of her career but I'll yet again predict her demise. She's played well over the past week-and-a-half and has proven she's comfortable on the surface. So too Jankovic who hasn't looked troubled by any of her opponents. She has a lot less experience than Granville but should be fresher given the American has played 9 games in 11 days. Jankovic has a definite edge in the mental 'gnarliness' department and has a better record in finals appearances.

Jankovic $1.61 @ WillHill 1 Unit
(early line, may be better later)



Sharapova v Golovin
SF

A battle of the beauty queens, both of whom have injury niggles. Sharapova took an injury timeout in the second set yesterday for treatment on her thigh before demolishing Daniilidou 6:1 in the third. Golovin is still battling a foot injury and was pushed all the way by Chakvetadze in yesterday's QF. This is a rematch of last year's final which Sharapova won quite comfortably. She has a lot of points at stake in this tournament and is hanging on to the world number two ranking. A loss here will further reduce her chances of catching Davenport. I rate Sharapova a red hot favourite and will take the short-ish odds.


Sharapova $1.25 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit
(early line, may be better later)

[Marco]

Bets 187; Won 121; Lost 66
Units Staked: 168.5 units; Won 20.13 units; ROI 12%


A better night going 2-0


Sharapova v Jankovic
Final

Sharapova's at short-odds but deservedly so. Yesterday's second set demolition of Golovin - whom I rate a better grass player than Jankovic - show's how much Sharapova enjoys the surface. Jankovic has played well this week and she served particulary well against Granville, but none of her opponents this week were anywhere near Sharapova's class. Interestingly, prior to this week Jankovic had a 4/4 career grass record and she mentioned this in her post match interview: “I didn’t expect to be in the final as I didn’t know how to play on grass very well before this week.” In short, Sharapova should have too much experience and has far more riding on the game in terms of points and WTA rankings.

Sharapova $1.22 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit

[Marco]

Preview

I expect quite a few betting opportunities this week with tournaments at Eastbourne and Hertogenbosch.


Eastbourne is the only Tier 2 tournament on grass so a lot of top players are here as a warm-up to Wimbledon.

Svetlana Kuznetsova is back to defend her title, Mauresmo and Myskina are here to polish their skills - Mauresmo says she wants to work on her net game - and Molik who'll be trying to reverse her disappointing result at Birmingham. Clijsters (who's playing on grass for the first time in 2 years), Zvonareva, Likhovtseva (who took Birmingham off due to fatigue) and Dechy make up the remaining seeds.

Plenty of other top players are here including Jankovic, Ivanovic, Asagoe, Hantuchova (2004 finalist), Sprem and Vaidisova so there will be some good betting opportunities.

Note that Henin-Hardenne isn't playing as doctors have advised her she needs rest. The virus that kept her out for so long last year is still in her system.


Hertogenbosch is the second event this week and while a weaker tournament, there's still a few good players here for a Wimbledon warm-up. The top seeds are Top 10 players Dementieva and Petrova while the likes of Schnyder, Pierce (2004 winner), Safina and a host of clay-courters including Medina-Garrigues, Dulko, Groenefeld and Koukalova (2004 finalist), round out the field.

Below this group are the young up-and-comers like Kirilenko, Safarova and Krajicek who'll be playing her home tournament (though she's here as a wildcard). Then there's the veteran brigade led by none other than Martina Navratilova who just refuses to quit. She's joined by the likes of Shaughnessy, Smashnova and Peschke.

The high ranking clay players may provide a few bets as they're always worth opposing on the faster surfaces. Some of the young guns may also be worth backing against a few of the rusty veterans - most notably Smashnova.


Back Monday.

[Marco]

Bets 188; Won 122; Lost 66
Units Staked: 169.5 units; Won 20.35 units; ROI 12%


Good win for Sharapova last night.

Bookies doing there normal slow Monday price-ups. Not much on offer today as ATP dominates Hertogenbosch and qualies/doubles at Eastbourne.

These are early lines that may well be beaten later but the markets have been all over the place during the grass swing.


Zvonereva v Vaidisova
Round 1 - Eastbourne


Zvonereva will be looking forward to grass after a poor clay swing. She has a 9/4 clay record including a SF here last year and solid performances at Wimbledon in 2004 and 2005. Vaidisova has a good junior record on grass but has only played twice at WTA level for two losses.

Zvonereva $1.55 Pinnacle 1 Unit


Domonikovic v RuanoPascual
Round 1 - Hertogenbosch

Dominikovic has played well over the past week-and-a-half. She was unlucky to lose to Stosur last week and had a couple of good hit outs at Surbiton. Her 21/18 grass record compares favourably to Ruano-Pascual's 9/11 record. The Spaniard is also first-up on grass.

Dominikovic $1.66 Pinnacle 1 Unit
(better at smaller bookies)


Shaughnessy v Smashnova
Round 1 - Hertogenbosch

Shaughnessy is the better grass player and has the advantage of playing last week - albeit for a First Round loss. Her 15/18 record includes a few good performances ia typical for a mid ranked grass player. Smashnova's 5/15 record contains a lot of First Round exits to some fairly ordinary players.

Shaughnessy $1.55 Pinnacle 1 Unit
(better at smaller bookies)


Koukalova v Domachowska
Round 1 - Hertogenbosch

Koukalova's was a SF here last year and has a 6/5 record which includes a couple of good wins. Domachowska likes it fast but has only played two WTA games on grass going 1/1.

Koukalova $1.55 Pinnacle 1 Unit

[Marco]

Bets 192; Won 125; Lost 67
Units Staked: 173.5 units; Won 21.00 units; ROI 12.1%

A good night going 3-1.

The losing bet Dominikovic goes into the black book. It's the second week in a row she's blown a good third set lead.


Cervanova v Krajicek
Round 1 - Hertogenbosch

Cervanova has a 6/9 record on grass, Krajicek has a 0/2 record. Both of Krajicek's losses have been during the First Round at Hertogenbosch where she's only qualified as a wildcard. Her 2003 loss was to Cervanova 6:3 6:1. Why then is Krajicek a $1.38-ish favourite? Sure, Cervanova had a miserable clay swing and lost first-up last week at Birmingham. But at least she was warming-up on grass unlike Krajicek who's first up here. Again, this is Krajicek's home tournament and she does have tremendous potential but is she a 72% ($1.38) chance of winning? The value is definitely with Cervanova though a cautious half unit.

Cervanova $3.27 @ Pinnacle Half Unit


Asagoe v Raymond
Round 1 - Eastbourne

Asagoe let us down last week but she does have a solid grass record which includes good wins over quality players. Raymond is also competent on grass though her best performances were a few years back. However the 31-year old American is on a bit of a slippery slope at the moment having suffered a 6:1 6:0 First Round drubbing at Birmingham last week to lowly-ranked Sequerra. She only made this week as a Lucky Loser having been soundly beaten 6:4 6:0 in her Q3 match-up with Srebotnik. Raymond's no easy beat but Asagoe should be too good today.

Asagoe $1.70 @ Centrebet 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Razzano v Farina-Elia
Round 1 - Eastbourne

Farina-Elia is a competent grass player and probably has the edge in class over her opponent. However Razzano has a good grass record herself going 17/9 and she has the advantage of playing a couple of matches last week at Birmingham while Farina-Elia is first-up on grass. This match will be closer than the odds suggest so there's value with Razzano.

Razzano $2.60 @ Pinnacle Half Unit


Medina-Garrigues v Benesova
Round 1 - Hertogenbosch

Median-Garrigues had a very good clay swing so should be in a positive frame of mind. She hasn't had much experience on grass (3/3 record) but she made the SF's here last year and so must have some ability. Benesova had a poor clay season and has a similar grass record to Garrigues but her last win was in 2002. Garrigues usually puts up a good fight and she has plenty of ranking points to defend here so I expect she'll be rather focused.

Medina-Garrigues $1.50 @ Pinnacle 1 unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Notes: Likhovtseva plays today after withdrawing from Birmingham last week with a thigh strain/fatigue. Maleeva plays todays after withdrawing from Birmingham with a shoulder strain.

[Marco]

Bets 196; Won 127; Lost 69
Units Staked: 176.5 units; Won 20.80 units; ROI 11.8%

A rather average evening going 2-2 for a very small loss. I was certainly wrong about Krajicek who flogged Cervanova and about Raymond who flogged Asagoe.

Short of time today.

Ruano-Pascual v Safarova
Round 2 - Hertogenbosch

My computer program rates Ruano-Pascual a 56.1% chance of winning so I'm taking the perceived value.

Ruano-Pascual $2.30 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Razzano v Molik
Round 2 - Eastbourne


My computer program rates Razzano a 43.4% chance of winning so I'm taking the perceived value. Molik's also still recovering from an ear infection which affects her balance and vision.

Razzano $2.80 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Kirilenko v Safina
Round 2 - Hertogenbosch

My computer program rates Kirilenko a 49.3% chance of winning so I'm taking the perceived value. There's very little between these two on grass.


Kirilenko $2.60 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit


Koukalova v Schaul
Round 2 - Hertogenbosch


My computer program rates Koukalova a 72.9% chance of winning so I'm taking the perceived value. Koukalova SF here last year - Schaul in woeful form

Koukalova $1.42 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit

[Marco]

Bets 199; Won 128; Lost 71
Units Staked: 179.5 units; Won 19.3 units; ROI 10.8%


A very poor night going 1-2 with no excuses. Not such a good week.
Molik withdrew prior to play to void her match with Razzano.

I'm short on time again.


Koukalova v Chladkova
QF - Hertogenbosch

I rate Koukalova a 63.7% chance of winning - Chladkova got through
second round with a walkover and wasn't particularly impressive in
Round 1

Koukalova $1.63 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)

[moeee]

I rate Koukalova a 63.7% chance of winning - Chladkova got through
second round with a walkover and wasn't particularly impressive in
Round 1

Koukalova $1.63 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)
Pretty skinny overs there Marko.
Suggest you watch and enjoy the game.

[moeee]

Round 2 - Eastbourne


My computer program rates Razzano a 43.4% chance of winning so I'm taking the perceived value. Molik's also still recovering from an ear infection which affects her balance and vision.

Razzano $2.80 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)



Nice overs here!
Did it get up?
Excellent effort if so!

Just realized the even better overs the Krilenko bet.
Did that one get up?

[waynet]

I have a yahoo email address for you. Is this still valid, as I have emails from March & April from you? A couple of overall, not specific WTA queries, that I would like mention to you. Hence they are not really for this forum.

[Marco]

Moeeee - thanks for your thoughts during an ordinary week. Kirilenko lost and Razzano v Molik was void (see earlier post).

The bet on Koukalova was a personal call. The value was rather slim but background info not included in the model swayed my decision.

Waynet - apologies, I hadn't checked the email for a while. It's my secondary address to avoid spam etc. Fire away, I'll get back to you as soon as I can.

My email's woof9898@yahoo.com.au if anybody else has querys.

Thanks.

[Marco]

Bets 200; Won 129; Lost 71
Units Staked: 180.5 units; Won 19.93 units; ROI 11%

Koukalova managed a fairly comfortable win last night.


Koukalova v Shaughnessy
SF Hertogenbosch.

Not for the faint-hearted as this should be close. Shaughnessy's been lucky to progress as two of her three opponents have retired so hard to judge her current form. Prior to this tournament she'd only won consecutive games on two occasions this season so she's had a fairly ordianary year. However Meghann's a decent grass player with a good volley and plenty of experience. Koukalova has the game to win and is very respectable on grass. She's played well this week against reasonable opponents and has shown considerable determination. Having played more matches this week, I rate her a 63.1% chance of winning.

Koukalova $1.69 @ Pinnacle Half Unit

[moeee]

Having played more matches this week, I rate her a 63.1% chance of winning.

Koukalova $1.69 @ Pinnacle Half Unit
Marco,I understand that you are miles in front,and I'm miles behind.
But $1.69 is 59.2%,so doesn't seem worth betting on.Only a 4% increase.Am I doing something wrong here?

[Sportz]

Well, she won, and I guess that's what matters.

[Marco]

Moeee - Your point/concern on the size of the overlay is a good one. In short, I have a sample of about 3200 bets with the perceived overlay (this needs more explanation but will suffice for now). I break these overlays into groups for analytical purposes; 0-5%, 5-10%, 10-15% etc etc. The 0-5% group has returned a long term profit so I don't mind the 'skinny' value. I appreciate my sample is rather small but there doesn't appear to be too much variation (I have more than 40000 matches in my database but only have odds for about 3200). Funnily enough the lowest return comes at the higher 40% plus overlays (I could speculate why but there's not enough space).

Thanks for the question.

[Marco]

Bets 201; Won 130; Lost 71
Units Staked: 181 units; Won 20.23 units; ROI 11.2%

Koukalova managed another good win. Her price came in so to keep things fair, I'll record her as $1.60 rather than the $1.69 (half unit).

No bets tonight. Clijsters should win but her odds are too short. No value in the outsider as the bookies margins too tight.

Koukalova v Safarova prices are spot on for mine. Hard to split these two but Koukalova deserves to be a very slight favourite.

[Marco]

Picking the winner at Wimbly this year look's like a tough proposition.

In no particular order we have:

Defending Champ Maria Sharapova who has won 2 of the 5 biggest tournaments over the past year. She's also on a 17 match grass winning streak but at the same time has won only one low-ranked title (Birmingham) since thumped by Davenport at Indian Wells.

Davenport, while ranked No. 1 and a past Champion (1999), hasn't won a major title in the past year and hasn't played any grass warm-ups. In fact, she's played very few tournaments since the end of the hardcourt swing.

Then there's Serena Williams whose Wimbly record stands at 20-1 over the past 3 years. However she's only played one match - a first round loss in Rome - since hurting her ankle during the American green clay swing.

Next is Henin-Hardenne who hasn't lost a game since the end of the Hardcourt season. However she's never won Wimbledon in 4 attempts, she hasn't played any grass warm-ups and recently withdrew from Eastbourne on the advice of her doctors. Apparently the virus that kept her out of tennis for so long is still lingering in her system and she was in need of rest (though I've learnt punters oppose Justine at their peril)

Then there's Clijster's who's just won Eastbourne and made the semi's at Wimbledon at her last attempt (though she doesn't have a great history at the tournament). Then there's Mauresmo who just lost in the first round of Eastbourne having said she was there to work hard on her grass game, and the likes of Kuznetsova, Venus Williams (2 times Champion plus 2 times finalist) and the 'nervy' Petrova who all have some claims.

From a betting point of view this looks wide open with some great opportunities against underdone players such as Davenport, the Williams sisters and to some extent Hardenne who are all first-up on grass. The upsets will come - it's just a matter of picking when.

Clijster's and Sharapova are the pick of the bunch at the moment but I don't say that with any real conviction. Plus Clijster's is always mentally vulnerable if she comes up against Henin-Hardenne or Serena (which may happen in semi's).

Notable retirements in matches leading up to Wimbledon include:
Dementieva (retired Eastbourne: Shoulder)
Bartoli (retired Eastbourne: Left foot)
Groenefeld (retired Eastbourne: Thigh)


Some background info can be found at:


http://www.wtatour.com/newsroom/stories/NewsArticle_7394_rx.asp (preview)

http://www.wimbledon.org/en_GB/news/articles/2005-06-16/200506161118907456644.html (preview)

http://www.tennisreporters.net/sub_clijsters_061805.html (interesting article on Clijsters)

http://msn.foxsports.com/tennis/story/3695184 (interesting article on Williamses)

[Marco]

Wimbledon Round 1

It will pay to shop around as there's quite a bit of variation in prices.

I'll split the First Round into Monday & Tuesday (two seperate posts). There's a lot of games so I'll only hi-light the main points.


MONDAY

Kremer v Spears

Kremer 35/22 on grass - her best surface. Shes in average form but has many appearances at Wimbledon. Spears is also in average form, is 3/6 on grass and has only one other appearance at Wimbledon.

Kremer $1.65 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Obata v Irvin

Obata is 24/19 on grass, has played 4 warm-ups prior to Wimbly and came through Qualies in straight sets. Irvin is 4/10 on grass with 5 previous Round 1 exits at Wimbly. She's also first-up on grass today.

Obata $1.60 @ Will Hill 1 Unit
(and smaller bookies)


Tanasugarn v Sprem

A close match on paper. Tanasugarn 51/28 on grass with 6 fourth round appearances at Wimbly. She's had reasonable lead up form going 5/3 but can be a bit 'up-and-down'. Sprem is 6/4 on grass, has terrible lead up form (one game for a loss) and has many off-court problems which have seen her put in some woeful performances lately.

Tanasugarn $2.10 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit.


Morigami v Mirza

Morigami more experienced on grass with 17/14 record and 3 prior Wimbly appearances. Mirza 1/2 on grass (these games all in past 2 weeks) and has no prior Wimbly appearances. Morigami has slightly better lead up form.

Morigami $2.00 @ Ladbrokes Half Unit
(price also available at a few other bookies)



Washington Frazer

The veteran Frazer has plenty of experience and a better record (22/18). Deserves to be favourite but Washington has very good lead up form and is a good outside chance. Her 15/11 record is respectable.

Washington $2.60 @ Will Hill Half Unit
(price also available at a few other bookies)



Chakvetadze v Jankovic

Neither girl has much experience on grass and both have similar lead up form on grass. Chakvetadze has recent wins over Asagoe, Maleeva and Brandi and is 7/2 over past 2 weeks. Jankovic is 5/2 over past 2 weeks and made final of Birmingham. Should be close - value with outsider.

Chakvetadze $2.48 @ 5Dimes Half Unit


Osterloh v Strycova

Lesser known players but Osterloh is 21/21 on grass with 8 Wimbly appearances (best result = 4th Round). Osterloh's only had 1 warm-up game - a loss. Strycova is a clay specialist - likes it slow - and is first-up on grass. Is 3/3 on grass and her two Wimbly appearances resulted in First Round exits.

Osterloh $2.10 5Dimes Half Unit
(price also available at a few other bookies)

[Marco]

A couple of fun/interesting links for outright markets:


http://news.bbc.co.uk/sol/shared/spl/hi/tennis/05/predictor/html/predictor_mens.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sol/shared/spl/hi/tennis/05/predictor/html/predictor_womens.stm

[Sportz]

That John Alexander's a wacko. Can you believe that he actuallt said Samantha Stosur could win Wimbledon??? Seriously, what was he on? I notice, she's just lost in the first round.

[Marco]

A rather ordinary start to Wimbly going 3-4 for the tiniest of gains. Obata losing ruined my chance of a good day.

TUESDAY

Ivanovic v Douchevina
Round 1

Douchevina 9/4 on grass afetr reaching last weeks Eastbourne final. Ivanovic is 0/1 and is first-up on grass. Douchevina can be a bit up-and-down but strange prices - Ivanovic's Junior grass form is nothing special.

Douchevina $2.15 generally available 1 Unit



Brandi v Schiavone
Round 1

Brandi won Surbiton Challenger in warm-ups though her later for was mixed. Solid 40/21 grass record. Schiavone is first-up on grass and while she has a reasonable Wimbledon record, she is only 8/10 on grass.

Brandi $1.83 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit



Hantuchova v Linetskya
Round 1

Hantuchova's not in the best from at the moment having suffered a couple of
unexpected warm-up losses but grass is her best surface. Her 22/14 record includes wins over some quality players while her Wimbledon record is respectable. Linetskya yet another Russian up-and-comer with good credentials but value is with Hantuchova.

Hantuchova $1.71 @ Pinnacle Half unit


Tu v Peer
Round 1

Tu had the better warm-up with 4 good games at Birmingham and is 16/15 on grass. Peer had one warm-up for one loss which is her only WTA appearance on grass. She's a good hardcourt player so may have claims but not as favourite.


Tu $2.20 @ Will Hill Half Unit


Foretz v Chladkova
Round 1

Not much between these two. Foretz underrated - she's 16/12 on grass but hasn't played partcularly well at Wimbly in past. Has quite good lead up form from Birmingham. Chladkova 12/16 on grass with similar Wimbly record to Foretz. Her lead up form mixed. Fairly even match - value with outsider.

Foretz $2.10 Ladbrokes Half Unit


Fujiwara v Bartoli
Round 1
Bartoli, who's been struggling all year with injury, retired yet again at Eastbourne 5 days ago. She's a moderate 7/8 on grass and has very mixed lead up form. Fujiwara has a 21/10 record though there's not mant top players in her wins. She had a solid 5 game warm-up in Birmingham and lists grass a sher favourite surface.

Fujiwara $2.71 @ Pinnacle Half Unit


Poutchek v Santangelo
Round 1

Battle of the no-hopers. Both girls coming of clay with Poutchek having slightly better form. Both girls also came through Qualies with Poutchek having slightly better results. Santangelo is 1/5 on grass prior to Wimbly while Poutchek is 3/6.
A slight edge to Poutchek so I'll take outside value.

Poutchek $2.40 @ Pinnacle Half Unit.
(better prices at smaller bookies)

[Marco]

Away from Perth, on the laptop, have to be brief.

Another ordinary day giving me a small .7 unit loss over Round 1.


Tanasugarn v Perry
Round 2

Tanasugarn $1.36 @ SportingOdds 1 Unit


Washington v Sfar
Round 2

Washington $1.31 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit


Safina v Strycova
Round 2

Safina $1.30 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit


Arvidsson v Serra-Zanetti
Round 2

Arvidsson $1.50 @ Pinnacle Half Unit.


Vinci v Kremer
Round 2

Vinci $1.50 generally available Half Unit

[Marco]

Poor day yesterday losing .7 units. Still away from
Perth with limited internet so have to be brief.


Martinez v Brandi
Round 2

Martinez $1.61 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit


Hantuchova v Peer
Round 2

Hantuchova $1.45 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit


Pennetta v Dulko
Round 2

Pennetta $2.60 @ Pinnacle Half Unit


Panova v Bondarenko
Round 2

Panova $2.10 @ Ladbrokes. Half Unit


Granville v Daniilidou
Round 2

Granville $2.83 @ Pinnacle Half Unit

Srebotnik v Cho
Round 2

Srebotnik $1.59 @ Pinnacle Half Unit


Foretz v Ivanovic
Round 2

Foretz $8.51 @ Pinnacle Half Unit

[rabbitz]

What price Jill Craybas to knock off Serena Williams Round 3(shes plagued with ankle injuries)

[Marco]

A better day picking up 0.94 units. About half a unit down for the tournament.
(Apologies for brief write-ups - still out 'bush')

Jankovic v Myskina
Round 3

Jankovic $1.67 @ generally available 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Maleeva v Serra-Zanetti
Round3

Maleeva $1.30 @ Interwetten 1 Unit


Kuznetsova v Vaidisova
Round 3

Kuznetsova $1.25 @ generally available 1 Unit

[Marco]

Rabbitz - short of time so quickly: You make a very good point. Serena won't win Wimbly and she is struggling. Craybas would have to play the game of her life or Serena retire - both possible but the latter more likely. The only way to get value is to lay Serena on Betfair - prices around $1.07 (there's a lot of people doing same thing).

[Floydyboy]

Iwatched 10 mins of Venus the other day and she actually looked interested ....if either of them (injury free ) put their mind on the job theyre both capable of winnin this tourney but thats not possible so I say if shes interested watch out for Venus...........

[rabbitz]

Rabbitz - short of time so quickly: You make a very good point. Serena won't win Wimbly and she is struggling. Craybas would have to play the game of her life or Serena retire - both possible but the latter more likely. The only way to get value is to lay Serena on Betfair - prices around $1.07 (there's a lot of people doing same thing).

i wouldnt want to lay serena,yuck
but i would lay sharapova
do bets stand if a player retires ore are all bets refunded
cheers

[Floydyboy]

depends who you bet with check first......... betfair has a 1 set rule 1 set must be completed Centerbet(Sportodds ) the match must be completed

[Marco]

You know you're having a bad week when Jankovic leads 5-1 in the third set but goes on to lose.

A .5 unit loss for the day and a unit down for the week.

V Williams v Hantuchova
Round 4

V Williams $1.27 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit

Martinez v Peschke
Round 4

Martinez $1.45 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit


Daniilidou v Pennetta
Round 4

Daniilidou $1.45 @ SportingOdds 1 Unit

[Marco]

Rabbitz - the following link might help you out with bookmaker rules for tennis.


http://www.oddsandbets.com/bookmaker_rules_tennis.html


Floydy - Venus certainly has claims - will be an interesting match v Serena. Will also have to face Sharapova and maybe Clijster's to win. A tough call.

[Floydyboy]

yeah didnt say it wouldnt be tough lol just not beyond the realms of possibility

Now this is strictly from the guts but at the beginning when i saw the draw i had the feelin that Whoopi might beat Smokin Joe ..but as I said it just a feelin I got

[Chuck]

Round 3 bet:

Safina ($5.65) over Davenport

[Floydyboy]

If I was a gamblin man Id be tempted to have a crack at a
Daniilidou/Martinez double @1.92

[Floydyboy]

well that was great result

[Floydyboy]

0-2 thats talent ...Sorry for clogging up your thread with s*** Marco I checked the form and they looked like the likely results so I thought I display some of my tipping prowess ...my apologies again

[rabbitz]

What price Jill Craybas to knock off Serena Williams Round 3(shes plagued with ankle injuries)

Hows $6.10 on UNITAB,woo hoo

[Floydyboy]

Nice Divi Rabs...... woo hooo indeed

[Marco]

On a bit of a poor run at the moment. A loss of 1.73 units yesterday. Sorry about the lack of match info - will be back in Perth and back to normal posts in a day or two.


Clijsters v Davenport
Round 4

Clijsters $1.70 @ Pinnacle 1 unit

Rabbitz - nice call, well done. Have you considered a Betfair account? Laying Serena would have returned around $12.00 yesterday.

[rabbitz]

THe bookies are laughing again
Why was clijsters favourite and a firming one at that
Davenport looked vulnerable when she lost the second set but then regrouped and WHAM,Game set match
Cheers

[Floydyboy]

I said earlier in this thread that I thought Venus (providing her mind was on the job) had a chance in this tourney ...Well Ill take that back partially because I watched a bit more of her the other day and as usual the unforced errors were flowing like champagne and mostly because I think Pierce injury free (apparently ) and in her current form might just chew her up and spit her out . I know I went 0-2 the other night tipping .(I didnt back them)
Ive been backing favourites only lately and its been working well for me so should stick to the winning formula .....But Ive just seen 2.98 at betfair and Im thinking this might just be a good way to end a months punting .....
Im very open to any comment positive or negative

[Marco]

Bets 234; Won 144; Lost 90
Units Staked: 206.5 units; Won 15.96 units; ROI 7.7%


The poor run continues with Clijsters losing. I don't think there'll be too many more Wimbledon bets - I'll wait for the 'sanity' of the hardcourt season.

The 7.7% represents a solid 'losing streak' but these are inevitable. Though very disappointing, it's certainly not my worst and won't be the last (but winning streaks will also occur).

My strike rate is also very poor at the moment.

Moreover, this also represents my worst Grand Slam iresult in my 18 month history so I'll have to improve my grass game (might be my poor volley?!)

No excuses though.

[Floydyboy]

Besides My normal win bet on Pierce I invested another $20 on her
Pierce to win the Title
$12.32- TO WIN $500(net of commission)
Pierce to win 2-0
$7.68(the remainderof$20)TO WIN $36.48

[Floydyboy]

In saying all that Ive been well wrong before today :)

[punter57]

Good afternoon everyone. Davenport was obviously the best bet of last night. To win long-term you need to ignore the bookies, and think about "class" The result was not "insane" and if you truly are hoping for "sanity" on the hardcourts you may be disappointed Marco. Davenport is World number 1 and top seed. She has won three majors and was in the final in Melbourne only this year. At Wimbledon she has been champion, runner-up, twice semi-finalist and three times in the Quarters (first time 11 years ago!!!!!). Clijsters has NEVER won a major and only once made it into the last 4 at Wimbledon PLUS she has been injured for most of the past year and is carrying plenty of "emotional baggage". Seen like this there would be no way you could have her favourite over Davenport IN A MAJOR.
Until proven otherwise, players (just like racehorses) who perennially underperform, are to be avoided on ALL surfaces. I know this is WTA territory, but likewise, one-dimensional second stringers like Ancic,Karlovic etc etc are not to be trusted with OUR money. Sticking with class really does pay. Cheers and good luck.

[Floydyboy]

There ya go well wrong again.
Didnt stay up to watch venus and mary but a quick look at the stats tells me why I did my dosh ...Venus 84% of first serves in thats hard to get on top of ........... and 14 only unforced errors ..about half her usual rate .....ah well back to the drawing board

[Marco]

Punter57 - thanks for your post.

Some people may disagree with me, but I found your post a tad amusing. I posted my bet some 36 hours before the game so I'm just wondering why you didn't post your very welcome opinion prior to the game being played. It certainly would have been helpful.

Perhaps you do most of your betting at Hindsight.com (tongue in cheek).

As I said, all opinions are valid but they're not much use to anybody and achieve very little if the race has already been run. We live in a democracy so you can do as you want but feel free to list pre-post selections as I'm sure we can all benefit from your skills.

Have you looked at the SFs? What percentage chance/odds do you give Davenport over Mauresmo? Or Sharapova v Williams? Any thoughts on who, at this stage, is going to win outright and what odds are reasonable?

If you would like me to post the method/statistical reasoning that underlies my betting on the Clijster's match I'll be more than happy to do so. As it involves a fair bit of detail it might be easier to do this off the thread. Feel free to email me (woof9898@yahoo.com.au).

On the day I was wrong and you were right. As I said I have no excuses.

Thanks once again.

[sparkus8]

Don't worry Marco, you weren't the only one that was a tad amused ;)

[punter57]

Hello everyone. It's heartening that even when losing money you can STILL be amused. I don't bet (often) nor give advice on individual women's matches, but will have a bet if I think the bookies have it wrong. By this I don't mean having Davenport at $1.35 when she should be $1.25 against Mauresmo but waiting until they actually have it the wrong way round.
Since I agree with the bookies on the two women's semis there will be no bets. If Davenport comes up as underdog for the final then she MAY be a bet.
Marco, I feel like I've lead you to the water and now you want me to tell you WHEN to drink as well. Let's go back to my (hilarious) comments about underperformers ( a few posts earlier) and ask a bystander, Floydyboy, how he feels, knowing that Pierce is exactly the type of choker/ gonna-be I was talking about (to be avoided).
When I was but a student and needed to learn THE PRINCIPLES of my profession, I read and listened until I got it right. Subsequently I do not need to ring my old tutors/profs to get them to tell me EXACTLY what I should do or what THEY would do on every individual project or in every single instance, as I'm sure they would NOT be amused!!!. Would you Sparkus8 or Marco???
Anyway, talk to you again soon(see ATP thread). Good luck regardless, and glad to have brought some humour your way.P57

[sparkus8]

Mate I congratulate you on being able to put that much garbage into such a confined space.

This is a place to discuss and share tips, not somewhere you come in hours after the fact saying 'well she was obviously the best bet'. If you have something to contribute do it before the match please, otherwise start your own thread for your rantings.

Cheers,

Sparks

[karla909]

Well said Sparkus


Dear Professor57
Having been to college, my tutors and profs were qualified and proven individuals who presented what they wanted us to learn or showed us the direction. So far your qualifications are:


“I don't bet”
<O:ppicks 0 = wins 0
before match advice = nothing
betting history = nothing
methodology of picking winners = counterproductive, obstruent, retardative, after the fact ramblings about class and vollying ability
Your qualifications are therefore somewhere between 0 and nothing.


Marco is kindly giving his time to present a forum on a sport that has very rarely been tackled in a professional manner. He has made it perfectly clear to us that the expectation rate of his picks is to be close to 10%. As anyone who bets professionally knows, you have good weeks and bad weeks. Where were you when he went 4 from 5 at Indian Wells, 5/5 at Warsaw, 4/4 at Strasbourg etc etc.

Marco makes his living on his picks. You should stick to your day job.

The world and these forums do not need negative bigots. Take the advice given and start your own thread. Hindsight.com sounds like a very good place for you.


Karla

[punter57]

Good morning all. Well K909,gad to see you're as feisty as ever.And you too Sparkus8
I did say the women were not my favoured bets BUT if you recall our little run-in about a month ago.(On ATP thread) you might recall my succinct comment that, while all and sundry were proposing Karlovic,Ancic,Schrichipan,the other Johansson,Stepanek etc etc as "the dangers" I said. "The winners at Wimbledon will be the same players IN GENERAL who also win at Flushing meadows and in Melbourne" This was post 241 (page 10) on that thread.
In the women we now have the "surprise" 2time U.S./Wimbledon winner in the final and probably(??) the other non-French Open multi-winner. In the men there were only 5 starters who have won the U.S. or Australian and guess what???? Safin got nervous but T. Johansson DIDN'T!!!! Neither did Federer(1 U.S., 1 Australian) or Roddick (1 U.S.) or Hewitt (1 U.S.). All the gonna bes and will bes and should bes are lying by the roadside and you are telling ME I didn't let you know early enough!!!! Good one! I'm sure you'll be gracious enough to admit that you SHOULD have followed that early advice,lads. Perhaps you'll give it some thought next June when you all start reminding us that Wimbledon is for "specialists". Or maybe you'll pick up something from the "Professor" and dodge the second-raters and no hopers.
Finally; to win in the long term punting on "two-horse" races you have to avoid the losers. So, I expected Sharapova to win BUT wouldn't bet her because she was fav. Thus a losing bet is avoided. Likewise if Davenport wins I'll have avoided another OR when she does win I'll STILL be ahead by passing on the Russian!! Got it yet? Too many bats is fatal!!! Regardless; successful punting to you all.

[Marco]

I received a few emails during my week off with some suggestions so I'll make a couple of changes. I'll start using fractional Kelly betting for my staking with the maximum bet being 2 units (with fractions thereof). This is the method I personally use and its shown greater returns than the flat bets used on this thread.

For anyone who doesn't understand Kelly betting just "Google" the phrase.

I'll also introduce outrights but will use an all-up method. That is, if I think Williams will win, I'll bet on her in the First Round (or whatever Round I think best) at match odds and roll over the winnings in each round. Betting this way means you can reassess the player each round and 'stop' the bet at any point rather than being locked in as with the outright. You can sometimes get superior odds this way but the opposite is also true. You tend to get lower odds backing round by round when favourites get knocked out. The max. initial stake for outrights will also be 2 units but the "rolled over" or reinvested stake may obviously be more than this figure.

I'll also do weekly updates rather than daily updates on ROI etc as this seemed to be the consensus opinion.

Hope all that makes sense.

[Marco]

The WTA is back after a week off for The Fed Cup - yahoo!

http://www.wtamodena.com/2005/

We're back on clay for a brief spell at the low ranking (Tier IV) Modena Open in Italy. An average field with limited betting opportunities. However there's good live-scoring for such a small tourney.

The bookies will probably be slow this week as per usual.


Ondraskova V Cervanova
Round 1

Ondraskova recently won the Zagreb clay challenger against a field of similar quality opponents to Cervanova. Prior to Zagreb she made the final of the Prague clay tournament where she lost a close match to Safina. Cervanova is a patchy player who's been in terrible form lately losing 5 of her last 6 games. She favours clay courts but will need to be at her best to win.

Ondraskova $1.43 @ Centrebet 1.2 units
(better prices at smaller bookies and may be better when Pinnacle/5Dimes list)

Loit v Bondarenko
Round 1

A small bet on Loit who is the better player but is known to put in the occassional poor game. Loit played the Marseille clay challenger as a warm up while Bondarenko is coming straight of grass.

Loit $1.60 @ Centrebet 0.2 units

[Marco]

A couple of good wins last night with both players available at better prices.


Sanchez Lorenzo v Sucha
Round 1

Sucha's on a 7 game losing streak dating back to April and while Sanchez Lorenzo's results have been mixed, she favours clay courts as evidenced by a recent win over Myskina. The Spaniard has better form and a better game on the dirt.

Sanchez Lorenzo $1.63 @ Pinnacle 0.5 units


Garbin v Cohen-Aloro
Round 1

Should be close but a slight edge to Garbin who recently made the final of the Prostejov clay challenger. This is also a 'home' tournament for the popular Italian. Cohen Aloro can win but she prefers it faster and has floundered a bit on clay this season.

Garbin $1.78 @ Pinnacle 0.9 units



Vesnina v Matevzic
Round 1

Matevzic is on the comeback from an 18-month injury layoff. She's only played a handful of games since her return in May and hasn't been in good form. Vesnina is no superstar but came through qualies with a good win over Savchuk and has played a few clay challengers recently.

Vesnina $2.18 @ Pinnacle 0.7 units


Pastikova v Parra-Santonja
Round 1

Very hard to split these two so a bet on price. Pastikova has been on the clay challenger circuit while Santonja comes straight off grass. Both clay courters with similar records.

Pastikova $2.46 @ Pinnacle 0.4 units

[karla909]

Vesnina is no superstar

Wow - somebody thinks she is Marco.

Now $1.50 at Pinnacle and $1.40 elsewhere.

[Marco]

Pure Madness!

This is only the third time Vesnina's made the main draw of a WTA tournament (plus she only has one main draw win against wildcard Buyucackay in Istanbul).

The betting graphs at Betfair are interesting! (ie: click on players name). A very quick turnaround in price - wouldn't be surprised if there was a bit of inside injury knowledge at work.

If Vesnina wins I won't record the profit as I doubt many were quick enough to get the price (though I'm happy to record the loss if she loses).

Meanwhile, I'm off to arbitrage a very healthy position.

[Marco]

Two wins and two losses last night though to be fair and keep everyone happy I won't record Vesnina's win as her price unexpectedly collapsed.


Ondraskova V Szavay
Round 2

A follow on from yesterday the in-form Ondraskova (see yesterday's post) meets 16-year-old Szavay (ranked 301). Szavay likes clay but her 33/11 record has few games at this level. Most of her wins have come in Qualifiers or low-ranked Challengers. Yesterday was only her second WTA main draw win. Of course she can win today but the value is with Ondraskova who is a respectable 80/42 on clay.

Ondraskova $1.66 @ Pinnacle 1.3 units.

Smashnova v Parra Santonja
Round 2

Smashnova is the better player but she's known to play like a "fruit loop" at times. Both girls like the dirt but Smashnova's 112/64 record shades Santonja's 64/41 record in quality and quantity. A smallish bet on a small overlay.

Smashnova $1.38 @ Pinnacle 0.3 units.

[Floydyboy]

Im not taking the p*** but what happened with Ondraskova ....After reading your write up I went and had a look at the form and thought that Ondraskova maybe should have been shorter than she was .....Fortunately for me I couldnt back her because I was still waiting for a result of my Vanek bet in rimini (Im betting all up till I reach $3< in divs) and I knew buggerall about what was going on there so I had to pass backing any of the girls ...the youngn give her a bit of touch up according to the scores