Mugs Footy Betting '05

[mug punta]

As I said a couple of months ago Im starting with a bank of 2k and im going to bet between 10-20% of my pot each week and see how I go.
This will make me track all my bets and hopefully have less bad ones.
I will be also plcing futures bets as I go along so let the fun begin.
Any gambler who has advice is welcome to add contributions on this forum, but, I'm really using this to honestly see if I make profit for the footy season.
I'll put up my first bets sometime today or tommorow.

[Sportz]

How about joining in our Punters Comp? It's a sticky thread at the top of this forum.

[mug punta]

Thanks mate but I really just want to concentrate on this.
I found that witht the spring carnival one I was sometimes being rushed and missed my selections, which set me back.
I'm no mathmetician like most guys in this forum but I reckon I know my AFL as well as anyone so I'll have a dip here.
I'll probly do some stupid things from time to time and any advice by smart punters will be appreciated about how I can maximise my returns.
I dont have any problem with being judged and im prepared to put all my bets up before each game that im betting on.
I hope it turns me into a better punter.

[Sportz]

Okay. Sure thing. Good luck tipping winners. :)

[mug punta]

OPENING BALANCE $2000

26-2-05- WEST COAST TO WIN BY 19.5PTS@$1.90 FOR $100
WEST COAST TO WIN BY 40+@$2.80 FOR $100

cLOSING BALANCE - $1800

[Sportz]

Well done mug punta.

[mug punta]

Thanks Sportz. Long road ahead yet,though

West Coast -19.5 Collect
West Coast -39.5 Collect

CLOSING BALANCE- $2270

[moeee]

I wish I knew how he knew,then I could win some money too!

Well done Mugsy!

[mug punta]

Opening Balance $2270

Really not confident on these 2 matches so only 1 bet this weekend

Kangaroos +17.5
Carlton - 11.5
Invested $100
Odds @ $3.55

Closing Balance $2170

[moeee]

Good Luck Mugsy.
West Coast scare me a bit.
Got a huge feeling that if they win,they will win by the length of the Subiaco straight.
So I would say Kangaroos straight out or not at all.
Carlton looks good.

[Betsy]

Mug are you mirroring these bets with real money? If so, why are you betting just for the sake of it? If you arent completely confident - DONT BET

[Sportz]

West Coast scare me a bit.
Got a huge feeling that if they win,they will win by the length of the Subiaco straight.


You got that right!

[mug punta]

Oh well. You can't win 'em all. Betsy, if I only bet when I was completely confident I'd never have a bet at all.
I bet because i enjoy it and if I win thats all the better.
If i lose 2k for the footy season that's not going to affect my lifestyle at all. Having said that obviously my aim is to win for the year.
I have learnt a valuable lesson though and that is North like my own Bombers have little leg speed and on the big grounds against fast teams they will continue to be found out.

[mug punta]

Opening Balance $2170

Carlton HT/FT Double@ $1.85 for $150

Closing Balance $2020.
GO BLUES. It disgusts me to even say that

[mug punta]

HT/FT DOUBLE - CARLTON/CARLTON Collect

$150 @ $1.85

closing balance $ 2297.50

[moeee]

closing balance $ 2297.50

The proof is in this pudding as well!
GO MUGSY.

[mug punta]

Opening Balance $2297

I cheated a bit this time because I threw in two union games to beef up my dividend. I wont be doing that from the first round of the real stuff

Carlton to win
Auckland Blues to win
Crusaders to win
Dividend $3.32 for $150

Closing Balance $2147

[moeee]

I cheated a bit this time because I threw in two union games to beef up my dividend. I wont be doing that from the first round of the real stuff

Carlton to win
Auckland Blues to win
Crusaders to win
Dividend $3.32 for $150


$3.32!
If Carlton are $2.35 straight out,those other 2 selections must be bloody short!

[mug punta]

They were both very short, not, that it did me any good. The Auckland Blues lost!!

[Sportz]

Bad luck MP. You weren't the only one to be burnt by Auckland. Just stick to AFL. You seem to be pretty damn good at that. :)

[moeee]

I cheated a bit this time because I threw in two union games to beef up my dividend. I wont be doing that from the first round of the real stuff


Didn't mummy tell you that cheats never prosper?

Stiff Mugsy!
Did you take those shorties because they were short or do you know a little bit about the other codes as well?

[mug punta]

Serves me right Mo, for being a greedy bugger
Yeah, I know that the Crusaders and Blues are 2 of the so called best teams in Union.They played off in the granny 2 years ago and the crusaders romped in their match but the Blues got knocked over. That's the beauty of sport, mate and why bookies love multi punters.

[mug punta]

Opening Balance $2147

Saints to beat Bris by over 1.5 points @$1.95 for $150
Saints to win 1-39 @$2.5 for $100

Closing Balance $1897

[moeee]

Opening Balance $2147

Saints to beat Bris by over 1.5 points @$1.95 for $150
Saints to win 1-39 @$2.5 for $100

Closing Balance $1897

Caught up in the tide Mugsy?
Thought you were more rational than that!

Mo's tip! - St.Kilda - out in the 1st round of the finals!

[mug punta]

Easy to spruik after the event Mo. I reckon the saints we're pretty good actually. I reckon if Riewoldt hadn't of gone off it may well have been a different story. Big momentum swing at that stage, but, all credit to the Lions. They were getting smashed in the middle at that stage and turned it around through sheer will power.

[moeee]

Easy to spruik after the event Mo.

Certainly is Mugsy,that's why I wouldn't do that to ya!
Check the posting time - 7:23 pm
Game started Well after 8:30

[mug punta]

Fair enuf. Good on ya mate. The clock on my posts always put the wrong times!! Don't know how you fix that?
I havent had another bet yet this round but I reckon the Cats, and the Eagles are the two likely bets. On paper they like much better than there opposition for mine.
Lesson # 1- DONT bet to big in the early rounds of the year. To much is still unknown. Both Brissie and the saints were very hard and intense but gee both sides made some horrible skill errors!

[moeee]

Lesson # 1- DONT bet to big in the early rounds of the year. To much is still unknown.

And regarding the Cats and the Eagles,refer Lesson #1.

But regarding the Cats.It's not so much they are too good,but their opposition is just so bad!

[mug punta]

Have been out all day but had 2 bets on the footy today.
Treble- Kangaroos, Cats and Eagles for $100 @ $5.34.

And $150 at half time on the Roos @ $1.88. Can't believe they were that price after Livingston went off injured.
Also, had a tab footy bet double on Nth 1-36,Melb 1-36 but that is seperate of this forum that im betting on.

Closing Balance- $1929.

[moeee]

Easy to spruik after the event Mo.
Easy to spruik after the event Mugs!

Pretty good punting considering you backed Carlton previously.Like me.But I stayed out this time.

[mug punta]

OOOOHHH!! Harsh but fair!! I will always be honest on this forum because im only cheating myself otherwise. I just thought the Blues were ripe for the picking. Laidley and his staff have been thinking about this game for 3 weeks. Pagan and the Blues have been trying to win a preseason cup.
Also, I don't think there is much between North and Carlton and $2.40 was overs as far as im concerned. It still doesn't mean i'll collect, I still need the cats and weagles to get up and the West Coast's record at AAMI is deplorable.

[moeee]

Looks to me like you are up at least $32 regardless of the results!
Anyway I'm off to take a few doubles and quaddies meself.
Good Luck.

[mug punta]

OB- $1929

SWANS 40+
CATS 40+
ODDS $6.70 FOR $50.

CB- $1879

[mug punta]

Both the double and treble got up!!
Great weekend.
Closing Balance- $2748

[mug punta]

Up north to the sun of Byron Bay for my end of season cricket trip so only 1 bet this weekend.
ALL UP

WEST COAST to win
MELB to win
SAINTS to win and
SWANS to win for $200 at odds of $5.62

CLOSING BALANCE $2548.

Good luck to all punters this weekend

[moeee]

WEST COAST to win
SAINTS to win



Me guts tells me there ain't 2 winners here.
Enjoy the sun anyway!

[moeee]

I think I'll have to get back on the quickeze.
Must have been a mild case of indigestion.
Well done son.
Although still reckon the saints are still being somewhat overrated.

[mug punta]

Byron is the best place for a holiday ever. I have the sorest neck from perving on honeys from the world over.

OB- $2548

Saints to win
Blues to win
Bombers to win
Odds @ $3.22 for $200

Saints to win by 12+
Blues to win by 17+
Eagles to win by 7+
Lenny Hayes to have more p's than Banger Harvey

Odds @ $12.40 for $50

Closing Balance $2298

[moeee]

Obviously you spent a bit too much time in the sun and it has affected your reckoning prowess!
But obviously it was worth every cent.

[mug punta]

Right on both counts mate. But we fight on

ob- $2298

Bris to win
Eagles to win
Dons to win
Power to win for $200 at odds of $4.7

cb= $2098

[moeee]

Mugsy,I understand it's only a guide for punters,but I think you are doing too much chasing.
And that's rather than biding your time as to when to go for the value.

[mug punta]

No doubt at all that Im chasing. Probly need to pull my head in a touch, but, im not doing this as a guide for other punters. Im doing it to test myself and to see how I go over the whole season and to learn more about my punting methods.
I do, however, appreciate feedback like that because it helps you to pull your head in when you need a kick up the butt.
Having said that i was still a bit stiff with the Lions last nite I reckon.
I was very tempted to take the swans with a 20 point start and I should have gone with what my head was telling me.

[Sportz]

You're still nearly 100 in front. There's nothing wrong with that. :)

[moeee]

I do, however, appreciate feedback like that because it helps you to pull your head in when you need a kick up the butt.
Having said that i was still a bit stiff with the Lions last nite I reckon.
I was very tempted to take the swans with a 20 point start and I should have gone with what my head was telling me.

Well that's why I'm here.
And if we are gonna talk after the race,I'm sure if punters check my comments after your tips but before the bounce,they will see that your and my opinion combined would have set them off in good stead!

And here is your kick up the buut Mugsy.
Do ya reckon if you go to the tote and tell Tabatha that you were a bit stiff,any chance you might get a refund?

Kepp 'em in the black son.That's what it's all about!

[mug punta]

OB- $2098

BRIS to win
WEST COAST to win
GEELONG to win

ODDS @ $1.97 FOR $300. This bet is pretty conservative for me as the odds are skinny, but, I honestly expect all 3 to win and this will get me back into the black if they do.

BRIS TO WIN BY 24+
WEST COAST to win by 40+
GEELONG to win by 19+

ODDS @ 7.82 FOR $50

CB- $1748

[Rock Steady]

mugs,
The following link on this web site may be of some use:

www.smartgambler.com.au/afl/intro.html

[moeee]

Any chance this thread can be resurrected Mug Punta?

If not,then thanks very much to Rock Steady.Top Form son!

[mug punta]

OB- $1748.

$150 Essendon to win at $1.92.

CB- $1598.

Also will take a footy quarter quad if tab are betting on it and ht/ft doubles as well.

Cheers all

[Rock Steady]

Good luck with Essendon. I'm on Collingwood - should be a good match.
I will not reply to the moeee post. I'll let all his comments pass through to the keeper.

[Rock Steady]

OB- $1748.

$150 Essendon to win at $1.92.

CB- $1598.

Also will take a footy quarter quad if tab are betting on it and ht/ft doubles as well.

Cheers all

Too good Mug Punta. Collingwood just shocking.

[mug punta]

Essendon are no good, but the Pies are worse!

Both sides are in for long years.
We will both get some terrible hidings this year.

Anyway Closing Balance- $1886. Clawing back slowly

[rabbitz]

St Kilda would have to absolute specials after what i saw today(next week v collingwood at the 'G),If hird is suspended,Brisbane could win and get off the bottom as well.
cheers

[moeee]

I will not reply to the moeee post. I'll let all his comments pass through to the keeper.
Nice to see we have harmony again.
Come back Floydy.Come back Paddy.
It's all good.

[moeee]

Would have to suggest you surely snagged the quarter quad here Mugsy.
Or you changed your mind and didn't play?
200 to 1 wasn't it?

[mug punta]

Thanks mate. Nah, didnt end up taking one, took a ht/ft double but missed the margin at 1/2 time.

Taking a TAB footy quad today and it will be basically something like this

ADEL- 1-60
MELB- 25-73+
GEEL- 1-60
SAINTS- 48- 73 +

Toatal cost- $187.50.
This isnt part of my betting for this thread though.

[mug punta]

Bombed out on the footy quad. The multiple personality Dockers decided to turn up yesterday and actually wanted to play.

Todays plays geelong 1-39 @ $2.4 for $50
Port -17.5 @1.95 for $100
Port 40+ @$4 for $50
Saints 40+, Geelong to win, Port to win @$4.2 for $50

Total Outlay- $250
Closing BALANCE- $ 1636

[moeee]

I don't believe you are putting enough effort into whether you are getting value or not Mugsy.
I see someone who is trying to back a winner.
Bit like Jack Daniels.
Lots of bets for lots of wins but no great increase in the bank balance.

[mug punta]

Dont know that that's right. I only had 1 bet last weekend for 1 win.
I really like the Power today.
I felt they turned a corner last weekend.
The treble is looking for icing on the cake.
I expect the Cats to win, but I expect Bulldogs to have a go, so I reckon 1-39 is the safest bet.
I look at that as a 50-50 chance. I dont think the Cats can lose at home so its either under 39 or over 39. The bulldogs are one of the fittest teams in the comp this year so they dont seem to get pumped. Geelongs forward line is functioning only ok so im taking a calculated risk.
Im interested what others think and if they have suggestions about how to do it better or different. I've said all along im trying to learn.

[mug punta]

What the hell is wrong with Port???
I cant believe the way they played after 1/2 time today. Serious problems!!

Luckily, cats got up by just under 40 points.
CB-$1756.

[moeee]

Port -17.5 @1.95 for $100
Port 40+ @$4 for $50

Of course both of these bets could have occurred,but I would have thought one of them would have been more value than the other and I would have stuck with one or the other.

[mug punta]

Havent had a chance to get on the net today till now. These are my bets for the weekend

Hawthorn to win $75 at odds of $2.70
Hawthorn to beat the spread of 22 points for $75 at $1.90
Fremantle to beat Essendon for $125 at odds of $1.55
Fremantle to beat Essendon by 40+ for $50 at odds of $4.50

CB- $1431

[moeee]

Havent had a chance to get on the net today till now. These are my bets for the weekend

Hawthorn to win $75 at odds of $2.70
Hawthorn to beat the spread of 22 points for $75 at $1.90
Fremantle to beat Essendon for $125 at odds of $1.55
Fremantle to beat Essendon by 40+ for $50 at odds of $4.50

CB- $1431
Can you remind me again Mugsy!
Which bookies let you get on after the race?
I'll have some on the Eagles please.
And the cats @ over 60 points at the spread!

[mug punta]

Some of has interests outside betting mo. if you dont believe me thats fine, but, if you'd like to have alook at my thoughts on this round and my 2 value plays they were posted well before the round started.

[mug punta]

Freo insipid again. Gee it's been a tough year.

CB- $1826

[iamcool]

Never a truer word spoken Mug my man,

Liked Geelong over Carlton - OK
Hawks a chance over Dees - No Miller/Neitz and poor against Crows week before
Kangas, Port and Freo - got rolled
Never know what Brissy gonna' do
Richmond asleep for three 1/4
West Coast only relaible team of 16

I'm stuffed if i know
http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon6.gif

[mug punta]

Carlton have already shortened. Getting on now

Carlton to win odds $2.30 for $170
Carlton 40+ for $30 at odds of $7.5.

CB- $1626